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  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Freak This Week? [View article]
    On 8/24 between 9:30 and 10 Am, one could have picked up VIG for a decent discount. Yet, having the "focus intensity" in monitoring 40 -50 individual stock prices and using arbitrary entry points for purchase is mentally taxing for the average investor. Maybe if one was a jet fighter pilot or a pro tennis player ! If we utilized a methodolgy in which we had a couple of fixed dates during the year in which to make our trransactions, and in turn produce alpha, then we wouldn't have to "be on alert" and catch a 30 minute time ( an extreme example yes, but one to illustrate the point ) frame in which to make decisions. The use of VDIGX / VIG is shown in tables 9 & 10 here:
    Aug 29, 2015. 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    @tries .... It's good to have a little history here... In the 1980's, mutual funds were the "go to" place for investors to invest. Stock commissions were high ($25.00 and up was the norm maybe $19.00 at the margins; even higher in the 70's ) and investable assets were lower ( imagine if the average middle class person who had $25K in assets wanted to buy (or sell) a 50 stock portfolio at $25 a transaction ! $1250 ..). Easier to invest in funds / no brainer ...As as there were less mutual funds and stocks trading / available ( and no ETF's obviously ), it was "easier" to rank the good fund managers in fund companies ( Acorn, Fidelity, Strong, Wellington, dodge and Cox). The incentive for the investor was to buy well managed mutual funds and hold. The tax on dividends was high(er) so, with the combination of the secular bull market occurring, highish commissions, and a lack of incentive to "buy for dividend growth", mutual funds "capital appreciated ". There wasn't very much mention of "dividend growth" ( Barron's had a column written by Shirley Laslo that dealt with dividend related data and Geraldine Weiss published Investment Quality Trends newsletter pertaining to dividend stocks ).
    When stock broker commission deregulation kicked in in the very late 80's/early 90's ( commissions went lower ($12.00, gradually decreasing ), then individual stock picking and platforms tailored to newsletters centered around "growth stock" investing, such as Investor's Daily and "The Chartist" newsletter by Dan Sullivan ( among others ) became popular. The internet and day trading came along in the late 90's.
    The tax on dividends was lowered in 2003, hence the incentive and pick up in interest of DG.
    My father and relatives invested in the 80's mutual fund era. He invested in Fidelity Contrafund, Low Priced, and a few others along with a few individual stocks. He is of the "capital appreciation" / sell shares for expenses in the distribution phase era. He has amassed a relative fortune in those funds AND, since the capital appreciation has been "locked in" for so many years, it would be unreasonable to expect him, or someone of the same era / position who "bought and held" (and didn't sell until distribution phase then selling shares for income and recieving dividends from fund distributions ) to : 1) sell those positions 2) take on a "big" cap gain tax liability and 3) then buy up a large portfolio of individual stocks for dividend income. Just ain't gonna happen .... And there are many thousands? of investors from this era ....
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    It seems that it would be overwhelming for the age 50+ household with average investable assets of $120K to buy and manage the 54 stocks that Carnivale lists in the last 3 articles, on top of a prudent diversification and allocations towards other stock / bond universes possibly via etfs.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Hedged Like We Suggested... Now What? [View article]
    Earlier in my career ( in the late 80's and 90's), I was "shooting from the hip" using imprecise technical analysis and guesswork while using leveraged NYF futures and, later e-minis. The stress that was created and the advent of the internet and ease of data availability drove me towards more academic and robust research. Having constructed tactical models within this framework helps alleviate a "risk taking" mindset and removes the "uncertainty" ( and cognitive and emotional biases ) of what the market doing or where it is going and gives a procedural "roadmap" towards advance planning for upcoming allocation activity.
    For instance, we know (through contingent heuristics) that if: 1) the S&P500 remains below it's long length moving average through the end of the year and 2) the year end S&P 500 return is < 40 year CAGR (component 2,, then we will be in cash until sometime in 2016 at the earliest. Then: 3) a favorable risk profile reading must occur (component 3 ) in 3rd week of January and 4) a price oscillator setup and/or long length moving average penetration ( component 5) is necessary in order for allocation back into an equities ETF ... These steps all mathematically derived and easy to follow ...
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 10 Most Recession-Proof Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    S&P Cap IQ has a service that quantifys the safety of div paying stocks " S&P Capital IQ's Earnings & Dividend Quality Rank"
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Attractive Fast-Growing Dividend Growth Stocks For High Total Return [View article]
    Instead of diversifying across (68) individual stocks, one could diversify across methodologies and stock universes using:
    1) tactical allocation using Nasdaq 100 / QQQ ETF and Bond fund ($68K into $3.5M
    2) a 2 fund tactical process using the value and utility universes ( $68K into $1.8M )
    3) tactical allocation using small cap value (VBR) etf and Bond fund ( $68K into $2.4M
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    Acceptance of empirical "testing" can be difficult especially when an investor has to go through the "novice" period of investing which involves : 1) dopamine excitation induced by the "novelty" effect of investing and influence of "carnival like" financial information flow ( whether it be CNBC or the myriad of articles presented on SA) and 2) oxytocin production induced by the "admiration" for an "investment" ( individual companies recommended via herd effect influence ). The extrication process from these influences takes time, experience, and discipline.
    Aug 27, 2015. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Hedged Like We Suggested... Now What? [View article]
    Our QQQ / SPY tactical allocation model has been in cash since Jan 20th and cash for small cap value portfolio since May, these decisions being based on using non subjective model components (or variables) with 90 years of empirical evidence with statistically significant positive outcomes.

    Our work shows that a low risk short position requires alignment of : 1) weakness in economic conditions, 2) high risk profile year present 3) moving averages vs. price setup and validation 4) price oscillator setup and validation. This alignment is relatively rare ...
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stocks Stand Out If You Combine Smart Beta With Dividend Growth Investing? Here Are 15 Choices [View article]
    And the buy and hold of the 100 stock QQQ has produced some of the highest total return alpha without having to do much at all; over 3 sample periods and with super low expense ratio (even above a historical portfolio of popular highest return dividend growth candidates ... table 6 in appendix here : ) .
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Conservative Tactical Momentum Strategy Using Bond ETFs [View article]
    "A Conservative Tactical Momentum Strategy Using Bond ETFs" is compelling yet, for my needs, I feel that the QTS strategy provides decent "debt" instrument diversification through the use of the GNMA, US Bond, Emerging bond etfs, and cash, with outstanding overall returns. When combined with the Map model, I looked to improve the QTS strategy's performance during "cash" periods that the Map Model produced overriding some of the original QTS signals ( some under "change" designation here ).
    I plugged in returns from "Conservative Tactical Momentum Strategy Using Bond ETFs", and was able to produce alpha during these periods ( although I'm not a fan of making more than 2 or 3 transactions per strategy per year ! )

    Market Map info for reference :
    Aug 25, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Conservative Tactical Momentum Strategy Using Bond ETFs [View article]
    Good work Cliff, what's the latest selection ?
    Aug 24, 2015. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Heat Of This Correction Too Much? Get Out Of The Kitchen Or Start Nibbling Now [View article]
    As a typical DG investor is unruffled by volatility, one could buy and hold the QQQ ( an ETF of which many stocks represented in many recent DG articles is comprised ) with divs reinvested and garner higher compound annual total return than a typical portfolio of dividend growth favorites. It has achieved alpha premium during 3 separate samples over 25 years ( table 6 in Appendix here: ).

    An unambiguous entry for purchase could be had when key model components have established a low risk entry point
    Aug 24, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Evaluating Your Risk Tolerance Can Be Gut-Wrenching But Vital [View article]
    There is a large population and demographic in your situation .. Probably best to diversify amongst methodologies and stock universes. Many articles written about DG stocks don't take into consideration that an investor calculate a best case dividend growth portfolio return scenario of 10.5% - 11.5% over x years on their asset value and, combined with other retirement income sources ( social Security and pensions, etc) , extrapolate if a DG stock portfolio will provide a sustainable percentage of income on the aggregate. $30 - 40K annual income generated on $1 million of assets is much different than $6 - 8K on $200K of assets ( $200k being the "average" balance of couples in this demographic according to the literature). This seemingly simple extrapolation is something that most investors don't want to take on yet may be lured into a false sense of returns that dividend growth literature can portray. And a further step of exploring other processes towards steeper asset growth trajectory ( for example is even more daunting.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New System For Picking Stocks To Buy For DIY DGI Portfolios [View article]
    Aside from the many anecdotally derived articles, there also is / has been conflicting empirically derived research based on ( conducted by seemingly qualified and intelligent people ) on dividend growth, payout ratio levels, etc.
    I do know, from our empirical research, that one has been able to produce alpha above a buy and hold portfolio of individual dividend growth stocks by using a simple switching process between the value / utility universes and cash. This could generate a higher asset growth trajectory into retirement with an income stream comparable to a large individual stock portfolio.
    Aug 23, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When There Is Blood In The Streets, Will You Become A Vampire? [View article]
    I would rather predicate my portfolio management and tactical decisions on a mathematically extrapolated set of heuristics that have had repeated and persistant positive outcomes for almost a century, than to pin "hopes" that a dividend will stay in tact or that a company will continue to be a "moat" entity. Investing in these companies is fine for some, but I feel that using these companies exclusively to grow assets in the accumulation phase is an unproductive way of doing so and that one could do better than a 3 - 4% rate of income on their money in retirement. There are many ways to include a "growth" and "value" universe in one's portfolio as a way towards diversification and a boost in income.
    It was stated " would you you prefer to be invested in the current hot stocks like Tesla, Netflix or Amazon during uncertain times?". I might ... yet I would most likely invest in the PowerShares QQQ Trust QQQ which includes those stocks along with 97 others and maximize total return on at least part of the assets while using the mathematics and heuristics, rather than narrative and gut feeling, in determining equity exposure.

    Cash since Jan 19th
    Aug 22, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment