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Mark Gomes
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Disclaimer: This biography is required reading for anyone considering an investment in any of Mark Gomes' selections. It contains critical information about his research and trading methodologies. Mr. Gomes is currently the CEO of Pipeline Data, LLC and a contributing analyst to PTT Research.... More
My company:
PTT Research & Pipeline Data, LLC
My blog:
Poised To Triple
My book:
Faster Than Forty
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  • Coming Out Of Hiding

    At 2PM today, ahead of Glu Mobile's earning's announcement, I released an article to PTT subscribers. The purpose was to address the movement of my picks in recent months (juxtaposed against their fundamental performance). The powers-that-be at PTT will determine whether that piece gets released to the general public (I hope it does).

    Either way, the following is a note that I posted to the PTT Members' Forum, which I've reprinted below...

    Hi,

    I trust that you all saw the article I sent out today.

    The timing was intentional. I can't force people to follow the rules of the Methodology, nor can I force them to remain patient in the face of declining stock prices. There was nothing I could do or say to change people's minds about me after Matt Margolis' stock (GTAT) went under.

    While I must (and do) accept full responsibility for endorsing Matt (at the time, his track record was nearly-flawless), I can't explain why people would judge my stock-picking ability based on someone else's pick (though I fault nobody who has told me "from now on, just stick to stock-picking, dummy").

    By the way, you can read the whole truth regarding my role in the GTAT fiasco here: wallstreetforensics.com/lessons-learned-.../

    As a reminder, GTAT was never an official PTT Portfolio (my personal portfolio) pick. However, people are entitled to their opinions and actions. Despite my minimal involvement with GTAT, I accept that I was at the center of why many people got involved with it.

    I (and many of you) have paid a heavy price for that. It is very clear that I should stick to picking my stocks and keep my nose out of other people's business. Hard lesson learned.

    Moving on to my portfolio -- As I've said before, 90% of an elite investor's gains occurs in 10% of the time. That means that we spend 90% of the time in a state of boredom or frustration. This is why the Methodology is so important. It emphasizes the elimination of emotion and focusing on facts… and the fact is, our official picks have all been announcing consistently great news. Looking at the stocks' performance, that may be hard to believe it, but just research it for yourself (or re-read the article I sent today).

    As long as my companies are doing well, I don't worry about what the stocks do. It's a simple equation:

    Progress in the business + a lower stock price = a more attractive stock.

    Many act like it's the opposite, but today's action in GLUU and AERO reveal the truth. Good news drives stocks and good companies report good news. Hopefully today's action helps to get my credibility out of the penalty box and gets our stocks moving in the same direction as the underlying businesses.

    In closing, I want to offer my deepest thanks to everyone who has kept the faith. Today doesn't make up for the past 4 months, but I think we can all agree that it's clear validation of these companies and their prospects... and that's what the Methodology is all about.

    The rest comes in its own time.

    Cheers and Stay Tuned,

    Mark G.

    Tags: GLUU, AERO, JAKK, MATR, QADA
    Feb 04 8:49 PM | Link | 34 Comments
  • Tripling Your Money

    In 2008, I semi-retired after a blessed 14-year career serving hundreds of Wall Street's most well-known institutions. In 2009, I decided to pay it forward by donating five years of time to provide investment lessons and picks to Main Street investors.

    At the end of those five years, I launched PTT Research to continue providing my services to interested subscribers. Thousands have signed up, presumably drawn by my Seeking Alpha performance. Thousands more subscribe to my free weekly newsletter at PoisedToTriple.com.

    During my "tour of duty", I provided 33 official selections, which have been meticulously tracked via the PoisedToTriple Portfolio Tracker. Of the 33, seventeen (over 50%) have either tripled or been acquired with profits averaging 161%. Seven proved to be bad picks, with losses averaging 17%. Balancing modest losses with large gains is the cornerstone of my investment philosophy.

    There are a few things to understand:

    * Some of my picks are meant to be short-term in nature, but most many require patience to reap great rewards. Indeed, my biggest winner ever declined by more than 30% in 9 months before rising more than 1,000% in the following 15 months.

    The lesson is clear -never judge a stock by how it acts. The value of a company often has nothing to do with the stock's direction (mainly because 95% of investors don't have the 10-year education required to properly evaluate them). In reality, a company's true value eventually gets reflected in its stock price.

    * My aim is to be early, so a wait is to be expected. Investors should also expect to hear a lot of bearish comments regarding my selections. This is because the biggest opportunities are usually unknown, unloved, or even hated.

    Accordingly, I attract numerous detractors who don't understand my method. If they have a professional background, I might challenge them to a public debate. To date, all have declined, citing time or a desire not to get involved in a "dog and pony show". Of course, by having gotten involved in the first place, they have spent time and created a show. Indeed, most haven't done the homework my team has.

    My advice is to check the resume and track record of the detractor. In many cases, you will find an unqualified individual attempting to make a name for themselves or scare investors for their own benefit. In other words, beware of whose words you trust.

    * Speaking of which, my "team" consists of my mentor of 20 years, several junior analysts, and industry experts to whom I allocate a six-figure annual budget.

    My picks are NOT based on current math (i.e. P/E ratios). The value of a stock is determined by a DCF analysis, the gold standard for stock valuation analysis. A DCF analysis are focused on a company's future. Thus, my team focuses on ascertaining the potential future inherent in the company's current strengths and capabilities, coupled with a forward-looking assessment of the markets they serve.

    My selection of HIMX and PXLW (both tripled) were perfect examples. In both cases, our expert consultants helped us determine that their technologies would command the attention of GOOG and AAPL, respectively.

    Skeptics balked and accused me of being a "pump and dump artist". But within months, GOOG announced a deal with HIMX and AAPL was found to be a large PXLW customer (via an SEC filing). Those skeptics disappeared, but new ones seem to appear for every new selection I make. I'm not always right, so some will occasionally prevail... but even a broken clock is right twice a day!

    A strong mind is required to overcome uninformed negative biases and commentary. My resume, track record, Methodology, and research rigor are meant to provide the confidence required to do so. If a detractor (or your own negative bias) isn't backed by 100+ hours of expert-based research, the bias should be deemed suspect.

    * Some of my selections (like GSAT, which also tripled) are not based on the idea of being right about its future. That may sound counter-intuitive, but stocks aren't black and white. They are always gray, reflecting 1) the potential reward for success and 2) the potential penalty for failure.

    In simplistic terms, I believed that GSAT (which was trading at 67-cents at the time) was actually worth $2 based on roughly 50/50 odds success (worth $4+) and failure (with the potential penalty being bankruptcy). FYI, the penalty is why I classified the investment as "Speculative".

    Of course, such a "bet" is worth $2 ($4 * 0.5 + $0 * 0.5 = $2), which was 3x its price at the time. In other words, I was seeking a fair value more so than determining if GSAT's business would succeed or fail. After all, there is no such thing as a sure future, so all stock evaluation is an exercise in handicapping.

    Those who knocked the selection on the basis of pending success or failure were missing the point. Sure enough, the stock went to $2 (and actually continued on to $4+). In fact, even after an in-depth and damning report surfaced against GSAT, the stock continued to trade over $2.

    I still have no comment on whether GSAT will succeed or fail, but continue to believe that $2 is a "fair" price for the coin flip (and I don't like "fair" values -- I seek bargains, so we have moved on).

    * No matter what the situation might be, the rules of my Methodology are critical to your success. The Methodology represents the cumulative knowledge gleaned from my 25-years of experience, personal mentors, and investing legends like Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Benjamin Graham (Buffett's mentor). In fact, the Methodology contains several video lessons from these legends.

    Here's my complete Portfolio track record as of October 31, 2014:

    CORE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    LionbridgeLIOX1/20/20091.233.69200% 7.50510%
    IGOI (1:12 split)OTCPK:IGOI8/6/201018.7256.16200% 62.28233%
    CalixCALX9/19/201012.4521.9176% 22.9784%
    Zhone NetworksZHNE10/24/20102.011.61-20% 6.62229%
    AsteaATEA11/12/20102.256.75200% 7.64240%
    MajescoCOOL9/30/20112.001.6020% 3.4774%
    SeagateSTX11/11/201117.9453.82200% 63.27253%
    Lions GateLGF3/20/201212.1436.42200% 37.81211%
    AttunityATTU4/27/20123.3610.08200% 12.00257%
    LantronixLTRX7/9/20121.821.69-7% 3.3182%
    RainmakerRMKR9/23/20121.040.83-20% 1.3732%
    FacebookFB10/29/201218.0654.18200% 80.82348%
    HimaxHIMX3/4/20133.4410.32200% 16.15369%
    Glu MobileGLUU10/24/20133.143.8723% 7.60142%
             
    Averages 385 days  119%  219%
             
             
             
    SPECULATIVE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    Meetme (Quepasa)MEET11/12/20106.588.8234% 15.45135%
    CereplastCERP5/8/20114.923.94-20% 5.308%
    AtrinsicOTCPK:ATRN7/24/20113.262.61-20% 6.1589%
    Pixelworks **PXLW6/3/20133.249.72200% 9.83203%
    TechPrecisionTPCS7/11/20130.401.20200% 1.35238%
    GlobalstarGSAT8/25/20130.672.01200% 4.53581%
    Delia ***DLIA11/26/20131.100.79-28% 1.4532%
    AeroGrowAERO1/30/20144.103.93-4% 10.45155%
    Mattersight ****MATR3/7/20146.055.42-10% 7.8530%
             
    Averages 199 days  61%  163%
             
    ** Upgraded to Core, but remains situated in the Speculative tracker where it was initially selected.   
    *** Initiation price adjusted to reflect our coverage relaunch at $0.70 on 2/20/14    
    **** Upgraded to Momentum, but remains situated in the Speculative tracker where it was initially selected. 
             
             
    MOMENTUM PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    JAKKS PacificJAKK6/9/20147.736.38-17% 9.4823%
             
             
    VALUE PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    BroadVision (Long)BVSN2/8/201012.6437.92200% 44.75254%
    RealNetworksRNWK2/17/201016.2312.98-20% 19.8322%
    QAD SoftwareQADA3/24/201311.7321.5183% 23.0797%
             
    Averages 490 days  88%  124%
             
             
    ACQUIRED PICKS        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceFinal ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    VoltaireOTC:VOLT1/22/20106.10Acquired43% 8.7343%
    NovellNOVL5/21/20106.06Acquired8% 6.538%
    Magma DesignLAVA8/15/20102.77Acquired158% 7.15158%
    Occam NetworksOCNW8/15/20105.41Acquired82% 9.8482%
    Pervasive SoftwarePVSW3/20/20115.36Acquired48% 7.9348%
             
    Averages 336 days  68%  68%
             
             
    SHORT PORTFOLIO        
    Company
    (click for article)
    TickerDateInitial PriceCurrent / Final PriceCurrent / Final ROI Peak PricePeak ROI
    Broadvision (Short)BVSN1/24/201244.7517.0062% 7.8183%
             
    Averages 105 days  62%  83%

    You will notice that my recent selections have yet to perform. That is to be expected. As previously noted, my picks often take time to mature. We continue to provide subscribers with updated information on how our investments are progressing.

    In addition to the above, my picks are usually "small caps" an asset class that has had a tough year. In fact, I warned PTT Research customers of this in November 2013 and July 2014 via my well-known "Stock Market Yellow Alerts". In both cases, investors saved millions by taking our recommended actions to avoid the market corrections that soon ensued.

    It's all a part of the holistic services I seek to provide. At its core is a foundation of education that will serve my readers long after I'm gone. After all, if you give someone a fish, they eat for a day; teach them how to fish and they will eat for life.

    Kindest Regards,

    Mark Gomes

    Nov 02 7:06 PM | Link | 18 Comments
  • TechPrecision (TPCS) Update
    Today, I thought I'd share a piece that was previously released for PTT subscribers.

    Per our publicly available Portfolio Tracker TPCS exited our portfolio at $1.20 per share (back in late-2013). However, many have requested an update on why we haven't re-initiated coverage, especially in light of Mevion's IPO filing.

    Indeed, some speculated that the IPO filing by Mevion (TPCS's most promising customer) could drive interest in TPCS shares. The S-1 (Mevion's IPO filing with the SEC) stated:

    "We market the MEVION S250 to a broad range of worldwide customers, including university research and teaching hospitals, community hospitals, private practices, government institutions and freestanding cancer centers. Although the length of our sales process varies based on the customer, it is typically lengthy, lasting up to 36 months or more from initial customer contact to contract execution, nine to 12 months for the customization of a customer's facility for the system, and 18 to 24 months to install the system.

    As of the date of this prospectus, we have installed only one MEVION S250. In December 2013, the Siteman Cancer Center at Barnes-Jewish Hospital, or BJH, a National Cancer Institute Designated Comprehensive Cancer Center, became the first center to treat patients with a MEVION S250. During the three-month period ended June 30, 2014, we recognized revenue of $7.6 million from our first installed MEVION S250. BJH is rapidly ramping up the use of the MEVION S250 in its clinical practice, recently treating 18 different patients per day with a total of approximately 50 treatment fields, or unique radiation beams delivered from different directions. This represents a utilization rate of 60% to 70%.

    On March 22, 2014, we delivered a recall notice to BJH regarding a defect we identified in an advanced software feature for the patient positioning system of the MEVION S250.

    On September 11, 2014, we announced the introduction of Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy, an alternative beam shaping technology, for the MEVION S250, which we named HYPERSCAN. We expect that HYPERSCAN will be available for delivery in fiscal 2016.

    We promptly updated our software to resolve this defect and the FDA closed the recall notice on April 3, 2014.

    As of June 30, 2014, we had 21 signed system purchase contracts that also cover service during the warranty period, of which 17 are included in our backlog at a total value of $257.6 million, and one service contract for post-warranty services at a total value of $3.0 million. Included in our backlog are signed system purchase contracts from our distributors in Japan and South Korea of $65.8 million and $20.0 million, respectively, and we do not yet have regulatory approval to sell the MEVION S250 in either jurisdiction."

    This aligns nicely with the news a couple months ago that TPCS had obtained new funding, partially in order to purchase a second gantry machine. Presumably the purpose of the gantry machine is to double TPCS's S-250 manufacturing capabilities. The company is understandably tight-lipped about the gantry, Mevion's IPO, timelines for manufacturing, and its current financial state. Accordingly, our disposition toward the stock is to wait and see.

    Investors who wish to take a flyer on the shares should be aware that there is a real risk of 100% loss, just as there is potential for another 200% run. There's a reason we have remained on the sidelines. I won't be getting anyone involved until we have clarity on TPCS's financial situation and Mevion's ramp-up. I'd rather pay 50 cents a share for a company that is relatively "safe" than pay 14 cents a share for a company that is still at risk of critical failure.

    Usually, it doesn't pay to show up before the ballgame starts. It may get rained out. Better to show up for the start of the second inning… and leave before the 9th to beat the rush.

    Tags: TPCS
    Oct 22 8:00 PM | Link | 7 Comments
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