Mark Krieger

Amazon Is Overhyped and Overpriced

nice. well written article. The fact is, human greed does not look at fundamentals-only momentum, The higher AMZN goes the harder it will eventually fall. The sheep are certainly being led to slaughter on this one

Short Amazon: Poor Relative Strength

no question ---i was terribly wrong on this one and paid dearly for the error of my ways...Fortunately I recovered some of my AMZN losses on BIDU's drop today.

Short Amazon: Poor Relative Strength

Yes..I have been running down to Walgreen's too often to restock my Preparation H supply--I have been wrong on this one big time, but every dog has his day!


On Aug 24 01:14 PM rrtzmd wrote:

> ...HAW!...man, you ARE a trip!...how far down are you on AMZN since
> your January article?...let's see, with AMZN at around $48 in November,
> 2008: "Amazon: Don't Fall for Fool's Gold"...then January: "Amazon.com:
> Possibility of E-Commerce Sales Tax Makes It a Short"...followed
> 2 weeks later by:
> " Amazon: Guidance Miracle Is Not in the Cards"...followed in March
> by: "Amazon's Rich Valuation Defies Logic"...followed in April by:
> "Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist"...followed two weeks later
> by: "Amazon Earnings Preview: How Long Before the Jig Is Up?"...and
> now AMZN's around $85???...HAW!...I wonder how much you spend a week
> on Preparation H!
>

Amazon Earnings Preview: How Long Before the Jig Is Up?

No--I'm not that logical..

Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist

great word --"sophistry"--one of my dad's favorite words!!!


On Apr 08 11:27 AM Hedge Fund Invest wrote:

> Good stuff. I like the word "sophistry." And AMZN is still probably
> overvalued.

Amazon: Dirty Little Secrets Persist

Nice analysis....you made some very compelling points..I realize at times my arguement is a bit farfetched. mark


On Apr 08 11:02 AM sdt993 wrote:

> First, who uses book value to measure a growth stock, or any stock
> for that matter these days? With all the write offs and accounting
> changes over the years, book value is generally meaningless outside
> the financial sector where you need regulatory capital. The value
> of a stock is the NPV of future free cash flows. BV looks backward,
> not forward. Second, AMZN may have gone public in 1997, but it lost
> money on a GAAP basis every year until 2003, as you might expect
> with what was then a start up operation. BV bottomed at -$1.4B in
> 2002 and has since grown to +$2.7, up $4.1B in the 6 years since
> it has been profitable. Third, share count has risen from 403 in
> 2003 to 436 at year end, up 8% over the period. Hardly a disaster.
> Where did the cash go? Gee, lets check the cash flow statement and
> balance sheet. Debt down from $1.945B to $.4B so thats $1.5 of debt
> paydown since 2003, Cash/Short term investments have gone from $1.3B
> to $3.7B, up $2.4B. SHare repo - just $.6B, not very much. Total
> CAPX since 2003 is just $1.1B and acquisitions about $.7B. So, total
> CFFO since 2003 is $5.5B, and i've just accounted for $5.6B. There's
> the answer to your big mystery. Your comments on fixed costs are
> borderline insane. AMZN turns its fixed assets 23.5X per year ($20B
> sales/.850 fixed assets) vs. 4.3X for WMT and 2.6X for TGT. There
> IS a short case to be made on AMZN, but this article is pure sophistry.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

jonny: Don't remind me--it was a terrible call and I lost my shirt on the trade. It wasn't my first bad trade nor will it be my last/ I think the whole market could see a dose of profit taking tomorrow so I could see a bit of relief. By the way- Kudos to you for the great writings you produced via your comments on this platform. I wish I had just 10% of your abilty to produce the persuasive engaging,articulate arguments you contributed--you really lit up this board and I appreciate it as it helped the article's popularity. Keep up the good work!

Amazon's Rich Valuation Defies Logic

Good point about the tax issue, you indicate a potential move to $85 on the high side, but you fail to mention AMZN's downside risk; I contend that the downside is roughly twice as bad as the upside potential-there is $30 downside risk and only $15 potential reward, creating a poor risk reward ratio

On Mar 12 06:35 AM alancelt wrote:

> I fully agree with this evaluation. The other thing that could hurt
> Amazon badly is sales tax. So far they have managed to escape paying
> sales tax in most states outside their base. With the recession biting,
> States will be looking at ways to boost their income and internet
> sales tax must be high on the list. Technically however the stock
> came out of an inverse head and shoulders formation so perhaps has
> an upside potential to around $85. If it gets there I would be going
> short again.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Negative sentiment is at all time highs. If you are a contrarian, this sets up a nice buying scenario. Usually the crowds are wrong and are akin to the herd being led to slaughter.I guess what I am trying to say, is don't get caught up in the fear thing-this noise clouds your mind from rationality and objectivity.Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy--how else are you supposed to buy low and sell high?

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

The markets go in extremes in both directions. This irrationality provides ample opportunity for the prudent investor to exploit, either by opening a short position or a long one. it's typical herd behavoir, and those who have the insight to avoid that dangerous mentality will prosper. Disclosure: Long BRID, PBY and IPSU, Short: AMZN

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

You guys are getting a bit sidetracked..the article was also meant to demonstrate how good AMZN is as a "short play"---The stock plummeted almost 5% today despite the Dow ending up in the green.

The Short Case for Amazon.com

You are right- I am trying to justify my position, and so far have been wrong and you have been right, as the shares seem to be going only in one direction "up" !!


On Feb 09 12:21 PM raytayzmd wrote:

> ...sounds more like YOU are trying to justify your postition..."today's
> unveiling...woefully failed to impress"???...today's unveiling was
> common knowledge on the web a MONTH ago -- so what did you expect?
>

The Short Case for Amazon.com

It sounds like you are tryng to justify your position. Sure AMZN is a great company, it isjust over priced. Today's unveiling of its latest kindle version woefully failed to impress the Street.

Why I Remain Short Amazon

the position merely represent a hedge or insurance against my long positions--Since 80% of my holdings are long and 20% are short, I do not mind seeing AMZN rally, as that means my long posiotns are also getting juiced up. AMZN is still very risky, if the macro economics continue to slide--consumers are not going to be thinking of books or trinkets to buy---thet are going to be in survive mode..A 40 PE in the market is too rich for logic.


On Feb 02 04:38 PM TimboM wrote:

> You don't have the best timing, do you?
>
> I mean, I realize what you are saying.....but you are fighting the
> market, which is rule #1. As in, don't fight the market.
>
> You use a lot of flowery words and fundamentals to justify your position.
> Don't. There is zero correlation between degree of performance and
> this stock price. The market asked, "Profit?", Amazon said, "Yes!"
> and the rest was history.
>
> Take your lumps and move on. Don't keep trying to justify an indefensible
> position.

Amazon Is Looking Like Starbucks of Yore: Too Expensive

nice article----the fact that AMZn gave guidance that actually could generate a 37% decline in earnings in the first Q ( or a gain as high as 6%) makes your earnings growth asumption of 15% per year and $ 3.00 per share by 2013 sound llike wishful thinking. The stock is no bargain anymore---