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Mark Gomes

 
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  • Short Blackberry (After It Doubles) [View article]
    That's right Michael. In addition, there are steps that can be taken to ensure one's shares can not be borrowed on an ongoing basis.

    BTW, I've read your work. Kudos on your innovative approach to primary research. It's been additive to our data points and short thesis.

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    May 5, 2013. 10:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double [View article]
    Our basis was 1) primary and secondary research and 2) our desire to hand bearish investors every debatable argument. Our thinking -- we wanted to value the company under the assumption that we should cede every debatable argument. If it still seemed undervalued under those conditions, we'd know we have a winner...

    ...and we believe we do.
    Apr 28, 2013. 11:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Glass Coming Early - Shares Of Himax Are Poised To Triple [View article]
    Lumia,

    That's a smart attitude to take. It's important to know who you're dealing with and equally important to do your own homework. Personally, I pride myself on the reputation I've built here, starting with my first pick (LIOX) in 2009: http://bit.ly/Z4Umwp

    That stock became a five-bagger over the next 15-months with no promotion or additional articles from yours truly. That inspired the "Poised to Triple" concept -- identifying stocks with a great risk/reward profile and the potential to triple. As you can see here -- http://bit.ly/I2XgJ1 -- not every pick will triple, but my track record has been pretty good.

    I wasn't as active in 2012, due to training for a Track & Field world record and authoring a book for charity (see http://bit.ly/107hDk6 for the details). As you can see, I'm a modestly public person with a lot to lose if I squander my reputation (sponsorships, book sales, public humiliation, and my company Pipeline Data).

    With the athletic and charitable pursuits behind me, I'm looking forward to reestablishing myself and proving my mettle, especially to justifiably skeptical investors such as yourself.

    Hope I measure up...and hope you follow me long enough to find out. ;^)

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G,
    Mar 4, 2013. 11:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    It's just a day. The bears are preying on fear and shaken confidence. As for my confidence, GLUU has done nothing but beat quarters on my watch. That's how I judge myself -- by how well my picks execute against expectations.

    So, if GLUU misses the Street's $85M revenue estimate, I'll have to eat my hat. But I think it's more likely that they top the estimate by $5M or more, FWIW.
    Oct 8, 2014. 05:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Glu Mobile [View article]
    Spec,

    To be fair, their official numbers are at their web site http://bit.ly/14LalTm. 1% annually over the past 5 years and 5% annually since inception.

    That's not bad for a Long-Short portfolio (much better than the risk-free benchmark). They get some right and some wrong. I can't comment on their specific research process (it clearly works to an extent), but someone there clearly doesn't understand Glu's business model.

    I get the sense that David prides himself on his work (they have a quality site), so perhaps they will revisit and realize that Glu's long term business model is more like Activision's and less like King Digital's.

    For Glu, it's all about the game ROI, gaming engines, sequels, monetization science, and of course M&A. In other words, their facts are not incorrect, just their opinion, due to focusing on less important aspects of the story.

    I'd welcome a discussion with David if he sees fit. Until then, I respect his opinion. I don't always get it right, so all opinions are valid until proven right or wrong.

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu extends Kardashian license to 2019 [View news story]
    Thanks for the kudos All-Star :)

    It's nice to see the fundamentals continuing to press ever-forward. Regardless of the stock's volatility, the overall trajectory remains positive (we initiated coverage at $3). I spoke to the CFO today and will provide my update to subscribers at PTTResearch.com

    As always, you can also sign up for my free newsletter at poisedtotriple.com

    Cheers,

    Mark G.
    Sep 5, 2014. 05:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    Jill,

    Just so you know that I'm not afraid to say it -- As a 10 bagger or bust, TPCS was most certainly 100% a BUST.

    Keep in mind that if one 10BorB goes +1000%, it makes up for nine busts. Accordingly, you should expect over 50% of 10BorB plays to go bust.

    Of course, having followed me for some time, I'm confident that you know this from having read my Methodology -- otherwise, I would question why you would waste your time following me after your long history of discontentment. Certainly, faith in the Methodology would be the only logical reason.

    Having read my Methodology, you are clearly aware of how to approach 10BorB picks. Specifically, they are not official PTT Portfolio picks. This has been the case for each of the 5+ years I have been on Seeking Alpha. Rather, they represent opportunities that merit consideration for a SMALL position in case they triple, but that decision should be made by the individual, with commensurate credit (or blame) for gains (or losses).

    Simultaneously to its unofficial status as a 10BorB, TPCS was initiated as an official Speculative pick to triple when it prematurely dropped to 40-cents. It tripled to $1.20, sparking automatic graduation.

    Mind you, I'm not "proud" of this pick, but the manner in which we played it (10BorB, followed by official status at a oversold level) is EXACTLY why the Methodology was created. It enabled students of the Methodology to profit from a situation that has ultimately failed.

    But of course, having read the Methodology, you know that too... I hope.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.

    p.s. This is not directed at you, but it should be stated that I have NO sympathy for those who do not read the Methodology. I receive no compensation for my time on Seeking Alpha (versus the $2,000-3,000 an hour I command from institutions).

    Why would I forego a few extra hours at $2,000-3,000/hour to help mistrustful (and even belligerent) investors? Because I must. God blessed me beyond my worthiness, so it is only fair that I provide some charitable service (Seeking Alpha, coaching children, and donating time to the community) in thanks.

    However, if I give away blenders and you stick you hand inside instead of reading the instruction manual, guilt lies not with me.

    I do all I can... and those efforts have resulted in 40,000+ followers and $millions in paying customers (which pay the salaries of numerous employees and dozens of industry consultants -- another benefit, for which I am proud). The majority of those customers understand the Methodology and profit from it. Of course, with 40,000+ followers, if 99% love me, that still leaves hundreds who don't.

    I accept that burden for the thousands who do. Indeed, for all of God's blessing bestowed upon me, I can't help those who won't help themselves.

    Good fortune to you all. ~MG
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Poised To Climb 50% By Year-End [View article]
    Hi All,

    Mark is silent because Mark is on vacation :)

    However, before GLUU announced earnings, I provided a 30 minute update video to PTT customers which NAILED virtually every aspect of the GLUU call, including the risk of a decline in the shares, alluding to selling call options as protection.

    I'm up 6-figures on those positions today, almost completely offsetting my loss on the stock. This enabled me to raise my net exposure by 50,000 shares this morning at a much cheaper price. Meanwhile, GLUU was picked for PTT subscribers at $3.14 and is still $5.78.

    The video remains my latest view of the company. Thus, PTT subscribers have my latest thoughts, as they should.

    In short, as a disciple of the PTT Methodology, I'm VERY happy with today's action. If you haven't read the Methodology (which is FREE to the public), you probably don't know what I'm talking about. If you have read it (and especially if you subscribe to PTT), you know exactly what I'm talking about.

    In other words, those who have helped themselves are informed. Thus, all is right in the world. If time permits, I'll provide another video for customers later today.

    Back to my vaca :)

    Kindest Regards from the French Riviera!

    Mark G.
    Jul 31, 2014. 10:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Well, to be honest, I had NO idea that Kim K would be a success. None.

    I invested in the company because of its strategy and ability to execute against it. I followed the company for several years before pulling the trigger. The strategy wasn't fully-baked until Sept/Oct of last year.

    That was just 9 months ago. They're just getting started.

    Of course, most investors don't even read my research, much less talk to companies about their strategy. Too many people think that stocks are about charts and who writes the loudest article. This is why most of them fail as investors (which saddens me).

    I think investor should have to pass a test before being allowed to buy a "trading-platform".

    This is why finding good longs and shorts is easier than ever.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile's Q3 Revenue Could Double The Consensus View [View article]
    I was asked a question above that I'm reporting here for all to more-easily see:

    "I discuss questions like this in our Members' Forum at PTTResearch. For the purposes of this forum suffice it to say that a game-maker's valuation should be based not by the games they make, but by the fundamental capabilities it has to deliver a growing number of good games on a sustainable basis.

    For example, though Electronic Arts has many hits come and go, their fundamental strategy made them grow in most years, which made the stock a profitable purchase in every year of its existence until the onset of the smart phone revolution."

    In other words, my ownership of GLUU stock is not based on the Kim K game (nor was it based on Deer Hunter before that) -- it's based on the company's fundamental strategy, which I have monitored for years and recently reviewed in a live face to face with GLUU's CFO.

    In short, I will own this stock long after the Kim K game is a distant memory.

    That's a seemingly foreign concept in this day and age... but that's why Warren became a multi-billionaire while most investors never even become a millionaire. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 17, 2014. 11:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Hi All,

    A few thoughts...

    1. TMZ is the source and they said "45% of NET PROFITS". http://bit.ly/1rsymZy

    2. No matter what, GLUU would never give anyone 45% of gross revenue. They have to pay 30% to the app stores and invest 20% into marketing. Throw in 5-10% for development / overhead and that leaves zero (or less).

    3. As great as the Kim K game is for GLUU's current fortunes, my last article explains why they can be expected to create many more hit games in the future than they do now. http://bit.ly/1rsymZz

    Personally, I think the $85M hype is great news for GLUU. If I was a celeb and heard about this, I'd be screaming at my agent to strike the next deal. Who wouldn't want their own video game AND $85M (or even $20M)? That's more than A-list movie star money for a lot less work.

    Imagine what you would do if you were the CEO of GLUU... then assume he's doing more than that. It's a good exercise for assessing a company's future potential. Remember, making big $$ on stocks is all about owning companies BEFORE their future and success is obvious to the masses.

    Have a great night,

    Mark G.
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Pumps,

    As someone who abhors pumpers, I appreciate your mission greatly. However, I suggest that you take a look at my track record and credentials before casting libelous allegations.

    Further, the value of a company is the discounted value of future cash flows, not historical results. By your reckoning, Apple would have been a short in 2004 and ditto for FB in 2013.

    Indeed, watch what happens to GLUU's earnings in the near-future (Q3). To me it is clear that it may already be profitable with 2+ months to go. The math is out there to be calculated.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Jul 16, 2014. 03:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picks To Triple In A Correction [View article]
    B&H,

    I'm not one to cast stones, because I'm not perfect. However, I believe the resistance you are experiencing from the other readers stems from your exposing yourself by pinning HIMX on me. It tells them that you haven't read (or don't understand) my Methodology or graduation rules (especially since HIMX's graduation was publicly announced on Seeking Alpha).

    Since you seem like a smart investor, I assume it's the latter. However, as an intelligent person, I'm sure you know that entering a debate without doing all your research (like buying a stock) is a sure way to make one's self look less intelligent than they are...even if you're 100% right.

    If you wish to be my mortal enemy, I respect your God-given freedom to do so. But if that's your choice, be a great one and research EVERYTHING about my 20 year history as a stock picker and a person, so you don't invite rebuttals or attacks yourself.

    Nothing is private in my life (because the only way to gain trust in this day and age is to show up defenseless). It's all there to be seen on Google and my website. ALL of my articles are accessible to hundreds of paying members. Most of them are available to my thousands of readers. You can uncover the depths of my human flaws and decide if they are as bad (or worse) than you currently believe.

    Indeed, you will find many flaws and many bad picks. I admit it...I often fail. However, I do not lie. If you wish, I will pay for half a plane ticket to Miami (if you're not already here) to come, sign an NDA, rummage through my tax returns, and go through my complete library of articles.

    If it will ease your mind, I'm happy to have you. After all, who better to expose my guilt or admit their error than my greatest detractors...

    My Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    May 21, 2014. 01:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attunity's Maestro Promises To Make Sweet Music (And Money) [View article]
    Enphlight,

    Here are a few comments to assist in your mindset as an investor:

    1. What's the difference between 7.1M and 7.2M? Perhaps one $100K deal that gets signed on April 2 instead of March 31? To me, this is NOTHING in the grans scheme of things. FYI, one analyst said 7.05 and the other said 7.35, so no matter what, 7.1 or 7.2 "beat" one guy's number and "missed" the other. To me, NEITHER matters. Who are these guys and why should we let them interfere with our view of our investment's longer-term opportunity?

    Frankly, I pick stocks where I think I know at least as much as the sell-side guy(s). This is why I tend to avoid larger companies. Question -- would you rather go by the opinion of a professional whose money is where his mouth is...or a sell-side analyst, whose primary job is to generate commission revenue for his employer (a brokerage firm)?

    Catch my drift?

    2. "That seems a bit lofty to me considering their 2013 numbers" is a dangerous statement (though you followed it up with a GREAT statement regarding Hayes and Maestro). Indeed, Apple's 2004 numbers looked lofty considering their 2003 numbers. Lionsgate's 2012 numbers looked lofty considering their 2011 numbers. Ditto for STX.

    Triple, triple, and triple.

    In other words, NEVER underestimate the power of small changes. Past results are no indication of future performance. The future must be judged on the basis of the most recent (PRESENT) situation, not the past. If past shortcomings still exist in the present, that is relevant. However, past shortcomings don't necessarily indicate future ones. I know ATTU's past shortcomings and have assessed how much of that remains. I also look at customer demand trends (via surveys with industry experts) and upcoming product offerings.

    For example, 1) ATTU's 2013 sales issues were greatly cleaned up, as evidenced by Q4 and Q1 results, 2) Maestro will contribute to revenues this year. It didn't exist last year. 3) the Big Data market will be 30-40% bigger this year.

    So, what does 2013 have to do with 2014?

    Bottom Line: There are two types of investors -- the lemmings and the leaders. The lemmings rely on charts and P/E ratios. The leaders evaluate where an industry is going and assess what how a company is positioned to profit (or fail) as a result.

    Which one sounds more likely to have an impact on the company's stock price over the course of 1-3 years?

    While you consider the answer, remember: 70% of traders lose money, proving my strong belief that charts are simply a helpful tool for people with "leader" knowledge. Also, you may have already seen it, but I wrote an article awhile back proving that P/E ratios are B.S.

    Lemming or leader? You decide...

    Cheers!

    Mark G.

    p.s. Not that it matters, but it was $7.2M ;)
    May 3, 2014. 02:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Another Quarter, Another Blowout [View article]
    Hi,

    Those are good and valid short-term points, but I don't deal in relatively-small (parental controls) or short-term (Q2) issues. Over the long-haul, the money is made on big-picture issues. In this case, the most significant points are 1) mobile gaming growth is very high, 2) GLUU is one of a very few number of mobile gaming companies that knows how to profit, and 3) they are starting to acquire companies that don't know how to monetize their games...and monetizing their games.

    By comparison, nothing else matters unless you're a short-term trader. If you are, your points are valid, but I would argue that it's all baked into the stock (down 20-25% from its high).

    Great points though. Thanks for the feedback.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    May 1, 2014. 03:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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