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Mark Kowalski  

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  • 3 Canadian REITs That Look Promising, And 3 To Avoid [View article]
    Not really choosing winners and loosers, I am not trying to find the REIT that will jump 20% in the next quarter.
    As stated above, I am not banking on a unit price recovery in the near future. Instead I am looking for a high yield investment that will provide good quality returns and hold its value as we pass through these interest rate increases.
    In a bear market, shares that perform worse than their peer group are a red flag to me, they signal that the company is facing more problems than just the deteriorating industry conditions, and that creates very difficult operating conditions. As a result, I picked the bottom three under this thesis.
    I would love to put out a more detailed analysis of each REITs operations and results, perhaps in the New Year time permitting. I have already covered Riocan in depth, and touched a bit on Calloway and HR in a previous piece if you are interested

    Thanks for pointing out the typo, it should have been 94.6 %. I have sent it for revision.

    Mark
    Dec 13, 2013. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Canadian REITs That Look Promising, And 3 To Avoid [View article]
    From what I have heard, I don't think the Target stores are doing exceptionally well but they seem to be here to stay. Riocan does have a high quality of tenants, as does Calloway based on their highly desirable locations

    I haven't done much analysis on Artis, but will keep it in mind for future pieces, thanks
    Dec 13, 2013. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Lucrative Stocks You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    Awesome write-up, very interesting, and particularly for Kona. I will have to add it to my watchlist

    Thanks,
    Mark
    Nov 5, 2013. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Well put Momintn, and I absolutely agree, for a company with a history of hit and miss profitability to be able to make this announcement should be pretty huge news to the markets.
    Thanks for the comment
    Mark
    Nov 2, 2013. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Absolutely, and the stock is back up higher than it was pre-earnings time, this was a very confusing and volatile market reaction and it seems to have fully settled.

    Problem is 2k sports isn't really enough to make the company profitable, without GTA V the quarter results were a loss of $140 M. I am hoping the lineup of 10 games for the next 1.5 years contains at least 2-3 big rockstar titles that will benefit from the current momentum and bring home big sales figures.

    Thanks for the comment,
    Mark
    Nov 2, 2013. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Mentioned directly above your comment under PC sales, have a look

    Historically PC sales of GTA games are minimal due to the delay

    Mark
    Nov 2, 2013. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Thanks Bruce,

    Very interesting point, I haven't followed this company for long enough, but it does seem management is contending with the shareholders and highly emphasizing the product quality over all else.
    Thankfully at this point, the higher quality product seems to be in line with the shareholder's best interest as TTWO is setting itself apart from the pack, but what will happen in the coming quarters is a big mystery. Particularly if they start making games that cost more than they return, which is a big problem for other developers out there.
    Oct 31, 2013. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Thanks Whatsup, very interesting that this is still the case more than a month after release.
    Oct 31, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Thanks Manfred, and it certainly seems the market corrected today

    Mark
    Oct 31, 2013. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Very interesting points Sermer, thanks. I will address most of them below not to argue with you but to add some colour and support why I still am skeptical:
    1) - PC Sales - vgchartz.com sales info for GTA IV:
    360 - 10.43M units
    PS3 - 9.87M units
    PC - 0.77M units
    Rockstar delays the release onto PC largely due to piracy concerns (have a look at this AMA with a Rockstar employee, very interesting http://bit.ly/HhRp6m)
    This info might be a bit outdated as I know many people have been shifting away from consoles in the past couple years as the PC technology is far superior, so lets use a newer example:
    Bioshock Infinite:
    360 - 1.37M Units
    PS3 - 0.97M units
    PC - 0.34M units - 13% of the total

    Assuming this would apply (note its optimistic since bioshock released all three at the same time, GTA has not yet given a date for PC) this would add 4.3M units sold and a broad estimate $225M in sales.

    Next Gen consoles - this is a very good point, however, I honestly cannot possible imagine the number of people willing to wait this long to play the game to be *significant* in comparison to the total sold so far. I hope instead that TTWO offers an upgrade package, say $10 for existing owners to get the nextgen copy. Even then, not many would pay to be able to play the same game they have, having just shelled out for a new system. I think next gen sales will be even less than PC, depending on how TTWO addresses the transition.

    DLC - Again, looking at VGchartz - GTA IV DLC - none of them even broke 0.01 M units sold. Assuming they have better luck with the DLC, lets look at an example of a well received Rockstar DLC: Red Dead Redemption: Undead Nightmare:
    360 - 0.98M units compared to total game 5.67M
    PS3 - 0.93M units compared to total game 5.60M
    Altogether about 17% of the games purchased resulted in a DLC purchase. Using this figure on GTA, and assuming a per-DLC price of $10, we have (29M * 0.17 * $10) =~ $50M per DLC, an excellent addition to sales, but very small in comparison to the initial release of the game.

    Sure GTA may do better in all of these estimates than previous games, but at this point I think its clear that the bulk of the sales has already been made.
    Where I think TTWO stands to benefit the most is from the upcoming games. For example, a new Red Dead in 2014 has the potential to hit 10-15 M based on the original's sales of ~11M. at GTA like rates, this would result in $500 - $750M in sales (very rough estimate). Coupled with the success of the predecessor and gamer's fondness for Rockstar products, I think they will be able to do very well with subsequent releases.

    Let me know what you think, I have very much enjoyed your comments,
    Mark
    Oct 31, 2013. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Thanks alot for your comment sermer, very interesting opinion

    I largely agree with your analysis that TTWO is superior in quality, it certainly does drive the ratings on its releases incredibly high (as mentionned above) and it does create a loyal following for its games (myself included). This in turn does result in higher pricing for the games, not initially as most games start at the same price tag, but later on after a couple weeks when mediocre games are slashed to 50%, Take Two games are still relatively well priced. I don't think it has anywhere near the pricing power of Apple, but I like the comparison and think it is very valid
    Thanks,
    Mark
    Oct 31, 2013. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    A couple additional comments I wanted to raise since I see alot of the comments are going in the same direction:
    1) I do think the vast majority of the revenues from GTA V have already been earned in the current 29 million copies sold - my estimated $1.5 B in revenues.
    Sure people will buy the game for Christmas and people will buy DLC in the future, but based on the fact that the number of copies sold is already at an all time high, I can't possibly see a significant amount of additional sales coming soon. I also am skeptical of DLC and vehicle/weapon pack sales, I do believe there will be an impact from sales of these however I don't think these additional revenues will be significant, and nowhere near enough to bring the total to the $3b some of you expect.
    Perhaps I am overly conservative, but my experience watching game sales shows that the vast majority of revenues is in the first couple weeks after release.
    2) Another reader has raised a very interesting point about dilution in the company. There is a significant deal of new shares issued through compensation arrangements and convertible debt that serve to reduce the value of shares indirectly. These will have a negative effect on the individual shareholder.

    I want to make sure you all understand the risks,
    Overall, I am still bullish on the company, but I don't think this is a sure-fire "apple at $399" sort of deal. I believe the value from here on out is the flow of upcoming titles in the next year and a half, not just the continued earnings from GTA V

    As always, I welcome any comments to this
    Oct 31, 2013. 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    29 m copies covers October as well, so its $1.1B from Sept 17th to 30th and around $450M for the current quarter based on management estimates
    Oct 30, 2013. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Wow, very interesting point, I honestly hadn't considered that. If he was looking to get out, probably would have been a great time for him to leave as any other day that sort of volume could be devastating.
    Total for the day >10.7 M volume of shares traded vs average 3.5M
    Look also at the huge volume at the start. To be expected with an earnings release, but could also be out of proportion.

    Thanks for this comment, very interesting idea
    Oct 30, 2013. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Best of luck with your trade

    Mark
    Oct 30, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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