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Mark W. Bertolin  

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  • Time To Eat Your Apple Pie [View article]
    With 158 comments he is making money on SA. I'm glad for him because he won't make any AAPL money with his thesis.
    Dec 16, 2014. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen: Paying Less For Dividend Income [View article]
    This is not investment advise. I have held the TNH position. Our thesis is that it will further decline as the dividend drops. This is due primarily to China dumping cheap fertilizer into the USA market making the sale of nitrates less profitable. A positive is the decline in natural gas pricing.

    If shares are under basis recommend a sell. If close to basis harvest a loss if that is a component of a tax reduction strategy. If over basis hold,collect the dividend and wait. We don't see danger of liquidation and CF is in ok financial condition. Painful but when China destabilizes an industry it takes years to recover. This exact process occurred with steel. We are anticipating a similar result. 3-5 year resolution in profits and dividends to follow. Our model does not forecast a return to the mean but we feel it is an eight to ten year cycle. with prices this low we have all dividends reinvested.
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon A Sell Into Earnings? [View article]
    I'm looking for a 10% drop with a miss on earnings but acceptable guidance and am positioned for such a move.
    Oct 23, 2014. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReWalk Robotics Ltd. IPO: Skeletons In The Closet [View article]
    Every portfolio needs a speculative component. Although the market is in its infancy this company has created significant buzz and with first in advantage might carve out a nice niche. Long term there will be other big Pharma players but their research,marketing and first approvals all combine for a risk high buy, but one that deserves a look. If it takes hold with third party payers it will explode. The veterans administration is a solid peek at how insurance carriers might see the market. Less lifetime expense due to increased patient health.
    Sep 19, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Thing Is Odd [View article]
    No matter what you write your short position is very likely a losing tactic for Amazon. It's a different company with different goals. I enjoy your articles but more beating the negative drum doesn't help investment decisions. An article on mobile payment would be helpful. The big boys are headed there very quickly.
    Aug 19, 2014. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    Sorry Paulo, I appreciate your evaluation but disagree with your conclusion. Amzn is now in the buy zone. Naked puts are the tool. Retail is a low margin world and building a moat as huge as amazon has makes competition less threatening. I'm betting that Amzn has plenty is room to move to increase profits and cash flow. They will be a dominant force for many years to come. Yes the valuation is silly but we are buying future market share dominance in many sectors. Sell puts, cover shares if assigned and redo until pricing reaches high points not supported by revenue expansion. There is a lot of money to be made trading amazon. Readers should focus more on making money for themselves and less on guessing the future of Amazon. Trade where there is opportunity.
    Jul 27, 2014. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen: Paying Less For Dividend Income [View article]
    Brendan,thanks for posting. I will do further research looking for changes in language. This does present a risk with prices at a low point. A greater risk for the long term investor with a higher basis. If anyone can locate the basis for the 75% partner shares please share as this would give investors good insight as to risk.
    May 25, 2014. 01:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen: Paying Less For Dividend Income [View article]
    We consider all the fundamental aspects of a business and key on competitive environment. With TNh the prospect of greater need for their products outweighed current challenges. The dividend is a key factor relative to price including the previous dividend cut.
    May 21, 2014. 10:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The North American Rare Earth Industry: Calm Before The Storm For U.S. Security Of Supply [View article]
    I was very hopeful for their water purification project. I guess I'll have to wait and see. Not selling anytime soon thanks for the comments.
    May 16, 2014. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The North American Rare Earth Industry: Calm Before The Storm For U.S. Security Of Supply [View article]
    So will mcp go broke or become the market leader and get back to $90 a share?
    May 15, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Can't Retire At 30, Then How About 38? [View article]
    I retired at 55 its not magic. Work, Save, Work, Save. Spend less then you make forever. Discover your passion for things in the markets and fuel your retirement with interesting investments that pay dividends. Its supposed to be fun. Go do what you want to do. Working in retirement is also in the "fun" category when you are doing what you want to do, when you want to do it. Do not believe what the media is telling you. Do it with your own math! Invest as early as you start working and never stop.
    Feb 19, 2014. 06:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Hold While Digging For Dividends [View article]
    Another tactic to boost income while the market settles down, if that is ever the case, is to sell puts as an open order. Selling a put delivers the premium immediately and obligates you to buy shares if pricing matches your strike price. Currently March 22nd Put pricing for a strike at $30 is trading at $.81. This works as a dividend replacement strategy.
    Feb 4, 2014. 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: High Yield With Acceptable Risk [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I should have better outlined the MLP catagory and applied it to VNR rather than present as earnings a and dividends. For internal measurement we consider MLP performance as if it was a stock for better 1-1 comparison. The numbers and calculations are output from a regognia and proprietary software system. From the comments it looks like consensus is that VNR is a good position to have on our shopping list.
    Jan 30, 2014. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Getting Past The Dip [View article]
    Sell APPL Puts while the price is down and enjoy the income. If the world ends and AAPL prices fall enjoy the expanding dividend. Its hard to not get caught up in the media game but earnings are reality. Invest for earnings.
    Jan 28, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen - Making Sense Of The Price [View article]
    Technicals VS Obama EPA control over manufacturing.
    RSI is climbing. We plan on riding out the volatility and earn dividend shares as pricing recovers.

    "Recognia has detected a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern formed on Terra Nitrogen Units (TNH on NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 144.47 to the range of 161.00 - 165.00. The pattern formed over 22 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.
    Terra Nitrogen Units has a current support price of 144.18 and a resistance level of 156.11."
    Jan 6, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment