According to a recent study by America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), "Individual Health Insurance 2009: A Comprehensive Survey of Premiums, Availability, and Benefits":

In the summer of 2009, America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) conducted the latest in a series of comprehensive surveys of member companies participating in the individual health insurance market. The data on premiums and benefits are based on nearly 2.6 million policies in force during May or June 2009, covering approximately 4.2 million people.

Martin Feldstein explains a fatal flaw of Obamacare in the Washington Post: It will be rational for individuals and companies to drop their current health insurance, pay the penalties, and wait to purchase insurance when they get sick:

A key feature of the House and Senate health bills would prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to anyone with preexisting conditions. The new coverage would start immediately, and the premium could not reflect the individual's health condition.

The spread between nominal 10-year treasuries (data) and 10-year TIPS (data) has increased to about 2% this week, up from almost 0% at the beginning of the year. The 200 basis point spread is still below the 250 basis point average during 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and the first half of 2008.

According to Scott Grannis:

The chart above shows annual real GDP growth (BEA data here) from: 1) 1930 to 1932 (-25.7% cumulative decline) and 2) 2007 to 2010, assuming: a) fourth quarter growth this year of 3.5% and no revisions to the Q3 estimate of 3.5%, and b) real GDP growth next year of 2.5% (WSJ consensus forecast).

"Cash for clunkers" might have "juiced up" new vehicle sales and provided some initial and temporary stimulus to the economy, but there are some secondary costs now surfacing in the "hangover" period:

1. Shortage of cheap used vehicles and rising prices (see chart above).

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits dipped by 1,000 last week, while the number collecting long-term aid fell to the lowest reading in seven months as the job market steadied. Another key gauge of underlying labor market health, the 4-week moving average for new claims, decreased by 6,000 to 526,250, which was the smallest reading since January.

Scott Grannis:

I've never paid much attention to surveys of confidence, mainly because they tend to be lagging indicators. As these charts show (one appears above), consumers are often quite happy until just before a recession starts, and quite depressed well after a recovery begins.

So far this year 106 banks have failed out of 8,195 FDIC-insured institutions, or slightly more than 1% of all banks. How does that compare to previous periods of financial stress and episodes of bank failures, and is there anything positive about bank failures?

The graph above displays annual bank failures (data here) from 1930 to 2009, showing the two most serious banking crises in U.S. history, the Great Depression (9,146 banks failed from 1930-1933) and the S&L Crisis (2,935 banks failed from 1980-1994). Compared to those two periods, 106 bank failures in a single year out of more than 8,000 banks in total, does appear pretty inconsequential.

1. In just a three-week period from October 7-27, Wal-Mart (WMT) announced the opening of 22 new stores and expansions of existing stores that have added 5,340 new jobs to the local communities in 18 different states.
2. Wal-Mart recently announced Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Price Reductions, with unprecedented savings each week this Holiday season.
3. Wal-Mart also recently announced that total capital spending for the fiscal year ending Jan. 2010, is projected to be between $12.5 to $13.1 billion, up from $11.5 billion in fiscal year 2009. Total capital spending for the fiscal year ending Jan. 2011 is projected to be $13.0 to $15.0 billion. Note: More than 50% of Wal-Mart's capital spending is for its U.S. operations.

Call it The Wal-Mart Economic Stimulus Plan: Thousands of new jobs for American workers, millions of dollars of savings for U.S. consumers, and billions of dollars of investment in local communities around the country. And it all happens in the private sector, without any new legislation and without adding a dollar to the U.S. deficit.

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1. AIRPORTS COUNCIL INTERNATIONAL -- World passenger traffic posted a positive growth rate in August for the first time since June 2008. Passenger demand finally registered a modest positive growth rate in August 2009 with the world airports reporting a 0.1 percent increase compared to August 2008. International passenger traffic declined slightly by 2 percent while domestic traffic increased dramatically by 3 percent in 2009.

Highlights from Friday's report on existing home sales:

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007 (see top chart above).

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) fell to a fresh 13-month low yesterday of 20.69, closing at the lowest level since August 28, 2008. From the high of 80.86 on November 20 of last year, the VIX has fallen by more than 60 points, and is back to the pre-financial crisis level. Just another indication that the worst is behind us.

The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (^DJC) is a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities (e.g. natural gas, live cattle, wheat, copper, silver, cotton, etc., see the full list and current weights here and see the chart above) and was launched on July 14th, 1998.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A gauge of the U.S. economy's prospects rose for a sixth-straight month in September to a two-year high (see chart above), a private research group said on Thursday, suggesting the U.S. recovery was building steam.

The chart above shows the percent change in U.S. traffic volume through August (from the same month in the previous year), in a report released today by the Federal Highway Administration (data and report here). After falling for 17 consecutive months starting in November 2007, traffic volume has increased in 4 out of the last 5 months. The 0.7% August increase follows increases of 2.2% in July and 1.9% in June, and is the first time since late 2006 of 3 consecutive monthly increases in traffic volume, and the largest 3-month increase since early 2004 (see shaded areas in chart above).

The chart below displays traffic volume as a moving 12-month total, showing a similar pattern to the percentage monthly increase above. After falling for 16 straight months going back to December 2007, the moving 12-month total has now increased 3 months in a row, and in 4 out of the last 5 months, and marks the largest 3-month increase in traffic volume (12-month total) since the spring of 2006, more than three years ago.

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USA Today (September 3, 2009)-- Women are on the verge of outnumbering men in the workforce for the first time, a historic reversal caused by long-term changes in women's roles and massive job losses for men during this recession. Women held 49.83% of the nation's 132 million jobs in June and they're gaining the vast majority of jobs in the few sectors of the economy that are growing, according to the most recent numbers available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.