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Mark Gomes  

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  • Glu Mobile's Q3 Revenue Could Double The Consensus View [View article]
    I was asked a question above that I'm reporting here for all to more-easily see:

    "I discuss questions like this in our Members' Forum at PTTResearch. For the purposes of this forum suffice it to say that a game-maker's valuation should be based not by the games they make, but by the fundamental capabilities it has to deliver a growing number of good games on a sustainable basis.

    For example, though Electronic Arts has many hits come and go, their fundamental strategy made them grow in most years, which made the stock a profitable purchase in every year of its existence until the onset of the smart phone revolution."

    In other words, my ownership of GLUU stock is not based on the Kim K game (nor was it based on Deer Hunter before that) -- it's based on the company's fundamental strategy, which I have monitored for years and recently reviewed in a live face to face with GLUU's CFO.

    In short, I will own this stock long after the Kim K game is a distant memory.

    That's a seemingly foreign concept in this day and age... but that's why Warren became a multi-billionaire while most investors never even become a millionaire. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 17, 2014. 11:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Hi All,

    A few thoughts...

    1. TMZ is the source and they said "45% of NET PROFITS". http://bit.ly/1rsymZy

    2. No matter what, GLUU would never give anyone 45% of gross revenue. They have to pay 30% to the app stores and invest 20% into marketing. Throw in 5-10% for development / overhead and that leaves zero (or less).

    3. As great as the Kim K game is for GLUU's current fortunes, my last article explains why they can be expected to create many more hit games in the future than they do now. http://bit.ly/1rsymZz

    Personally, I think the $85M hype is great news for GLUU. If I was a celeb and heard about this, I'd be screaming at my agent to strike the next deal. Who wouldn't want their own video game AND $85M (or even $20M)? That's more than A-list movie star money for a lot less work.

    Imagine what you would do if you were the CEO of GLUU... then assume he's doing more than that. It's a good exercise for assessing a company's future potential. Remember, making big $$ on stocks is all about owning companies BEFORE their future and success is obvious to the masses.

    Have a great night,

    Mark G.
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile Set To Owe Kim Kardashian $85 Million? [View article]
    Pumps,

    As someone who abhors pumpers, I appreciate your mission greatly. However, I suggest that you take a look at my track record and credentials before casting libelous allegations.

    Further, the value of a company is the discounted value of future cash flows, not historical results. By your reckoning, Apple would have been a short in 2004 and ditto for FB in 2013.

    Indeed, watch what happens to GLUU's earnings in the near-future (Q3). To me it is clear that it may already be profitable with 2+ months to go. The math is out there to be calculated.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Jul 16, 2014. 03:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picks To Triple In A Correction [View article]
    B&H,

    I'm not one to cast stones, because I'm not perfect. However, I believe the resistance you are experiencing from the other readers stems from your exposing yourself by pinning HIMX on me. It tells them that you haven't read (or don't understand) my Methodology or graduation rules (especially since HIMX's graduation was publicly announced on Seeking Alpha).

    Since you seem like a smart investor, I assume it's the latter. However, as an intelligent person, I'm sure you know that entering a debate without doing all your research (like buying a stock) is a sure way to make one's self look less intelligent than they are...even if you're 100% right.

    If you wish to be my mortal enemy, I respect your God-given freedom to do so. But if that's your choice, be a great one and research EVERYTHING about my 20 year history as a stock picker and a person, so you don't invite rebuttals or attacks yourself.

    Nothing is private in my life (because the only way to gain trust in this day and age is to show up defenseless). It's all there to be seen on Google and my website. ALL of my articles are accessible to hundreds of paying members. Most of them are available to my thousands of readers. You can uncover the depths of my human flaws and decide if they are as bad (or worse) than you currently believe.

    Indeed, you will find many flaws and many bad picks. I admit it...I often fail. However, I do not lie. If you wish, I will pay for half a plane ticket to Miami (if you're not already here) to come, sign an NDA, rummage through my tax returns, and go through my complete library of articles.

    If it will ease your mind, I'm happy to have you. After all, who better to expose my guilt or admit their error than my greatest detractors...

    My Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    May 21, 2014. 01:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attunity's Maestro Promises To Make Sweet Music (And Money) [View article]
    Enphlight,

    Here are a few comments to assist in your mindset as an investor:

    1. What's the difference between 7.1M and 7.2M? Perhaps one $100K deal that gets signed on April 2 instead of March 31? To me, this is NOTHING in the grans scheme of things. FYI, one analyst said 7.05 and the other said 7.35, so no matter what, 7.1 or 7.2 "beat" one guy's number and "missed" the other. To me, NEITHER matters. Who are these guys and why should we let them interfere with our view of our investment's longer-term opportunity?

    Frankly, I pick stocks where I think I know at least as much as the sell-side guy(s). This is why I tend to avoid larger companies. Question -- would you rather go by the opinion of a professional whose money is where his mouth is...or a sell-side analyst, whose primary job is to generate commission revenue for his employer (a brokerage firm)?

    Catch my drift?

    2. "That seems a bit lofty to me considering their 2013 numbers" is a dangerous statement (though you followed it up with a GREAT statement regarding Hayes and Maestro). Indeed, Apple's 2004 numbers looked lofty considering their 2003 numbers. Lionsgate's 2012 numbers looked lofty considering their 2011 numbers. Ditto for STX.

    Triple, triple, and triple.

    In other words, NEVER underestimate the power of small changes. Past results are no indication of future performance. The future must be judged on the basis of the most recent (PRESENT) situation, not the past. If past shortcomings still exist in the present, that is relevant. However, past shortcomings don't necessarily indicate future ones. I know ATTU's past shortcomings and have assessed how much of that remains. I also look at customer demand trends (via surveys with industry experts) and upcoming product offerings.

    For example, 1) ATTU's 2013 sales issues were greatly cleaned up, as evidenced by Q4 and Q1 results, 2) Maestro will contribute to revenues this year. It didn't exist last year. 3) the Big Data market will be 30-40% bigger this year.

    So, what does 2013 have to do with 2014?

    Bottom Line: There are two types of investors -- the lemmings and the leaders. The lemmings rely on charts and P/E ratios. The leaders evaluate where an industry is going and assess what how a company is positioned to profit (or fail) as a result.

    Which one sounds more likely to have an impact on the company's stock price over the course of 1-3 years?

    While you consider the answer, remember: 70% of traders lose money, proving my strong belief that charts are simply a helpful tool for people with "leader" knowledge. Also, you may have already seen it, but I wrote an article awhile back proving that P/E ratios are B.S.

    Lemming or leader? You decide...

    Cheers!

    Mark G.

    p.s. Not that it matters, but it was $7.2M ;)
    May 3, 2014. 02:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile: Another Quarter, Another Blowout [View article]
    Hi,

    Those are good and valid short-term points, but I don't deal in relatively-small (parental controls) or short-term (Q2) issues. Over the long-haul, the money is made on big-picture issues. In this case, the most significant points are 1) mobile gaming growth is very high, 2) GLUU is one of a very few number of mobile gaming companies that knows how to profit, and 3) they are starting to acquire companies that don't know how to monetize their games...and monetizing their games.

    By comparison, nothing else matters unless you're a short-term trader. If you are, your points are valid, but I would argue that it's all baked into the stock (down 20-25% from its high).

    Great points though. Thanks for the feedback.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    May 1, 2014. 03:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu? [View article]
    I also speak from a yearly perspective. I've averaged around 40% annually since 1996. Some years are easier than others, but that's challenging to predict (several of my best years included 2000, 2001, and 2007) because I'm just as liable to tell readers to sell it all and begin shorting if the environment seems to dictate it ;)

    As for running money, 1) I'm semi-retired and 2) portfolio management would send me to an early grave...I'm far too dedicated to doing things to the best of my ability (which is why I gave up golf). LOL
    Apr 14, 2014. 09:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divergent Prevails; Lions Gate Stock On The Mend [View article]
    Sitting in a theater full of 13 year old girls wasn't my idea of an ideal Thursday night, but it paid off with a correct analysis and a nice profit today :)
    Mar 24, 2014. 01:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple [View article]
    The weak numbers were pre-announced weeks ago, so the numbers were not new news. The only new news last night was word of their progress. If you listened to the call you received important quantitative data regarding their inventory, along with an update on the turnaround efforts.

    If you did not listen to the call (or at least read the transcript), you don't have that information and are likely reacting to the stock's movement or other people's reactions (many of whom also weren't on the call).

    Just sayin'...

    Other than that, D Chef (above) has the right idea. You can believe in Gardner and her team or not. If you do, the proper action is to let them do their job and realize that you can't change an entire 100-store retail chain overnight (especially in the midst of the winter folks have had in the north). If you don't have the patience or trust to see things through, the proper action is NOT to hope for a quick turnaround, but rather to focus on other stocks.

    I pick 'em when they're cheap for a reason. Some fail, but most work...and most of those double, triple, or get acquired. To invest with my method you have to take the good with the bad. There's no choice in that. After all, if I knew which of my picks would fail, I'd be right 100% of the time ;)

    You can read more here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Win or lose, I'm sticking with Tracy Gardner & crew.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    Mar 21, 2014. 12:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pixelworks: Peeling Back The Apple Relationship And Assessing Largest Shareholder's Planned Stock Sale [View article]
    For the record, I always like Sam's dedication to due diligence (and fire)!

    However, I disagree that the selling is relevant. In fact, the same exact set-up occurred at GLUU just a couple months ago. Hany Nada (founding partner of GGV Capital) set up a selling plan, while company execs set up their 10b5-1s.

    Massive selling ensued in January and February. I took a lot of heat and the stock fell for weeks...BEFORE they ripped the cover off the Q4 earnings ball. The stock popped 33% and has continued higher in the weeks since.

    Peter Lynch said it decades ago, yet investors continue to look for exceptions: "There are many reasons why insiders sell a stock, but only one reason why they buy." In other words, insider selling is an unreliable data point. Anyone who wishes to debate that should call Peter Lynch. As for me, I've made my career by adhering to the sage words of gurus like Mr. Lynch, so you won't catch me doing anything but shaking his hand in gratitude.

    Hmmm...methinks that'll make a few fine paragraphs for an article. :)

    Again, I love Sam's intelligence (we respectfully match wits at times with mutually beneficial results). His baseband argument merits further discussion. For sure, it's a potentially limiting factor, but not detrimental one relative to the company's growing prospects. I'm sure he'll agree that the key here is to weigh all available data and figure out exactly how much of the mobile market they can address despite not having baseband integration (and the odds that someone acquires them to integrate their leading IP, thus creating a best-of-breed design).

    Which brings me to another mentor's sage words: "Avoid shorting a company with rising fundamentals. Valuations can be grown into and acquirers can leave short sellers in pain".

    I congratulate those who saw the risk/reward supply/demand opportunity to play the pullback, but this remains (IMHO) the finest acquisition candidate in the video processing space. The stock certainly got ahead of itself, but that doesn't mean I want to take the chance of being caught on the wrong side of a buyout (which often come with trendline-busting premiums).

    Enjoy your weekend everyone!

    Mark G.
    Mar 8, 2014. 11:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Insiders Not Sticking With Their Stock [View article]
    Rockie,

    First, let me apologize for coming across so negatively. That was not my intent. However, I have to think you're capable of more than what you did here. Your opinion of Deer Hunter is 100% valid. I disagree with it, but you are 100% entitled to your opinion...and I would never disparage you for that.

    The problem I have is the irresponsible title, which you countered by rightfully discussing the 10b5-1 program involved with the selling. FYI, I know one of the sellers and why he is selling...and it's not because he's bearish. 10b5-1's usually enable insiders to diversify their wealth, which is ALWAYS prudent. I love this stock, but I'm not going to put more than 20% of my net worth into it. Does that make me bearish? If I inherited an additional 20%, would I be bearish for selling it to bring my holdings back down to a prudent level? BTW, this is well-known and long-held be Wall Street professionals. In fact, it's been public knowledge since Peter Lynch's book from 20+ years back. This is why I called your professionalism into question.

    Finally, to not discuss the GluOn / GaaS / monetization platform is completely irresponsible. The entire GLUU investment story revolves around it...and Deer Hunter is just one proof point. If you don't understand the platform and how it works, you don't understand the company. Accordingly, I think we can both agree that a professional analyst shouldn't release an analysis without having a full understanding of the key investment pillar.

    Again, my apologies for tone and kindest regards,

    Mark G.
    Jan 23, 2014. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Expanding Ecosystem Will Help These Stocks Triple [View article]
    Whiners,

    Great question. The answer is simple -- early access and exclusive access to stock-moving information. Hundreds of Seeking Alpha readers became PTT Research subscribers in our first month, despite our presence on Seeking Alpha.

    If you're just getting started or don't have much to invest with, I'm here on SeekingAlpha. However, those who seek greater returns will tell you that even a lifetime subscription to my service pays for itself...often in less than a month.

    In other words, if being here was bad for business (or our members), we wouldn't do it ;)

    Cheers!

    Mark G.
    Jan 6, 2014. 02:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 52-week highs for Pixelworks following display processor deal [View news story]
    Nice way to end the first week of 2014 :) Another winning pick brought to you by PTT Research (http://bit.ly/16A0VsL and http://bit.ly/1dx52ZG)!
    Jan 3, 2014. 06:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The Downgrade - Glu Is Still Poised To Triple [View article]
    Technically, the stock has been consolidating in the form of a bullish wedge. It just bounced off the 50 day moving average and a break above $4.15 will give it a quick and clear path toward $6.

    Beyond that, the next stop is $10.
    Dec 27, 2013. 12:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Week In Review: Bears Take An Unsuccessful Swipe [View article]
    Piston,

    I believe most institutions are taking a wait and see attitude. The Z-10 is losing steam and the Q-10 is unproven. Most institutions don't have access to the pre-release demand data that has given us confidence in BBRY prospects for the remainder of 2013.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark G.
    May 12, 2013. 02:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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