If you’ve owned Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) over the last 18 months, you’re probably not a happy shareholder (it’s fallen from $37.39 to as low as $5.75). However, this visual computing technology provider currently screens well in my factor model, and it looks even more attractive after a detailed review.

On October 15, 2008 the S&P500 closed at 907.84 (down over 41% from 12 months earlier), and the following day Warren E. Buffett posted an op-ed piece in the New York Times telling everyone he was buying stocks in his personal account. Considering Buffett is one of the greatest equity investors in U.S. History, this is relevant information to me because we’re roughly at the same level in the S&P500 now, we’re experiencing one heck of a stock market rally over the last 2 months (up 37%), and many investors are confounded trying to determine if the recent rally has been a been a bear-market-rally that will quickly fade or if the markets are safe again and it’s time to get long.

Without question, many things have changed since October 15, 2008, but also many things have not changed. Our current market conundrum reminds me of two Buffett quotes:

Barack Obama believes his administration can allocate resources better than free markets, and on Thursday he moved one step closer to trying. Obama’s new budget proposal seeks to increase taxes by $1 trillion on America’s wealthiest, including a $24 billion increase on hedge fund and private equity execs via carried interest tax reform. You know how I feel about Obama’s approach, but it’s valuable to review the thoughts of others. I've included the opinions of three highly regarded capital market participants, and then I describe how Obama continues to create one of the easiest trades in recent history...

I view this week as a knock-down, drag-out battle between the US Government (Obama, Geithner, and the Senate who all want desperately to keep the stock market from falling) and the stock market itself which wants to drop precipitously. No doubt in my mind the government is aware that the timing of its news releases impacts the stock market drastically and this is why Geithner moved his speech from Monday to Tuesday. When the House passed its version of the stimulus package two weeks ago it was followed by a precipitous fall in the stock market in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” fashion. By postponing his speech until Tuesday, Geithner has the ability to make modifications for “damage control” purposes.

There will be no short supply of news this week with the Senate’s initial preliminary vote scheduled for Monday, Geithner’s speech tentatively scheduled for Tuesday, the Senate’s final stimulus plan vote also scheduled for Tuesday (which could easily be postponed), and many Senators believing a final bill will be on the President’s desk by Monday, February 16th as Obama has “ordered.”

With all the hype and hope surrounding the Senate’s move closer to passing a $900 billion economic stimulus plan, the ECB cutting rates, Obama’s big talk, and all the other pseudo-good news… the S&P 500 is up over the last week.

However, the economic data continues to be very bad, and I believe the larger market trend should continue to be downward. I also believe the recent rally could continue over the next one to two trading days (based on the imminence of the Senate’s stimulus package and Monday's scheduled speech and news conference for Geithner and Obama, respectively), and if it does I’ll be quick to hop on the short side of the market.

If the Senate passes its version of the $815 billion stimulus plan will it really help the economy? Analysts at Barclays and Goldman Sachs don’t think it will help in the short term, and I agree. Last week’s euphoria around the bad bank plan created a very short lived rally in the S&P 500 and subsequently a great opportunity for short sellers.

With the likes of Warren Buffett recently claiming now is the time to get long equities, why would anyone even consider fixed income? With the S&P500 offering more and more value with each passing month, it seems now is the time to get long and stay long the stock market. Ten years from now won’t we all be looking back and saying “Wow! 2009 was one of the best times in history to buy stocks!” However, believe it or not, there are some very smart people who are actually investing in fixed income; for example some can’t stomach the volatility of stocks, others like the income stream, and still others invest in fixed income as part of their overall diversification and asset allocation strategies. In this 2009 Fixed Income Roadmap, I provide an overview of the current landscape of the Fixed Income market (as I see it), and I’ll offer eight actionable fixed income trading ideas.

The S&P500 is down 17% since October, but it's up 7% in the last month. There is always the temptation to think we have entered a new long-term bull market run, and it's time to get long before it's too late. However, over the next 12 to 18 months, I believe the housing market will continue to be the fundamental driver of the US economy, and conditions in housing are still deteriorating.

First, let's examine some housing market facts. July housing starts data will be released on August 19, and if the trend remains intact we are headed downward. For example, last month's release showed single family starts declined at a rate of 5.3%, and this figure is down nearly 50% since January 2006. On August 26, we'll receive new home sales figures, which are also trending downward (down over 30% in the last year). Some bullish commentators will point to the inventory-months metric which seems to be bottoming around 10 months, but this can be misleading because it's based on a much smaller total amount of inventory and sales when compared to several years ago.

No one can predict the future, and no one knows where the market will be in three weeks, three months, or three years. However, I believe the market has given us enough information to make some higher probability bets.

Three Weeks: Over the next three weeks there is an increased likelihood that we will see the fruition of a reaction that has already repeated itself several times over the last year. Fear in the market will grow, panicked selling will ensue, bottom-callers will get long, and another bear market rally will begin. Check out this graph of the stock market fear indicator (the VIX) versus the S&P500 to see the very strong negative relationship between the two, and to see the general market reversal that occurred the last four times the VIX eclipsed 30 (which by the way the VIX is headed towards 30+ again sometime very soon).

The good news is now is a better time to buy than it was last quarter, but the bad news is we could be saying the exact same thing next quarter. My portfolio beat the S&P500 and was up for the second quarter of 2008, but like most people I'm still a little beat up after the horrible first quarter of 2008. I feel strongly that certain investments are better than others right now, and I'll provide more detail on that at the end of this article, but first I'd like to reflect on the second quarter market performance and specifically what has been working and what hasn't.

What's Been Working:Energy stocks have been working. According to this Morningstar link, Energy has been the best performing sector for the quarter (and over the last year). This isn't surprising with names like Massey Energy (MEE) up 144% for the quarter, Petrohawk Energy (HK) up 130%, and Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) up 140%. Considering the ever weakening US dollar and increasing emerging market demand for energy, this trend may well continue.Agricultural commodities have also been working well. For example grains (e.g. corn, soybeans, and wheat) continue to reach amazing new highs, and agricultural stocks like Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) are up approximately 42% and 67% for the quarter, respectively. Similar to energy names, agricultural commodity gains have also been fueled largely by the weak US dollar and increasing emerging market demand. Additionally, recent rain damage to US crops may cause the rapid price increases to continue.Bets against the US Dollar have still been working. For example, the dollar has steadily declined against the Euro over the last 3 years, and it made up no ground over the last quarter.

Some short term trading strategies have been working. Specifically, all the market noise and volatility we've been experiencing this year has created opportunity. For example, I was able to complete a handful of successful short-term options trades during the bear market rally during the first half of last quarter.

Basically, everything else. The worst-performing sector for the quarter was Financials (down around 8% for the quarter). This is no surprise as investment banks continue to write down securities, and the credit markets show no signs of returning to their former glory. I still believe there is more significant downside risk for these stocks.

With the whirlwind of new structured retail investment products being introduced everyday (e.g. Ultra ProFunds, UltraShort PowerShares), it seems only inevitable that something is eventually going to blow up. For example, when MacroShares created its "Oil Up" and "Oil Down" (UCR) and (DCR) tradable shares back in 2006, I'm sure they thought it very unlikely that crude oil would be trading over $126 per barrel. And unfortunately for some unsuspecting investors, that unlikelihood may prove to be quite painful.

For starters, we'll receive GDP Details at 8:30am EST. This is the broadest measure of economic activity, and it will help us determine if we are "officially" in a recession. News like this can significantly impact investor sentiment, and set the tone in the market for quite some time. For example, if we are in a recession this could encourage more investors to move investment dollars to non-US markets (I have a significant portion of my portfolio allocated to emerging markets).

It was a wild first quarter marked by strong downward market pressure and huge volatility. The media talking heads seem to gradually be coming to the general consensus that the market has bottomed. Obviously, there are no guarantees, but I tend to agree we have probably seen the worst, and I am positioning my portfolio accordingly.

I intend to keep my cash positions low and my long positions high. I think stocks are the place to be right now. I don't necessarily expect the market to be up huge everyday, and I don't necessarily think it will be up huge over the next quarter. However, I do think we have probably bottomed, and I expect a general upward trend in stocks over the coming quarters (as opposed to the downward trend in stocks that we have seen over the last two quarters).

Apple Inc. stock (AAPL) is starting to look attractive. The share price has come down significantly, valuation is more appealing, international Mac sales are accelerating, iPod sales remain strong, and the iPhone presents a significant growth opportunity.

Apple currently trades at around 27 times 2008 earnings estimates, which is well within their historical range of 23 to 39 times, and down significantly from the beginning of the year (Apple's stock price is down around 30% year-to-date while the Nasdaq is down less than 15%).

A closer look at clothing retailers American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) suggests the future may be less grim than expected, especially for ANF.

On Wednesday, American Eagle Outfitters announced fourth quarter earnings of 66 cents per share in line with analyst estimates. During the conference call, management mentioned several encouraging items. For example, they continue to take disciplined steps to control inventory in this tough environment. Also, the company re-affirmed Q1 earnings guidance (which is in line with analyst estimates), valuation is attractive (forward P/E is near historical trough levels), the balance sheet is strong (zero debt), and AEO continues to rank well with teens.

On the negative side, AEO continues to struggle in women's apparel (which makes up 60% of their business), and there is question as to where future growth will come from considering the industry is very mature. Improving women's apparel is one growth opportunity, as is expansion of the aerie brand. International growth is another opportunity, but the American Eagle brands seem to have less international appeal compared to Abercrombie & Fitch.