Mark Krieger

Shrewd Investors are Buying A&P's Unique Bonds

of course GAP has been rising on takeover rumor--why else would it be so strong?? ( didn't I mention this tidbit in my story?) its fundamentals are horrible---I indicated the bonds were below investment grade in the piece ( how else would you get a double digit yield?) Yes it is a puff piece--pretty much every artilce on SA is--I'm promoting the positions I own--I am putting my money where my mouth is!!! waht's wrong with that?


On Nov 23 01:16 PM bear_mkt wrote:

> These A&P bonds aren't "very unique." There are plenty of other
> bond-based trust-preferreds out there in $25 denominations.
>
> I would disagree that these are "appropriate" investments for most
> investors for long and short term holdings. The GAJ bonds are rated
> junk, Caa1/CCC. If you search around, you can find better credits.
>
>
> With all the emphasis take-over rumors and scenarios and quick profits,
> and the omission of any explicit reference to credit quality, I'd
> have to rate this article as a "puff piece." Caveat emptor.
>
> A&P operates in a tough competitive environment. IMHO, GAP and
> GAJ have been rising on take-over rumors, not on sound fundamentals.
> Just my opinion.

Amazon Is Overhyped and Overpriced

nice. well written article. The fact is, human greed does not look at fundamentals-only momentum, The higher AMZN goes the harder it will eventually fall. The sheep are certainly being led to slaughter on this one

Shorting Baidu Easier than Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Shane: I kind of see your point, but don't you think you could be drinking the kool aid on this one? Most of the growth and then some has already been factored in the current share price. At this point the hype on this stock reminds me of "irrational exhuberance" and tulip crash. The risk on this sucker is sky high at these elevated readings.The law of bigger numbers always comes to play in growth stories and your assumptions do not seem to take into consideration competitors gaining market share.


On Jul 21 08:51 AM Shane Farley wrote:

> china just passed 340 million web users and like 75% of these use
> Baidu almost daily. Their daily traffic is around 250 million users.
> Within a year the markets will be talking big about china being on
> the verge of having 450-500 million web users. Simply put, Baidu
> could actually be severely undervalued. Anyone who was doing heavy
> search marketing back in the early days of Google PPC know all too
> well how bids for search terms went through a hyper growth phase
> of like $.05 a click to $.44. Baidu is in this same early phase where
> bid prices, because of massive competition for traffic, is skyrocketing
> in China. This will add to the top line, bottom line, and to margin
> expansion in huge ways. Chinese users use the web more than USA users.
> Soon they will have twice as many users as the USA. Shorting baidu
> may be more like shooting yourself in the foot as bid prices for
> clicks in China jump from $.08-.$.10 to $.25 and Baidu earnings skyrocket.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Negative sentiment is at all time highs. If you are a contrarian, this sets up a nice buying scenario. Usually the crowds are wrong and are akin to the herd being led to slaughter.I guess what I am trying to say, is don't get caught up in the fear thing-this noise clouds your mind from rationality and objectivity.Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy--how else are you supposed to buy low and sell high?

Kroger Supermarket Disappoints and Lowers Guidance

Today's drop is classic buying opportunity. KR's PE is much lower than the S&P 500 index average. The whole sector is inviting.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

The markets go in extremes in both directions. This irrationality provides ample opportunity for the prudent investor to exploit, either by opening a short position or a long one. it's typical herd behavoir, and those who have the insight to avoid that dangerous mentality will prosper. Disclosure: Long BRID, PBY and IPSU, Short: AMZN

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

You guys are getting a bit sidetracked..the article was also meant to demonstrate how good AMZN is as a "short play"---The stock plummeted almost 5% today despite the Dow ending up in the green.

Syms: Hidden Values Buried on Balance Sheet

Great story..thanks for the detective work. SYMS's is a similar scenario to BRIDgford Foods (BRID)-these guys own a plant near the Sear's Tower which is probably worth more than BRID's current market cap of $35 million alone. BRID also owns RE next to Disneyland, and plants in Texas and NC--The Bridgford family owns 80% of the shares.

Keeping an Eye on Highly-Levered Pep Boys

Lame article to say the least...this guy is way late to the party and is playing with fire on this one. His statements are in error. (1) debt to equity is not 85%, it is 71% ( $331/$466= 71%) (2) working capital---this is a retailer--of course most of this component will be inventory. (3) EBITDA for the first 9 months was positive at $21.3 million not a loss of $46.6 million, but EBITDA for the 3rd Q was a loss of $5 million. (4) most retailers do not hae the luxury of sale lease back because they onlt rent, not own..you have got to admit that raising $210 million thru the sale of only 63 stores is quite impressive. (5) you better cover before you get crushed

Amazon, Apple, Google: Buying on the Way Down

It appears you are throwing good money after bad.Trying to catch a bottom is akin to winning a lottery..it just aint gonna happen. ALL of these stocks could drop another 30-50% before the carnage finally ends.

The Dow at 4000? Don't Laugh, It Could Easily Happen

you are probably right about the political commentary I espoused...thanks for the comment


On Nov 23 04:15 PM Jim P. Smith wrote:

> Just a thought, but you need to lose the political ideology of your
> arguments. The Republican administration which preceeded the present
> Democratic admin vastly out-spent any administration prior and left
> us in the financial morass we're in. Whatever the present admin sees
> fit to try to solve our problems is a welcome diversion to the utter
> ignorance and 'let's bury our heads in the sand' mentality which
> dominated the past 8 years.
>
> I'm all for balanced budgets and fiscal restraint - mind you - but
> let's not forget how we got to where we are in 2009: Eight years
> of the partnership of Bush, Wall Street, Laissez-faire & Halliburton
> & Co. running our country and economy into the ground.

Imperial Sugar: Spike in Sugar Prices Sweetens Prospects

A couple of points I need to drive home that were not included are: (1) IPSU is getting $210 to $225 million million in insurance proceeds to rebuild its plant--- The damage to the plant was $13 million net impairment against book value. So the company will eventually have to show a large gain of as much as $212 million or $18.00 per share (2) The company expects to receive from $60-70 million in business interruption proceeds-this could be settled as early as the current quarter.--this could result in a gain of about $6.00 per share.About income tax: the accountants have some clever ways of avoiding the tax liability from these gains( they place the gains in a deferred column)

Short Amazon: Poor Relative Strength

Yes..I have been running down to Walgreen's too often to restock my Preparation H supply--I have been wrong on this one big time, but every dog has his day!


On Aug 24 01:14 PM rrtzmd wrote:

> ...HAW!...man, you ARE a trip!...how far down are you on AMZN since
> your January article?...let's see, with AMZN at around $48 in November,
> 2008: "Amazon: Don't Fall for Fool's Gold"...then January: "Amazon.com:
> Possibility of E-Commerce Sales Tax Makes It a Short"...followed
> 2 weeks later by:
> " Amazon: Guidance Miracle Is Not in the Cards"...followed in March
> by: "Amazon's Rich Valuation Defies Logic"...followed in April by:
> "Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist"...followed two weeks later
> by: "Amazon Earnings Preview: How Long Before the Jig Is Up?"...and
> now AMZN's around $85???...HAW!...I wonder how much you spend a week
> on Preparation H!
>

Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist

Nice analysis....you made some very compelling points..I realize at times my arguement is a bit farfetched. mark


On Apr 08 11:02 AM sdt993 wrote:

> First, who uses book value to measure a growth stock, or any stock
> for that matter these days? With all the write offs and accounting
> changes over the years, book value is generally meaningless outside
> the financial sector where you need regulatory capital. The value
> of a stock is the NPV of future free cash flows. BV looks backward,
> not forward. Second, AMZN may have gone public in 1997, but it lost
> money on a GAAP basis every year until 2003, as you might expect
> with what was then a start up operation. BV bottomed at -$1.4B in
> 2002 and has since grown to +$2.7, up $4.1B in the 6 years since
> it has been profitable. Third, share count has risen from 403 in
> 2003 to 436 at year end, up 8% over the period. Hardly a disaster.
> Where did the cash go? Gee, lets check the cash flow statement and
> balance sheet. Debt down from $1.945B to $.4B so thats $1.5 of debt
> paydown since 2003, Cash/Short term investments have gone from $1.3B
> to $3.7B, up $2.4B. SHare repo - just $.6B, not very much. Total
> CAPX since 2003 is just $1.1B and acquisitions about $.7B. So, total
> CFFO since 2003 is $5.5B, and i've just accounted for $5.6B. There's
> the answer to your big mystery. Your comments on fixed costs are
> borderline insane. AMZN turns its fixed assets 23.5X per year ($20B
> sales/.850 fixed assets) vs. 4.3X for WMT and 2.6X for TGT. There
> IS a short case to be made on AMZN, but this article is pure sophistry.

Imperial Sugar: Shorts Take the Upper Hand, But Not for Long

what do you mean less than perfect balance sheet? It is better than perfect: they have zero debt, $35 million in cash and are selling at 1/2 book value. Their low margin and cash flow is temporary-it is because of the closedown of thier plant due to the accident.Once the plant is back on line and at full production capacity, margins and cash flow will substantially improve.


On Mar 26 08:43 PM Shadowstock wrote:

> I took a closer look after getting home from work and have concerns
> about the weak cash flow, low margins and less than perfect balance
> sheet. For me this needs more work but will still hold my position
> for a trade.
>
> Good article, thanks!
>