Mark Krieger

Imperial Sugar: Spike in Sugar Prices Sweetens Prospects

A couple of points I need to drive home that were not included are: (1) IPSU is getting $210 to $225 million million in insurance proceeds to rebuild its plant--- The damage to the plant was $13 million net impairment against book value. So the company will eventually have to show a large gain of as much as $212 million or $18.00 per share (2) The company expects to receive from $60-70 million in business interruption proceeds-this could be settled as early as the current quarter.--this could result in a gain of about $6.00 per share.About income tax: the accountants have some clever ways of avoiding the tax liability from these gains( they place the gains in a deferred column)

Baidu: Sky High Expectations Are a Recipe for Disaster

I don't want to sound too arogant on this one, but I told you so!!!!

Winn Dixie: Why the Market Is Wrong Again

I don't care how clean or bright or airy a store is. i don't need Fancy displays or an architectual experience or any other fluff! All I care about is convienance, location and price. The stock is cheap and will go higher..The rewards card is a pain though and should go --its merely smoke and mirrors and is just one more thing the customer has to deal with. About deflation--I don't see it, I just got back from spending $200 at costco and all I saw were rising price tags..

Is Google Expensive?

you have a point----and you like the same movies as i do!!!

Short Amazon: Poor Relative Strength

no question ---i was terribly wrong on this one and paid dearly for the error of my ways...Fortunately I recovered some of my AMZN losses on BIDU's drop today.

Baidu: Sky High Expectations Are a Recipe for Disaster

well the article might stink, but I was right! The stock did crater $80 in less than 12 hours--- i did cover today at $349 in premarket..for a small loss...


On Oct 09 01:53 AM msrick wrote:

> This has got to be one of the worst write-ups I have ever seen –
> the entirely simple nonsensical.
>
> Let’s disseminate...
>
> "Well I have to admit, arguing with the market is a bad bet, especially
> when you are short one of the hottest search engines in the world,
> Baidu (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)."
> SO LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT - YOU ADMIT THAT BIDU IS ONE OF THE HOTTEST
> SEARCH ENGINES AROUND, YET YOU TAKE UP A SHORT POSITION IN THE STOCK??
> CAN YOU NOT SERIOUSLY THINK OF A BETTER COMPANY TO SHORT – I DON’T
> KNOW - SAY A COMPANY THAT’S UNPOPULAR?
>
> “Being part of the last $100 rise in a BIDU short position has not
> been a pleasant experience, but being stubborn too long in the market
> is a recipe for disaster and I finally covered my position after
> the shares ran up another $40 just in the last two trading days.
>
> I just couldn’t take the pain anymore and decided to throw in the
> towel. For the record, every time I cover, it seems the stock drops
> immediately after (anybody else have that problem?).”
> EVERYTHING IS WRONG ABOUT THIS SECTION – IT’S ESSENTIALLY MEANINGLESS.
> THE TRANSLATION OF WHAT YOU ARE TELLING YOUR READERS IS THAT ALTHOUGH
> YOU COVERED YOUR SHORT POSITION - THEY SHOULD STILL HOLD THEIR SHORT
> - BECAUSE EVERY TIME YOU COVER, THE STOCK DROPS?? LOL
>
> YOU’RE A REAL WINNER - IF THE STOCK CONTINUES TO RISE, THEN YOU GOT
> IT RIGHT BY COVERING, IF THE STOCK DROPS, THEN YOU ALERTED YOUR READERS
> – HEY EVERY TIME YOU COVER, THE STOCK DROPS – WINK WINK!!
>
> “Why is it climbing at such a climatic pace?”
> GEE – I DON’T KNOW – COULD IT BE BECAUSE IT’S A POPULAR STOCK AS
> YOU FIRST MENTIONED?
>
> “I guess the fact that Google's (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> CEO said the worst of the economy is behind us, had something to
> do with yesterday’s spike, or speculators on the sidelines are jumping
> in at any price in fear they might miss the boat as it swooshes by.
> But let’s face it, the bulk of the rise is probably attributable
> to shorts covering such as myself and momentum players trying push
> the limit.
> AND THAT’S IT? WHAT ABOUT CHINA’S REVISED UPWARD ECONOMIC GROWTH,
> THE WEAKNESS OF THE US DOLLAR, THE FACT THAT THIS STOCK MAY HAVE
> BEEN TOO OVERSOLD, THE GENERAL MARKETS RISING HIGHER, THE HUGE GROWTH
> OF THE INTERNET IN CHINA, THE FACT THAT BIDU IS BY FAR THE MOST WIDELY
> SEARCH ENGINE IN CHINA?
>
> The fundamentals have been temporally replaced with the preoccupation
> of (or the perception of) robust earnings growth. Emotion and greed
> are running rampant again which is a precursor of disaster.”
> IF THAT’S WHAT YOU REALLY BELIEVE, THEN WHY DID YOU COVER YOUR SHORT
> – SHOULD YOU NOT BE ADDING TO IT?
> IS IT BECAUSE YOU SHORTED TOO MUCH TOO SOON – WITH NO THOUGHT TO
> RISK TO PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT – OR SOME SORT OF HEDGE SUCH AS
> CALL OPTIONS?
>
> “The shares are rich: BIDU’s market cap has risen a staggering 50%
> In less than two months.”
> SO?? BIDU IS NOT ALONE - PLENTY OF OTHER STOCKS ACROSS THIS AND OTHER
> SECTORS HAVE DONE THE SAME – SOME WITH VERY POOR FUNDAMENTALS AND
> WITHOUT THE HUGE GROWTH POTENTIAL BIDU HAS. JUST IN CASE YOU ARE
> NOT AWARE, CHINA HAS OVER 1 BILLION IN POPULATION WITH 300 MILLION
> WHO HAVE ACCESS TO INTERNET.
>
> “In just the past two weeks alone, the consensus of analyst 2009
> expectations have climbed another 6% to $6.14 (forward multiple of
> 68) while 2010 estimates rose 9% to $9.04 translating into 47% earnings
> growth from 2009 to 2010—those are pretty high expectations to say
> the least - but let’s assume they are correct and BIDU nails the
> $9.04 in 2010, placing BIDU’s multiple at a very expensive 46 times”
>
> IS 46 TIME MULTIPLE REALLY “VERY EXPENSE” FOR THIS STOCK? I CAN REMEMBER
> A FEW YEARS BACK, IT WAS OVER 200! (GOOGLE HAD SIMILAR MULTIPLES
> AT SOME POINT IF NOT MISTAKEN).
>
> (Especially compared with GOOG's 21 times 2010 estimates) What if
> something goes wrong? Is there any room for error in these generous
> forecasts? Is the stock priced for perfection?
> YOU ARE FOOLISH TO COMPARE GOOG’S CURRENT PE TO BIDU IN SUCH A DIRECT
> WAY. THEY MAY BE IN THE SAME BUSINESS, HOWEVER, GOOG’S MASSIVE GROWTH
> POTENTIAL IS PERHAPS BEHIND IT – BIDU STILL HAS MOST OF THIS GROWTH
> IN FRONT OF IT – ITS AN EMERGING MARKET - YOU WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE
> TO COMPARE MULTIPLES OF OTHER INTERNET COMPANIES IN CHINA RATHER
> THAN COMPARE TO GOOG.
>
> Analyst one year targets: The high one year target now stands at
> only $430, which represents a paltry 2% premium to its current price.
> To make matters worse, the analysts' mean target of $370 is more
> than 10% beneath today’s quote of $420. It makes no sense why any
> potential investor would want to buy at these lofty levels and take
> so much risk, just to attain a measly 2% return (the difference between
> the current share price and the highest target price) The risk reward
> scenario simply does not pencil out. The analysts certainly need
> to adjust their targets higher if they don’t want to look too silly.
>
> I THINK YOU ARE THE ONE THAT LOOKS SILLY. IF YOU BELIEVE YOUR OWN
> LOGIC – WHY DID YOU COVER NOW? LOOKS LIKE YOU ARE BUYING HIGH AND
> SELLING LOW?
>
> Overbought? I guess the market has a short memory. What about last
> year’s financial meltdown or the dotcom crash?
> THIS MADE ME LAUGH THE LOUDEST. WHAT ABOUT THE CRASH OR THE FINANCIAL
> MELT DOWN?? IN CASE YOU ARE NOT AWARE, STOCK MARKETS TRADE ON WHAT
> THEY PERCEIVE TO BE THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT IN SAY 6 TO 12 MONTHS
> FROM NOW – NOT IN THE PAST. SOME EXAMPLES FOR YOU – THE CRASH OF
> 87 – THE BEST TIME TO BUY WAS SHORTLY AFTER THE CRASH. BEST TIME
> TO GET INTO INTERNET STOCKS – YOU GOT IT, JUST AFTER THE DOT COM
> BUST. BEST TIME TO TIME AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS – YOU GO FIGURE.
>
>
> Stocks do get ahead of themselves and eventually rationality finds
> its way back into the markets. BIDU has gone up way too far in too
> short of a timeframe and its extreme overbought condition certainly
> makes it vulnerable to a major correction when holders with big profits
> decide to ring the cash register. Bullish sentiment is at a high
> point, so caution should not be thrown out the door.
> SO YOU THINK BIDU WITH A 46 MULTIPLE IS VULNERABLE TO A MAJOR CORRECTION??
> TO WHAT MULTIPLE 10 OR 15? I THINK I WOULD START CALLING BULLISH
> SENTIMENT AT ITS HIGH POINT IF THE MULTIPLE WAS LIKE OVER 200.<br/>
>
> In other words, be fearful when others are greedy, because sooner
> than later the abundance of greater fools willing to buy the shares
> will diminish. When this thing finally craters, it will fall at twice
> the magnitude it ran up because fear is a stronger emotion than greed
> and gravity always accelerates a fall.
> YOU SEEM TO QUOTE BUFFET, YET YOU DEMONSTRATE A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING
> IN THE ETHOS. YOU ARE FEARFUL WITH THIS STOCK WHILST OTHERS ARE BEING
> GREEDY AND MAKING MONEY. BY THE TIME YOU GET ROUND TO GOING LONG,
> I WILL BE SELLING – LOL!
> BUFFET ALSO SAID – NEVER INVEST IN SOMETHING YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND.
> LETS FACE IT, IF YOU SHORTED A HIGH BETA, EMERGING MARKET CHINESE
> INTERNET STOCK THAT HAS IS EXTREMELY POPULAR AMONG ITS USERS, JUST
> AFTER THE MARKETS CRASHED, YOU SHOULD NOT BE INVESTING IN THE MARKETS
> FULL STOP!
>
> Bottom line: Alcoa’s earnings beat yesterday after the close has
> the market set for another big rally today, so I wouldn’t be surprised
> to see BIDU run up another $10-20 before the dust settles, but the
> bigger they are, the harder they fall. BIDU could eventually drop
> 10-20% in one session if they don’t blow away expectations the next
> time they report , especially when those expectations are getting
> sky high. I will attempt to short this bad boy once again, but will
> do so when the shares go back into a downward mode.
> BE SURE TO LET ME KNOW WHEN YOU DO – SO I CAN BACK-UP THE TRUCK AND
> TAKE UP A CONTRARIAN POSITION!!!

Kroger Supermarket Disappoints and Lowers Guidance

Today's drop is classic buying opportunity. KR's PE is much lower than the S&P 500 index average. The whole sector is inviting.

Priceline Gets Pricey

Bedeviled: Nice work..you sound like a Harvard MBA...If PCLN holders did decide to read the 10Q, they would be horrified by the very high risk this stock holds.


On Aug 24 05:50 PM Bedeviled wrote:

> Absolutely true that the PCLN emperor has no clothes. They cannot
> protect their market--in fact their one main tool that they have
> used to do so, US Patents, are about go away. PCLN as much as admits
> this in their 10Q discussing the changes in US patent law. PCLN has
> previously been asserted its patents against Microsoft and its Expedia
> site to keep them out of the market. Now the Supreme Court is deciding
> in its next term whether "business methods," such as the PCLN auction
> model, are protectable by patents. The law as it stands now has recently
> switched this answer to a "no." There is nothing to keep away the
> "slew of competitors." It makes you wonder if anyone reads a 10Q
> anymore.

Short Amazon: Poor Relative Strength

Yes..I have been running down to Walgreen's too often to restock my Preparation H supply--I have been wrong on this one big time, but every dog has his day!


On Aug 24 01:14 PM rrtzmd wrote:

> ...HAW!...man, you ARE a trip!...how far down are you on AMZN since
> your January article?...let's see, with AMZN at around $48 in November,
> 2008: "Amazon: Don't Fall for Fool's Gold"...then January: "Amazon.com:
> Possibility of E-Commerce Sales Tax Makes It a Short"...followed
> 2 weeks later by:
> " Amazon: Guidance Miracle Is Not in the Cards"...followed in March
> by: "Amazon's Rich Valuation Defies Logic"...followed in April by:
> "Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist"...followed two weeks later
> by: "Amazon Earnings Preview: How Long Before the Jig Is Up?"...and
> now AMZN's around $85???...HAW!...I wonder how much you spend a week
> on Preparation H!
>

Priceline Gets Pricey

You hit the nail on the head--great work! You should be writing the blog, not me!!!!


On Aug 24 01:18 AM User 439661 wrote:

> you failed to mention how much of priceline's earnings are due to
> the dot com era style of pro forma reporting. For the recent quarter,
> they reported gaap of 1.38 and pro forma of 2.02...
> over thirty percent of their earnings go to stock based compensation,
> and any future growth is going to be seriously mitigated by this
> ongoing dilution...

Shorting Baidu Easier than Shooting Fish in a Barrel

after today's $28 rise, I think it is time to short again as the market will end up giving back some of the gains by the bell

Shorting Baidu Easier than Shooting Fish in a Barrel

I appreciate your kind words..I covered...i too don't want to get greedy...


On Jul 22 10:13 AM TvonT wrote:

> Thanks for your thoughts. I'm nicely ahead on this trade this morning
> ( I was nervous yesterday); stock is off 2% percent in the 1st hour
> of trading and still headed south.
>
> I've got the mantra firmly attached to my monitor: Pigs get fat and
> Hogs get slaughtered. This is not a long term trade, get the $ and
> get out.
>
> Yeah!

Shorting Baidu Easier than Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Shane: I kind of see your point, but don't you think you could be drinking the kool aid on this one? Most of the growth and then some has already been factored in the current share price. At this point the hype on this stock reminds me of "irrational exhuberance" and tulip crash. The risk on this sucker is sky high at these elevated readings.The law of bigger numbers always comes to play in growth stories and your assumptions do not seem to take into consideration competitors gaining market share.


On Jul 21 08:51 AM Shane Farley wrote:

> china just passed 340 million web users and like 75% of these use
> Baidu almost daily. Their daily traffic is around 250 million users.
> Within a year the markets will be talking big about china being on
> the verge of having 450-500 million web users. Simply put, Baidu
> could actually be severely undervalued. Anyone who was doing heavy
> search marketing back in the early days of Google PPC know all too
> well how bids for search terms went through a hyper growth phase
> of like $.05 a click to $.44. Baidu is in this same early phase where
> bid prices, because of massive competition for traffic, is skyrocketing
> in China. This will add to the top line, bottom line, and to margin
> expansion in huge ways. Chinese users use the web more than USA users.
> Soon they will have twice as many users as the USA. Shorting baidu
> may be more like shooting yourself in the foot as bid prices for
> clicks in China jump from $.08-.$.10 to $.25 and Baidu earnings skyrocket.

Flowers Foods: Ready to Bloom

FLO is poised to rally. I like the fact that it has already dropped 33% from it highs on the year and it has become a takeover candidate.

Luby's: Why It's Time to Load Your Tray

Ron: Some valid points....I'll get back to you on my take..mark