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Market Folly

 
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  • PotashCorp and Mosaic: Get Your Orders Ready [View article]
    pshah, correct I am. They are hitting their 50 day moving day averages and are ripe for entry. The market is finally selling off the strong sectors and this is what people like me have been waiting for. This is the same cycle that played out a few months ago... first the financials and weak sectors get sold off, then finally the strong sectors become weak as well. Use that weakness to your advantage.
    Jul 2, 2008. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Mosaic Looking to Sell Its Nitrogen Segment? [View article]
    suhaas - what you are forgetting though is the demand for fertilizer overseas. even if there is no need for it right this moment in the states, they need it elsewhere and are gobbling it up. they have pricing power. so, say the US flat out didnt want to pay for it anymore (vs them not needing it due to floods), the same scenario would play out... they'd take it overseas and sell it there.
    Jun 26, 2008. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PotashCorp and Mosaic: Get Your Orders Ready [View article]
    syjcca - point taken. it really depends on people's investment styles. my personal style is a hybrid. i could fully just sit and "buy and hold" these names. but, i'm just using other patterns i've noticed to my advantage. taking profits is a smart thing to do along the way anyways. then you buy back on dips.

    all depends on one's individual style really. and its not "constant trading"... only occurs every few months, a time frame where you should be naturally taking profits if you have them anyways

    user155- yea well aware of IPI. already have fertilizer exposure though. will monitor them to compare though and swap if they outperform the others ;)
    Jun 21, 2008. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PotashCorp and Mosaic: Get Your Orders Ready [View article]
    WACG - i am in these names for fundamental reasons to begin with. i have simply noticed a technical pattern of the past months that seems to continue to play out, so i take advantage of it to help maximize profit

    tim plaehn - these producers have pricing power. if someone in the USA doesn't want to pay the high prices, they take it overseas. the demand is that real. so, the same logic applies to the farmers in the USA not needing any. the overseas markets WILL need it. so the fert producers sell there. limited supply + high demand = pricing power for producers.

    leh - exactly, good points. i use a hybrid style of fundamentals and technicals. fundamentals to provide me an investment thesis to get into the name to begin with, and then technicals for entry/exit/price targets/stops
    Jun 21, 2008. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Fund Tracking: Blue Ridge Capital (John A. Griffin) [View article]
    G-Rab thanks for the compliments. You're right in your thinking in that I'm sure some of these funds do indeed "manipulate" their holdings to make it seem like they are holding something when in actuality they are short... since they know that short positions are not reported in the filings. There's no way for us to know though. And, that's the reason why I track more value oriented funds because if they're really in it for the value of the company then they would hold over an extended period and it would be very hard to misconstrue a position that they have been accumulating over a few quarters.

    In terms of nutrisystem specifically... they were long and then sold out of it. I found this move very interesting because Lone Pine Capital (another ex-Tiger mgmt fund) has a heavy short position in nutrisystem via puts. So, you could be right in that Blue Ridge might have had a net short position in nutrisystem all along, and like you said they could have just been trying to access mgmt by showing them their long position. I think that would be a very feasible situation, and that just gets even more in depth in terms of analyzing these things. We can speculate, but never really know for sure. That would make perfect sense to me though given that Lone Pine had a solid short size position through puts. Good thoughts overall. You can see the write-up I did on Lone Pine on my blog as well.
    Jun 15, 2008. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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