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Mark Hayes

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  • AbbVie Versus Gilead In Hepatitis C, With Comments On Biotech [View article]
    ACHN announced some results this morning regarding its Hep-C drug. Must not have been good their stock is down 22%, this should be a positive for GILD.
    Dec 23, 2014. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commentary On Gilead Sciences' Recent Plunge [View article]
    15% reaction to share price seems way over done.

    Doing the math from what I've read today shows me the following:

    Express Scripts covers 25 million people or 1/13th of the U.S. population (7.7%).

    From here, Genotype 1 which is all Abbvie's drug is approved for is 70% of all Hep C patients, while Gilead's drugs are approved for 100% of people infected with the disease. So this reduces the 7.7% to a 5.4% share of U.S. Hep C population covered by Express Scripts.

    Out of these, 45% of Genotype 1a and 1b can be treated with an 8 week regiment of Harvoni for 63k as opposed to the 12 week course of Abbvie's treatment for 83k. This brings Abbvie's potential share with Express Scripts to less than 3% of the U.S. Hep C population.

    So if Gilead was supposed to get $18B in sales from this next year, this deal only reduces it by $540 million, not enough to justify wiping out $22B in market cap today.
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:39 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pipeline firms slammed after OPEC decision to maintain output [View news story]
    Wrong, from OKS's November 4th press release:
    "A $1.00-per-barrel change in the price of crude oil would change 12-month forward net margin by approximately $1.6 million."
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Latest Sears Short Squeeze Flies In The Face Of Logic [View article]
    Paulo, Great article, as usual. Everything you say makes sense, what doesn't make sense is that a guy like Berkowitz continues to buy substantial amounts of this stock. He didn't get to be as rich as he is by doing stupid things. The only logical conclusion one can come to is that he knows something that the rest of us don't. It can only be that the real estate is in fact worth more than what you think it is. Interest rates are substantially lower now than they were in 2005. My understanding is commercial real estate values are directly related to the level of interest rates. If they can lease these the buildings that they are emptying out for a lot more than what the book value shows that they are worth, the whole thing can possibly work for Berkowitz. That's the only logical conclusion I can come to. Why else would he be pouring more $ into this ???
    Oct 27, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tallying Up Model S Sales Up To August And Its Implications [View article]
    It seems that the likely scenario is that Tesla will in fact miss the 3rd quarter forecast, they'll blame it on the summer shutdown lasting "longer than anticipated". Then they will reiterate that 13000 cars will be sold in the fourth quarter. They will than have 2 or 3 months to come up with a reason as to why they won't be making that number.
    Analysts of course will eat it up and raise their price targets.
    Sep 16, 2014. 06:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting to acquire Kodiak [View news story]
    That's 5% over the AVERAGE stock price for last 2 months. 13.90 a share
    Jul 14, 2014. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Valero Energy Is A Great Buying Opportunity In A Good-Yielding Stock [View article]
    Nice article, except you did not address the issue of the tightening crack spread which is what is putting quite a bit of pressure on the refiners. I would not be a buyer at this point, not until the spread starts to go the other way.
    Jul 10, 2014. 01:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: 7 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    The recent insider selling is not 'intensive'. The chart that you provided for the last 18 months clearly shows that the selling in June was pretty average, in fact, kind of on the light side.
    Jun 26, 2014. 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Takes From Arch Coal's Earnings [View article]
    I think that coal stocks have been more tied to the steel industry lately than to what happens to thermal coal and to Nat Gas. Until met coal starts to move up, I don't think these stocks are going to move up much. $5.50 gas and these these things are still going down, I'll keep my eye on steel stocks, when they turn around, than so will the coal companies, in my opinion.
    Feb 5, 2014. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In [View article]
    Paulo, I see that you're still short, as am I, do you plan on covering all or part of your position ?
    Oct 25, 2013. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sagent Pharmaceuticals: A Growth Story With A Track Record [View article]
    Very Interesting find, thanks, just picked some up.
    Jul 18, 2013. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy (VLO) expects Q2 EPS of $0.80-$0.90, including ~$0.05 in charges mostly related to costs incurred in the May spinoff of CST Brands. Q2 refining segment earnings are seen declining Y/Y, partly due to significantly lower discounts for heavy sour crude oil, higher natural gas costs, and higher costs to comply with the renewable fuels standard. VLO -4.7% AH. [View news story]
    32.75 in after hours, good place to lightly buy.
    Jul 11, 2013. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Commodity Contrarian Investing 101 [View article]
    Great Article ! I too believe we have reached a capitulation bottom with regards to coal mining stocks and BTU in particular. The continuing bad economic news coming out of China seems not to have much effect on these stocks since last week, a good sign.
    The 5 year 1.4B ton worldwide growth projection is impossible to ignore, it clearly offsets the negative effects of present U.S. government policy.
    Jul 3, 2013. 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero: This Cheap Oil Stock Is In The 'Buy Zone' Right Now [View article]
    The refiners are reacting to the tightening of the spread between Brent and West Texas. Today it shrunk to under $5, which I think is like a 2-1/2 year low. Tougher to make money for them than earlier in the year, when the spread was much higher. They were printing money back than.
    Jul 2, 2013. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal (ACI) gains 15% premarket after selling its Utah operations - Canyon Fuel Company - to Bowie Resources for $435M in cash. "The sale of our Utah operations is consistent with our previously announced plan to unlock value for our shareholders by divesting certain non-core thermal coal assets." (PR[View news story]
    Hard to figure this out, last year those assets produced 8.9 mil tons of coal out of a total of 134 million mined by Arch Coal. The current market cap of the company is $800 million, does that mean the rest of the company is supposed to only be worth $365 million ?
    Jun 28, 2013. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment