SAN PEDRO, CA (Nov. 13, 2009) — Containers shipped through the Port of Los Angeles last month increased 10.9% compared to September, making October the strongest month yet for the Port this calendar year (see top chart above). Both containerized imports and exports reached their highest levels for 2009, with loaded outbound containers seeing an 11.8% rise over October 2008 volumes. Still, loaded inbound containers were 8.3% below October 2008 levels (data here).

The chart above shows the percent change in U.S. traffic volume through September (from the same month in the previous year), in a report released today by the Federal Highway Administration (data and report here). After falling for 17 consecutive months starting in November 2007, traffic volume has increased in each of the last four months. The 2.5% September increase is the largest monthly increase since a 3.8% increase in January 2006, and follows increases of 0.7% in August, 2.2% in July and 1.9% in June, and is the first time since the summer of 2006 that traffic volume has increased four months in a row (see chart). The cumulative 4-month June-Sept. increase of 7.3% is the largest 4-month increase since the 10.8% increase through May 2004, more than five years ago.

The chart below displays traffic volume as a moving 12-month total, showing a similar pattern to the percentage monthly increase above. After falling for 16 straight months going back to December 2007, the moving 12-month total has increased four months in a row, and marks the largest 4-month increase in traffic volume (12-month total) since the spring of 2005, more than four years ago.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased for the 7th straight month to 103.8, the highest level since the fall of 2007, and the first time in more than five years of 7-consecutive monthly increases (since early 2004).

Somewhat surprisingly, the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture has some great international historical macroeconomic datasets. According to its website:

The International Macroeconomic Data Set provides data from 1969 through 2020 for real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), population, real exchange rates, and other variables for the 190 countries and 34 regions that are most important for U.S. agricultural trade.

Weekly jobless claims fell for the 11th straight week to 514,000 (four-week moving average), reaching the lowest level in a year (since November 15, 2008), according to today's report from the Department of Labor (see chart above).

Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes for sale and government and industry efforts to stoke demand and curtail foreclosures. Last month 22,132 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 2.8% from 21,539 in September and also up 2.8% from 21,532 a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

The Baltic Dry Index closed yesterday at 4381, advancing for the 14th straight day, and registering positive gains in 31 out the last 35 days. From the late-September low of 2163, the benchmark index for freight costs to ship dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains has more than doubled in just 39 days, and has reached the highest level since September 24, 2008, almost 14 months ago. The global economic recovery is underway and gaining momentum.

See related post here from Scott Grannis, who says that:

The MSCI World Stock Market Index has registered gains in 7 out of the last 9 trading days, and closed today at 1175.40, the highest close since October 1, 2008, more than a year ago (see chart above). The World Index has risen 27.7% since the first of the year, and by more 70% from the early March bottom. Welcome to the Worldwide Bull Market Rally of 2009.

Here's one report.

Jobless claims as a share of the labor force have fallen in each of the last seven months from the 0.422% peak in March, and dropped to 0.345% in October, the lowest level since last November (see chart above). In contrast, jobless claims as a share of the labor force peaked at 0.60% in the three recessions above in the 1970s and 1980s. Given the current size of our labor force (about 154 million), we would have to have had more than 900,000 jobless claims during the most recent recession to reach the level of 0.60%, which is much higher than the peak jobless claims level in April of 658,750.

Read more here at The Enterprise Blog.

According to a recent study by America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), "Individual Health Insurance 2009: A Comprehensive Survey of Premiums, Availability, and Benefits":

In the summer of 2009, America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) conducted the latest in a series of comprehensive surveys of member companies participating in the individual health insurance market. The data on premiums and benefits are based on nearly 2.6 million policies in force during May or June 2009, covering approximately 4.2 million people.

Martin Feldstein explains a fatal flaw of Obamacare in the Washington Post: It will be rational for individuals and companies to drop their current health insurance, pay the penalties, and wait to purchase insurance when they get sick:

A key feature of the House and Senate health bills would prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to anyone with preexisting conditions. The new coverage would start immediately, and the premium could not reflect the individual's health condition.

The spread between nominal 10-year treasuries (data) and 10-year TIPS (data) has increased to about 2% this week, up from almost 0% at the beginning of the year. The 200 basis point spread is still below the 250 basis point average during 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and the first half of 2008.

According to Scott Grannis:

The chart above shows annual real GDP growth (BEA data here) from: 1) 1930 to 1932 (-25.7% cumulative decline) and 2) 2007 to 2010, assuming: a) fourth quarter growth this year of 3.5% and no revisions to the Q3 estimate of 3.5%, and b) real GDP growth next year of 2.5% (WSJ consensus forecast).

"Cash for clunkers" might have "juiced up" new vehicle sales and provided some initial and temporary stimulus to the economy, but there are some secondary costs now surfacing in the "hangover" period:

1. Shortage of cheap used vehicles and rising prices (see chart above).

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 last week, while the number collecting long-term aid fell to the lowest reading in seven months as the job market steadied. Another key gauge of underlying labor market health, the 4-week moving average for new claims, decreased by 6,000 to 526,250, which was the smallest reading since January.

Scott Grannis:

I've never paid much attention to surveys of confidence, mainly because they tend to be lagging indicators. As these charts show (one appears above), consumers are often quite happy until just before a recession starts, and quite depressed well after a recovery begins.

So far this year 106 banks have failed out of 8,195 FDIC-insured institutions, or slightly more than 1% of all banks. How does that compare to previous periods of financial stress and episodes of bank failures, and is there anything positive about bank failures?

The graph above displays annual bank failures (data here) from 1930 to 2009, showing the two most serious banking crises in U.S. history, the Great Depression (9,146 banks failed from 1930-1933) and the S&L Crisis (2,935 banks failed from 1980-1994). Compared to those two periods, 106 bank failures in a single year out of more than 8,000 banks in total, does appear pretty inconsequential.

1. In just a three-week period from October 7-27, Wal-Mart (WMT) announced the opening of 22 new stores and expansions of existing stores that have added 5,340 new jobs to the local communities in 18 different states.
2. Wal-Mart recently announced Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Price Reductions, with unprecedented savings each week this Holiday season.
3. Wal-Mart also recently announced that total capital spending for the fiscal year ending Jan. 2010, is projected to be between $12.5 to $13.1 billion, up from $11.5 billion in fiscal year 2009. Total capital spending for the fiscal year ending Jan. 2011 is projected to be $13.0 to $15.0 billion. Note: More than 50% of Wal-Mart's capital spending is for its U.S. operations.

Call it The Wal-Mart Economic Stimulus Plan: Thousands of new jobs for American workers, millions of dollars of savings for U.S. consumers, and billions of dollars of investment in local communities around the country. And it all happens in the private sector, without any new legislation and without adding a dollar to the U.S. deficit.