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Mark Gomes

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  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    Strat,

    In this week's PTT Newsletter and Insider, I addressed my thoughts on the company's stock-price action since my initiation. Further, anyone who adheres to my published Methodology (free on PoisedToTriple.com) knew my thoughts beforehand. Highly-recommended reading!

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Apr 14 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    I also speak from a yearly perspective. I've averaged around 40% annually since 1996. Some years are easier than others, but that's challenging to predict (several of my best years included 2000, 2001, and 2007) because I'm just as liable to tell readers to sell it all and begin shorting if the environment seems to dictate it ;)

    As for running money, 1) I'm semi-retired and 2) portfolio management would send me to an early grave...I'm far too dedicated to doing things to the best of my ability (which is why I gave up golf). LOL
    Apr 14 09:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy Moves To Double Your Money In 12 Months [View instapost]
    Thanks for the kind words. At PTT, it's our goal for the free PTT Insider to help subscribers earn enough profits to justify a subscription to our PTT Newsletter.

    We help you make money to help us make money...to help you make more money :)

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    Everyone who follows my teachings knows that I almost always dismiss insider selling, consistent with the teaching of one of my investing heroes, Peter Lynch.

    http://bit.ly/1quYphY

    Indeed, insider buying has a history of positive correlation with future gains, but insider selling does not. It is perhaps the worst thing for investors to look at. That doesn't mean that AERO insiders didn't think the stock was overvalued at the top...but it doesn't meant they did either.

    In other words, insider selling tells us next to nothing. You can Google it or see some of my past writing on the subject for the reasons why. My article on GLUU was a instructive: http://seekingalpha.co... ;)
    Apr 13 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy Moves To Double Your Money In 12 Months [View instapost]
    Babbeone,

    I make it a point to not answer questions regarding my private investment choices. Mainly because I believe I deserve a dividing line between my business and personal life...but also because people are liable to use that information to make a PR spectacle of my personal investments. I'm not a fan of "marketing" stocks. I believe that RESEARCH is king.

    That being said, I also make it a point to strictly adhere to all laws and disclosure rules. Thus, you can assume that I had repurchased shares of HIMX at some point. Whether or not I still own those shares (and how much) is subject to my first comment.

    Hope that helps. Thanks for your readership and your question :)

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Techprecision Are Poised To Triple [View article]
    Well, that's up to the banks...but I applaud your homework and agree that Len is a great guy to have on our side in this situation. I reckon if $5 million were to magically appear in TPCS's bank account, it would increase its market cap by far more than $5 million (which is a big part of the reason why I continue to own the stock). Investing isn't about always being right -- it's about always having the risk/reward ratio strongly in your favor. ;)

    Cheers!

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money On M&A - The Deferred Revenue Factor [View article]
    Bazooka,

    Fortunately, I never got back to a point where I saw a good-enough balance of risk and reward to warrant a position in my picky portfolio.

    Further, I have yet to determine whether the current valuation changes that. Rest assured, if/when I do, I'll inform my PTT Research subscribers ;)

    Cheers!

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    I agree that AERO got "caught up" in the MJ hype (especially when it violated the principles outlined in my published Methodology). However, a great portion of AERO's ascent is more than warranted by its non-MJ-related turnaround.

    I continue to own the stock (and didn't even sell a share before publishing an article pointing out its Methodology violation to my subscribers). I like what they're doing there and love the upside potential. As usual, nothing in my mind changes in a few short months -- because companies don't change as quickly as stocks do.

    As for PHOT and FINRA, I am personally grateful to see much of this silliness end. It's a shame that investors are so easily misled. That being said there are far more legitimate opportunities than frauds (partially because legit opportunities have far more potential for long-term growth and sustainability).

    As always, we should never place a group of companies in the same bucket. Each company merits an individual analysis

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    Bazooka,

    My Seeking Alpha and PTT picks are far from my 10th or 100th ideas. I've been doing this in various forms since the early 90s. If anything, I find that my picking gets better over time (mainly by eliminating more and more mistakes). Such is the case for virtually anything that anyone pursues passionately for decades :) I can only hope that continues as I continue to passionately pursue ever-stronger results.

    ...and, once again, remember: emotions (such as fear) are the enemy of the investor ;)

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    Cheers Schwig,

    FYI, we have nationally-recognized marketing gurus running the ad-show for PTT. Based on the data, each $1 we spend on SA ads brings in enough revenue to increase our research budget by $1.50 (rough numbers, but you get the point). Thus, every time you see an ad, it's a sign that we are allocating more resources to enhancing your product :)

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Apr 13 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    I apologize that I cannot prove to be useful to you. I've only been doing this for 25 years with only a modicum of success...tongue in cheek on both sides of that comment ;^)

    As you may have guessed, I keep a light and joking heart about this. Not every can understand my methods. They can only see the results. I guess my final attempt to reason with you would be this: Go back and see how things played out for ZNGA. Don't just shrug your shoulders or look at a stock chart....REALLY go back -- read the IPO docs, press releases, earnings releases, and see the progression of what happens when a sticky game loses its tack and the developer can't find anything to remotely replace it.

    To be honest, anyone who compares KING to ZNGA WITHOUT doing that is doing the wrong thing. However, I HAVE done the comparisons. I've also done the individual analysis (ignoring ZNGA completely). Both analyses come to the same conclusion. That doesn't make me right -- I'm not always right, but my hit rate is a tad better than average.

    As for physics envy, I'm well aware of the perils of various biases. Indeed, the chaos cannot be modeled...and global business demand is most-certainly subject to the chaotic whims of the homo sapien. I counter with this: http://bit.ly/LkalQ5 :^)-

    Cheers,

    Mark G.

    p.s. PLEASE take my jokes lightheartedly. If you view me as a combatant, instead of a collaborative friend, you will be naturally prone to take the opposite side of my argument regardless of its merit (or lack thereof). This discussion is not you vs me...it's you + me, trying to BOTH end up on the right side of this story.

    From that perspective, I would objectively weight both sides of the argument as if you were an impartial judge.

    My prediction: KING has a great first quarter out the gates before sorely disappointing soon thereafter. My personal addiction to Candy Crush is finally starting to wane after 3 solid weeks of daily play. It is very reminiscent of Farmville and Groupon, which elicited fanatical initial response (novelty will do that), before the sugar rush petered out (pun intended).

    KINDEST REGARDS & BEST OF LUCK IN ALL OF YOUR PURSUITS. :)
    Apr 12 01:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money On M&A - The Deferred Revenue Factor [View article]
    "In conjunction with Datawatch's (DWCH) recently acquisition of Panopticon, we discovered empirical evidence that strongly suggests that shares of DWCH could be in for a rocky ride over the next several quarters."

    Hi All,

    I predicted a rocky ride, but will readily admit that I didn't see this coming. That being said, I have covered software M&A for 20 years, which gave me the experience to know the risks were there. Hopefully, my cautions helped some investors to realize that DWCH's potential rewards also came with higher risks than some believed. Indeed, I do this to save investors from having to learn some lessons the hard way (as I did in the 90s).

    As for DWCH, I will repeat -- they are NOT a rightful comparable to DATA or QLIK (just compare the R&D and/or sales/marketing budgets of DATA and QLIK to the REVENUE of DWCH to get an idea why). Rather, DWCH is a "niche vendor with unique capabilities", which is not a bad thing.

    If investors view and value it as such, the balance of risk/reward will be much more accurately apparent.

    See this week's PTT Newsletter or my free PTT Insider for more.

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Apr 12 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    The views I have shared with PTT subscribers has not changed. See this week's PTT Newsletter and/or the free PTT Insider for details. Cheers!
    Apr 12 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    Littup,

    I highly recommend that you look at the contribution of CC to KING and how many of their average games will need to be developed to replace it. I can see from your response that you haven't modeled this out. I mean absolutely no offense by that. However, it seems to be the case considering that your comparitives are all relative and qualitative.

    Stocks are quantitative and require modeling. You said it yourself: you "care about how much cash CC can make during the lifetime it lasts." Have you modeled that out? I have...and it's a fraction of the value of their market cap. By my calculations, they will need at least two more CC-like home runs (excluding the CC offshoots -- I'm talking about new and different games -- ala Farmville and Angry Birds) in order to begin justifying its valuation.

    I'm just trying to help, but if you won't do the modeling, we can't even have a debate, because model assumptions are the core of valuation analysis. As I assume you know, a company is worth the current value of its future cash flows. So tell me, what does your model tell you about KING's future cash flows?

    My Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Apr 11 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Riding High On AeroGrow [View article]
    Cool. I'm sure you know this, but for the sake of the other readers, a stock is worth the present value of its future cash flows.

    Thus, the key to evaluating the value of a stock is to build a model of predicted future cash flow (using revenue and expense projections). At PTT, we built our AERO model utilizing all available inputs to project revenue...and a discussion with the executive management team to understand the cost requirements to support each additional million of revenue (also known as an operating model).

    There's a lot more to it than that, but learning how to build a simple operating model can go a long way toward understanding a company's "operating leverage" and how that can impact future earnings. It's especially helpful in determining the value of a company that is currently reporting small EPS (and therefore has a seemingly high P/E) or one that is currently unprofitable, but has the operating leverage to quickly turn profitable (as we saw with GLUU last quarter).
    Apr 11 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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