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Mark Krieger
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Mark Krieger is an avid stock market trader dedicated to the following ideals: (1) Focus on high relative strength, (2) Buy low, sell high (3) Short high, cover low, (4) Go against the crowd, (5) It's all about the rules and discipline- hold them dear (6) Analyze the balance sheet-seek low... More
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  • Tailsman: Time To Back Up The Truck

    Tailsman Energy (NYSE:TLM) has been decimated. The hate selling has been relentless. The stock has been deemed vile, toxic and horrific by more than enough (short sellers to name a few) as it has lost 1/2 its value in just a few months, and is sitting near a 12 year low.

    in my view, it has totally gotten a bum rap and has been punished way too much as a consequence. The beating is simply beyond belief. A couple of things contributing to the battering: (1) Crude prices have fallen to a three year low (2) Tax loss selling has heated up (so many have huge capital gains they need offsets with) (3) management has done a poor job communicating its vision and plan. (4) short sellers piling on ( creates additional supply) (5) the Repsol takeover talk has abated.

    There is no doubt that it is time to be greedy when so many others are fearful.

    The good things: (a) The shares have already bounced nicely from their lows and are now about 10% higher. (b) A recent analyst upgrade has surfaced (Global Hunter from neutral to buy) (c)The dividend yield is a very juicy 4.5%. (d) TLM made a major natural gas discovery in Colombia in CPO-9 (e) Carl Icahn is still a big backer (f) the company is still vulnerable as a takeover target (now even more since it has fallen so much) (g) with a mean analyst target price of $9.35,the appreciation potential is very high.

    Bottom line: this one is ripe for a juicy rally. At the very least, there are a ton of shares sold short that will eventually have to be bought back (covered) which will create demand. In fact, with 13.50 million shares currently short, that number is almost twice what it was just last summer. Translation; any good news could result in a massive short squeeze and a much higher stock price.

    Disclosure: The author is long TLM.

    Nov 27 11:02 AM | Link | 7 Comments
  • Luby's: Why Can't They Make Any Money?

    it is a bit perplexing that Luby's(NYSE:LUB)has so much trouble making money when it virtually does not have to pay any rent on 53% of its locations. In Fact in its last three year's, its EBITDA has fallen. In 2012, the company produced an EBITDA of $28.1 million, in 2013 its EBITDA fell 14% to $24.2 million. In 2014, its EBITDA was just $17.7 million, representing a 27% drop from its prior year. The company blames much of its woes to its Cheeseburger in Paradise purchase, but this excuse is getting old and worn out. Why not just pull up your big boy pants and make some painful cuts in your cost structure? get lean and mean again, so the top line will be able to filter down to the bottom line.

    All is not dark: there is a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.

    The combo units are working well. At the end of fiscal year 2015, there were 5 in operation which accounted for 4.5% of Luby's total sales. These stores average a whopping $88k per week in sales. As already stated, 2015 will bring one more combo unit to the fold when its Jackson, Mississippi unit is completed in Feb 2015.

    1st quarter results are due out near the middle of December. The Sidoti analyst has forecasted a 6 cent loss for the quarter with no sales forecast. Last year's 4th quarter generated sales of $87.3 million and a loss of 5 cents. Since it was revealed that its Fuddrucker's same store sales have turned positive for the first eight weeks of its first quarter, I think it is obvious that Luby's will beat this very conservative guidance. Look for a 2 cent loss on a 1% sales gain, to $88.2 million to be more like it.

    Disclosure: The author is long LUB.

    Tags: LUB
    Nov 26 8:38 AM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Fuel Systems Solutions Third Quarter Earnings Preview

    Fuel Systems Solutions (NASDAQ:FSYS) is set to release its third quarter results this Thursday November 6th, before the market opens. Analysts expect the company to lose 10 cents on sales of $86.50 million. Sales are expected to drop 11.40% from last years $97.6 million mark. Earnings last year for the third quarter were 5 cents.

    In its 2nd quarter press release, the company's guidance for 2014 was sales of $335 million to $355 million and EBITDA of $4- 8 million.

    Look for FSYS to lose 11 cents on sales of $85 million, but slightly increase its 2014 revenue range from $335 - $350, to $340 -$355 on a better than expected fourth quarter.

    The news will likely have little impact on the share price, other than a possible catalyst for some to book profits after last week's incredible 15% rise from its lows. The worst case scenario: we could see as much as a 50% retracement of recent gains.

    On another note: The fact that Becker Drapkin's Steve Becker has been appointed as a FSYS board member can be construed as a positive for the stock price. He might push for short term fixes, such as financial engineering ( stock buybacks, etc.) After all, he has plenty of incentive to get the stock price up, as he owns nearly 10%. He wants to be paid for his troubles and risk.

    Disclosure: The author is long FSYS.

    Tags: FSYS
    Nov 01 3:43 PM | Link | 3 Comments
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  • $LUB: Shareholder letter: http://bit.ly/13FbK0B
    2 days ago
  • $FSYS: cleaning house? another officer resigns. Roberto Olivo, Director of Operations, left the company according to today's 8-K filing
    2 days ago
  • $LUB: the new management team; http://bit.ly/1AXYkIi
    3 days ago
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