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Mark Gomes  

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  • What If Intermap's Megadeal Slips? [View article]

    A few thoughts:

    First and foremost, there's way too much chatter here for the situation. This stock isn't about being right or wrong -- it's about risk and potential reward.

    IF these deals actually exist (I'm 99.9% sure they are) and IF Intermap closes them (maybe they will; maybe they won't), we have a good idea of what it will mean for the stock (fairly simple math). We also know what it means if the reverse is true (the stock moves toward zero).

    In other words, NOTHING has changed since Day 1. We have a SPECULATIVE situation with 100s% in potential gains and 100% in potential losses... and NOBODY has legally-shareable insight into which way it will turn out.

    So logically, there's nothing to discuss. MITK has the right to "her" opinion on this (as does everyone else). Her FACTS are largely CORRECT, but also well- and long-known. However, her OPINIONS and everyone's responses have no bearing on this matter. Neither "fear mongering" nor "pumping" will change the ultimate outcome, nor the stock's ultimate destination.

    Intermap will either start closing deals or they won't. TO ME, the stock is attractively priced relative to MY CURRENT PERCEPTION of the risk/reward. I have a speculative investment which I feel is appropriate for how I feel about it at this point in time. This is consistent with the rules of my Methodology, which applies to EVERYTHING I write publicly:

    Other than that, the latest earnings call is the latest info with which we have to work:

    ...and that's that.

    From here, you REALLY have two choices:
    1. Own the stock and hope a big deal comes soon
    2. Don't own the stock

    Everything else is out of your (our) control. So, if you choose #1, it may be best to close your eyes and open them a year from now, expecting to have EITHER a total loss or home run.

    Neither should come as a surprise. That's how speculative investments work...


    Mark G.
    Nov 23, 2015. 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Intermap's Megadeal Slips? [View article]
    As always, any updates will be shared with PTT customers as they come in. Aside from that, my last post says it all. I have my position and I'm comfortable with it.

    Further time is best spent finding the next piece for the portfolio.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Intermap's Megadeal Slips? [View article]

    As I've stated before, this isn't a case of being duped or not -- it's a matter of odds. As was the case with Globalstar at 60-cents, my thesis was that the odds and implications of Intermap's success far exceeded the share price. It's similar to getting 5:1 odds on a coin flip. If that assessment is correct, making the bet is right (regardless of how it turns out).

    Personally, I continue to believe that the story is real and simply experiencing delays in achieving escape velocity. This happened with ATTU, totaling three straight quarters of delays / earnings misses... and last I checked, that turned out just fine ;-)

    In short, Shallum said it best: "Patience". Business doesn't happen in days.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Oct 27, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]

    Thanks for the thoughtful dialog. Regarding my picks to triple, I only look for one-third of my picks to triple. Anything we "salvage" on the other two-thirds represents profit. Bankruptcies occur, but are much rarer than 1/3 (approximately 5%... and I almost always get out before they happens).

    The key is assessing the risk, the reward, and the odds of each. For example, if a $5 stock has a 50/50 chance of going to $0 or $25 tomorrow, the stock is actually worth $12.50 and should be bought. To more-accurately assess the risk/reward, I always obtain expert opinion (usually at a substantial, but worthwhile, fee).

    With DLIA, my "experts" were many young ladies. However, I clearly got different (inferior) reads than you did. In hindsight, the best course of action would have been to commission an independent study involving hundreds of demographically relevant children. Live and learn...

    Cheer my friend,

    Mark G,
    Oct 13, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    Nice call, Tim. I'm o.k. with losses, even total ones. It comes with the territory when seeking triples. The math has worked well. The key is to know which picks to treat as speculative (small position). This was one of them.

    That doesn't change the fact that this one didn't work out. Again, nice call.


    Mark G.
    Oct 11, 2015. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Intermap's Megadeal Slips? [View article]

    I always heed feedback, because there is always a LOT of room to elevate one's self. My strengths revolve around analyzing companies and calculating odds to determine which stocks are undervalued. I'm proud of my 6-year public track record and always confident in that capability.

    By comparison, I view everything else as a weakness to be worked on. It's the only way to improve.


    Mark G.
    Oct 4, 2015. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Intermap's Megadeal Slips? [View article]

    Good comments (mostly). Here's my two cents...

    1. Re:GTAT, see My research methodology played no role in GTAT. In fact, the opposite was true (click the link for proof).

    2. "Speculative reliance on the CEO's perspective on reality" is a GREAT way of putting it. This is true to some extent. However, I've followed this company for over five years and never selected it prior to recently. There's a reason for that ;)

    None of this guarantees a positive outcome, but I'm not in the business of making predictions -- I'm in the business of handicapping outcomes and determining whether the associated stock is priced appropriately for the risk/reward.

    This is something that most detractors mess up.

    I'm not arguing whether or not the deal will close. I'm arguing that the odds of it closing are greater than the stock price reflects. Hope that makes sense.

    Thanks for the intelligent commentary.

    p.s. To be clear, the customer / country is my speculation based on independent research. Management hasn't provided any substantive clues in that regard... so, it could be an African nation or Switzerland or anyone else. That's the beauty of great speculative investments -- the harder it is to find hard facts, the greater your advantage if you can narrow things down via hard research.


    Mark G.
    Oct 2, 2015. 03:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermap: Multiple Deals Are Nearing Completion [View article]

    VERY smart points. I thought the same, but it's not so simple. For further edification, I recommend calling Intermap's IR or CFO for an explanation.


    Mark G.
    Sep 9, 2015. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific Is Destroying Equity And Changing Bondholders Into Bagholders [View article]
    I appreciate your understanding, and especially your penchant for due diligence. There are few things I like more in this business than level-headed investors who do their homework (on companies, as well as the analysts who cover them).

    I hope to encounter you again, soon. Cheers, my friend!
    Sep 7, 2015. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific Is Destroying Equity And Changing Bondholders Into Bagholders [View article]

    That's a great question and I respect your interest. However, there are limits to the amount of info we can provide here without breaching our duty to PTT Research and its paying customers.

    Our full analysis and Q&A can are on our websites (PTTResearch and PoisedToTriple). Unfortunately, I have to be lame and draw a freemium line between "free" and "premium" to recoup our six-figure research budget. Sorry for the advertisement, but hopefully, we've provided a good amount of free value via our JAKK articles and comments.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Sep 7, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific Is Destroying Equity And Changing Bondholders Into Bagholders [View article]

    With all due respect to your work, allow me to provide a few friendly / constructive observations:

    1. Your historical perspective should account for one full business cycle (years, if not a decade). See this tweet for what I'm talking about:

    Basically, over the course of their last full business cycle, JAKK became big and built a big infrastructure to support it. When two major brands went awry (a story for another day), the infrastructure lost a lot of revenue, sending net income into the red. They've spent the last few years refilling that hole and the numbers are starting to reflect the business they've been rebuilding over the past few years. In addition, the U.S. economy is finally doing well-enough that toys are back on the upswing.

    FYI, in 2004 (around the time the iPod was released), anyone who judged Apple on its recent history (instead of a full business cycle) missed the fact that it was merely a great company in a down-cycle. JAKK is no Apple, but the parallels are similar in this business (and many many others). I learned this early in my career via the story of IBM rise, fall, and rise in the early 90s.

    Anyways, if you speak to JAKK's CEO, you'll understand his background and expertise. In short, he's done a great job of navigating the down-cycle, restarting the engine, and getting the nose pointed back up.

    2. You cite P/E, but cast EBITDA aside. EBITDA is actually more relevant. Free cash flow is even more so. In that regard, they have more than enough coming in this year to do a lot of things that you claim they can't. Again, speak to management and you'll see that this is true. It will provide greater clarity into their capabilities.

    Hope this is additive to your due diligence.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Sep 4, 2015. 12:00 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares Of Intermap Are Poised To Triple [View article]

    40% annual returns do not require 40% returns every year. For example, the 2013 ROI on my picks were FAR beyond 40%. I also lost 12% in 2002 (which was a win versus the NASDAQ's 31% drubbing) and gained just 27% in 2009 while the NASDAQ rocketed 44%.

    The way you achieve high return is by not being greedy when it is prudent to be conservative... and hitting the accelerator when conditions favor it (like 1997-1999, 2003-2007, and more recently 2013)... and occasionally going short (like 2000, 2001, 2007, and 2008).

    And it all requires patience. For example, I have been extra cautious on the market since last July 3rd (400+ days). For MOST of those 400 days, the market was above those levels, but the recent drop took us well-below those levels. In other words, you could have done better to even collect 1% interest for a year and then jump in last week. That's a lot less work than working hard for 400+ days. But human beings aren't generally wired to think that way...

    ...and therein lies the opportunity.

    I hope that helps. I don't often frequent these boards, but occasionally I make an appearance. It likely time for me to get back to work, so take no offense if any subsequent comments go unanswered. I hope my time here has shown that I care about you and about being reasonably transparent. Indeed, there's a not so fine line between being personal and conducting business. I endeavor to balance the two as best as I can.

    Best Wishes For Investment Success,

    Mark G.
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Intermap's Megadeal And Potential New Verticals [View article]
    To Findangsuman (and all),

    When it comes to the predicting the future, "being right" is exclusively reserved for gods.

    I am not a god. I am an analyst. A handicapper if you will. I am not in the business of predicting that this deal WILL come in on time. However, I do believe that the odds favor it. A few weeks ago I told customers to expect the deal to slip (because these sorts of deals almost always do). However, I have since RESEARCHED the situation more deeply and feel comfortable with the odds. Indeed, not all deals slip. Research helps to figure out which ones have the best chance.

    Stocks are not about being right. This is especially true of binary events. Valuing a stock on the basis of a binary event is all about doing research, estimating the odds, and applying them to the upside and downside risk for the stock. The result is a weighted average of what the stock should trade for.

    It is truly no different than handicapping a sports event or a hand of Texas Hold'em. There's no right or wrong...just math. Over time, consistently well-played odds result in the success of a portfolio of "bets".

    This was the case with Globalstar. At 60-cents, I stated that the company's odds warranted a valuation of $2 (with $4-5 possible in the event of a positive outcome and $0 possible in the event of a negative outcome). Sure enough, the stock went to $2 and beyond. However, though it went to $4.50, I didn't advocate owning it above $2, because the odds didn't warrant it. Notice, this had nothing to do with being right or wrong about the final outcome (which still hasn't been determined for Globalstar). FYI, that stock is now back around $2, a fair value if you ask me (and I am not interested in "fair" values).

    As Shallum astutely states, the stock is likely worth $1+ if/when they close one of these deals and perhaps $2 if they close both (not random numbers -- do the math and build an operating model). Thus, the average upside is about $1.50 while the downside is $0 (conservatively). If you think the odds of losing BOTH deals is 50%, you MUST conclude that the stock is still worth about 75-cents.

    I mean no disrespect, but your comments do not provide anyone with confidence that you have applied this principle. Guessing is not a methodology (even if you are "proven right"). To the contrary, even though most of my predictions come true, I / we never "see who's right".

    We will only see what happens.

    This is not meant only for you. I don't know you. Thus, I don't know if you care about valuation principles. This is meant for anyone who wishes to better understand how to place a value on binary events in the stock market. I hope it helped.

    Best Wishes For Investment Success To All,

    Mark G.
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Intermap's Megadeal And Potential New Verticals [View article]
    Brilliant, right? Love seeing people do their own research by the way. Cheers!
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Intermap's Megadeal And Potential New Verticals [View article]

    There are several issues with your comment:

    1. As I stated, management reiterated its guidance to close this deal on its conference call just two weeks ago:

    This deal has been in the works for over 2 years (over 100 weeks). 9 weeks ago, they said it would be done in less than 14 weeks. 2 weeks ago, they said it would be done in 7 weeks. My contacts have provided other indications, but I only share those with customers.

    2. I think I have an idea -- I have relatives in African government. In fact, my mother is over there now ;)

    I think it's GREAT that you question my research. You SHOULD. It's your money. HOWEVER, making a public statement like that without doing the research to confirm or refute your skepticism risks making a smart person making a smart decision (to question my research) look like a not-so-smart person making statements without any backing.

    I'm always happy to have new smart people researching my picks alongside me, so I hope you're the former and not the latter. I am optimistic ;)

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment