LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
Dugly - Tulips, South Sea Companies, Growth Stocks, Synergistic Conglomerates, High-Tech, Bio-Tech, Japanese, .com, When Burton Malkiel gets around to publishing the next edition of his book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", I hope social media will get a mention
As for the user figures, its really only relevant if the associated revenue growth matches. Keep in mind that the premium subscriptions were only 20% of revenues.
In Q3, membership was approx 38% US - 74M, which was surprising considering it represented 64% - 162M of revenues . At the time I questioned whether LinkedIn was going to be able to monetize its international memberships as well as those in the US, which would give it enormous room for expansion. In Q4, the figures changed as follows: Membership - 74M - 37% Revenues - $189M - 62% So international memberships and revenues outpaced those in the US, signaling LinkedIn seems to be on the right track with its international movement
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
Not to bore you too much, but I do believe LinkedIn has plenty of potential. Its ability to grow both membership and to increase earnings per member is quite significant, and could lead to a significant profitability in the future. It can charge more for these services, especially since it is a good means for recruiters to interact with candidates, and many people use it to present the faces of their compaines. Its really the valuation that is way off, and LinkedIn will have an impossibly hard time living up to it. And even if it does, all that will do is in the best case scenario sustain the current price.
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
Thanks Super, I agree that it does. What boggles my mind however is that all my arguments here were also true when I wrote my first piece on LNKD in November, and pretty much since it began doubling in 2012. Yet it shows no sign of giving up. I think when it falls, it will fall hard.
LinkedIn: A Connection To Be Ignored At These Levels [View article]
Interesting read, and I completely agree with your views on today's developments. I agree with your reasons to short LNKD, however I would be weary of doing so ahead of the Q4 earnings release scheduled for Feb 4. This is one of the most hyped investments I've ever seen, and a positive release could bring the stock right back up. I think its well overdue for a reality check, but strong institutional ownership and hype might keep that at bay for a while.
A Complete Benjamin Graham Analysis For LinkedIn [View article]
Thanks for this, interesting approach to LinkedIn. I am however confused about the average S&P 500 PE of 65? Are you sure? http://yhoo.it/PwIhJn - Growth estimates section
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Agreed, it seems like this is a foolproof system. My only remaining question then is why has it not yet crashed. The traditional value indicators all bring up huge red flags, why then is the price staying at those levels consistently. Also, have a look also at the institutional owners of the site, it seems to have some big supporters. http://yhoo.it/U1ur6G As a result, I'm not quite bold enough to take my stab at a put option, nor at shorting the stock. It seems perfectly logical that there should be a correction, however that same thing could have been said a year ago, and the stock has nearly doubled since then... Best of luck in your trading
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Thanks Charles,
Theoretically, it seems to make sense that the demise of the job-boards would boast well for LinkedIn, however I'm not so sure that this is the end of such sites. Certainly, there is an abundance of competitors, and LinkedIn's unique system and its large number of users gives it a huge advantage over the others, likely at their expense.
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Thanks mjones, Best of luck with your trade. While I certainly agree it could drop, I find myself wondering why it has not already. Market hype sure is a powerful thing.
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
When Burton Malkiel gets around to publishing the next edition of his book, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", I hope social media will get a mention
As for the user figures, its really only relevant if the associated revenue growth matches. Keep in mind that the premium subscriptions were only 20% of revenues.
Thanks for the read and comment.
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
Here is the link to the proportion of users: http://bit.ly/V8GJuE
In Q3, membership was approx 38% US - 74M, which was surprising considering it represented 64% - 162M of revenues . At the time I questioned whether LinkedIn was going to be able to monetize its international memberships as well as those in the US, which would give it enormous room for expansion. In Q4, the figures changed as follows:
Membership - 74M - 37%
Revenues - $189M - 62%
So international memberships and revenues outpaced those in the US, signaling LinkedIn seems to be on the right track with its international movement
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
Its really the valuation that is way off, and LinkedIn will have an impossibly hard time living up to it. And even if it does, all that will do is in the best case scenario sustain the current price.
LinkedIn - There's Nowhere To Go But Down From Here [View article]
LinkedIn: A Connection To Be Ignored At These Levels [View article]
I think its well overdue for a reality check, but strong institutional ownership and hype might keep that at bay for a while.
A Complete Benjamin Graham Analysis For LinkedIn [View article]
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Also, have a look also at the institutional owners of the site, it seems to have some big supporters. http://yhoo.it/U1ur6G
As a result, I'm not quite bold enough to take my stab at a put option, nor at shorting the stock. It seems perfectly logical that there should be a correction, however that same thing could have been said a year ago, and the stock has nearly doubled since then...
Best of luck in your trading
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Theoretically, it seems to make sense that the demise of the job-boards would boast well for LinkedIn, however I'm not so sure that this is the end of such sites. Certainly, there is an abundance of competitors, and LinkedIn's unique system and its large number of users gives it a huge advantage over the others, likely at their expense.
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
I enjoyed reading your article as I was preparing mine, it provided an excellent overview of the social media industry.
Why LinkedIn Is Different In Social Media And Why That Still Doesn't Justify Its Price [View article]
Best of luck with your trade. While I certainly agree it could drop, I find myself wondering why it has not already. Market hype sure is a powerful thing.