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Mark Vierra's  Instablog

Mark Vierra
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Sometimes it's the simple basics that become cloudy in today's complex market environment. I will break down the tangled web to it's core and shed new light that will make it easier to grasp. Often analysts become trapped in their bubbles and far too comfortable in their definitions despite the... More
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  • Mark's Weekly Trading Log (12/17-12/21)

    Log Entry 12/23/12.

    Week ends Up from 1413.58 to 1430.15 , 16.57 handles or 1.17%.

    1000

    1000

    SPX Monthly trend lines.

    1000

    S&P Weekly Charts.

    Weekly intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    SPX ADX/DMI MACD Weekly Chart.

    1000

    SPX Weekly Measured Move Up.

    1000

    SPX Weekly Inverted Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    Daily S&P Charts.

    Intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    Near term trend lines

    1000

    SPX 3yr. Regression Channel.

    1000

    SPX Regression Channel, closer look.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork closer look.

    1000

    Quote:

    50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA.

    1000

    50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA.

    1000

    SPX Daily McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.

    1000

    NYSE Advancing/Declining issues.

    1000

    Daily Chart Pattern Updates.

    SPX Daily Candle/Pattern Analysis Worksheet

    1000

    SPX Daily long-term Flags.

    1000

    SPX Daily Flat Base chart.

    1000

    SPX Daily Symmetrical Triangle

    1000

    Quote:

    SPX Daily Measured Move Up. (Target met)

    1000

    SPX Daily Measured Move Up. (New)

    1000

    SPX Daily near-term Bull Flag

    1000

    Quote:

    SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    SPX Pattern targets updated.

    1000

    Volume.

    /ES Daily Various VAP POC.

    1000

    Risk.

    Daily VIX.

    1000

    /ZB 30yr. US Treasury Futures.

    1000

    /DX US Dollar Futures.

    1000

    /DX US Dollar Futures, Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    Portfolio.

    No trades this week. However, (The kiss of Death) Just when I put in an order (approx. 100$) for one lot of UPRO,

    1000

    That I bought for 75.50,:

    1000

    The market retreats.mad.gif This is second time, prompting me to don my:

    1000

    and curse 2guns.gifthe Market Makers for watching my orders and pulling the plug before I could get over on them.laughing.gif

    Current Portfolio:

    1000

    Guesstimated Projections.

    This is the final part of my log where I throw a guess out there for fun.
    This is not to be taken too seriously. But I do think it's good to get down on record

    the current thought process and expectations for later critique.

    Last weeks projections:

    Quote:

    This Week and to conclude.

    This week a cross below IHS throw-back and a rubberband effect

    below the 50 day SMA to slingshot upward above throw-back and Daily Measured Move target.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    This Week and to conclude.

    This market is said to be driven by the news (fundamentals) from the current spotlight on Washington.

    But, the Technical Analysis is speaking to me, reflecting the indecision.

    The bottoming and topping tails have been good at showing support and resistances.

    Ranges being stomped out and trend lines respected.

    That /es drop was bought up says bullish to me.

    This week I think that bottom will be felt out again before moving up.

    Going over the different time frame charts:

    Monthly = Neutral

    Weekly Mixed = Topping Tail = Bearish DMI MACD = Bullish
    Daily trend slightly Bearish, but holding as much gains as it did = Bullish / Regression = Bullish / Inverted Head and Shoulders = Bullish

    Daily Symmetrical Triangle Bearish

    VIX Bullish

    HS on the /DX = Bullish stocks

    Total Bullish out weighing the Bearish. = That's it decision made. Voting Up in the poll.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    That's it for this week. Stay tuned same Bat Time same Bat Channelthumbup.gif

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Get in your Votes HSM.

    Link to Weekly Poll

    Link to Monthly Poll

    Link to Quarterly Poll

    Member Voting Record 2012.

    Member Voting Record 2013.

    Other Links.

    Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

    Data From Jan.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

    This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.laughing.gif

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

    I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

    References:

    Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

    http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

    News, Futures, Screener and more.

    http://www.finviz.com/

    Software:

    Ubuntu Linux OS
    Ubuntu Gimp image editor

    Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

    TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

    ***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
    **Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

    http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

    Oanda Forex

    Etrade

    Disclosure: I am long UPRO, AAPL, T, FCX.

    Dec 23 6:54 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Mark's Weekly Trading Log (12/10-12/14)

    Log Entry 12/16/12.

    Week ends Flat/Down from 1418.07 to 1413.58, 4.49 handles or -0.32%.

    1000

    1000

    SPX Monthly trend lines.

    1000

    S&P Weekly Charts.

    Weekly intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    SPX ADX/DMI MACD Weekly Chart.

    1000

    SPX Weekly Measured Move Up.

    1000

    Daily S&P Charts.

    Intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    Near term trend lines

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    SPX 3yr. Regression Channel.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork closer look.

    1000

    50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA.

    1000

    SPX Daily McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.

    1000

    NYSE Advancing/Declining same as McClellan, neutral.

    Instead as the year comes to close a look at a comparison to various sectors.

    1000

    Something is missing, Ah! I forgot a sector.2guns.gif

    1000

    Daily Chart Pattern Updates.

    From my other intra-week thread:

    Quote:

    SPX Daily Candlestick/Chart Pattern Analysis Worksheet.

    From the Pattern Site:

    Quote:

    A complex head-and-shoulders bottom is a chart pattern that looks like an inverted head-and-shoulders but with multiple heads, multiple shoulders, or sometimes both. The break even failure rate is low and the performance is good from this chart pattern.

    1000

    Quote:

    The evening doji star is one of the better performing candlestick patterns. It has a high reversal rate, ranking 12th, and the performance over time is respectable, too, but not outstanding. A check of the numbers shows that downward breakouts are weakest, and upward ones are strongest with the bear market/up breakout configuration doing the best of the bunch.

    Conclusion:

    I think some near term weakness in store. (Dang, and I voted up)laughing.gif

    Follow through from Inverted Head and Shoulders likely not coming this week.

    A test of Inverted Head and Shoulder throw-back line (maybe as far down as 1410).

    SPX Daily Candle/Pattern Analysis Worksheet

    1000

    SPX Daily Flags.

    1000

    SPX Daily Symmetrical Triangle

    1000

    SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    SPX Daily Measured Move Up. (Target met)

    1000

    SPX Daily Measured Move Up. (New)

    1000

    SPX Pattern targets updated.

    1000

    Volume.

    /ES Daily Various VAP POC.

    1000

    Risk.

    Daily VIX.

    1000

    /ZB 30yr. US Treasury Futures.

    1000

    /DX US Dollar Futures.

    1000

    Portfolio.

    No trades this week.

    1000

    Guesstimated Projections.

    This is the final part of my log where I throw a guess out there for fun.
    This is not to be taken too seriously. But I do think it's good to get down on record

    the current thought process and expectations for later critique.

    Last weeks projections:

    Quote:

    This Week and to conclude.

    Looking for small gains this week, I think S&P will close near 1425 area.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    This Week and to conclude.

    This week a cross below IHS throw-back and a rubberband effect

    below the 50 day SMA to slingshot upward above throw-back and Daily Measured Move target.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    That's it for this week. Stay tuned same Bat Time same Bat Channelthumbup.gif

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Get in your Votes HSM.

    Link to Weekly Poll

    Link to Monthly Poll

    Link to Quarterly Poll

    Member Voting Record.

    Other Links.

    Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

    Data From Jan.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

    This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.laughing.gif

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

    I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

    References:

    Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

    http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

    News, Futures, Screener and more.

    http://www.finviz.com/

    Software:

    Ubuntu Linux OS
    Ubuntu Gimp image editor

    Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

    TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

    ***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
    **Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

    http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

    Oanda Forex

    Etrade

    Disclosure: I am long UPRO, AAPL, T, FCX.

    Dec 16 6:42 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Mark's Weekly Trading Log (12/3-12/7)

    Log Entry 12/9/12.

    Week ends Flat/Up from 1416.18 to 1418.07, 1.89 handles or 0.13%.

    1000

    1000

    SPX Monthly trend lines.

    1000

    S&P Weekly Charts.

    Weekly intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    SPX ADX/DMI MACD Weekly Chart.

    1000

    SPX Weekly Measured Move Up.

    1000

    Daily S&P Charts.

    Intermediate term trend lines.

    1000

    Closer Look.

    1000

    SPX 3yr. Regression Channel.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork.

    1000

    Andrews Pitchfork closer look.

    1000

    Quote:

    1000

    SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders and the 175/200 day SMA comparison, with

    thoughts on my trading style.

    1000

    1000

    50 day SMA and the 200 day SMA.

    1000

    SPX Daily McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index.

    1000

    NYSE Advancing/Declining Issues.

    1000

    Daily Chart Pattern Updates.

    SPX Daily Candle/Pattern Analysis Worksheet

    1000

    SPX Daily Symmetrical Triangle

    1000

    SPX Daily Inverted Head and Shoulders.

    1000

    Quote:

    I can see corrective ABC phases in both the Bull and Bear cases.

    1000

    1000

    SPX Daily Measured Move Up.

    1000

    SPX Daily Round Bottom.

    1000

    Quote:

    Another bullish formation in the background.

    1000

    SPX Daily Bull Continuation Flag.

    1000

    SPX Pattern targets updated.

    1000

    Volume.

    /ES Daily Various VAP POC.

    1000

    Risk.

    Daily VIX.

    1000

    /ZB 30yr. US Treasury Futures.

    1000

    TYX 30yr. Treasury Yield.

    1000

    /DX US Dollar Futures.

    1000

    On a side note:

    Quote:

    One thing that has stood out for me is that the S&P has religiously followed gold as a leading indicator.

    1000

    Portfolio.

    1000

    Guesstimated Projections.

    This is the final part of my log where I throw a guess out there for fun.
    This is not to be taken too seriously. But I do think it's good to get down on record

    the current thought process and expectations for later critique.

    Last weeks projections:

    Quote:

    This Week and to conclude.

    I think a test of Inverted Head and Shoulders Throw-Back line imminent. And, will close Flat to slightly Down.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    This Week and to conclude.

    Looking for small gains this week, I think S&P will close near 1425 area.

    Weekly Projection:

    1000

    Daily Guesstimate.

    1000

    That's it for this week. Stay tuned same Bat Time same Bat Channelthumbup.gif

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Get in your Votes HSM.

    Link to Weekly Poll

    Link to Monthly Poll

    Link to Quarterly Poll

    Member Voting Record.

    Other Links.

    Links to S&P DX Comparison Spreadsheet.

    Data From Jan.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjcECxXNIPcKdGJBV2pCdFdObms5OXBPR3dOb1ZfeVE

    This Google Doc. link is a complete List of my shared Google Doc links.laughing.gif

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ntcn3LkoQTOr9Fh9r3eMlMOEOE-kLcRgf5WmXdizOCc/edit

    I try to keep them current, but sometimes links will have to be updated.

    References:

    Chart patterns, candlestick formations and measurements:

    http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html

    News, Futures, Screener and more.

    http://www.finviz.com/

    Software:

    Ubuntu Linux OS
    Ubuntu Gimp image editor

    Mozilla Firefox, Opera, Google Cromium and Google Chrome browsers

    TD Ameritrade TOS (thinkorswim) Platform (paper trade account)

    ***Here is my default workspace xml file from my Ubuntu Linux opt/thinkorswim directory.***
    **Right click on link to save as file to your computer.**

    http://ubuntuone.com/5fM5JjzKZ2NWE7UJiErr0a

    Oanda Forex

    Etrade

    Disclosure: I am long UPRO, AAPL, T, FCX.

    Dec 09 5:56 PM | Link | Comment!
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