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  • 9 Dividend Aristocrats Reward Investors [View article]
    We've been researching this topic. We think that the "late starters" need growth and possibly small cap value "styles" in their portfolios if they want to accumulate enough for a decent lifestyle.
    Aug 26 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Bubble Is 'Beyond 1929 And 2007' [View article]
    Actually, "risk off" can be applied when ( amongst a combination of other components ) the S&P500 > than it's 40 year CAGR for 2 consecutive years. Components 1 and 2 here:

    2012 and 2013 fit this profile = 2014 risk off
    Aug 25 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even More Ammunition For This 5-Year Bull Market [View article]
    If anyone can use AAII sentiment surveys in a precise and empirical way in determining the direction for the stock market, more power to them !
    Aug 25 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buybacks Vs. Dividends: PowerShares BuyBack Achievers Portfolio Comes Out On Top [View article]
    Thanks for "new" insightful research ... related article
    Aug 20 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Dividend Income Grows To Staggering Levels By Reinvesting And Compounding [View article]
    Yes, and it all equates to total return. Accumulating the most $ total return (within your risk tolerance and preferably in a tax deferred account), whether it be with MLP's, growth stocks, futures, quality dividend stocks, small caps, emerging market stocks, precious metals, etc., in your accumulation phase up into the withdrawal phase of retirement, is the goal. The gains accumulated via these means (if other than quality dividend stocks), can then be applied towards purchasing a portfolio of quality dividend stocks with the attendant income stream. Armed with the knowledge that an average historical total return for a well diversified dividend growth portfolio is between 10% and 12% (includes the "staggering growth" that results from reinvestment) can lend perspective in weighing returns via other options in getting to that goal.
    Aug 18 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter, But Not For The Reason You Think [View article]
    Diversification can also mean holding other stock universes that can ultimately provide more total return in the future than "quality" dividend growth stocks exclusively. Investor "A" with $1+ million and secure pension and employment within 5 - 10 years of retirement, will have different goals from investor "B" who has gotten a "late start" in asset accumulation with, say, less than $100K and no pension. Investor "B" investing exclusively in a large portfolio of dividend growth stocks ( represented by DRIPX fund with 63 stocks ) at 10% CAGR probably won't make up the asset accumulation shortfall easily within 20 years. By diversifying into a Small cap ETF with a proven methodolgy and low fee structure (NYSEARCA:VBR) and a growth ETF (NASDAQ: with same, investor "B" can get further towards their goals.
    The links below shows various stock portfolio universes and corresponding compound annual growth rates. "Dividend growth favorites" represents CAGR of a highest optimal return for a 10 stock dividend growth stock portfolio. DRIPX is a "real time" fund representing a more realistic portfolio of 63 quality dividend growth stocks and corresponding CAGR with inception in 1999. As we can see, over various time frames, the DRIPX garners about 60% of the highest optimal DG portfolio and performs at the lower end of the 3 universes.
    As the different styles go in and out of favor, the diversification would cover the market "favoritism" and provide a higher CAGR.

    If investor "B" were more "intrepid", then they could use empirically derived tactical asset allocation with risk mitigation in the same manner here:
    Aug 16 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    Maybe it could become a new cognitive bias; "Dividends as free money illusion"
    Aug 13 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    That chart has been used numerous times. It really should be annotated with CAGR. 10.5% - 11.5% CAR seems to be about the return that has been norm in these articles depending on what/ # of stocks are in the portfolio. Now back in 1972, if you would have bought and held 10 of the "survivor" stocks that happen to be DG "favorites", the return would be 14+%.
    Aug 13 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Yes, but even the ex-div date stock price adjustment is debated in these articles / comments !
    Aug 12 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Chart link below representing "real" time performance of Dimensional fund DFSVX Small Cap value, 3 factor Fama and French methodolgy compared to M63 fund DRIPX ( excellent benchmark of the DG methodolgy, IMO; dividends reinvested for you within the fund ) . Vanguard Small cap value (NYSEARCA:VBR) could also be used for small cap .
    Both Small Cap and DRIPX could be good choices for a "diversified" portfolio, each with the same volatility, and without doing the maintenance required ( making annual rebalancing adjusments, individual purchases, setting up DRIP plans, dividend reinvestment transactions, etc.) for a large portfolio of individual DG stocks ( unless the average person "has time" for doing such activities )
    Aug 12 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter Until They Don't [View article]
    Don't count out small cap value. With risk mitigation (Market Map tactical model; hopefully, eventually to use the process as an ETF ), small cap value could be a part of a diversified portfolio in an investors accumulation glide path years.
    K. French data used in calculations below.

    We agree with the tenents of a dividend growth portfolio. Yet, it depends where one is in their accumulation path. Are they behind ? How much have they accumulated and how old are they ? If they are "older" and are behind or "late starters", then 100% dividend portfolio won't get them to where they want to be. This is a population that needs to be served and they need to accelerate their accumulation for any possible chance of a sustainable retirement.

    Also, M63 fund DRIPX, an excellent representative "benchmark" for dividend growth portfolio had a -52% drawdown from 2007 - 2009 ( if that sort of thing is relevent ) . All DG portfolio drawdowns are not created equal.;dataParams=%7B%22zoom...
    Aug 11 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    Hard to get a handle on what % of the population has exposure to the stock market or even knows how to open a brokerage account. In my social sphere, I know a "handful" of people. And of that handful, just a couple/few seem to grasp basic concepts ( and these are very intelligent people with master's and Ph'ds ) and have actually conceptualized some sort of "plan" above just holding mutual fund(s) in their 401K's or handing money over to a financial advisor. There seems to be a small population on these DGI forums that participate in discussion and who grasp some/the "concepts". If there is dissonance amongst the practitioners of the method, then how can the "financially uneducated" understand it ( not to mention "value trades, real estate, momentum stocks, options, debt, emerging markets, private equity, ipos, or other forms of trading/investing"?
    Aug 10 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement; A Few Examples [View article]
    Berkshire H is fine but, since in one's accumulation years, you don't care / not supposed to care about the fluctuations in the market ( or so the theory goes in the buy and hold, dividend growth portfolio "mindset" ), why not try to accumulate, tax deferred, as much as you possibly can with small cap value such as Vanguard small cap value (NYSEARCA:VBR), and then right after you retire, construct the high yield / low payout portfolio for income?

    Small cap value VBR vs. Berkshire H vs. benchmark Dividend portfolio M63 ( total return )
    Surprisingly, volatility was the same between the small cap VBR and the Dividend fund yet small cap accumulates more $ for future dividend stream ...
    Aug 9 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    Our work shows moderate drawdowns during Aug and Sept. and moderate loss during the 3rd qtr. ( historically ).

    And if not, we still stay focussed on 20 years investment time frames
    Aug 7 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatile Cocktail: A Poor July Ahead Of The S&P 500's 'Most Dangerous' Months Of The Year [View article]
    Thank you sir .. will do
    Aug 6 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment