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Mark Kowalski

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  • I Concede Defeat In [View article]
    I agree, at this point a much better strategy is just to steer clear, not long, not short. Logically the valuation makes no sense, but it hasn't made sense for several years now, and betting on the timing of a market correction is basically gambling.
    Reminds me of my analysis on LinkedIn, advising readers to stay away in November 2012 saved them from a 122% increase in the stock price, better than anyof my long ideas. Not that it has ever made sense from a valuation standpoint as an investment.
    Sorry for your loss.
    Oct 25 09:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Keys To Successful Big Oil Investing [View article]
    Brilliant piece. Really enjoyed your excellent analysis of the P/E ratio.

    The P/E Ratio certainly can be deceiving. I always try to focus a significant portion of my analysis of these on whats in the pipeline for future acquisitions and development projects, and how well they sustain their volume of production for oil and gas.
    Apr 29 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    A couple additional comments I wanted to raise since I see alot of the comments are going in the same direction:
    1) I do think the vast majority of the revenues from GTA V have already been earned in the current 29 million copies sold - my estimated $1.5 B in revenues.
    Sure people will buy the game for Christmas and people will buy DLC in the future, but based on the fact that the number of copies sold is already at an all time high, I can't possibly see a significant amount of additional sales coming soon. I also am skeptical of DLC and vehicle/weapon pack sales, I do believe there will be an impact from sales of these however I don't think these additional revenues will be significant, and nowhere near enough to bring the total to the $3b some of you expect.
    Perhaps I am overly conservative, but my experience watching game sales shows that the vast majority of revenues is in the first couple weeks after release.
    2) Another reader has raised a very interesting point about dilution in the company. There is a significant deal of new shares issued through compensation arrangements and convertible debt that serve to reduce the value of shares indirectly. These will have a negative effect on the individual shareholder.

    I want to make sure you all understand the risks,
    Overall, I am still bullish on the company, but I don't think this is a sure-fire "apple at $399" sort of deal. I believe the value from here on out is the flow of upcoming titles in the next year and a half, not just the continued earnings from GTA V

    As always, I welcome any comments to this
    Oct 31 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following Buffett And Riding The Bank Of America Wave [View article]
    Very interesting piece, thanks

    I too am very curious who paid for lunch!
    Aug 20 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I think this gives you an edge as a retail investor. Imagine how the HFT traders felt knowing they sold at 145 points less than market value because of a fake tweet...
    Apr 24 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Rebound Is Coming [View article]
    Excellent article, great to see some strong and reasonable arguments in favour of what you're saying, thanks
    Nov 15 08:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two Interactive: What You Need To Know About The Blowout Quarter - GTA V Sales And Earnings Results [View article]
    Mind Blown, I honestly wonder what is at work here.

    Thanks Cytrax
    Oct 30 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Fire Stories Are A Farce [View article]
    Interesting argument,

    Math is a bit flawed, comparing the number of vehicles sold in 2012 is not similar to comparing the vehicles on the road, since we have no way of determining how many of the general vehicle fires were from new cars.

    total us vehicles on the roads est 233M in 2011

    Changes the math, but perhaps not enough to change your premise.
    Oct 28 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Pick REIT Stocks Like Trump And Think Like Graham [View article]
    Wow. Very inspiring, thanks so much Brad

    Have a great Easter Weekend
    Mar 29 09:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USG Corp - Will 2013 Be A Turnaround Year? [View article]
    Thanks investa,

    Agreed that the price is not attractive anymore. However a pullback in the housing starts figures this year could cause a sharp drop and bring it back to a more attractive level.

    Feb 27 07:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
    Thanks Super, I agree that it does. What boggles my mind however is that all my arguments here were also true when I wrote my first piece on LNKD in November, and pretty much since it began doubling in 2012. Yet it shows no sign of giving up. I think when it falls, it will fall hard.
    Feb 8 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Turn FedEx Rent Checks Into 21 Years Of Durable Dividends That Pay 5.6% [View article]
    Very interesting article, thanks!

    I also feel a bit uncomfortable with the notion of a REIT investing in another on your behalf... especially since it covers 10% of total assets. "When REITs sell at a discount from net asset value, they become excellent investments"
    Certainly so, but the determination of which REIT is an excellent investment seems to be a decision I the investor should be making, not the company in which I am investing. It is not after all a mutual fund etc. which I am looking to manage my funds for me.
    I certainly do appreciate his point about maintaining liquidity throughout the business cycle, but 10% of overall assets seems excessive
    Nevertheless, I will add this to my watch list, thanks for an excellent article
    Jan 25 08:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: A Connection To Be Ignored At These Levels [View article]
    Interesting read, and I completely agree with your views on today's developments. I agree with your reasons to short LNKD, however I would be weary of doing so ahead of the Q4 earnings release scheduled for Feb 4. This is one of the most hyped investments I've ever seen, and a positive release could bring the stock right back up.
    I think its well overdue for a reality check, but strong institutional ownership and hype might keep that at bay for a while.
    Jan 2 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Brand New Entrants Into The Dividend World That Deserve A Closer Look [View article]
    Always a pleasure to read your articles, you sure have an eye for some Canadian gems
    Dec 14 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Seductive Warren Buffett [View article]
    His lack of success might have something to do with the size and his following. Every move he makes distorts the market, so he has a hard time using his tried and tested strategy in these conditions.
    Dec 4 05:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment