Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime [View article]
Skip Olinger,
Not every article out there has to be about stock picking, does it? Do you rely on articles from others to make your decisions for you? We've laid out a macro framework and have left the rest up for you to decide. If you're desperate for stock picks, we'd recommend checking out some of our older articles on shorting the credit card companies (COF in particular, which we had shorted way back at $45 but are currently not involved in). Just click some of the links in the piece above. But, ideally, you'll want to look at credit card companies and banks with large credit card exposure and make your own decision. We currently have no position in any, as we are waiting for more attractive levels to establish new shorts.
Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation [View article]
Thanks for all the comments. We agree with those of you who have said this is a crowded trade. In the article, we even noted that our publishing such a piece is most likely a contrarian signal to get out or at least take profits in the near-term. Robertson has been in different forms of this trade (curve steepeners, steepener swaps, etc ) since '08 so he's its obviously in his best interests to publicize his positions.
Since his interview with Value Investor just came out, we wanted to highlight that. Obviously the timing of this article is not the best, as many of you have pointed out. Proceed with caution certainly.
10 Highest Paid CEOs for 2008: Unbelievable [View article]
Please note that we did indeed note that we thought McClendon was one of the top managers in the country as he has performed well over the long-term. We're merely highlighting the fact that he was bailed out for his pain caused by CHK stock. Were CHK shareholders bailed out for their pain? Nope. That's all we're trying to point out as unfair.
That being said, he (like practically everyone on the list) is overcompensated. No one deserves that much money. Think about it for a second, what can you do with all that money? It's almost absurd. People live comfortably and lavishly for much less than that. If they exceed expectations by a longshot then maybe, just maybe they deserve ridiculous sums of money. But, at the same time, money like that could be used to fix the business, return to shareholders, etc.
Commenter 'Gravity' has it right where the boards are to blame for the ridiculously high pay packages. It's all a big 'clique' at the top of these organizations.. everyone at the top is looking out for each other and this buddy-buddy mentality needs to change. No one is going to step up and desire change because they're scared they'll be ousted from the clique.
We're merely trying to highlight the issue that changes need to be made and a performance based incentive program needs to be initiated.
Goldman Sachs: The 50 Most Important Stocks for Hedge Funds [View article]
tipalla,
The positions above are not picks from Goldman themselves, but rather from a select group of hedge funds that employ fundamental strategies. All of the funds we have handpicked to follow in our normal tracking series are included and many other funds as well. You're right you should take the list with a grain of salt. However, realize that by focusing on fundamental hedge funds that have longer investment timeframes you are better off as the timelag won't have as much of an effect. A fund is less likely to sell completely out of a core position in merely one quarter. This is backed up by evidence in backtesting using Alphaclone's software which shows that the timelag's effect is minimal and you can still outperform simply by following their ideas. But as always, blindly following picks is never recommended. Do your own DD. Thanks for the comment.
Hedge Fund VIPs, According to Goldman Sachs [View article]
Right, I'm not complaining about Mark at all. Like he said we talk a lot.
I'm just baffled as to how my article on the Goldman VIP list has YET to be published on SA, yet Mark's article (which covers my post) was published instantly on SA. I posted the original article on my site some 8+ hours ago. www.marketfolly.com/20...
Fund Manager David Einhorn Buying Gold and Miners, Reluctantly [View article]
Rolex18K,
I suggest you take a second to even learn about hedge funds... all of the things you say are misinformation and sheer ignorance. Greenlight's website doesn't let you read about them because they are a hedge fund and hedge funds are open only to accredited investors. You have to have a net worth of $1 million or make over $250,000 annually to qualify. Hedge funds cannot advertise or market either. So, as such, they have to keep a low profile as that is one of the regulations on them.
Go read up on them before making asinine statements. Greenlight has been around since 1996 and their main fund has returned 20% annually. Do the math.
For more info on Greenlight/Einhorn and their recent portfolio updates, as well as their investor letter in its entirety, we've covered it here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
Pershing Square's 15% Return in November Sounds Fishy [View article]
Insider Monkey's main error stems from the fact that they're purely using the 13F filing as a means of gauging performance. Ackman held/holds more than just equity positions. Not to mention, the 13F filing details positions as of Sept. 30th and as other commenters have already detailed, General Growth Properties (GGP) has undergone a major corporate event since then.
Whitney Tilson's Lesson on 13Fs and Updated InterOil Position [View article]
I'm appalled that you would insinuate that I am aiding any sort of illegal activity. I cover hedge funds on a daily basis on the site. It's very rare you see any sort of color from these funds on their shorts so obviously once I saw the info I passed it along. Just as I pass along info I discover relating to hedge fund long positions. I have no ties to any of the hedge funds covered whatsoever and no interests/positions in IOC so I'm completely impartial. Tossing around loose accusations as you are is frivolous.
While boxed shorts are a legitimate concern when tracking long/short hedge funds via 13F funds, your comment is misguided. As Alphaclone has demonstrated with their backtested hedge fund replicator portfolios, the timelag effect is minimal in terms of performance. Additionally, we focus on long-term value oriented managers as they have lower turnover and as such you will notice that they HOLD many positions over multiple quarters. Therefore, it is very beneficial to track them.
nice write-up. just want to emphasize that using TBT is recommended for trades only, not longer term short positions. because, over time, the leveraged ETFs have issues tracking their underlying indexes since they reset on a daily basis.
a trade on treasuries though, TBT is your go-to vehicle. longer term short would be better with shorting TLT or buying puts on TLT. shorting TLT carries the problem of having to pay the dividend and buying puts on TLT is problematic because the puts are jacked up with premium since so many have flocked to this long-term bet recently.
we laid out our rationale behind a longer-term short of treasuries play here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
ETF Investors Mistakenly Stock Up on USO: Buy USL Instead [View article]
not the author, but my take on DXO is it is riskier because a) it is a leveraged position in oil and b) it is an ETN rather than an ETF, so there is counterparty risk
but the positive with that vehicle is there is seemingly less downside given the low share price, whereas the other oil ETFs/ETNs are not nearly as close to $0 as DXO. really a trade-off. i personally would avoid placing leveraged bets in a deleveraging environment. not to mention counterparty risk could be a big issue should financial institutions continue to falter.
Wal-Mart: Thriving During Retail Recession [View article]
yup, plays into the whole "trading down to cheaper alternatives" thesis. long WMT and MCD and other cheap retailers as a hedge against an overall short retail play (especially discretionary). wrote about it more here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
Pershing Square Gains 15% in November, Skeptics Emerge - A Lesson in Hedge Fund Tracking [View article]
Thanks H.J.
Keep in mind though that all of our articles are posted directly on www.MarketFolly.com. Seeking Alpha does not publish all of them so you've certainly missed a few. We'd love to have you as a reader over on our main site. Thanks for the comment!
Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime [View article]
Not every article out there has to be about stock picking, does it? Do you rely on articles from others to make your decisions for you? We've laid out a macro framework and have left the rest up for you to decide. If you're desperate for stock picks, we'd recommend checking out some of our older articles on shorting the credit card companies (COF in particular, which we had shorted way back at $45 but are currently not involved in). Just click some of the links in the piece above. But, ideally, you'll want to look at credit card companies and banks with large credit card exposure and make your own decision. We currently have no position in any, as we are waiting for more attractive levels to establish new shorts.
Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation [View article]
Since his interview with Value Investor just came out, we wanted to highlight that. Obviously the timing of this article is not the best, as many of you have pointed out. Proceed with caution certainly.
10 Highest Paid CEOs for 2008: Unbelievable [View article]
That being said, he (like practically everyone on the list) is overcompensated. No one deserves that much money. Think about it for a second, what can you do with all that money? It's almost absurd. People live comfortably and lavishly for much less than that. If they exceed expectations by a longshot then maybe, just maybe they deserve ridiculous sums of money. But, at the same time, money like that could be used to fix the business, return to shareholders, etc.
Commenter 'Gravity' has it right where the boards are to blame for the ridiculously high pay packages. It's all a big 'clique' at the top of these organizations.. everyone at the top is looking out for each other and this buddy-buddy mentality needs to change. No one is going to step up and desire change because they're scared they'll be ousted from the clique.
We're merely trying to highlight the issue that changes need to be made and a performance based incentive program needs to be initiated.
Goldman Sachs: The 50 Most Important Stocks for Hedge Funds [View article]
The positions above are not picks from Goldman themselves, but rather from a select group of hedge funds that employ fundamental strategies. All of the funds we have handpicked to follow in our normal tracking series are included and many other funds as well. You're right you should take the list with a grain of salt. However, realize that by focusing on fundamental hedge funds that have longer investment timeframes you are better off as the timelag won't have as much of an effect. A fund is less likely to sell completely out of a core position in merely one quarter. This is backed up by evidence in backtesting using Alphaclone's software which shows that the timelag's effect is minimal and you can still outperform simply by following their ideas. But as always, blindly following picks is never recommended. Do your own DD. Thanks for the comment.
Hedge Fund VIPs, According to Goldman Sachs [View article]
I'm just baffled as to how my article on the Goldman VIP list has YET to be published on SA, yet Mark's article (which covers my post) was published instantly on SA. I posted the original article on my site some 8+ hours ago. www.marketfolly.com/20...
Just funny/ridiculous
Fund Manager David Einhorn Buying Gold and Miners, Reluctantly [View article]
I suggest you take a second to even learn about hedge funds... all of the things you say are misinformation and sheer ignorance. Greenlight's website doesn't let you read about them because they are a hedge fund and hedge funds are open only to accredited investors. You have to have a net worth of $1 million or make over $250,000 annually to qualify. Hedge funds cannot advertise or market either. So, as such, they have to keep a low profile as that is one of the regulations on them.
Go read up on them before making asinine statements. Greenlight has been around since 1996 and their main fund has returned 20% annually. Do the math.
For more info on Greenlight/Einhorn and their recent portfolio updates, as well as their investor letter in its entirety, we've covered it here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
Pershing Square's 15% Return in November Sounds Fishy [View article]
We rebutted Insider Monkey's article here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
Whitney Tilson's Lesson on 13Fs and Updated InterOil Position [View article]
Q409 Hedge Fund Filings Begin [View article]
Going Long on TBT [View article]
a trade on treasuries though, TBT is your go-to vehicle. longer term short would be better with shorting TLT or buying puts on TLT. shorting TLT carries the problem of having to pay the dividend and buying puts on TLT is problematic because the puts are jacked up with premium since so many have flocked to this long-term bet recently.
we laid out our rationale behind a longer-term short of treasuries play here: www.marketfolly.com/20...
ETF Investors Mistakenly Stock Up on USO: Buy USL Instead [View article]
but the positive with that vehicle is there is seemingly less downside given the low share price, whereas the other oil ETFs/ETNs are not nearly as close to $0 as DXO. really a trade-off. i personally would avoid placing leveraged bets in a deleveraging environment. not to mention counterparty risk could be a big issue should financial institutions continue to falter.
Wal-Mart: Thriving During Retail Recession [View article]
Value vs. Price: Trade in Your Gold for Oil and Agriculture Futures [View article]
Pershing Square Gains 15% in November, Skeptics Emerge - A Lesson in Hedge Fund Tracking [View article]
Keep in mind though that all of our articles are posted directly on www.MarketFolly.com. Seeking Alpha does not publish all of them so you've certainly missed a few. We'd love to have you as a reader over on our main site. Thanks for the comment!
Warren Buffett's Worst Trade and Biggest Mistake [View article]