Mark McHugh

There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do

Jase,

Looks like you're gonna win. The thing you should be happiest about, is that it won't be your tax dollars that will pay for this astonishing rally.

You won't here me complaining as an investor, it's all in the game (including government intervention). As a taxpayer, however, I'm looking for a revolution to join.

good luck to all.

There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do

Jase,

I think you've got a very good grasp of the situation. My own survival instincts tell me not to bet against Goldman (and no, I wouldn't do it now either).

Perhaps, what people outside the US don't understand (thanks to our ever-cheerful media) is that, realistically, the bottom of the housing market is nowhere in sight. More and more loans are gonna go bust.

I'm sorry I can't find a link for you right now, but I am sure that I've read that Goldman is exposed to huge amounts of counterparty risk. So, when things turn ugly, it doesn't matter if you made the bad purchase, or loaned the money for it.

I wish you luck with your decision, and I admire your conviction, but I really think we are just kidding ourselves as to how much systemic risk there is right now. Just keep your wits about you (we've already got enough poor people).

As for the pint - you're on.

There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do

Jase,

C'mon. People who bet against Goldman are already rich YTD. They are the thieves who have run out of victims, even with their boy running the treasury (and that's a hint for you). The shareholders are next.

And in case you've been living in a cave this last year, book value don't mean sh*t.

Hopefully, they put themselves on their conviction sell list.

The SEC's 'Sacred Cow' List: Where Are WaMu and Wachovia?

thanks all. BIG THANKS to gosailing and Greybeard. I completely missed the meaning of "primary dealers" in the statement (I never even think about government securities), but that is the 'sacred cow' list. Allianz is Dresdner Kleinwort, and Royal Bank is Greenwich Capital. Cantor Fitzgerald is private, and Bear Stearns will be absorbed into Lehman. I must concede the LBMA connection becomes a secondary footnote.

I still think the question, "what does this mean?", is valid. I detest the selective enforcement of rules and was puzzled, to say the least, by the list. Maybe we should be expecting turmoil in the US goverment securities market.

Shabba - I collected my short interest data from shortsqueeze.com and used google finance for some of the shares outstanding data (if it was missing at shortsqueeze). Many financials have very large short interest (NCC- 21%, for example). The point I was trying to make was the companies on that list don't have large short interest (excepting FRE, FNM & LEH). I couldn't tell you how accurate the information provided is, or how short interest from other exchanges is reflected on ours, if at all. But, from the info I can get, it certainly doesn't seem like the companies are under siege on our exchanges and that's all the SEC controls. So, why are they concerned?

In both investing and life, I believe that those "weird little things" often turn out to be significant in hindsight, and if you can decipher them sooner rather than later, you'll be way better off. This may be one of those things. Plus, I can't resist a good conspiracy theory.

Thanks again all, for sharing your insight.

Investment Banks: Are You, Dear Investor, the Sucker?

Mark,

The truth is so unsettling, that no one wants to face it.

As for me, I'm taking your advice on DBA (another great article).

I know you are not anti-capitalist. The real danger is the game getting so crooked that no one wants to play.