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Mark Gomes  

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  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    I understand and respect your comments. Of course, your interaction with friends/family will be in whatever language you choose. In this regard, there's no difference between FB and QPSA.

    However, there's a big difference in the look and feel of versus I'm not saying QPSA is better, but it is very different (especially the dating-related sections). I think QPSA's success will hinge on carving out a niche for itself with its features. I mean, let's face it, I doubt we'll be seeing anything like "Mucho Sexo" on FB anytime soon...LOL !

    I hear what you're saying though. I already have a "mucho sexo" girlfriend, so QPSA's dating features don't appeal to me...but I can't speak for all the people that do find those features (among others)more appealing than what FB offers.

    Keep in mind, I can also interact with business contacts on FB, but I have a LinkedIn account, as do millions of other people. Yet another website that provides a different look, feel, and set of offerings.

    Again, I'm not proclaiming that QPSA's success is guaranteed. However, as investors, we must acknowledge that the stock will skyrocket if they are successful and therefore monitor its progress.
    Apr 7, 2011. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Quepasa Bears Run Out of Ammunition? [View article]

    I enjoy your counter-insight, but you could do a better job of being a bearish voice here (just busting your chops, of course). Allow me to elaborate:

    March was a disappointing month for QPSA's user statistics in my opinion. After adding 2.3M+ users in Jan, it only added 2.1M+ in Feb, and 1.9M in March. Wrong direction! In fact, this makes 6 straight months in which sequential registered-user growth has declined. I was similarly unthrilled by its pageview statistics. While 133% year-over-year growth is impressive, its user growth was 185% over the same timeframe, indicating that the pageviews per registered user is dropping (though bulls would point out that pageviews among QPSA's active users is now showing healthy growth, a sign that its latest initiatives are taking hold).

    As you can by these comments, I'm not here to be an unconditional QSPA booster. I'm here to share research in pursuit of accurate risk and reward calculations, geared toward producing optimal investment profits.

    Looking at QPSA, despite being disappointed with its March results, I continue to believe that the stock's risk/reward is favorable. It's potential is tremendous, while its downside is relatively limited from these levels. Still, it's important to stay close to its metrics and website improvements, as these impact the company's risk/reward ratio.

    As for your spamming comment, as far as I'm concerned, business is business. If they aren't breaking the law, it's usually fair game. I know dozens of companies engaging in far more questionable (though legal) practices in pursuit of success. Shorting those companies for that reason alone will get you run over.

    Sticking to the results and metrics is the way to go. In that regard, QPSA gave the bears some things to cheer about, but it also demonstrated progress in initiatives that will lead to future improvements. The risk/reward tug of war continues...
    Apr 6, 2011. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    Buster...I understand what you're saying, but social-networking is less about language and more about culture. I'm not necessarily suggesting that Quepasa understands hispanic cultures better than Facebook does, but that is the company's intent. If successful, it should be able to carve out a niche by appealing to the hispanic community's unique cultural nuances.

    The stock's success or failure will be determined by how well it executes on this strategy. I have people active on the site, keeping an eye on their progress.

    So, is this gambling? Well, many would call stock investing a "game of gambling"...and for most it is. However, if done correctly, it should be a "business of calulated risks". Accurate calculation of risks and rewards leads to consistent annual outperformance.
    Apr 6, 2011. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Quepasa Bears Run Out of Ammunition? [View article]
    Hi Tim,

    I agree with you regarding longs pretending everything's ok, just as I also feel the same way about shorts pretending that opportunity doesn't exist. It works both ways (FYI, not implying that you fit into either category).

    I'm interested in what happened to Ian, but his disappearance is irrelevant to the fundamental value of QPSA shares. Similar to your move, I sold some of my position in the teens, but repurchased those shares around $6.50. Regardless of what anyone says about the company and regardless of who buys or sells, the company is worth what it's worth. To me, $16 seemed too hot. At present, $6 seems too cold. Somewhere around $12 may be just right. Of course, for you, that number may be $8; or someone else, $15...and that's what makes markets.

    As for your comment regarding QSPA's low revenue, I'm a bit surprised, considering your reputation for intelligent analysis. I'd like to think that you are thinking more about the company's future revenues than its history. Every company starts at zero. From there, its strategy determines how long it remains there and how fast it ramps. For example, with Pandora's free usage model, revenues were close to zero for some time. In fact, they did just $4.2M in 2007 (less than QPSA does about LOL!). But as the company built a larger user base (now 80M+ in the U.S.) and started playing more ads, revenue took off. In fact, the company surely exceeded $100M in 2010.

    Comparing QPSA to Pandora may help to establish some baselines, because QPSA seems to be approaching monetization in a similar way (i.e. build the base, then reap the rewards).

    For example, looking at Pandora's S-1 (IPO statement with the SEC) the company hit 32M users in its July quarter of 2010, which was about 100% year over year growth. In contrast, QPSA's user base just hit 32M, but represented a 200% jump. So, QPSA is growing faster at the same point in time.

    Looking at revenue, Pandora was likely doing about $4M per quarter when it hit 32M users. We won't know how much QPSA generated on its 32M users until Q1 earnings are released, but $4M is a solid bet. Therefore, QPSA is building revenue at the same rate as Pandora at a similar level of registered users.

    For the record, I'm not calling QPSA the next Pandora, but the numbers suggest that such a comparison wouldn't be beyond the realm of sanity.
    Mar 11, 2011. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    Here you go Ian:

    Looking forward to your insights, positive or negative!
    Mar 10, 2011. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    Right. The presentation underscored the fact that management will now take its 32M registered users and actually start delivering services to monetize them. Gaming is just one such service. They totally get it. It'll be interesting to see how many institutions agree and start buying shares. We should get a sense of this in the coming days.
    Mar 10, 2011. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    The investor presentation is going very well. They're explaining the strategy quite clearly. Plus, they have already said that the Sony relationship is off to a great start. I think their odds of success look a lot better than the stock's recent action suggests. I'll send a complete update ASAP.
    Mar 10, 2011. 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    p.s. It would appear that investors are in agreement with this, at least today. That said, the company's success or failure doesn't have to be decided today...but its stock price should properly reflect its odds of success.

    In that regard, I'll be interested in seeing how far tomorrow's investor presentation goes toward changing the perception of what the right odds should be !
    Mar 9, 2011. 03:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    One of the best things about QPSA is the large number of positive and negative data points being provided by level-headed investors. Much preferable to the typical chat-board battles.

    Better yet, all of the data points are valid. QPSA clearly has a wide range of outcomes in a wide range of geographies. The thing that I try to consider above all is that even if management can't figure out how to make something work in a given country, there may be a larger firm (i.e. Google) who would prefer to start with a QPSA-created toe hole (no matter how small), rather than starting completely from scratch.

    Remember, time-to-market is critical here. The Internet moves fast enough to enable a small company to defeat an entrenched giant and become a multi-billion dollar company in a few years flat. Google did it to Yahoo. Facebook did it to MySpace. QPSA could replicate that in any number of geographies...or get acquired by someone who can.

    This is why the stock's implied odds of success should be higher than yesterday's ~22%. Something closer to 50% ($12) makes more sense given that "success" can be defined as "successful execution" or "acquired".
    Mar 9, 2011. 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    The second link should have been:
    Mar 9, 2011. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    Interesting stuff. Here are links to a few more (older and newer) data points to consider: (search the page for "Carlos Slim").


    This will obviously remain a volatile stock for awhile. The difference in company value if it succeeds vs fails is very wide (let's call it $2 versus $22 to make it an easy $20 spread). Small changes in QPSA's odds of success will have a big impact on the share price. For example, 25/75 odds only justifies a $7 stock price today (25% of the way from $2 to $22)...50/50 odds justifies a $12 stock today...and 75/25 odds justifies $17.

    At its peak, the odds were close to 70%. To me, that felt too high / too soon. But now, the share price only implies a ~22% chance of success. I have to say...I like those odds.
    Mar 9, 2011. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Shares Still Set to Triple [View article]
    Good comments, everyone. In my opinion this is what "social network investing" is all about. Everyone contributes the data points they can, both bullish and bearish. Then, we can all weigh all the data and all make money...

    ...and if I'm not mistaken, making money is why we all do this!

    It's not about pump-n-dump or the childish Yahoo chat board battles. It's about finding the most likely truth and profiting from it. I don't know what happened to Ian, but he seemed to have real and legitimate data points. We can argue whether he used those data points in a promotional fashion, but that time can be better utilized.

    In any case, I'll continue to do my part and contribute all I can. As for now, I'm working hard to finish the due diligence my next "Set to Triple" pick. I'll have it ready for your reading pleasure (and scrutiny) within days.

    Mar 8, 2011. 09:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Is Young, Not Overvalued: Pullback Presents Buy Opportunity [View article]
    Agree. Given that the stock was 6 several weeks ago, I suspect that 7.50 was the price they were looking for, so this is a positive. Plus, they were able to raise the money without begging the general smart money was clearly happy with the story and valuation. That's not the Holy Grail, but it is a positive data point. Cheers!
    Dec 16, 2010. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Is Young, Not Overvalued: Pullback Presents Buy Opportunity [View article]
    Nice data point, Ian. In about 2 years, I can see QPSA getting to where Renren is now. Thus, we'll be able to discount Renren's IPO valuation and come up with another number to help triangulate fair value for QPSA. Thanks for your productive contribution to the group. Every fact (positive or negative) helps us ascertain the truth!
    Dec 13, 2010. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quepasa Is Young, Not Overvalued: Pullback Presents Buy Opportunity [View article]
    Tim, with all due respect, I have nothing to prove. I contribute to SeekingAlpha for reasons I've already outlined. Beyond that, if we can help each other to more accurately calculate the balance of risk and reward, great. If not, we must live with the idea of agreeing to disagree. I'm cool with it either way.

    Microcap Speculator seems to have made his choice (to be constructively collaborative). MS, again you make great points. Based on my respect for your less-bullish view, I've made QPSA my top due diligence priority. I'll do a deeper dive into the issues you raise and share my findings. I'll be just as happy to determine that I was wrong as I will to be more convicted in my current thesis. Either scenario will enable me to make a optimal investment decision.
    Dec 11, 2010. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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