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Mark Gomes
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With over 20 years of professional experience, Mark Gomes is among the world's most experienced technology stock analysts. During his time as a contributor to Seeking Alpha, over 50% of his official picks were either acquired or tripled in value. Currently, Mr. Gomes is the CEO of Pipeline Data,... More
My company:
PTT Research & Pipeline Data, LLC
My blog:
Poised To Triple
My book:
Faster Than Forty
View Mark Gomes' Instablogs on:
  • Tripling Your Money

    In 2008, I semi-retired after a blessed 14-year career serving hundreds of Wall Street's most well-known institutions. In 2009, I decided to pay it forward by donating five years of time to provide investment lessons and picks to Main Street investors.

    At the end of those five years, I launched PTT Research to continue providing my services to interested subscribers. Thousands have signed up, presumably drawn by my Seeking Alpha performance. Thousands more subscribe to my free weekly newsletter at PoisedToTriple.com.

    During my "tour of duty", I provided 33 official selections, which have been meticulously tracked via the PoisedToTriple Portfolio Tracker. Of the 33, seventeen (over 50%) have either tripled or been acquired with profits averaging 161%. Seven proved to be bad picks, with losses averaging 17%. Balancing modest losses with large gains is the cornerstone of my investment philosophy.

    There are a few things to understand:

    * Some of my picks are meant to be short-term in nature, but most many require patience to reap great rewards. Indeed, my biggest winner ever declined by more than 30% in 9 months before rising more than 1,000% in the following 15 months.

    The lesson is clear -never judge a stock by how it acts. The value of a company often has nothing to do with the stock's direction (mainly because 95% of investors don't have the 10-year education required to properly evaluate them). In reality, a company's true value eventually gets reflected in its stock price.

    * My aim is to be early, so a wait is to be expected. Investors should also expect to hear a lot of bearish comments regarding my selections. This is because the biggest opportunities are usually unknown, unloved, or even hated.

    Accordingly, I attract numerous detractors who don't understand my method. If they have a professional background, I might challenge them to a public debate. To date, all have declined, citing time or a desire not to get involved in a "dog and pony show". Of course, by having gotten involved in the first place, they have spent time and created a show. Indeed, most haven't done the homework my team has.

    My advice is to check the resume and track record of the detractor. In many cases, you will find an unqualified individual attempting to make a name for themselves or scare investors for their own benefit. In other words, beware of whose words you trust.

    * Speaking of which, my "team" consists of my mentor of 20 years, several junior analysts, and industry experts to whom I allocate a six-figure annual budget.

    My picks are NOT based on current math (i.e. P/E ratios). The value of a stock is determined by a DCF analysis, the gold standard for stock valuation analysis. A DCF analysis are focused on a company's future. Thus, my team focuses on ascertaining the potential future inherent in the company's current strengths and capabilities, coupled with a forward-looking assessment of the markets they serve.

    My selection of HIMX and PXLW (both tripled) were perfect examples. In both cases, our expert consultants helped us determine that their technologies would command the attention of GOOG and AAPL, respectively.

    Skeptics balked and accused me of being a "pump and dump artist". But within months, GOOG announced a deal with HIMX and AAPL was found to be a large PXLW customer (via an SEC filing). Those skeptics disappeared, but new ones seem to appear for every new selection I make. I'm not always right, so some will occasionally prevail... but even a broken clock is right twice a day!

    A strong mind is required to overcome uninformed negative biases and commentary. My resume, track record, Methodology, and research rigor are meant to provide the confidence required to do so. If a detractor (or your own negative bias) isn't backed by 100+ hours of expert-based research, the bias should be deemed suspect.

    * Some of my selections (like GSAT, which also tripled) are not based on the idea of being right about its future. That may sound counter-intuitive, but stocks aren't black and white. They are always gray, reflecting 1) the potential reward for success and 2) the potential penalty for failure.

    In simplistic terms, I believed that GSAT (which was trading at 67-cents at the time) was actually worth $2 based on roughly 50/50 odds success (worth $4+) and failure (with the potential penalty being bankruptcy). FYI, the penalty is why I classified the investment as "Speculative".

    Of course, such a "bet" is worth $2 ($4 * 0.5 + $0 * 0.5 = $2), which was 3x its price at the time. In other words, I was seeking a fair value more so than determining if GSAT's business would succeed or fail. After all, there is no such thing as a sure future, so all stock evaluation is an exercise in handicapping.

    Those who knocked the selection on the basis of pending success or failure were missing the point. Sure enough, the stock went to $2 (and actually continued on to $4+). In fact, even after an in-depth and damning report surfaced against GSAT, the stock continued to trade over $2.

    I still have no comment on whether GSAT will succeed or fail, but continue to believe that $2 is a "fair" price for the coin flip (and I don't like "fair" values -- I seek bargains, so we have moved on).

    * No matter what the situation might be, the rules of my Methodology are critical to your success. The Methodology represents the cumulative knowledge gleaned from my 25-years of experience, personal mentors, and investing legends like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Benjamin Graham (Buffett's mentor). In fact, the Methodology contains several video lessons from these legends.

    Here's my complete Portfolio track record as of October 31, 2014:

    CORE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    LionbridgeLIOX1/20/20091.233.69200% 7.50510%
    IGOI (1:12 split)OTCPK:IGOI8/6/201018.7256.16200% 62.28233%
    CalixCALX9/19/201012.4521.9176% 22.9784%
    Zhone NetworksZHNE10/24/20102.011.61-20% 6.62229%
    AsteaATEA11/12/20102.256.75200% 7.64240%
    MajescoCOOL9/30/20112.001.6020% 3.4774%
    SeagateSTX11/11/201117.9453.82200% 63.27253%
    Lions GateLGF3/20/201212.1436.42200% 37.81211%
    AttunityATTU4/27/20123.3610.08200% 12.00257%
    LantronixLTRX7/9/20121.821.69-7% 3.3182%
    RainmakerRMKR9/23/20121.040.83-20% 1.3732%
    FacebookFB10/29/201218.0654.18200% 80.82348%
    HimaxHIMX3/4/20133.4410.32200% 16.15369%
    Glu MobileGLUU10/24/20133.143.8723% 7.60142%
             
    Averages 385 days  119%  219%
             
             
             
    SPECULATIVE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    Meetme (Quepasa)MEET11/12/20106.588.8234% 15.45135%
    CereplastCERP5/8/20114.923.94-20% 5.308%
    AtrinsicOTCPK:ATRN7/24/20113.262.61-20% 6.1589%
    Pixelworks **PXLW6/3/20133.249.72200% 9.83203%
    TechPrecisionTPCS7/11/20130.401.20200% 1.35238%
    GlobalstarGSAT8/25/20130.672.01200% 4.53581%
    Delia ***DLIA11/26/20131.100.79-28% 1.4532%
    AeroGrowAERO1/30/20144.103.93-4% 10.45155%
    Mattersight ****MATR3/7/20146.055.42-10% 7.8530%
             
    Averages 199 days  61%  163%
             
    ** Upgraded to Core, but remains situated in the Speculative tracker where it was initially selected.   
    *** Initiation price adjusted to reflect our coverage relaunch at $0.70 on 2/20/14    
    **** Upgraded to Momentum, but remains situated in the Speculative tracker where it was initially selected. 
             
             
    MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    JAKKS PacificJAKK6/9/20147.736.38-17% 9.4823%
             
             
    VALUE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    BroadVision (Long)BVSN2/8/201012.6437.92200% 44.75254%
    RealNetworksRNWK2/17/201016.2312.98-20% 19.8322%
    QAD SoftwareQADA3/24/201311.7321.5183% 23.0797%
             
    Averages 490 days  88%  124%
             
             
    ACQUIRED PICKS        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceFinal ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    VoltaireOTC:VOLT1/22/20106.10Acquired43% 8.7343%
    NovellNOVL5/21/20106.06Acquired8% 6.538%
    Magma DesignLAVA8/15/20102.77Acquired158% 7.15158%
    Occam NetworksOCNW8/15/20105.41Acquired82% 9.8482%
    Pervasive SoftwarePVSW3/20/20115.36Acquired48% 7.9348%
             
    Averages 336 days  68%  68%
             
             
    SHORT PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    Broadvision (Short)BVSN1/24/201244.7517.0062% 7.8183%
             
    Averages 105 days  62%  83%

    You will notice that my recent selections have yet to perform. That is to be expected. As previously noted, my picks often take time to mature. We continue to provide subscribers with updated information on how our investments are progressing.

    In addition to the above, my picks are usually "small caps" an asset class that has had a tough year. In fact, I warned PTT Research customers of this in November 2013 and July 2014 via my well-known "Stock Market Yellow Alerts". In both cases, investors saved millions by taking our recommended actions to avoid the market corrections that soon ensued.

    It's all a part of the holistic services I seek to provide. At its core is a foundation of education that will serve my readers long after I'm gone. After all, if you give someone a fish, they eat for a day; teach them how to fish and they will eat for life.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark Gomes

    Nov 02 7:06 PM | Link | 11 Comments
  • TechPrecision (TPCS) Update
    Today, I thought I'd share a piece that was previously released for PTT subscribers.

    Per our publicly available Portfolio Tracker TPCS exited our portfolio at $1.20 per share (back in late-2013). However, many have requested an update on why we haven't re-initiated coverage, especially in light of Mevion's IPO filing.

    Indeed, some speculated that the IPO filing by Mevion (TPCS's most promising customer) could drive interest in TPCS shares. The S-1 (Mevion's IPO filing with the SEC) stated:

    "We market the MEVION S250 to a broad range of worldwide customers, including university research and teaching hospitals, community hospitals, private practices, government institutions and freestanding cancer centers. Although the length of our sales process varies based on the customer, it is typically lengthy, lasting up to 36 months or more from initial customer contact to contract execution, nine to 12 months for the customization of a customer's facility for the system, and 18 to 24 months to install the system.

    As of the date of this prospectus, we have installed only one MEVION S250. In December 2013, the Siteman Cancer Center at Barnes-Jewish Hospital, or BJH, a National Cancer Institute Designated Comprehensive Cancer Center, became the first center to treat patients with a MEVION S250. During the three-month period ended June 30, 2014, we recognized revenue of $7.6 million from our first installed MEVION S250. BJH is rapidly ramping up the use of the MEVION S250 in its clinical practice, recently treating 18 different patients per day with a total of approximately 50 treatment fields, or unique radiation beams delivered from different directions. This represents a utilization rate of 60% to 70%.

    On March 22, 2014, we delivered a recall notice to BJH regarding a defect we identified in an advanced software feature for the patient positioning system of the MEVION S250.

    On September 11, 2014, we announced the introduction of Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy, an alternative beam shaping technology, for the MEVION S250, which we named HYPERSCAN. We expect that HYPERSCAN will be available for delivery in fiscal 2016.

    We promptly updated our software to resolve this defect and the FDA closed the recall notice on April 3, 2014.

    As of June 30, 2014, we had 21 signed system purchase contracts that also cover service during the warranty period, of which 17 are included in our backlog at a total value of $257.6 million, and one service contract for post-warranty services at a total value of $3.0 million. Included in our backlog are signed system purchase contracts from our distributors in Japan and South Korea of $65.8 million and $20.0 million, respectively, and we do not yet have regulatory approval to sell the MEVION S250 in either jurisdiction."

    This aligns nicely with the news a couple months ago that TPCS had obtained new funding, partially in order to purchase a second gantry machine. Presumably the purpose of the gantry machine is to double TPCS's S-250 manufacturing capabilities. The company is understandably tight-lipped about the gantry, Mevion's IPO, timelines for manufacturing, and its current financial state. Accordingly, our disposition toward the stock is to wait and see.

    Investors who wish to take a flyer on the shares should be aware that there is a real risk of 100% loss, just as there is potential for another 200% run. There's a reason we have remained on the sidelines. I won't be getting anyone involved until we have clarity on TPCS's financial situation and Mevion's ramp-up. I'd rather pay 50 cents a share for a company that is relatively "safe" than pay 14 cents a share for a company that is still at risk of critical failure.

    Usually, it doesn't pay to show up before the ballgame starts. It may get rained out. Better to show up for the start of the second inning… and leave before the 9th to beat the rush.

    Tags: TPCS
    Oct 22 8:00 PM | Link | 7 Comments
  • My Performance On Seeking Alpha Stinks ;^)

    Over the past 5+ years, I've published nearly 200 articles. Compared to many active Seeking Alpha contributors, that's not a lot (less than one per week on average). The reason is that I chose to focus on quality over quantity. Seeking Alpha seems to take that ideal seriously. They have started tracking contributor performance figures on the site.

    Personally, I think this is a great idea. EVERY analyst's performance should be tracked. It can protect investors from bad analysts... but having a neutral third-party tracker can also protect the analyst from undue scrutiny.

    After all, EVERY analyst picks duds from time to time (I'm only right 60-70% of the time). But an analyst's hit rate doesn't tell the story - performance does. As proof, just look at the venture capital business, where a 20% hit rate can be considered phenomenal. Indeed, investors who take higher risks can reap higher rewards on their winners, making room for more losers.

    My official picks are consistently tracked via my Portfolio Tracker at PoisedToTriple.com. If I write an article, you can quickly find out if I have issued an official or unofficial pick by going there. It's free, public, and updated whenever I make an official portfolio move.

    That being said, not everyone reads my disclosures. As a result, many Seeking Alpha readers don't understand my Methodology or which picks are official or unofficial. Both of those things can greatly impact the investor's success. Accordingly, I checked out Seeking Alpha's assessment of my selections. In addition to the chart below, you can see it as part of my Seeking Alpha profile.

    If you scroll to the bottom, you'll see the average 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns for my articles (10.1%, 20.6%, 27.7%). Annualized, that equates to 46.9%, 45.4%, and of course 27.7%, respectively.

    While that sounds great on the surface, I personally think it sucks. During my time on Seeking Alpha, the market has gained an average of 14.7% annually. In other words, a monkey could make 15% since my first appearance here. Secondly, while my 3- and 6-month numbers are pretty good, the readers who don't follow my closing transactions at PoisedToTriple are just as likely to hold for a year.

    If so, they haven't averaged 40% annually. Finally, my official picks have performed much more admirably, which implies that the timing and/or quality of my Seeking Alpha articles has greatly lagged that of the articles I issue to customers. Now, to some extent, that's a good thing (subscriber dues pay for my 6-figure research budget and team of junior analysts). However, to motivate free readers to buy my premium services, the "free" in freemium may need to make them more money.

    So, while some would say that 27.7% per year is great performance, you now know why I say, "my performance on Seeking Alpha sucks"!

    Title

    Symbol

    Long/

    Date of

    3m from

    6m from

    1y from

    Short

    publication

    publication

    publication

    publication

    The Lululemon Decision: What Would A Woman Do?

    LULU

    Short

    6/13/2014

    -20.20%

    -

    -

    With Ultra HD Emerging, Is Apple Eyeing Pixelworks?

    PXLW

    Long

    6/7/2014

    -7.70%

    -

    -

    Globalstar Hits A 5-Year High Amid Google's Broadband Push

    GSAT

    Long

    6/7/2014

    -1.30%

    -

    -

    Glu's Secondary Offering Is Bullish

    GLUU

    Long

    5/30/2014

    41.80%

    -

    -

    Glu Mobile: Another Quarter, Another Blowout

    GLUU

    Long

    5/1/2014

    33.30%

    -

    -

    Should King's Sour Candy Be Crushing Shares Of Glu?

    GLUU

    Long

    4/6/2014

    28.50%

    24.80%

    -

    Divergent Prevails; Lions Gate Stock On The Mend

    LGF

    Long

    3/24/2014

    -2.30%

    11.10%

    -

    A Divergent Look At Lions Gate

    LGF

    Long

    3/21/2014

    -0.70%

    23.30%

    -

    Pixelworks Discloses Relationship With Apple

    PXLW

    Long

    3/6/2014

    -22.00%

    -25.70%

    -

    dELiA*s Is Poised To Triple

    DLIA

    Long

    2/24/2014

    -26.30%

    -51.60%

    -

    Exploring Pixelworks' Positioning In Depth

    PXLW

    Long

    2/4/2014

    0.40%

    22.00%

    -

    Ignore The Downgrade - Glu Is Still Poised To Triple

    GLUU

    Long

    12/27/2013

    24.80%

    27.20%

    -

    Shares Of Glu Mobile Are Poised To Triple

    GLUU

    Long

    11/24/2013

    27.30%

    1.10%

    -

    Shares Of ARC Worldwide Are Poised To Plummet

    ARCW

    Short

    11/21/2013

    -27.30%

    -54.20%

    -

    Pixelworks Q3 Reveals Why Its Shares Should Triple

    PXLW

    Long

    11/17/2013

    11.60%

    35.30%

    -

    2 More Triples And A Double; What's The Next Home Run?

    HIMX

    Long

    9/28/2013

    34.60%

    13.90%

    -3.1%

    Globalstar's FCC Milestone Could Advance Talks With Amazon

    GSAT

    Long

    9/15/2013

    101.00%

    169.40%

    286.7%

    Amazon Tests Satellite Network - Globalstar Poised For Launch

    GSAT

    Long

    8/26/2013

    161.20%

    235.80%

    494.0%

    Rebutting The Bear Case On Pixelworks

    PXLW

    Long

    8/20/2013

    3.00%

    28.20%

    59.4%

    Himax Q2: Make Or Miss? Part II

    HIMX

    Long

    8/15/2013

    50.30%

    125.30%

    31.2%

    Himax Q2 Earnings Report: Make Or Miss?

    HIMX

    Long

    8/14/2013

    39.10%

    105.60%

    19.6%

    Tableau's Big Data Beat And Raise: What's Next?

    DATA

    Long

    8/9/2013

    -5.00%

    32.70%

    -11.3%

    Pixelworks Pops 40% On Strong Guidance

    PXLW

    Long

    8/7/2013

    -5.40%

    6.50%

    26.5%

    Glu Mobile: Crossing The Chasm With Android Consoles

    GLUU

    Long

    7/30/2013

    34.40%

    33.00%

    144.7%

    Himax Is Still Poised To Triple: Who's Next?

    HIMX

    Long

    7/22/2013

    51.80%

    119.70%

    -6.0%

    Google Solidifies The Future Of Glass With Investment In Himax

    GOOG

    Long

    7/22/2013

    10.60%

    27.90%

    30.5%

    Is Coronado Biosciences A Feast Or A Fraud?

    CNDO

    Short

    7/22/2013

    79.90%

    64.60%

    80.1%

    Making Money On M&A - The Deferred Revenue Factor

    DWCH

    Long

    7/2/2013

    63.50%

    95.00%

    -10.2%

    Google Glass Teardown Spurs Himax Sell-off

    HIMX

    Long

    6/13/2013

    70.40%

    112.30%

    23.3%

    Shares Of Pixelworks Could Be Poised To Triple

    PXLW

    Long

    6/3/2013

    -0.30%

    13.60%

    80.8%

    Seagate Week In Review: Did Chanos Misguide Investors?

    STX

    Long

    5/12/2013

    3.60%

    20.90%

    28.1%

    BlackBerry Week In Review: Bears Take An Unsuccessful Swipe

    BBRY

    Long

    5/12/2013

    -32.10%

    -59.20%

    -53.1%

    Short Blackberry (After It Doubles)

    BBRY

    Long

    5/5/2013

    -38.50%

    -57.20%

    -49.1%

    BlackBerry Bear Case Is Flawed - Shares Should Double

    BBRY

    Long

    4/28/2013

    -43.10%

    -47.50%

    -51.8%

    Shares Of Himax Hit By Flawed Bear Case

    HIMX

    Long

    4/15/2013

    2.60%

    87.00%

    66.1%

    What If Google Glass Flops?

    GOOG

    Long

    3/12/2013

    5.70%

    8.20%

    46.3%

    Google Glass/Himax Debate Rages On, Digitimes Report Adds To The Drama

    HIMX

    Long

    3/7/2013

    64.20%

    103.70%

    252.4%

    Google Glass Coming Early - Shares Of Himax Are Poised To Triple

    HIMX

    Long

    3/4/2013

    71.80%

    89.20%

    266.4%

    Google Launches The Glass War: Winners And Losers Abound

    GOOG

    Long

    3/4/2013

    2.40%

    3.90%

    44.9%

    Apple Uniquely Positioned To Cash In On Android

    AAPL

    Long

    2/8/2013

    -2.30%

    -1.70%

    12.2%

    Responsys: Service Outage Makes A Bad Situation Worse

    MKTG

    Short

    12/11/2012

    -48.80%

    -106.70%

    -245.5%

    Oracle: Heading Toward The Hewlett-Packard Wall?

    ORCL

    Short

    9/21/2012

    -4.80%

    -0.20%

    -6.1%

    Lantronix Reports Q4 Results; Shares Remain Undervalued

    LTRX

    Long

    8/30/2012

    -11.20%

    5.30%

    -19.8%

    Shares Of Lantronix Are Poised To Triple

    LTRX

    Long

    7/9/2012

    -19.10%

    -17.30%

    -28.9%

    Broadband Stimulus Vendors Are Cleared For Takeoff

    CALX

    Long

    5/3/2012

    -47.80%

    -19.00%

    4.9%

    Is Alvarion Prepping Itself To Be Acquired?

    ALVR

    Long

    4/19/2012

    -47.40%

    -41.40%

    -57.4%

    Lions Gate: Hunger Hype Wanes, But The Games Have Just Begun

    LGF

    Long

    4/18/2012

    20.10%

    32.50%

    84.3%

    Majesco's Zumba: Building Momentum At Target And GameStop

    COOL

    Long

    4/4/2012

    -16.00%

    -47.30%

    -77.1%

    Easy Math To Confirm Your Lion's Gate Price Target

    LGF

    Long

    3/20/2012

    -3.30%

    2.10%

    48.9%

    NPD Data: Majesco Joins The Video Game Elite

    COOL

    Long

    2/10/2012

    -12.60%

    -33.70%

    -75.5%

    Shares Of Majesco May Be Getting Ready For Another 300% Move

    COOL

    Long

    1/24/2012

    11.60%

    -13.50%

    -68.4%

    Majesco Shares Will Rebound As Interactive Fitness Takes Flight

    COOL

    Long

    1/22/2012

    9.50%

    -11.40%

    -66.7%

    Shares Of Seagate Technology Could Triple In The Wake Of Thailand Floods

    STX

    Long

    11/11/2011

    47.50%

    78.50%

    70.0%

    Zumba Craze Means Majesco Shares Are Poised To Triple

    COOL

    Long

    9/30/2011

    19.60%

    21.10%

    -38.2%

    Why Zhone Technologies Could Triple in Value

    ZHNE

    Long

    8/10/2011

    -37.50%

    -10.50%

    -62.5%

    Zhone Shares Are Still Poised to Triple, Despite Disappointing Earnings

    ZHNE

    Long

    4/26/2011

    -13.40%

    -67.50%

    -60.6%

    Pervasive Software Shares Are Poised to Triple

    PVSW

    Long

    3/20/2011

    13.90%

    20.30%

    7.8%

    After Solid Q4, iGO Expects Boost From Texas Instruments Partnership

    IGOI

    Long

    3/11/2011

    -37.00%

    -45.70%

    -77.5%

    Astea's Shares Could Be Set to Triple

    ATEA

    Long

    11/12/2010

    9.60%

    82.60%

    39.6%

    RealNetworks: Exceptional Value at Current Levels

    RNWK

    Long

    2/17/2010

    -10.90%

    -38.50%

    -8.6%

    BroadVision: Profitable, But Selling for Less than Cash

    BVSN

    Long

    2/8/2010

      

    0.0%

    Voltaire: Set to Benefit from IBM's Server Sales

    VOLT

    Long

    1/22/2010

      

    45.8%

    Lionbridge: Small Cap Value Showing Strong Earnings Growth

    LIOX

    Long

    1/20/2009

      

    110.8%

           

     
       

    10.1%

    20.6%

    27.7%

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