Seeking Alpha

Mark Gomes'  Instablog

Mark Gomes
Send Message
Mark Gomes is one of the world's most experienced technology analysts, with over 20 years in the market. He is also a Masters Track & Field world record holder and U.S. Gold medalist (http://www.fasterthanforty.com/hello-world/). Currently, Mr. Gomes is the CEO of PTTResearch.com, Pipeline... More
My company:
PTT Research & Pipeline Data, LLC
My blog:
Poised To Triple
My book:
Faster Than Forty
View Mark Gomes' Instablogs on:
  • Bearish Globalstar Article Finds Balance

    On Friday, January 3, Globalstar (OTCQB:GSAT) was the subject of a bearish article which provided a review of the company's onerous capital structure. Anyone involved with GSAT can benefit from understanding the risks involved if the FCC fails to approve GSAT's spectrum for terrestrial use. However, the article was only a half-truth. It failed to present the upside…the potential reward, which offsets the risks inherent in GSAT's capital structure.

    I quickly drafted a rebuttal, which was sent exclusively to my subscribers at PTT Research.

    Those issues have since been corrected and the article was re-released. The response was quite bullish. After the original article sent the stock as low as $1.63, my rebuttal (and the corrected article) sent the stock up to $1.90 (as I type this) -- a 15% return in 7 trading days!

    In the end, it all went to prove two things:

    1) Always be aware of whose analysis you are reading. In this case, I believe the author in question has a promising career ahead of him. He demonstrated some good skill in analyzing GSAT's capital structure. However, his lack of experience and bravado proved to be a lesson in the young man's development. I have no doubt that he'll bounce back. His corrected article was very well done.

    2) In order to appropriately evaluate any stock, an analyst must research its risks and its rewards. This is exactly how my staff at PTT Research approached GSAT, just before I predicted the stock would triple.

    It took less than four months for that prediction to come true. I discussed this and my other picks to triple in a follow-up contribution to Seeking Alpha.

    The reason for my prediction was simple. After Amazon Tested GSAT's Satellite Network, our analysis determined that GSAT's business and spectrum assets might be worth approximately $4 per share if the FCC approves a measure to expand the ways its spectrum can be utilized to include terrestrial Wi-Fi. Our analysis was validated by the work of Seeking Alpha contributor Paulo Santos:

    "GSAT's spectrum will cover the entire U.S. and be equivalent to around 7 billion MHz-Pop. This will be high-quality spectrum presently free of interference and potentially requiring only firmware/software upgrades to be used by existing devices (if configured as an additional Wi-Fi channel) (Source: GSAT "Understanding the Terrestrial Low Power Service." presentation)

    If we value this spectrum at a multiple comparable to Clearwire's, $0.325 per MHz-Pop, this gives us an indicative value - just for the spectrum - of $2.275 billion. Removing the $668.3 million in net debt, means that GSAT's equity might be worth as much as $1.6 billion, or $3.24 per share, a 405% upside from its present quote."

    This was an excellent assessment by Santos. For investors, this represented GSAT's potential reward.

    Our analysis was further validated when institutional buyers piled into GSAT on the news that LightSquared attracted an offer from Harbinger Capital Partners to buy the company out of bankruptcy for $3.3 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in debt. In other words, the demand for wireless and public Wi-Fi bandwidth is at an all-time high, leading to higher valuations for spectrum assets.

    Friday's bearish article completely ignored this data, rendering the rest of his argument moot.

    The author also presented an outright falsehood by assuming that retail investors were the main reason that GSAT's market value had increased by $1 billion. A move of that magnitude can rarely occur without institutional support. At worst, institutional short-sellers would stymie the move. As a consultant to institutions with ownership in GSAT, I can personally confirm that the author's claims were false. If you have a relationship with any institutional traders, they might provide you with similar confirmation.

    As experienced stock analysts, Paulo and I both know that reward is only half of the equation. Accordingly, we both discussed GSAT's downside risk. Specific to my perspective, the core business (assuming failure to receive FCC approval) is worth a fraction of the potential value of its spectrum assets. That being said, that core business was (and still is) improving. 2014 estimates were creeping upward and its book value was $400 million.

    In my opinion, the risk was that the stock was only worth 89-cents, fairly close to the 68-cent estimate cited in the bearish article. In other words, I agree with the author…on half of the risk/reward assessment.

    However, the author's failure to discuss (or even acknowledge) the potential reward made it impossible for him (or investors) to determine the risk-weighted value of GSAT's shares. In this case, that potential reward was/is likely between $2-5. If we simply take the midpoint of that range we derive an upside target of $3.50. Then, if we use the bearish author's downside target of 68-cents, we can calculate a coin-flip valuation in excess of $2 (($3.50 + $0.68) / 2 = $2.09).

    This is why I correctly predicted GSAT's 200% move in late-August.

    In fact, the shares reached $2.06 last month (by no coincidence in my opinion). Rather, it was simple math -- a matter of weighing the risks and rewards.

    Based on my company's winning low-risk / high-reward methodology (we've picked 10 triples), GSAT has graduated from our model portfolio. However, investors are still free to play the stock based on its current and ever-changing risk/reward profile.

    Based on the calculations presented above, shares of GSAT are undervalued by about 20%. Because of this, I still hold a modest stake in the company, mindful that GSAT's ultimate valuation will be largely determined by the FCC in the coming months. Bad news on that front will justifiably trigger a sell-off in the shares, leaving it significantly below current levels. Similarly, good news from the FCC should spark a rally that could potentially lead to a $5 valuation, which would make it a triple from current levels.

    In short (no pun intended), the bear case presented on Friday made a critical error. By ignoring the potential reward, the author mistook a great short for a stock with a wide range of potential outcomes - high risk / high reward. A mistake like that can still pay off (if the coin lands on tails). However, half of the time, this won't be the case, leading to subpar investment results for investors who fail to examine both sides of the equation…the risks and the reward.

    Disclosure: I am long GSAT, .

    Tags: GSAT
    Jan 15 11:36 AM | Link | 15 Comments
  • Easy Moves To Double Your Money In 12 Months

    Hi All,

    Today, I thought I'd share a sample of our free weekly newsletter, the PTT Insider (courtesy of PTT Research). To subscribe, just visit the PoisedToTriple website.

    In the meantime, enjoy this sample!

    Mark G.
    ____________________________________

    THE PTT INSIDER

    Welcome to this week's PTT Insider. Today we'll give you a play-by-play look at how a million-dollar portfolio would do this year, using my proprietary investment Methodology. We also have some good Q&A on Glu Mobile (GLUU).

    FYI, we provided this research to our PTT Newsletter subscribers on December 12. To find out if you should join them, check out my video at PTTResearch.com!

    OK, enough talk. Let's dive right in…

    12 EASY MOVES TO DOUBLE YOUR MONEY IN 12 MONTHS

    There are two things that I notice about some of my readers. 1) Many of you are trying TOO HARD to make a lot of money, and 2) related to #1, many of you "freak out" when one of my picks drops a lot in a short span of time.

    I think this article will appeal to everyone, but if what I just said describes you, this article is especially for you…and I can sum it up in 10 words: My picks are meant to make life easy for you.

    If you look at my track record, you will see that I'm pretty good at picking big winners. Of course, I'm sometimes wrong, but the winners crush the losers. Unfortunately, I have no way of knowing which picks will lose. If I did, I'd never be wrong! As it is, all we can do is let each pick play out and take our lumps along with our rewards…our big big rewards.

    Allow me to repeat myself -- My picks are meant to make life easy for you.

    Most people don't grow their own food or do their own oil changes. Why? Quite simply, there are experts that can do virtually anything for us -- cheaply and easily. Investing is no different.

    Please take no offense to what you're about to read. I'm only going to say it to help you become rich.

    Most of you didn't go to college to become stock market experts. Even fewer did the kind of post-graduate work required to truly become good at it. Despite this, most of you are trying to analyze stocks on your own. Many of you work very hard to analyze stocks. But most of you don't have the skills to consistently beat the stock market's returns (at least not by enough to make it worth the time you spend!).

    Because of this, you could make life easier for yourselves by simply investing in a mutual fund and spending your time on something more enjoyable!

    If this sounds familiar, don't feel ashamed. You are one of millions that fit this description. At one point, I did too. In fact, even after I had a college degree, I had no idea what I was doing. It took several more years of study, practice, experience, and mentorship to become truly good at this.

    Luckily, there is a happy medium. By "hiring" me, you have effectively outsourced your stock analysis. THAT is a SMART MOVE (not hiring me specifically, but hiring someone …I'm honored that it happens to be me). I'm your farmer. I'm your oil change guy. All you have to do is go to the grocery store or drop the car off at the shop. I do the rest.

    With my picks (and lessons on how to play them), your job becomes much easier. In fact, by following my picks and lessons this year, you should have conservatively doubled your money this year. Best of all, you only needed to make 12 moves to pull it off. That's right, JUST TWELVE.

    Check it out…

    Here are the results of a hypothetical portfolio, starting with $1M at the beginning of 2013. You'll notice that it starts with several of my picks that had already gone up a lot (STX, LGF, ATTU, and FB), but gives no credit to their past gains. This portfolio starts fresh on January 1. The 12 moves that made this portfolio are listed below.

     

     

    Company

    Ticker

    Bought / Owned

    Amount

    Price

    Sold

    Price

    Return

    Total

    Profit / Loss

    Seagate

    STX

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    31.59

    -

    49.53

    57%

    235,185.19

    85,185.19

    Lions Gate

    LGF

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    16.71

    9/5/2013

    36.42

    118%

    326,929.98

    176,929.98

    Attunity

    ATTU

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    7.17

    10/1/2013

    9.08

    27%

    189,958.16

    39,958.16

    Lantronix

    LTRX

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    1.98

    5/14/2013

    1.69

    -15%

    128,030.30

    -21,969.70

    Facebook

    FB

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    27.44

    10/18/2013

    54.18

    97%

    296,173.47

    146,173.47

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    1/1/2013

    150,000.00

    145.11

    3/4/2013

    151.76

    5%

    156,874.10

    6,874.10

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    1/1/2013

    50,000.00

    145.11

    6/3/2013

    164.52

    13%

    56,689.41

    6,689.41

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    1/1/2013

    50,000.00

    145.11

    7/11/2013

    163.30

    13%

    56,267.66

    6,267.66

    Himax

    HIMX

    3/4/2013

    150,000.00

    3.44

    9/20/2013

    10.32

    200%

    450,000.00

    300,000.00

    Cash

    Cash

    3/4/2013

    6,874.10

    1.00

    5/14/2013

    1.00

    0%

    6,874.10

    0.00

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    5/14/2013

    100,000.00

    163.67

    11/27/2013

    182.55

    12%

    111,533.57

    11,533.57

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    5/14/2013

    34,904.40

    163.67

    11/27/2013

    182.55

    12%

    38,930.12

    4,025.72

    Pixelworks

    PXLW

    6/3/2013

    25,000.00

    3.24

    -

    3.84

    19%

    29,629.63

    4,629.63

    Pixelworks

    PXLW

    6/3/2013

    25,000.00

    3.24

    -

    3.84

    19%

    29,629.63

    4,629.63

    Cash

    Cash

    6/3/2013

    6,689.41

    1.00

    8/26/2013

    1.00

    0%

    6,689.41

    0.00

    TechPrecision

    TPCS

    7/11/2013

    25,000.00

    0.40

    -

    0.62

    54%

    38,437.50

    13,437.50

    Cash

    Cash

    7/11/2013

    31,267.65

    1.00

    8/26/2013

    1.00

    0%

    31,267.65

    0.00

    Globalstar

    GSAT

    8/26/2013

    37,957.06

    0.67

    11/27/2013

    1.75

    163%

    99,887.00

    61,929.94

    Globalstar

    GSAT

    9/5/2013

    26,929.98

    0.64

    -

    2.01

    214%

    84,576.97

    57,646.99

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    9/5/2013

    300,000.00

    165.85

    10/24/2013

    175.76

    6%

    317,922.22

    17,922.22

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    9/20/2013

    250,000.00

    172.33

    11/21/2013

    180.87

    5%

    262,389.02

    12,389.02

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    9/20/2013

    200,000.00

    178.97

    11/27/2013

    180.87

    1%

    202,123.26

    2,123.26

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    10/1/2013

    189,958.16

    168.14

    11/27/2013

    180.87

    8%

    204,340.03

    14,381.87

    S&P ETF

    SPY

    10/18/2013

    296,173.47

    173.86

    11/27/2013

    180.87

    4%

    308,115.12

    11,941.65

    Glu Mobile

    GLUU

    10/24/2013

    317,922.22

    3.14

    -

    3.50

    11%

    353,865.65

    35,943.44

    Attunity

    ATTU

    11/21/2013

    262,389.02

    7.30

    -

    8.50

    16%

    305,521.46

    43,132.44

    YELLOW ALERT !!

    11/27/2013

    STOCK MARKET YELLOW ALERT !!

    Cash

    Cash

    11/27/2013

    964,929.11

    1.00

    8/26/2013

    1.00

    0%

    964,929.11

    0.00

              

    TOTAL

            

    1,041,775.15

    1) January 1 -- Open the year with 15% positions ($150,000) in STX, LGF, ATTU, LTRX, and FB (with 4 of the 5 already performing very well!). The remaining 20% sits in SPY for the time being. I use three transactions to represent the SPY purchase ($150K, $50K, and $50K) because it'll make it easier when I decide to sell them off to purchase another core position (likely $150K) or Speculative position (likely $50K).

    2) March 4 -- Sell the $150,000 investment in SPY for $156,874.10 to make room for HIMX. Buy $150,000 HIMX and leave the remaining $6,874.10 in cash.

    3) May 14 -- LTRX's fundamentals aren't coming around as I envisioned. Let's cut our losses by selling the $150,000 investment in LTRX for $128,030.30; invest this + the $6,874.10 of cash ($134,904.40) into SPY. Let's record this as two separate investments ($100,000 + $34,904.40). We'll likely sell the smaller block later for a new Speculative investment (or both blocks for a Core investment).

    4) June 3 -- Sell the $50,000 investment in SPY (from Jan 1) for $56,689.41 (SPY price is adjusted for the .694 dividend paid on 3/15 -- all SPY sales will be treated this way) and make two $25,000 investments in PXLW. The reason for only $25,000 is that it is a Speculative pick. The reason for making two $25,000 investments is that it is currently our only Speculative investment, so we can afford to take a bigger chance. If we find more Speculative picks, we'll sell some of the PXLW to make sure we don't expose more than 10-20% of our portfolio to higher-risk names. We leave the remaining $6,689.41 in cash.

    5) July 11 -- TPCS is a "Ten Bagger or Bust". This is the most enticing, but also the riskiest type of investment. Let's only invest $25,000 by selling our final $50,000 investment in SPY from Jan 1 (for $56,267.65). $25K goes to TPCS, leaving the remaining $31,267.65 in cash.

    6) Aug 26 -- GSAT is poised to triple! Use our cash to buy $37,957.06 of GSAT at 67-cents. We only invest $37,957.06 because it is speculative. We can buy more at a later date. Nearly 10% of our portfolio is now in Speculative stocks.

    7) Sep 5 -- LGF TRIPLES!! Everyone now knows and loves this stock, so it's time to sell. We get $326,929.98 (a $176,929.98 profit!). Our $1M portfolio is well on its way to doubling, so we can have up to $200,000 in Speculative stocks. So, let's buy $26,929.98 more GSAT and put the rest in SPY.

    8) Sep 20 -- HIMX TRIPLES!! Everyone now knows and loves this stock, so it's time to sell. We net a $300,000 profit on a $150,000 investment! Let's put this $450,000 in SPY for now (in two blocks -- $250,000 and $200,000).

    9) Oct 1 -- ATTU TRIPLES!! This stock hasn't matured yet, but it's near the top of our risk/reward chart, so it's time to sell (for now). We get $189,958.16, which we invest in SPY.

    10) Oct 18 -- FB TRIPLES!! Everyone HATED this stock when we picked it...now everyone loves it. Time to sell! We get $296,173.47, which we invest in SPY.

    11) Oct 24 -- GLUU is poised to triple! We have nearly doubled our money, so we should start doubling our initial investments. Let's sell the SPY we bought on Sept 5 for $317,922.22 and put it in GLUU.

    12) Nov 21 -- Last night, ATTU plummeted in post-market trading after announcing a secondary offering of $20 million (which was done at $7 per share). Our technical guru, Zev Spiro warned investors to sell ATTU at $9…and I told investors to pile back in on Nov 21. We do this by selling the $250,000 block of SPY we bought on Sept 20 for $262,389.02 and putting it back into ATTU.

    There was one more move to be made this year, but the 12th one put our portfolio over 100% for the year. With that said, let's finish what we started:

    13) Nov 27 -- STOCK MARKET YELLOW ALERT!! The stock market looks expensive. A lot of our picks have tripled and we've almost doubled our money this year!! Let's trim our excessive Speculative positions. In this case, we only need to trim the first investment we made in GSAT, bringing us down to a more reasonable investment size. PXLW has become less speculative in recent months, but hasn't gone up a lot, so we'll keep that entire position. That gets our Speculative plays back down to 10%.

    Let's also sell all of our holdings in SPY. That leaves us with about $1M in stocks and $1M in cash. That's right...we started the year with $1M in stocks and now have about $1M in stocks AND $1M in cash. We have doubled our money!!!

    * * * * * * *

    So there you have it. You only needed twelve moves to double your money this year. Of course, by taking more risks or doing more effective trading, you could have made a lot more than 100%. However, when dealing with a multi-million dollar portfolio, I prefer to be more conservative. I also prefer to spend more time on the beach. With my method, you didn't need to think too much or fret over every up/down move in our picks. By employing a professional analyst and a solid methodology to get the job done, you didn't have to do much work at all -- just 12 easy moves.

    In fact, even I outsource some of my investing. One of my mentors, John Cassarini, owns and runs JAC Capital, an investment fund. I've invested a big chunk of my cash in the fund. The money is doing great, which comes as no surprise -- after all, John taught me much of what I know about investing!

    In closing, as I write this (Dec 11), this portfolio is now worth $2M+, double what it was worth on Jan 1. I continue to seek new triples…and remain worried that the market is at precariously high levels. We have some potential winners lined up, which I am currently investigating. In the meantime, it's almost year-end, which means that our annual Spring Portfolio picks will be coming out soon!

    Last year, our main Spring Portfolio returned 41% in less than 3 months. Our secondary Spring Portfolio reeled in 9% in less than a week! If we included those investments, I estimate that our mock portfolio would likely be worth $100,000 more.

    The Moral of the Story - There's no need to overthink things. Stocks go up and down every day, but over time, good picks go up (and great picks go up a lot). Don't work too hard. JUST FOLLOW THE RULES AND KEEP IT SIMPLE!

    I'm looking forward to sharing our new Spring Portfolio picks with you (along with new picks to triple).

    Stay tuned :^)

    MEMBER Q&A

    For our paying subscribers, we provide the opportunity to ask questions. I answer most of them every week in the PTT Newsletter. To give you an idea of what our subscribers get, I thought I'd share one of the questions I received a few weeks ago…just to give you a feel for another one of the many extra services our paying subscribers receive. Enjoy.

    Q. Hi Mark, I read the December 10th GLUU Wedbush Securities Dreamin' Consumer Conference Transcript many times over and I could not come off with anything other than an extremely positive outlook and I also noticed how snugly each of your points (analysis) on GLUU fits with everything Mr. Ludwig said at the conference. I especially liked some of his points related to the specific numbers on the downloads, time spent, ads, etc. My questions:

    1. Did you also conceive everything said at the conference as extremely bullish for GLUU in the coming months? If yes, was it better than what you expected, on par or not as good as you expected?

    2. The only slight not-so-positive (I think) point Mr. Ludwig made about was being mindful of the 2014 outlook provided, which actually is not too much at all considering all the aspects. Am I reading too much into the way it was said OR is it something to take caution of?

    3. What are the near-term catalysts that you see for GLUU?

    4. The short interest keeps rising and is over 16 million now. Boy, I hope you are right on GLUU (for both your sake as well as mine). The way this is winding up with all the positive aspects and the ill-advised (hopefully) shorts, GLUU might very well turn out to be one of your biggest winners yet. Do you agree?

    What a gift it will be for your PTT Research subscribers as your first pick for them instilling more strongly the confidence and trust you have earned from all of us. Thank you and Best Regards.

    A. First of all, I applaud you for reading the conference notes. That's exactly the type of homework that instills confidence in one's investments.

    Beyond that, despite your many questions, there really isn't much to say. I made this pick a few weeks ago and nothing has changed in my eyes. That being said, here are your answers:

    1) The conference was indeed bullish, but not much more or less so than I already perceived and discussed a few weeks ago

    2) As I discussed a few weeks ago, management guides conservatively, so this is not bearish - it's normal

    3) We're looking for this stock to triple, so I don't worry about near-term catalysts…but obviously, the answer is more games. Deer Hunter keeps dishing out new levels, new locations, and new things to shoot (i.e. zombie animals!). Robocop will come out a month early (in January) and GLUU excels at shoot-em-up games. It could be another big hit. Looking further down the line, Apple's deal with China Mobile can only extend GLUU's reach into the Chinese market. Finally, King (makers of the mega-hit, Candy Crush) is expected to go public next year. In the meantime, the stock seems to be in the latter stages of a cup-and-handle formation. If so, that's one of the most explosive formations. Breaking out of that would almost assuredly send the stock back over $4 in short order.

    4) If I knew which picks would succeed and fail, I'd always be right. I like GLUU a lot, but history has proven that to be meaningless. Just like all of my other picks, I think GLUU will triple. Based on my track record it has a great chance of doing so.

    Cheers!

    RECENT ARTICLES

    1. PTT Research Articles
    2. Relationships With Apple (AAPL) Will Make These Stocks Triple
    3. Shares Of Techprecision (OTCQB:TPCS) Are Still Poised To Triple
    4. Globalstar (OTCQB:GSAT) Triples! Who's Next?
    5. Shares of Glu Mobile (GLUU) Are Poised To Triple
    6. Stock Market Yellow Alert!
    7. PTT's Exclusive Interview With Attunity's CEO
    8. Globalstar Gains 33% In 2 Weeks! Who's Next?
    9. Lions Gate Roars To A 200% Return!
    10. QAD Delivers A Beat & Raise Quarter
    11. Pixelworks Pops 40% On Strong Earnings Guidance
    12. Attunity Gets Back On Track To Triple
    13. Himax is a Gold Mine: Who's Next?
    14. Become A Billionaire Like Buffett
    15. Why Aren't I Making Money Yet?

    GET MORE FROM POISED TO TRIPLE & PTT RESEARCH -- Follow us on Twitter or Facebook !

    PTT Research is a limited liability company. Poised To Triple is a property of Pipeline Data LLC. This information is confidential and for the information of the addressee only, and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, copies made or circulated, or disclosed by the addressee to another party, without the prior written consent of Pipeline Data LLC. Information and opinions presented herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Pipeline Data LLC makes no representation at their accuracy or completeness. This communication reflects Pipeline Data, LLC's opinion as to the securities mentioned herein, but is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy them. Copyright 2013 Pipeline Data, LLC and PTT Research, LLC. All rights reserved.

    Disclosure: I am long ATTU, GLUU, GSAT, HIMX, PXLW, TPCS.

    Tags: ATTU, FB, GLUU, GSAT, HIMX, LGF, LTRX, PXLW, STX, TPCS
    Jan 13 10:39 AM | Link | 16 Comments
  • Poised To Triple Performance Update

    Here's the complete set of performance figures for each of my official selections since I started donating picks to Seeking Alpha in 2009.

    To find out how to get early access to my picks check out my video at PTT Research! You can also find out about my free weekly newsletter at PoisedToTriple.com.

     

     

    CORE PORTFOLIO

              

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current / Final Price

    Current / Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak ROI

     

    Current Classification

    Lionbridge

    LIOX

    1/20/2009

    1.23

    3.69

    200%

     

    6.25

    408%

     

    Tripled

    IGOI (1:12 split)

    IGOI

    8/6/2010

    18.72

    56.16

    200%

     

    62.28

    233%

     

    Tripled

    Calix

    CALX

    9/19/2010

    12.45

    21.91

    76%

     

    22.97

    84%

     

    Sold

    Zhone Networks

    ZHNE

    10/24/2010

    2.01

    1.61

    -20%

     

    6.40

    218%

     

    Stopped Out

    Astea

    ATEA

    11/12/2010

    2.25

    6.75

    200%

     

    7.64

    240%

     

    Tripled

    Majesco

    COOL

    9/30/2011

    2.00

    1.60

    20%

     

    3.47

    74%

     

    Sold

    Seagate

    STX

    11/11/2011

    17.94

    53.82

    200%

     

    57.57

    221%

     

    Tripled

    Lions Gate

    LGF

    3/20/2012

    12.14

    36.42

    200%

     

    37.81

    211%

     

    Tripled

    Attunity

    ATTU

    4/27/2012

    3.36

    10.08

    200%

     

    11.22

    234%

     

    Tripled*

    Lantronix

    LTRX

    7/9/2012

    1.82

    1.69

    -7%

     

    2.45

    35%

     

    Sold

    Rainmaker

    RMKR

    9/23/2012

    1.04

    0.83

    -20%

     

    1.37

    32%

     

    Stopped Out

    Facebook

    FB

    10/29/2012

    18.06

    54.18

    200%

     

    58.58

    224%

     

    Tripled

    Himax

    HIMX

    3/4/2013

    3.44

    10.32

    200%

     

    11.06

    222%

     

    Tripled

    Glu Mobile

    GLUU

    10/24/2013

    3.14

    3.94

    25%

     

    4.14

    32%

     

    Great Find

               

    Averages

        

    120%

      

    176%

      
               

    * ATTU is still an active pick

             
               
               

    SPECULATIVE PORTFOLIO

             

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current / Final Price

    Current / Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak ROI

     

    Current Classification

    Meetme (Quepasa)

    MEET

    11/12/2010

    6.58

    8.82

    34%

     

    15.45

    135%

     

    Sold

    Cereplast

    CERP

    5/8/2011

    4.92

    3.94

    -20%

     

    5.30

    8%

     

    Stopped Out

    Atrinsic

    ATRN

    7/24/2011

    3.26

    2.61

    -20%

     

    6.15

    89%

     

    Stopped Out

    Pixelworks

    PXLW

    6/3/2013

    3.24

    5.94

    83%

     

    6.18

    91%

     

    Speculative

    TechPrecision

    TPCS

    7/11/2013

    0.40

     

    200%

     

    1.35

    238%

     

    Tripled

    Globalstar

    GSAT

    8/25/2013

    0.67

    2.01

    200%

     

    2.06

    210%

     

    Tripled

               

    Averages

        

    80%

      

    113%

      
               
               

    VALUE PORTFOLIO

              

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current / Final Price

    Current / Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak ROI

     

    Current Classification

    BroadVision (Long)

    BVSN

    2/8/2010

    12.64

    37.92

    200%

     

    44.75

    254%

     

    Tripled

    RealNetworks

    RNWK

    2/17/2010

    16.23

    12.98

    -20%

     

    19.83

    22%

     

    Stopped Out

    QAD Software

    QADA

    3/24/2013

    11.73

    16.97

    45%

     

    17.25

    47%

     

    Gold Mine

               

    Averages

        

    75%

      

    108%

      
               
               

    ACQUIRED PICKS

              

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current / Final Price

    Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak ROI

     

    Current Classification

    Voltaire

    VOLT

    1/22/2010

    6.10

    Acquired

    43%

     

    8.73

    43%

     

    Acquired

    Novell

    NOVL

    5/21/2010

    6.06

    Acquired

    8%

     

    6.53

    8%

     

    Acquired

    Magma Design

    LAVA

    8/15/2010

    2.77

    Acquired

    158%

     

    7.15

    158%

     

    Acquired

    Occam Networks

    OCNW

    8/15/2010

    5.41

    Acquired

    82%

     

    9.84

    82%

     

    Acquired

    Pervasive Software

    PVSW

    3/20/2011

    5.36

    Acquired

    48%

     

    7.93

    48%

     

    Acquired

               

    Averages

     

    11 months

      

    68%

      

    68%

      
               
               

    SHORT PORTFOLIO

              

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current / Final Price

    Current / Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak ROI

     

    Current Classification

    Broadvision (Short)

    BVSN

    1/24/2012

    44.75

    17.00

    62%

     

    7.81

    83%

     

    Covered

               

    Averages

        

    62%

      

    83%

      
               
               

    SPRING SMALL CAP PORTFOLIOS

            

    Company
    (click for article)

    Ticker

    Date

    Initial Price

    Current Price

    Current / Final ROI

     

    Peak Price

    Peak Return

     

    Current Classification

    Bacterin International

    BONE

    5/4/2011

    3.40

    3.71

    9%

     

    4.90

    44%

     

    Closed

    Harvard Bioscience

    HBIO

    5/4/2011

    5.48

    5.32

    -3%

     

    5.78

    5%

     

    Closed

    Glu Mobile

    GLUU

    5/4/2011

    3.82

    4.70

    23%

     

    5.75

    51%

     

    Closed

    interCLICK

    ICLK

    5/4/2011

    7.02

    6.85

    -2%

     

    7.02

    0%

     

    Acquired

    TowerStream

    TWER

    5/4/2011

    4.20

    5.30

    26%

     

    5.70

    36%

     

    Closed

    P.A.M. (Short)

    PTSI

    5/4/2011

    11.01

    9.45

    14%

     

    9.40

    15%

     

    Closed

    Averages

     

    1.3 months

      

    11%

      

    25%

      
               

    Media General

    MEG

    3/17/2013

    5.50

     

    92%

     

    10.60

    93%

     

    Acquired

    Perfumania (Short)

    PERF

    3/17/2013

    5.91

     

    8%

     

    5.25

    11%

     

    Closed

    PDI, Inc (Short)

    PDII

    3/24/2013

    6.08

    5.84

    32%

     

    3.82

    37%

     

    Closed

    LCNB Corp

    LCNB

    4/14/2013

    16.98

    17.80

    24%

     

    22.28

    31%

     

    Closed

    Palmetto Bancshares

    PLMT

    4/25/2013

    11.98

    13.20

    14%

     

    15.95

    33%

     

    Closed

    Averages

     

    2.9 months

      

    21%

      

    41%

      
               

    Berkshire Bancorp

    BERK

    6/19/2013

    7.96

    7.34

    1%

     

    7.56

    5%

     

    Closed

    Intevac

    IVAC

    6/19/2013

    5.36

     

    6%

     

    4.91

    8%

     

    Closed

    MTR Gaming Group

    MNTG

    6/19/2013

    3.55

    5.22

    6%

     

    3.15

    11%

     

    Closed

    eGain

    EGAN

    6/23/2013

    7.63

    10.90

    15%

     

    8.95

    17%

     

    Closed

    Marketo

    MKTO

    6/23/2013

    20.88

     

    7%

     

    22.99

    10%

     

    Closed

    Planet Payment

    PLPM

    6/23/2013

    2.85

     

    -5%

     

    2.90

    2%

     

    Closed

    Averages

     

    6 days

      

    5%

      

    9%

      
               
               

    Pick Performance*

             

    2009 Picks

    200.0%

             

    2010 Picks

    56.3%

             

    2011 Picks

    45.6%

             

    2012 Picks

    114.6%

             

    2013 Picks

    161.2%

             

    * Excludes our Spring portfolios

             
    Tags: HIMX, ATTU, GLUU, TPCS, GSAT, PXLW, FB, STX, LGF
    Jan 07 1:55 AM | Link | 8 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.