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  • This Is Why You Are Diversifying Wrong [View article]
    We live in unprecedented disinflationary times. When bond yields fall lower and lower, the multiplier in performance becomes larger. This will provide bigger bond returns than what U.S. investors have "normally" been used to in the past 2 decades. Investors in Japan first experienced it, and then the Euro zone.. In 2014, people were amazed when U.S. bond prices rose 30% ( yields measured by ^TYX fell from 3.9% to 2.75% ) as they had expected rates to rise over the last 2 - 3 years. Yet in a disinflation that involves the unwinding of debt coupled with age related demographic shifts and tech innovation and job outsourcing replacing job creation and creating wage deflation, no matter how hard the Fed tries ( and Euro central bank ), their hands are tied ... Just wait until U.S. yields ( ^TYX ) fall from 2.5% to sub 1.5% !
    Apr 3, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Way To Follow Your Favorite Seeking Alpha Authors [View article]
    Just take the $399 and contribute it to your child / young adult's Roth IRA and grow it for their future with small cap value : http://bit.ly/1CBSlge

    One of the best investments that you can make
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation's Best Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Emerson Electric [View article]
    Yes, I realize that ... just using the term "selling" as a universal characteristic of human nature that, much of the time, can trump common sense and due diligence.
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation's Best Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Emerson Electric [View article]
    As ETF investing is fairly recent, it is a little too abstract and distant for the average person to grasp . As humans exist to be "persuaded", you have to find a way to "sell" the ETF concept; the same way that mutual fund concept was "sold" in the prior century.
    There's an age old "familiarity" bias and built in "aura" around investing in individual "companies" and in the way that they are written about. Kind of like the way sports teams are viewed, with the wording of articles treating them as "nuggets"or "gems". And combining and loosely interchanging the concepts of double compounding, yield on cost, and (continuously) growing yields adds further irresistible selling points and imagery of "pot of gold at the end of the accumulation phase rainbow"; no matter how little your starting account size.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QTS Pick For 3/31/2015: TLT (Or VUSTX) [View instapost]
    I concur as, according to my model, since 1/20/2015 "equity based" selections are "high risk" for the rest of the year. Thanks for the update
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    If content that has gotten "editors choice" status is any indication of what content will be behind a paywall, then it seems that it won't delineate from "free" what content is making a difference (IMO) and is useful to average investors bottom lines or not ( or maybe it will be advantageous if the "editors choice" content becomes "pay content" so it can be "out of sight and out of mind" and reduce onslaught and pool of content in general. Combined with Stock Gumshoe http://bit.ly/13icG4i, one could spend "years" purusing and subscribing (and unsubscribing) to offerings and content. Also, CBS Marketwatch recently changed their design somewhat and stopped highlighting the histronics of "trading deck" contributors on the front page subtext and left them to their own tab, which has resulted in commenting numbers going from a fair amount to mainly 0 comments (which is just fine with me). So, in that example, we can see what a slight change to the way "free" content is presented does to comments / page view numbers ...
    Mar 29, 2015. 07:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective [View article]
    There are some that provide usable content that is derived from years of success and experience in their particular expertise or field of research and that don't necessarily need the monetary gateway. They provide it as a public service in furthering research and education. There are others that "appear" to be representing an entity or "firm". The trouble with the financial industry is that a monetary gateway, subscription, or a large management "fee" doesn't necessarily delineate between quality or snake oil ....
    Mar 27, 2015. 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equities: The Top May Now Be In [View article]
    Best to use timing variables with mechanical triggers, predefined transaction dates, and unrevisable, non subjectively determined trigger thresholds built into a comprehensive, no nonsense process.
    This was our objective in creating our model **.
    Here you can see the model's historical list of 30 predefined buy dates, 14 non predefined entry dates (mechanical and non subjectively defined), and 38 predefined sell dates back to 1924: http://bit.ly/1E81uyz
    And 9 decades of performance premium ( green slides 18, 22, 25, 28, 33, 37, 41, 44, & 48 ): http://bit.ly/1wIt3fe
    With this information, we can be confident as to when to take action and never have to "interpret" when to sell or buy.
    Most recent sell on Jan 20 2015 http://bit.ly/1BwEzH5

    ** this after years of relying on failure prone, spurious information; put call ratios, VIX readings, margin interest, arms index, AD lines, trendline breaks, etc.; data in which the subjective interpretation and readings for sell and buy thresholds kept changing and are/were becoming more extreme - with 2008 being most recent in "pushing the envelope"- hence the general investment public's skepticism with market timing and it's declining credibility and dubious nature.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In High Dividend Yield Stocks: A Sucker Bet? [View article]
    He is one of the smarter minds in the financial blogoshpere. The TEV/EBITDA – Enterprise Multiple metric is purported to be a higher alpha generating metric over the long term than even small cap value. We have yet to see as QVAL will need more performance history, through a cycle or two more to prove itself. There is another ETF ( iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor (QUAL) ) that looks compelling.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF: Higher Returns And Less Risk [View article]
    The inception to date performances of DON and SCHD vs. VIG look to be the most promising and they hold many of the same / popular quality DG stocks. The miniscule gross expense ratio of SCHD removes "that" factor as a performance drag and argument against singular ETF ownership ( vs. a large individual stock portfolio ). A additional "step" that could be taken would be, on the ex- dividend date, to use "fresh" capital towards buying "extra" shares * of SCHD when the price was down near the close. This could add a performance improvement and incremental compounding affect by taking advantage of: 1) buying on price weakness / discount and 2) getting more "value" premium in company ownership through the share price reduction reflected via the cash distributed from the retained earnings part of the company's ledger. As it appears that SCHD makes 4 distributions per year ( as does VIG ), this step could be easy for a novice investor ( or their advisor ) to monitor and implement.

    * this in addition to the "reinvestment" of the dividend.
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Bond Bears (Especially In Japan) Lost So Much Money Since 2000 [View article]
    Sounds like one of those forced decisions as a consequence of being constricted by "bonds only" portfolio management structure. Instead of trying to guess the direction of bond yields and thereby make tactical asset decisions while possibly being controlled by behavioral biases, one could expand into the equity side and run a simple 10 month simple moving ( monthly basis ) average applied to the underlying appropriate equity index and bond index and allocate into each with a rules based approach ( and no leverage for goodness sakes ! ). For all that has been said about how horrific the investment returns were for the Japan experience from 1988 - 2012 and now, applying that to the European experience 2009 - ?, this simple mathematical methodolgy could have improved returns substantially without having to catch "falling knives" or use short positions. Sometimes, with all of the computing power and management jockeying, the simplest solutions are the hardest to accept.
    http://bit.ly/1DUGcnM
    http://bit.ly/1CryaTi
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Have Bottomed [View article]
    Instead of trying to figure out what the "behaviors" and "expectations" of governments, investors, and institutions are in a process towards divining the direction of rates and tactical asset decisions, one could use a simple 10 month simple moving ( monthly basis ) average applied to the underlying appropriate equity index and bond index and allocate into each with a rules based approach . For all that has been said about how horrific the investment returns were for the Japan experience from 1988 - 2012 and now, applying that to the European experience 2009 - ?, this simple mathematical methodolgy could have improved returns substantially without having to "interpret" the tea leaves any kind of political, fiscal, monetary, sentiment based information in an attempt to catch "falling knives". Sometimes the simplest solutions are the hardest to accept.
    http://bit.ly/1DUGcnM
    http://bit.ly/1CryaTi
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Sentiment Dominating [View article]
    Our risk indicator showed 2015 as a "High market risk" profile year. http://seekingalpha.co...

    In many cases, the economic conditions index needs to decline http://bit.ly/1BKaapn and/or the yield curve flatten / invert in order to confirm deep equity declines http://bit.ly/1DKXl0i



    Mar 23, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Latest Stock Bubble To Go Pop! [View article]
    Charlatan
    Mar 22, 2015. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation's Best Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Emerson Electric [View article]
    Yes that's true. The momentary reduction in value / price drop comes from the cash disbursement from the retained earnings side of the company's accounting ledger. Money for the dividend isn't manufactured out of thin air (unless a company "cooks the books" like Tyco or Enron).
    Mar 22, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
445 Comments
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