Mark W. Bertolin

Growth, dividend investing, tech, healthcare
Mark W. Bertolin
Growth, dividend investing, tech, healthcare
Contributor since: 2011
Company: Innovative Insights LLC
Although the paper loss is a bummer we continue to build share count through the dividend and selling puts into the low $20s to further increase our position. It will be a long haul but we see a profitable future for the business.
First of all thank you for continuing your excellent work. I appreciate your level headed approach. We are long GPRO and continue with a long range bullish thesis. We are continuing to purchase shares using naked puts as the price declines. We expect 2016 to be the claw back year and are looking to 2017 for share recovery. The product is well differentiated and a solid performer. International is anticipated to be the bulk of the upside with the present product line. We also anticipate GPRO to become more of a mainstream brand targeting the second camera position in families enjoying photography from their phones as the primary camera. We see this as the long range driver for sales increases since GPRO offers a unique photography experience that marries well with the mobile phone snapshot trend.
Currently we feel that LINE has a high probability of survival and appears to manage the current environment better than others. We are using naked puts to replicate a dividend until it recovers at which time we will narrow the strike price and use a naked put ladder to scale into a long position.
With 158 comments he is making money on SA. I'm glad for him because he won't make any AAPL money with his thesis.
This is not investment advise. I have held the TNH position. Our thesis is that it will further decline as the dividend drops. This is due primarily to China dumping cheap fertilizer into the USA market making the sale of nitrates less profitable. A positive is the decline in natural gas pricing.
If shares are under basis recommend a sell. If close to basis harvest a loss if that is a component of a tax reduction strategy. If over basis hold,collect the dividend and wait. We don't see danger of liquidation and CF is in ok financial condition. Painful but when China destabilizes an industry it takes years to recover. This exact process occurred with steel. We are anticipating a similar result. 3-5 year resolution in profits and dividends to follow. Our model does not forecast a return to the mean but we feel it is an eight to ten year cycle. with prices this low we have all dividends reinvested.
I'm looking for a 10% drop with a miss on earnings but acceptable guidance and am positioned for such a move.
Every portfolio needs a speculative component. Although the market is in its infancy this company has created significant buzz and with first in advantage might carve out a nice niche. Long term there will be other big Pharma players but their research,marketing and first approvals all combine for a risk high buy, but one that deserves a look. If it takes hold with third party payers it will explode. The veterans administration is a solid peek at how insurance carriers might see the market. Less lifetime expense due to increased patient health.
No matter what you write your short position is very likely a losing tactic for Amazon. It's a different company with different goals. I enjoy your articles but more beating the negative drum doesn't help investment decisions. An article on mobile payment would be helpful. The big boys are headed there very quickly.
Sorry Paulo, I appreciate your evaluation but disagree with your conclusion. Amzn is now in the buy zone. Naked puts are the tool. Retail is a low margin world and building a moat as huge as amazon has makes competition less threatening. I'm betting that Amzn has plenty is room to move to increase profits and cash flow. They will be a dominant force for many years to come. Yes the valuation is silly but we are buying future market share dominance in many sectors. Sell puts, cover shares if assigned and redo until pricing reaches high points not supported by revenue expansion. There is a lot of money to be made trading amazon. Readers should focus more on making money for themselves and less on guessing the future of Amazon. Trade where there is opportunity.
Brendan,thanks for posting. I will do further research looking for changes in language. This does present a risk with prices at a low point. A greater risk for the long term investor with a higher basis. If anyone can locate the basis for the 75% partner shares please share as this would give investors good insight as to risk.
We consider all the fundamental aspects of a business and key on competitive environment. With TNh the prospect of greater need for their products outweighed current challenges. The dividend is a key factor relative to price including the previous dividend cut.
I was very hopeful for their water purification project. I guess I'll have to wait and see. Not selling anytime soon thanks for the comments.
So will mcp go broke or become the market leader and get back to $90 a share?
I retired at 55 its not magic. Work, Save, Work, Save. Spend less then you make forever. Discover your passion for things in the markets and fuel your retirement with interesting investments that pay dividends. Its supposed to be fun. Go do what you want to do. Working in retirement is also in the "fun" category when you are doing what you want to do, when you want to do it. Do not believe what the media is telling you. Do it with your own math! Invest as early as you start working and never stop.
Another tactic to boost income while the market settles down, if that is ever the case, is to sell puts as an open order. Selling a put delivers the premium immediately and obligates you to buy shares if pricing matches your strike price. Currently March 22nd Put pricing for a strike at $30 is trading at $.81. This works as a dividend replacement strategy.
Thanks for the comments. I should have better outlined the MLP catagory and applied it to VNR rather than present as earnings a and dividends. For internal measurement we consider MLP performance as if it was a stock for better 1-1 comparison. The numbers and calculations are output from a regognia and proprietary software system. From the comments it looks like consensus is that VNR is a good position to have on our shopping list.
Sell APPL Puts while the price is down and enjoy the income. If the world ends and AAPL prices fall enjoy the expanding dividend. Its hard to not get caught up in the media game but earnings are reality. Invest for earnings.
Technicals VS Obama EPA control over manufacturing.
RSI is climbing. We plan on riding out the volatility and earn dividend shares as pricing recovers.
"Recognia has detected a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern formed on Terra Nitrogen Units (TNH on NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 144.47 to the range of 161.00 - 165.00. The pattern formed over 22 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
Terra Nitrogen Units has a current support price of 144.18 and a resistance level of 156.11."
Thanks for the insights. I find it strange that tnh continues to slide. It seems more logical that if selling is a dividend cut reaction it should have happened more swiftly. Now that it's in oversold territory we might find out if it is a rebalance or if there is something wrong that is yet undiscovered.
Today down to $140. Yesterday after hours it was up $8.00 so extreme volatility has arrived just in time for Christmas. My reentry target was $143.
Today TNH hit a 52 week low on no news. There are four firms listed with current opinions. One underperform, 2 buys and one neutral each from December 2013. I didn't see any insider trading. Thompson did downgrade from buy to hold 12/16 coordinating with todays share price decline. The RSI is currently at 25.19. Todays price drop broke what I had set for resistance of $152.18. Volume was up 10k from the 10 day average.
John I can't provide pricing advise. I will say that it's a good idea to follow this for awhile and buy prior to the div ex date if it still meets your criteria.
Yes there are other factors at play with TNH. If you have specific thoughts that will help investors please share. One of the reasons I wrote the article was to shed some light on the industry so all comments are valuable.
What is your analysis of current tnh price drop? It seems over done but that usually means there is something else at play that I don't realize yet. I'm interested in your opinion on price for tnh.
Interesting and helpful article. If I take my basis for MCP preferred and divide by the shares following distribution I get exactly $35.00 per MCP share. So if you are right its a winner. I think for those that are patients it will be a winner.
35 policies were evaluated.
I'm interested in your thoughts on LMT. Its had a huge run up but the dividends look terrific. Any thoughts to adding it to your portfolio? LMT is in a sector you are not represented in.
I neglected to mention that I enjoyed the article and found it helpful and well written.
iOS 7, Maverick, apple tv, All headed to your living room along with streaming music. Mobile drives current revenue and expectation but content and eco system drive the future. Apple will morph into the new network provider for content as television and media companies did in the past. Winners- Apple, Google, Amazon Losers- Microsoft, Blackberry,Sony. Samsung just sells boxes, they will contribute hardware for the new media distribution and consumption model driven by Apple and Amazon.
I have the puts timed so they expire prior to the new Fed Chairman coming into office. I agree that there are various ways to use the sell to open puts and like jimherrells idea. I selected the 95 due to its perceived safety, but having an October and a December position is a solid tactic. I have the strike placed at 95 with the intent of lowing the share basis from my sold positions basis if assigned.
There is a market for Timex and General Motors. There is also a market for Rolex and Porsche. They are not the same markets. Google is not apple and regardless of chip and speed comparisons products are different. Its time the market lets Apple be Apple and stops trying to make it a company it does not want to be.
Selling weekly Calls can be a profitable tactic although I have a hard time estimating a strike price for the short term that pays enough to offset the risk of selling shares I want to keep. This tactic makes more sense for those trading AAPL rather than investing. August 23 Calls with a strike 530 were trading Friday at $1.13. I don't think making $100 is lucrative enough to offset the potential loss of the 100 shares if AAPL outperforms through the remainder of 2013. Long dated Calls offer the opportunity to buy them back and keep a portion of the premium if stock prices decline. Thanks for all the comments!