Majesco's Zumba: Building Momentum At Target And GameStop [View article]
Your sentiment is echoed by many, which pleases me (as someone looking for the right moment to increase my position).
1) The company expenses social gaming costs as they are incurred and that budget is already fixed at $4-5M for this year. Also, I am expecting $zero from the social business. Anything more will be a nice surprise. Thus, I probably have lower expectations and therefore lower concerns than you in this regard (I don't think there's anything wrong with either way of thinking about it though).
2) Rather, I'm eyeing their tighter focus on quality games. This will decrease wasted development costs this year. The proof is already clear on the balance sheet -- witness the huge 3-month drop in capitalized software development costs (from 12.6M to 4.2M). Big move.
3) If word gets out that NBA looks like a hit, the stock might take off before I can figure out who saw what and react. That being said, I wouldn't be taking my chances except for the fact that Zumba seems to be holding down the fort.
Right or wrong, that's my thinking on remaining long. I certainly respect your thinking as well. We'll soon see how it all turns out...
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
gschm319,
I still own LGF, so obviously I believe there is still more reward than risk in the stock. How the movie opens will determine whether I buy more, hold, or sell.
Either way, one cannot argue that the risk is higher now, because the stock has risen tremendously in a short span. Most people already know that the movie is going to kill it in the first weekend -- tickets are already sold out in 1000+ locations. What we don't know is if the movie is good enough to go viral and have long legs beyond the first couple of weeks. At this level, that is what is needed to justify a jump to $20.
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
TOTALLY agree, J.A...but you hit the nail on the head regarding time (and don't forget expertise). Most people don't have a lot of time to do research or financial training to analyze valuations.
Mine is one of many (including yours) good methods. Mine just happens to focus on minimizing risk, time, and expertise requirements.
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
The proper edits have been made. Most notably, LF and LGF have not been added to my portfolio of stocks that are poised to triple. LGF has been a good investment, but is unlikely to triple. LF certainly has the potential to triple, but it needs a little more work before I'm ready to say that it's poised to do so.
Majesco Poised To Beat Street Estimates On Monday Night [View article]
Wiesemc,
I believe the stock is very undervalued, but I'm not a technical analyst, so I can't say if this is a better time to buy than any other.
When I complete an analysis, if I like the risk/reward, I buy right away. If the stock drops, I double check my work and buy more. As long as I'm right, I'm actually happy when the stock drops, because I ultimately end up with a much bigger position...and therefore more profits when it gets to fair value :^)
Majesco Poised To Beat Street Estimates On Monday Night [View article]
Erik,
I agree with many of you points. However, I disagree that criticism is how you learn...research and experience is how you learn.
I've been on SeekingAlpha for many years and in the private sector as an investment analyst since 1994. I've learned from many mistakes and will continue to do so. I'm certainly not perfect, but nor am I a pumper. I think my track record bears that out.
Your eloquence indicates that you're very intelligent. As such, please don't take it as adversarial when I suggest that you could serve the investing public better if you shifted your focus from criticism to research (and perhaps becoming a SeekingAlpha contributor yourself).
As for me, I'm not here to offer buy and sell notifications. I'm simply here to share information and let the readers decide what to do with it, just as I do with Pipeline Data's institutional clients (who don't traffic in microcap stocks like this, FYI).
Kindest Regards,
Mark G.
p.s. Regarding my $20 comment, I've written about COOL many times and that was the first specific mention of its long-term potential (and it was only a comment, not a part of the article). That number didn't come out of the air, but via modelling its opportunity.
Too often, people fail to see the forest for the trees. If Majesco shows progress toward the opportunity I see before it, $20 is most definitely within reason. If you have a model that shows a lower ceiling, I'd love to see it -- I'd rather find out that I'm wrong before I end up poor! Cheers ;^)
Get Mark's real-time stock updates for free by texting the words FOLLOW BOSTONGEKKO to 40404. _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
Wieseme,
I think focusing on fitness games is BRILLIANT. Exercise DVDs was a huge 15-year wave...and that came after exercise video tapes, which was a decade-long wave of its own.
With interactive exercise now transitioning to the video game medium, Majesco appears to be taking the bull by the horns. Zumba is its only mega-hit, but it's not its own hit. Jillian Michaels has been a nice money maker as well (and Harley Pasternak may be next).
The big difference this time around is that VCR tapes and DVDs were easy to make. Video games aren't. This gives COOL a big advantage, as major players like EA focus on $100M monsters and fitness crazes like Zumba seek an experienced partner to bring their brands into the video game era.
It's the ground floor of a major new wave. We'll see how COOL responds. If they succeed, the stock could easily find its way to 20+. If not, I'm only risking a few bucks a share on a company that will like have over $1 on cash before long.
Shares Of Seagate Technology Could Triple In The Wake Of Thailand Floods [View article]
Monsieur,
Many thanks for the kind words. I try my best and feel humbled that I can assist others in their financial pursuits. Hopefully, I can continue to assist in the months and years to come.
As for STX, I continue to hold the stock because 1) if the market continues upward, STX should follow suit and 2) if the economy weakens, STX should continue to do well, based on the constrained supply of HDDs and the fixed-price contracts they secured.
My view hasn't changed. The retail business should be heavily discounted. The chip could still be a big winner, but it's still a ways off. As I last wrote, I still own some shares, but am not a fan of being heavily invested in a company stuck in the "wait time" phase. It's usually better to buy when we're closer to an event...or even paying up once it has been actually announced.
Shares Of Majesco May Be Getting Ready For Another 300% Move [View article]
Hi Erik,
You're entitled to your opinion, so I respect that. However, I've built a track record based on fundamental analysis, with a focus on near- to intermediate-term catalysts. The latest update to my performance can be found here: http://bit.ly/rKkrcJ
I understand your point regarding the multiple article submissions. However, the company is at a critical juncture which warranted a discussion of various subject matters. I could have written a multi-part report, but this way was easier to process through the SeekingAlpha system.
As far as the "benefits" of being a SeekingAlpha contributor, you could say that about every contributor, which is a little unfair without qualification, no? On the flip side, my methodology and analyses are all well-documented for all to see. I'm not always right, but I'm always honest in my assessments.
As someone with more of a mind for numbers than marketing, I have nothing more than my reputation to lean on. Again, I respect your right to refute my claims, heckle me when I'm wrong, or even call me an idiot, but I'd ask that you consider my full body of work before casting accusations.
Feel free to start with COOL. If they don't beat the current estimates of $54M, I'll eat plenty of humble pie (wouldn't be the first time).
I can only reiterate what I have written here. I can't speak to Mr. Ledbed's credentials, but I've been a software investment consultant to the mutual fund and hedge fund industry since 1994. I knew Broadvision long before it was public and have a great respect for its commitment to innovation.
However, the company doesn't win every battle and is clearly losing this one to the likes of JIVE and CRM. Its R&D spend and sales execution have lagged its competitors, so I don't see any justification for its valuation to rival its peers. Personally, there's no way I would hold the stock at these levels, especially with its earnings due out tomorrow. It I was taking losses, I would try to regain them via more promising investments (such as COOL, as I wrote yesterday).
Note that I pride myself on accurate analysis. I'm no marketing genius, so my reputation is most important. I have publicly stated that I have no position in BVSN, long or shor (nor does anyone I know or associate with). I'm speaking purely from experience. No bias.
TrashD, great points. You've clearly done your homework!
Pletik...I have a biblical saying for stock investors: "Don't Look Back".
You made a nice profit. Be glad for that. I know plenty of people who rode BVSN all the way up, but couldn't bring themselves to sell as it crashed back to Earth. When it fell to 80, they'd say, "I'll just wait until it gets back to up to 100.", but before it could, it would fall to 60. Then they'd say, "I'll just wait til it gets back to 80." You can guess where they eventually sold (hint: it didn't have two digits...or three).
Make prudent profits until the risk/reward gets too great, then move on to the next one...and don't look back. I talk about using this method to maximize profits in my instablog (especially this article: http://seekingalpha.co...)
Shares Of Seagate Technology Could Triple In The Wake Of Thailand Floods [View article]
p.s. in my opinion, STX is choosing not to add capacity because:
1) it would hurt them later via industry overcapacity (they and WDC are close to completing deals to acquire Samsung and HGST, respectively...these deals will turn the industry into an oligopoly, with the most aggressive pricers eliminated and the most profit-focused companies -- STX and WDC -- co-owning the market).
2) WDC found some supply of head/sliders via TDK, making the addition of capacity less attractive, especially when one considers how long it would take for STX to ramp capacity. That being said, WDC still has a long road to hoe. From my checks, it appears that WDC will be building head/slider manufacturing in Malaysia. Smart move, since Thailand is expected to flood again next year, but still an arduous and costly undertaking.
Lions Gate: Hunger Hype Wanes, But The Games Have Just Begun [View article]
Majesco's Zumba: Building Momentum At Target And GameStop [View article]
1) The company expenses social gaming costs as they are incurred and that budget is already fixed at $4-5M for this year. Also, I am expecting $zero from the social business. Anything more will be a nice surprise. Thus, I probably have lower expectations and therefore lower concerns than you in this regard (I don't think there's anything wrong with either way of thinking about it though).
2) Rather, I'm eyeing their tighter focus on quality games. This will decrease wasted development costs this year. The proof is already clear on the balance sheet -- witness the huge 3-month drop in capitalized software development costs (from 12.6M to 4.2M). Big move.
3) If word gets out that NBA looks like a hit, the stock might take off before I can figure out who saw what and react. That being said, I wouldn't be taking my chances except for the fact that Zumba seems to be holding down the fort.
Right or wrong, that's my thinking on remaining long. I certainly respect your thinking as well. We'll soon see how it all turns out...
Cheers,
Mark G
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
I still own LGF, so obviously I believe there is still more reward than risk in the stock. How the movie opens will determine whether I buy more, hold, or sell.
Either way, one cannot argue that the risk is higher now, because the stock has risen tremendously in a short span. Most people already know that the movie is going to kill it in the first weekend -- tickets are already sold out in 1000+ locations. What we don't know is if the movie is good enough to go viral and have long legs beyond the first couple of weeks. At this level, that is what is needed to justify a jump to $20.
Cheers,
Mark G
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
Mine is one of many (including yours) good methods. Mine just happens to focus on minimizing risk, time, and expertise requirements.
Finding Stocks That Are Poised To Triple [View article]
Sorry again for the confusion.
Majesco Poised To Beat Street Estimates On Monday Night [View article]
I believe the stock is very undervalued, but I'm not a technical analyst, so I can't say if this is a better time to buy than any other.
When I complete an analysis, if I like the risk/reward, I buy right away. If the stock drops, I double check my work and buy more. As long as I'm right, I'm actually happy when the stock drops, because I ultimately end up with a much bigger position...and therefore more profits when it gets to fair value :^)
Kindest Regards,
Mark G
Majesco Poised To Beat Street Estimates On Monday Night [View article]
I agree with many of you points. However, I disagree that criticism is how you learn...research and experience is how you learn.
I've been on SeekingAlpha for many years and in the private sector as an investment analyst since 1994. I've learned from many mistakes and will continue to do so. I'm certainly not perfect, but nor am I a pumper. I think my track record bears that out.
Your eloquence indicates that you're very intelligent. As such, please don't take it as adversarial when I suggest that you could serve the investing public better if you shifted your focus from criticism to research (and perhaps becoming a SeekingAlpha contributor yourself).
As for me, I'm not here to offer buy and sell notifications. I'm simply here to share information and let the readers decide what to do with it, just as I do with Pipeline Data's institutional clients (who don't traffic in microcap stocks like this, FYI).
Kindest Regards,
Mark G.
p.s. Regarding my $20 comment, I've written about COOL many times and that was the first specific mention of its long-term potential (and it was only a comment, not a part of the article). That number didn't come out of the air, but via modelling its opportunity.
Too often, people fail to see the forest for the trees. If Majesco shows progress toward the opportunity I see before it, $20 is most definitely within reason. If you have a model that shows a lower ceiling, I'd love to see it -- I'd rather find out that I'm wrong before I end up poor! Cheers ;^)
Majesco Poised To Beat Street Estimates On Monday Night [View article]
_____________________ _____________________ _____________________
Get Mark's real-time stock updates for free by texting the words FOLLOW BOSTONGEKKO to 40404.
_____________________ _____________________ _____________________
Wieseme,
I think focusing on fitness games is BRILLIANT. Exercise DVDs was a huge 15-year wave...and that came after exercise video tapes, which was a decade-long wave of its own.
With interactive exercise now transitioning to the video game medium, Majesco appears to be taking the bull by the horns. Zumba is its only mega-hit, but it's not its own hit. Jillian Michaels has been a nice money maker as well (and Harley Pasternak may be next).
The big difference this time around is that VCR tapes and DVDs were easy to make. Video games aren't. This gives COOL a big advantage, as major players like EA focus on $100M monsters and fitness crazes like Zumba seek an experienced partner to bring their brands into the video game era.
It's the ground floor of a major new wave. We'll see how COOL responds. If they succeed, the stock could easily find its way to 20+. If not, I'm only risking a few bucks a share on a company that will like have over $1 on cash before long.
Cheers,
Mark G.
Shares Of Seagate Technology Could Triple In The Wake Of Thailand Floods [View article]
Many thanks for the kind words. I try my best and feel humbled that I can assist others in their financial pursuits. Hopefully, I can continue to assist in the months and years to come.
As for STX, I continue to hold the stock because 1) if the market continues upward, STX should follow suit and 2) if the economy weakens, STX should continue to do well, based on the constrained supply of HDDs and the fixed-price contracts they secured.
Kindest Regards,
Mark G.
After Solid Q4, iGO Expects Boost From Texas Instruments Partnership [View article]
I discussed that topic here: http://seekingalpha.co...
My view hasn't changed. The retail business should be heavily discounted. The chip could still be a big winner, but it's still a ways off. As I last wrote, I still own some shares, but am not a fan of being heavily invested in a company stuck in the "wait time" phase. It's usually better to buy when we're closer to an event...or even paying up once it has been actually announced.
Hope that helps,
Mark G.
Shares Of Majesco May Be Getting Ready For Another 300% Move [View article]
You're entitled to your opinion, so I respect that. However, I've built a track record based on fundamental analysis, with a focus on near- to intermediate-term catalysts. The latest update to my performance can be found here: http://bit.ly/rKkrcJ
I understand your point regarding the multiple article submissions. However, the company is at a critical juncture which warranted a discussion of various subject matters. I could have written a multi-part report, but this way was easier to process through the SeekingAlpha system.
As far as the "benefits" of being a SeekingAlpha contributor, you could say that about every contributor, which is a little unfair without qualification, no? On the flip side, my methodology and analyses are all well-documented for all to see. I'm not always right, but I'm always honest in my assessments.
As someone with more of a mind for numbers than marketing, I have nothing more than my reputation to lean on. Again, I respect your right to refute my claims, heckle me when I'm wrong, or even call me an idiot, but I'd ask that you consider my full body of work before casting accusations.
Feel free to start with COOL. If they don't beat the current estimates of $54M, I'll eat plenty of humble pie (wouldn't be the first time).
Kindest Regards,
Mark G.
Jive IPOs, Broadvision Triples: Who's Next? [View article]
I can only reiterate what I have written here. I can't speak to Mr. Ledbed's credentials, but I've been a software investment consultant to the mutual fund and hedge fund industry since 1994. I knew Broadvision long before it was public and have a great respect for its commitment to innovation.
However, the company doesn't win every battle and is clearly losing this one to the likes of JIVE and CRM. Its R&D spend and sales execution have lagged its competitors, so I don't see any justification for its valuation to rival its peers. Personally, there's no way I would hold the stock at these levels, especially with its earnings due out tomorrow. It I was taking losses, I would try to regain them via more promising investments (such as COOL, as I wrote yesterday).
Note that I pride myself on accurate analysis. I'm no marketing genius, so my reputation is most important. I have publicly stated that I have no position in BVSN, long or shor (nor does anyone I know or associate with). I'm speaking purely from experience. No bias.
Best Wishes,
Mark G
Jive IPOs, Broadvision Triples: Who's Next? [View article]
Pletik...I have a biblical saying for stock investors: "Don't Look Back".
You made a nice profit. Be glad for that. I know plenty of people who rode BVSN all the way up, but couldn't bring themselves to sell as it crashed back to Earth. When it fell to 80, they'd say, "I'll just wait until it gets back to up to 100.", but before it could, it would fall to 60. Then they'd say, "I'll just wait til it gets back to 80." You can guess where they eventually sold (hint: it didn't have two digits...or three).
Make prudent profits until the risk/reward gets too great, then move on to the next one...and don't look back. I talk about using this method to maximize profits in my instablog (especially this article: http://seekingalpha.co...)
Cheers,
Mark G.
Shares Of Seagate Technology Could Triple In The Wake Of Thailand Floods [View article]
1) it would hurt them later via industry overcapacity (they and WDC are close to completing deals to acquire Samsung and HGST, respectively...these deals will turn the industry into an oligopoly, with the most aggressive pricers eliminated and the most profit-focused companies -- STX and WDC -- co-owning the market).
2) WDC found some supply of head/sliders via TDK, making the addition of capacity less attractive, especially when one considers how long it would take for STX to ramp capacity. That being said, WDC still has a long road to hoe. From my checks, it appears that WDC will be building head/slider manufacturing in Malaysia. Smart move, since Thailand is expected to flood again next year, but still an arduous and costly undertaking.
Thailand Flooding Will Ravage Tech Earnings Into 2012 [View article]
http://onforb.es/tbBjja/