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Mark Krieger
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Mark Krieger is an avid stock market trader dedicated to the following ideals: (1) Focus on high relative strength, (2) Buy low, sell high (3) Short high, cover low, (4) Go against the crowd, (5) It's all about the rules and discipline- hold them dear (6) Analyze the balance sheet-seek low... More
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  • Coffee Holding Company: The Little Coffee Company Who Couldn't So Far, but Might!

    I'm am not going to lie, I got way too emotional about this stock and now own nearly 1% of its shares outstanding. Why did I get so enamored? Well, I have experience in the sector, being involved with The Chock full of Nuts buyout and the 400% appreciation of (NASDAQ:FARM) in the past four years. I also was successful in shorting (NASDAQ:GMCR) as it imploded. I like the fact that JVA has a $3 million buyback in effect, has a strong balance sheet and its primary management team has ample skin in the game with a 10% ownership stake.

    The company (NASDAQ:JVA) has done some good things recently, besides its stock buyback program : (1) it has discontinued its commodity trading business (2) it has gone on a road show to attract more institutional investors and to attract research coverage (3) it has expanded its Café Caribe distribution areas (4) it hired an outside IR firm to better communicate its vision (the same firm that was hired by Diedrich Coffee and saw its stock rise over twenty fold) (5) It opened up trading avenues with the Chinese (6) started a Tea line and a single serving line.

    Other interesting tidbits: Its largest customer is GMCR (currently amounts to 60% of JVA's sales), and there is always a possibility they may try and swallow them up. In addition, Joh H Becksinger could also look to acquire JVA because it has been on a recent tear buying US coffee operations. Finally, $FARM could also have its eye on JVA, because its new headquarters and distribution facility in Texas, will give it exponentially more capacity that they may try and absorb through acquisitions.

    The company is set to report its fourth quarter earnings on Jan 23rd. Hopefully before then, we will get some positive press. There is no reason this one can't be $7 stock one day!

    Tags: JVA, GMCR, FARM
    Nov 26 1:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Comparing Cracker Barrel With Luby's Provides Valuable Insight

    Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) just reported its first quarter results. The company was able to generate a top line of $703 million, and a bottom line of $41 million. Its net profit per dollar sold came up to 5.8%, meaning they kept nearly 6 cents of every dollar rung up on the register.

    Luby's on the other hand, reported fourth quarter results and was just able to break even on a top line of $122 million. If Luby's could simply achieve the same profit margin as CBRL, they would of earned $7,076,000 or 24 cents a share. On an annualized basis that would calculate to .96 per share or roughly a earnings multiple of 5.0! My point is, LUBY's isn't operating up to its full potential and as a consequence, possesses plenty of potential for substantial improvement (it can be fixed).

    CBRL, as well as most casual dining stocks, have an average multiple of 19. If LUB was able just to get its net margin equal to CBRL and enjoyed the same multiple, it would be trading at a respectable $18.24 per share.

    Near or around December 17th (the date they reported last year), Luby's is slated to release its first quarter report. Although traditionally, it is weakest quarter due to seasonality impacts, we could see some nice improvement due to a fall in food commodity prices ( as much as a 200 BP decrease). This fall could translate into earnings as high as 7 cents. We shall see.

    Tags: LUB, CBRL
    Nov 26 12:56 PM | Link | 7 Comments
  • Tailsman: Time To Back Up The Truck

    Tailsman Energy (NYSE:TLM) has been decimated. The hate selling has been relentless. The stock has been deemed vile, toxic and horrific by more than enough (short sellers to name a few) as it has lost 1/2 its value in just a few months, and is sitting near a 12 year low.

    in my view, it has totally gotten a bum rap and has been punished way too much as a consequence. The beating is simply beyond belief. A couple of things contributing to the battering: (1) Crude prices have fallen to a three year low (2) Tax loss selling has heated up (so many have huge capital gains they need offsets with) (3) management has done a poor job communicating its vision and plan. (4) short sellers piling on ( creates additional supply) (5) the Repsol takeover talk has abated.

    There is no doubt that it is time to be greedy when so many others are fearful.

    The good things: (a) The shares have already bounced nicely from their lows and are now about 10% higher. (b) A recent analyst upgrade has surfaced (Global Hunter from neutral to buy) (c)The dividend yield is a very juicy 4.5%. (d) TLM made a major natural gas discovery in Colombia in CPO-9 (e) Carl Icahn is still a big backer (f) the company is still vulnerable as a takeover target (now even more since it has fallen so much) (g) with a mean analyst target price of $9.35,the appreciation potential is very high.

    Bottom line: this one is ripe for a juicy rally. At the very least, there are a ton of shares sold short that will eventually have to be bought back (covered) which will create demand. In fact, with 13.50 million shares currently short, that number is almost twice what it was just last summer. Translation; any good news could result in a massive short squeeze and a much higher stock price.

    Nov 27 11:02 AM | Link | 7 Comments
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  • $GMCR: has come down way too fast and too far-extremely oversold and ready for a dead cat bounce. Could try and acquire $JVA
    Nov 14, 2015
  • $JVA: epic news on JVA this am, unless the information is erroneous.
    Nov 12, 2015
  • $FSYS: buy the dip. $25,000 of stock changing hands has stripped $10 million of market cap off this am
    Nov 11, 2015
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