Mark McQueen

Venture capitalist, long only, dividend investing
Mark McQueen
Venture capitalist, long only, dividend investing
Contributor since: 2007
Company: Wellington Financial LP
Thanks for stopping by E Nuff
Perhaps Torstar will swing from a skinny $1.8 million of total cash flow in 2013 to $100 million down the road. Perhaps.
Operating cash flow was $81 million last year, but that was before $29 million of capex, $41 million of dividends, etc.
I am focused on the original premise of the article that Torstar was attractive based upon its current book value multiple. Neither of us can analyze with any precision what cash flow will be in three years given the declining nature of the media division's topline, and the impact that the shift in reading habits away from hard copy romance to e-books will have on Harlequin. At least I can't.
But I do note that the operating profit in the book business fell from $82 million in 2011 to $71 million in 2012, and to $48 million in 2013.
MRM
thanks Frankie
it's not that I don't know HOW to edit, its just that I find it very unreliable and hardly worth the trouble. ;-)
The app I bought was called "sync my iTunes". It loaded my catalogue onto the Q10 after a few failed attempts. I can't explain why the 9900 Desktop Manager could find the iTunes catalogue on the same hard drive but the new Blackberry Link cannot. It finds the photos and Word documents without a challenge.
MRM
green_ember
I will definitely take you up on that offer. Thx
I hope the BB10 users reading the post will know what I am talking about. For the rest, it is software version 10.2.
MRM
Cagi
That is a logical conclusion to draw, given the FFH "bid" came the business day after the pre-announcement of a terrible quarter.
MRM
You are right, Michael, that the silence may mean nothing. And if it wasn't for the AIMCO commentary, I would be 95% sure you are spot on.
Plenty
I agree that there is almost always a discount between an offer and the M&A closing date.
With 3 or 4 "bidders" potentially circling BBRY, plus the $9 offer in hand, wouldn't you expect shares to be trading at a premium to the $9, rather than below?
Current quote just speaks to the market's view of the true situation, that's all I was saying.
MRM
Blkwtrdragon
How so?
MRM
As a BB10 user I have an interest in seeing this process succeed, in fact. I am no longer long the stock:
http://bit.ly/19EKXTk
...and would never be short something without disclosing.
Apology accepted.
MRM
Hello Toastypro
From its website, DynCorp doesn't appear to be much of a tech company. R&O for aviation, personal security, intel, etc. Cerberus may well have a plan for BBRY. My point is that they appear to have shown up once the stock broke below $8, which suggests a financially-motivated interest and not one of a strategic, tuck-under kind.
You may well be right, but the fact pattern is what drove my post.
MRM
Let's not get testy. Here is a post that will give you a sense of what I was referring to:
http://bit.ly/180cXhB
MRM
A bunch of things that mattered to BBRY enterprise customers were dispensed with by the QNX team on the Q10; my theory is that he could help restore some of what made the 70M customers so sticky to date
Thanks for the perspective.
It appears that my "personal incompetence" reflects the experience of many other smartphone consumers, unfortunately, as we saw in RIM's quarterly release yesterday. And that this mirrored "incompetence" saved me tens of thousands of dollars by exiting the stock at C$14.58 on June 21st is a shame I will have to come to terms with. ;-)
The original blog post at http://bit.ly/1255TcO was a lament about the product, not an attack on BBRY longs. It was directed at management in the hopes they can fix things before they become (even more) irreparable. That it drove me to sell the stock, on the basis that I'll do better elsewhere all things being equal, doesn't mean that RIM can't survive. All it meant was that I'd rather have that dollar in HGN than RIM.
I week I'm up 8% versus being down 24%. So my dollar is worth $1.08 now rather than $0.76. Big deal; I'm not a short term trader looking for a small gain. But RIM shares need to go up 42% now just to catch up to the performance of my latest incremental Halogen investment after 5 trading days.
RIM might be a $30 stock in 2016. I hope for management, consumers, shareholders and the nation that it is. And, as I wrote, if the dynamics at the company adjust to make that prospect possible, I'll only be too happy to buy back in when those facts become clear.
In the meantime, investment capital is precious and other pastures look greener at this moment, driven entirely by my sense of the early Q10 launch.
MRM
Hello Allnightlong
If you'd like an Affidavit from my broker at Scotia Capital at 40 King Street W. in Toronto attesting to my years as a RIM shareholder I can arrange for same. There are also a dozen days over the past 2 years where we've discussed this same topic on BNN Business News Network. There's no grassy knoll here. A single opinion-oriented blog post at http://bit.ly/1255TcO has no impact on a stock that already has a 32% short position.
MRM
Hello Nate
I sure do
MRM
Hello again.
This was a personal investment, as stated at the top of the original post. Our clients haven't lost a penny in the wake of the stock's 90% drop from the high. Our firm (Wellington Financial LP) runs a corporate debt fund; it doesn't go long or short equities. And I'm not short RIM, so you can wipe that from your list of barbs, too.
Thanks for all of passion and suggestions of fixes.
MRM
Hello world
Thanks for the thoughtful comments and feedback.
To be clear, I've not ditched my Q10, nor am I short BBRY. You read a lament, which should not be taken as a criticism of you who have chosen to stick with RIM shares for an eventual turnaround. It was, however, a recognition that I had allowed blind loyalty / misplaced confidence in RIM management to allow me to ride RIM down for the past few years. Despite all of the warning signs.
The one thing that kept me in the stock was the promise of the Q10. I shared a bunch of examples of why the Q10 is not our Pollyanna. Why it is not an obvious Android killer; and why the people we've lost the the iPhone aren't going to coming running back in droves.
Many of my concerns about the device can and should be fixed. It is true that there is a stock app; I should have been more precise to say that the Bloomberg one that was so popular for the 9900 isn't yet available. As for the lack of a Starbucks app, it was merely a case in point.
Ask a lawyer about the hassle of the cutting and pasting with the QNX software; it almost brings tears to the eyes of Associates. May not matter to you, but every time the QNX focus degrades the work performance of these devices, RIM loses another reason that has historically kept their existing users from changing teams.
If RIM's team can turn the Q10 family into the device that kept 9700 / 9900 users happy (perhaps I should say satisfied) all those years, while adding some "modern day" smart phone table stakes, there may be hope for the stock beyond an eventual takeover premium.
After 5 years of fumbling, I just think that same investment dollar could be redeployed elsewhere. If they get the handset right at long last, and the guidance is fantastic for the next 3 quarters, I'd be only too happy to buy the stock back at higher prices.
In the meantime, I'm thinking it's time that common sense trumped loyalty. To all of you longs, I love the passion!
MRM
According to ROB Magazine and the New York Times, Mr. O'Leary made just under $6 million on his stake when Mattel acquired The Learning Company for ~US$3.6 billion.
http://bit.ly/Y86HAH
http://bit.ly/WmGHwh
Thanks for stopping by. As I said in the post, I used the last audited balance sheet for the purposes of this analysis. Clearly, cash and debt will move up and/or down on a quarterly basis.
MRM
Thx BOYCOTT
I do appreciate this. I'm not sure that takes away from the point. However, if the LSE and TSX don't actually merge their exchanges, the concern may well be moot as each Nation's local regulatory regime will be maintained.
MRM
Hello all. Author here. I was struck by this comment:
"Hey...who taught you to write/edit? I'm glad you mentioned Canada, else I would have never read the article? Why didn't you tie in Madonna so that you could catch more readers with this non-sequiter."
Apologies if you were anxious to read more about how Canada regulates its banks. Individual politicians have no role in such things, which in our country requires no explanation whatsover (that's where I'm based and the market I write to, so to speak); that's why I didn't go into detail.
But, you've opened my eyes to something. Since I never know when Seeking Alpha might catch and repost something, I'm always at risk for appearing to be cutting corners and assuming a lvel of knowledge.
As I write a blog, and this is not a paid subscription to the NYT, you might consider cutting me some slack perhaps? Or not. ;-)
MRM
right you are
shame on me for missing the typo
Mark