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Mark Mansfield

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  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    Market Rates are extremely low right now due to our friend Bernanke. I'd expect that to be the case for some time in the future. More spec rates of course should be higher, but our "base" on which to add risk premium is pretty low.
    Mar 17 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    According to your profile Chihawk you are long MCP. I'm assuming this is dated information and you have either taken off your position or even gone short. This would certainly explain your motivation as we seem to be in the business here of questioning everyone's point of view based on their position. However, if there was any validity to anything that you are saying here, there would be at least one creditable analyst, media source, etc who would take your position. Investigative reporters, Wall Street analysts, etc. would love to make a name for themselves by exposing a "big rare earths fraud" if there was one. But sorry buddy, you're just talking through your teeth and that is abundantly clear.
    Mar 17 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    That is not even remotely true. Their Mountain Pass CA mine is currently under construction, all environmental permits were secured in December, and they expect to start full scale production from mining operations in 1st quarter of 2012... not "years away." Their current production, from previously stockpiled ore is sold for the rest of this year. Average selling price in the just completed quarter was $34.02... not some price from last year as Inviolent is preaching. The amount of conspiracy theories floating around in these comments is quite ridiculous and the reason why I am not quick to answer them.

    Source: online.wsj.com/article...
    Mar 16 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Human Genome: Buy the Pipeline Before Glaxo Does [View article]
    Thanks obscured. I was thinking about not responding at all to his second comment given how rude it was, but given that we do have other readers, I will. I said 5-10b, because obviously I have no idea of what the exact premium would be, so I gave a range of what they might need to come up with. And as per financing any such deal... cash is not the only way to skin the cat. They could do a stock/cash deal and offer some portion of cash and some GSK stock. They could issue some debt to finance, but given their size and financial strength, such an issuance would be no big deal.
    Mar 16 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Human Genome: Buy the Pipeline Before Glaxo Does [View article]
    Which is exactly what I stated. There was no warning, but the FDA does want more post marketing study for African Americans. That is certainly not a "green light" to prescribe to African Americans. It is not a prohibition either, but any physician worth his salt should be aware of the issue for this population.
    Mar 16 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    You don't apply a multiple to cashflows in an NPV analysis. You can use a multiple to come up with a terminal value though. The JPM/MS valuation models I cited use about a 12% discount rate. Why don't you read them? And I'm sorry, but having been an analyst before, I wouldn't rate a stock a particular way or give it a price target because some other side of my firm benefits from fees if I didn't agree with that rating: not just because it is illegal, but also because my compensation is based on the performance of my recommendations. If all my buys crash and my sells run to the moon... you can basically kiss my bonus and likely my job goodbye.

    I did not do my own model for MCP. I just don't have the time to reinvent the wheel. However, if you find the JPM/MS reports so "insulting" based on your conspiracy theory surrounding their investment banking relationship (though I guess you didn't notice that CIBC and Dahlman Rose have higher tgts), here is a link to my posting of the Piper report. You'll love it... only a $56 price target! www.marksmarketanalysi...

    I'd also note to anyone who hasn't noticed it already... every comment here is bearish. Doesn't that make any of you weary that the bus on the short side is a little full?
    Mar 16 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    Again... NPV boys... demand tomorrow, or next week isn't always the issue. Think about other stocks like HGSI. Their valuation is based on expectations of drug demand that will ramp up slowly. It won't be all at once. If someone told you... I'll take 50 dollars from you this year, next year, and 2 yrs from now, but then give you 250 a year for 15yrs. You would apply a discount rate, figure out of if the discounted value of those 250 increments 3yrs out surpasses giving up 50 dollars for the next three yrs. That's what we are talking about here. MCP isn't selling a bunch of rare earths tomorrow, so if demand/pricing is surpressed for a few months, that isn't really the issue. What is demand/pricing going to look like when the mine is operational and when will it be operational. That is what it is about.
    Mar 15 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    A Chinese Official Echos MCP comments about China turning into a rare earth importer on rising demand... www.bloomberg.com/news...

    Also Reuters reporting from a Rare Earths summit in Pittsburg that Japan could mean a temporary hit for rare earth prices, but long term fundamentals a bullish www.reuters.com/articl...
    Mar 15 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    I hope you took your short profits today Inviolent. I know I had some IWM puts I should have taken off this morning, but I was in a training class at work. At any rate... Analysts are compensated for their stock selection, not other fees generated elsewhere in the bank. That sort of thing used to happen, but it is now against the law. But anyhow, I think the trading activity in MCP speaks for itself. We basically feel to the Jan 25th morning lows and have bounced. With Japan falling apart today, things look like they are ending up relatively ok. I'd say we see $50.00 again before we see $40.00.
    Mar 15 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    Clearly and dramatically Japan is impacting rare earth stocks this morning... I wasn't surprised when Japan basically had a mea culpa last night and admitted things were much worse than previously stated with the nuclear situation. However I told my friends to buy Toyota in the pre-market... sorry, but I just don't believe that people Globallly are going to stop buying important products like Japanese cars. Sure, might have some plant shut downs temporarily, but many Japanese multinationals now produce as much or more outside as inside Japan itself.
    Mar 15 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    They are not mining yet, they only sold old pilings that are sitting around... the quarterly data is really rather irrelevant!
    Mar 15 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    P/E is not applicable to firms with no earnings or negative earnings. If this were the only means by which to value a firm, you would have never been able value an Amazon before it had earnings, any biotech plays prior to earnings, etc... Bonds are not valued on an earnings multiple either, but rather a net present value of discounted future earnings.
    Mar 14 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    The valuation analysis is justifiable and quite reasonable. If you have an alternative valuation we'd love to hear it. But saying that others have been wrong before and therefore we should throw the baby out with the bathwater is really no solution at all.
    Mar 14 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    Piper Jaffray? CIBC? The list goes on... sorry, but you can't find a single firm who feels that MCP isn't undervalued at current prices.
    Mar 14 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Molycorp Is a Buy Despite Its Sticker Price [View article]
    Lockup expiration was on January 25th... in the morning of that day it traded down to almost $40 and then jumped almost immediately when the company announced a doubling of capacity and the precise amount of shares which insiders agreed to sell. Take a look at the price action since Jan 25th and you will see that your assertion that MCP has traded down 20% since lockup expiration is not in fact even remotely correct.
    Mar 14 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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