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  • QTS Selection For 6/30/2015: VB (Or NAESX) [View instapost]
    Thanks for the update . My version still in cash http://bit.ly/1zJlqRm ..
    2015 identified as a "high risk" profile year http://bit.ly/1BwEzH5. Many 3rd quarters during high risk profile years would allocate to Long Bond / TLT if interest rate trend is postive, yet, trend for bonds in July 2015 is negative ( so far ) . Cheers
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    Levels of optimism have been empirically tested and project forward returns ala a paper published on SSRN by Kraav and Friedman 2011
    Jun 30, 2015. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    Thanks for doing that
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    Good work Chuck , As a research project, I went to back issues of the widely regarded IBD for year 2009 and, over the course of 2009 ( starting June ), selected random stocks from the IBD 100 list ( published every Monday ) with high EPS and RS ranking, price > 10.
    Total positions = 8 06/2009 - 05/2015.

    Results:
    GMCR 19.5 78 300.0%
    BIDU 34 205 502.9%
    STEC 19 32.6 71.6%
    RINO 12.7 0.2 -98.4%
    EBIX 17 33 94.1%
    VPRT 51 67.6 32.5%
    HMIN 36 30 -16.7%
    PCLN 218 1140 422.9% average 163.6%

    Portfolio of Dividend Growth favorites:; mrk, jnj, mcd, ko, pg, ed, mo, wmt, xom ,mmm (divs reinvest) return = 121%

    QQQ ( 100 stocks ) averaging in purchase prices in 2009 return = 184%

    Since 2004, I have been optimistic about QQQ and I still favor it as a primary holding
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    Can you provide the list of stocks and their returns ? It would be a good comparison study for the next article that I am writing ... thx
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Need A Retirement Strategy For All Seasons [View article]
    One of the performance benchmarks for DG that I use is the long term record ( validated by Hulbert financial and one of the top 5 long term letters ) of Investment Quality Trends newsletter. They've been using the the same DG portfolio methodolgy since the early 80's ( from the book "Dividends Don't Lie " ) and their annualized return since inception has been 11+%. Their approach is different than buy and hold yet has appeared to be robust within the application towards the DG universe.

    http://bit.ly/1LoWtn5
    Jun 24, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 25 Things I Wish I Learned Before I Opened My First Brokerage Account [View article]
    # 26 Read Oaktree Capital's quarterly memos written by chairman Howard Marks - a successful money manager's unconvoluted views on risk and portfolio management ...
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introduction: Ward's Portfolio Project [View article]
    Does this mean that a "premium" author can use the regular article format to promote their premium service ? I've attempted to publish articles with valuable content ( content as informative as this article's ?) which have been rejected kicking me into instablogland ...
    Jun 21, 2015. 06:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introduction: Ward's Portfolio Project [View article]
    Same with the much repeated JNJ ...
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Follow The News? More Like Don't Overreact To The News [View article]
    You could probably tune out 99% of what's on SA ... cognitive dissonance
    Jun 15, 2015. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    And with this argument of "real time" portfolio returns vs. backtested amongst a small handful of investors here on this SA forum, try convincing the legions of investors being sucked into the Robo Advisory "efficient market hypothesis" portfolios and the academic evidence/backtesting that has backed it up ... For surely EMH MUST be the final determinant of how we invest as the "academicians" ( or interns for that matter) must have much more research expertise than we, the "non" academician! Why settle for a 10.5% - 12% CAGR total return over last 19 years in the average DG stock portfolio when one could get 8% CAGR total return with EMH !
    http://bit.ly/1i58hbl
    Jun 14, 2015. 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From The Grand Canyon [View article]
    It's prudent to diversify amongst a few investment strategies. Don't count exclusively on just one strategy or group of stocks as there will inevitably be one sector / stock universe that will be the poster child for "the current "crisis"" ( tech stocks, housing / mortgage stocks, the "GEs" and "banks") that will "surprise" to the downside. There are many excellent exchange traded funds representing many stock universes for use towards a diversification of strategies. The performance of the Nasdaq 100 / QQQ has been controversial since the 1998 - 2002 period, yet, since the 2003 bottom, it still produces alpha. If an investor is so inclined, the non discretionary method of picking the top 12 performing stocks from the Nasdaq 100 at year's end is an excellent method for diversifying a portfolio, and improving bottom line asset growth.
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market For 'Lemons': A Lesson For Dividend Investors [View article]
    J. Siegel's SP10 portfolio ( portfolio made up of the 10 highest yielding from the SP 500 index, recalculated annually ) has been shown, since 1956, to produce alpha premium vs. benchmark. It would be interesting to see the results screening further for ROA, DCA, NOA ....
    Jun 12, 2015. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Great Recession Taught Me About Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    "What I Have Learned About (Dividend Growth) Investing Since the Great Recession"
    1) Results gleaned from various portfolios and studies presented, are that if one has held a diversified portfolio of 30+ popular DG stocks, the total return CAGRs seem to have fallen somewhere between 10.5 - 12% over 20+ year periods since the 1980's. A beginning investor pursuing DG investing exclusively, should conduct due diligence and extrapolate the growth of their starting capital using these returns taking into consideration age, salary/employment, expenses, debt, etc. in order to get a realistic idea of a terminal asset value at the end of accumulation phase.
    2) Diversify amongst a few investment strategies. Don't count on just one strategy because there will inevitably be one sector / stock universe that will be the poster child for "the current "crisis"" ( tech stocks, housing / mortgage stocks, the "GEs" and "banks") that will "surprise" to the downside. There are many excellent exchange traded funds representing many stock universes for use towards a diversification of strategies.

    3) There has been the advent of excellent, promising, low expense Exchange Traded Funds that represent the dividend growth space ( SCHD, DON, VIG ) for use in a portfolio. As the average investor may or may not have the inclination, sophistication, mental fortitude to manage a portfolio of individual stocks, the use of etfs can alleviate these deficiencies ( and they can still persevere). If an investor becomes mentally incapable, it will be easier on the trustees to deal with one or two funds representing a strategy rather than a large number if individual securities.
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF Is Better Than Social Security [View article]
    The "Non Discretionary Chapter" in the study link below demonstrates that a simple switching strategy involving investing in the "value" universe from Nov - May and the Schwab Dividend Equity ETF SCHD ( VIG could be used ) from May - Nov has produced alpha above B&H.
    Another promising "non discretionary" method of producing income and alpha using this strategy, could be construction of a portfolio of the 10 highest yielding stocks in the SP 500 * ( calculated at the beginning of the year ) and investing in the portfolio from May - Nov. The average yields of these stocks have been much greater than and the performances similar to the most notable and favorite dividend growth stocks.

    http://bit.ly/1ItewIV

    * Jeremy Siegel SP10 portfolio Compound average annual returns 13.9% 1956 - 2014 ( May - Nov data only back to 2012 as monthly data from Wharton has been difficult to attain )
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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