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  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    I agree that the moves so far are nominal, but I still think they are very much supportive (and accurate) of my thesis. There is still much in confirmation however that I would like to see prior to getting too excited, things could indeed change quickly.

    Regarding your comments on gold, it and precious metals held long term uptrend lines, and have nicely bounced. Gold may still be 25% off its highs, but it is also 20% off the lows. If the long term up trends are broken, I agree the recent lows can be tested and even lower prices can be seen. But, so far commodities remain bullish, bonds bearish, and equities at the least are less bullish.

    All the intramarket relationships are saying the same story. I discussed this again today at http://bit.ly/12J10ei The CRB is starting to look quite bullish among other charts
    Aug 27 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Looks like the thesis of the article is playing out. I would be interested to hear if you have any new thoughts
    Aug 27 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    To be honest, I just glanced over your comments and saw a few "long Apple" postings, but I didn't take the time to thoroughly read them. I apologize if I misstated your position.

    You have been unequivocally bullish on equities and I bearish, and with prices near all time highs, your are certainly more correct in your outlook to date. I'm curious, if you don't mind sharing, what your main reason(s) for being bullish are?

    I told myself some time ago I would force myself to write a bullish article in attempt to find evidence that counters my opinion rather than supports it. I have not yet done that, but perhaps that would be a wise idea for my next article. If you don't mind sharing your insight I'd be eager to hear your reasoning.

    Thanks, and sorry for the previous misunderstanding
    Jul 28 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Fair enough, I will admit to sometimes focusing too much on real returns than nominal

    However, while I am not sure if there is necessarily a negative "10 year" nominal return in the 70's, there are certainly negative 5-10 year periods from the 60-70s.

    It was not the intention to make the point that equity markets are inversely related to inflation, but that commodities would likely outperform equities in the future due the evidence that suggests inflation may be higher than expected.
    Jul 28 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Pompano, many of the mentioned factors have indeed been backtested and proved favorable results. But a favorable result could indicate a mere 60% possibility; nothing is ever 100% when predicting future market direction.

    Stocks have had a slight negative return over cash May-October for the last century and a half. In my opinion that is statistically significant and worthy of consideration at the very least.

    Congratulations on being long since 2009 and all the best in the future.
    Jul 28 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    So this isn't your comment?

    "Translation - BUY BUY BUY, initiated position last Fri at the close - $508 , dipped below $505 this AM after more analysts piled on with negatives. $505 was targeted as short term support BUTonce it fell below stock did not fall apart as most predicted, instead rallied sharply to today's close $519 ,

    Christmas just came a little early. Intraday reversal -The selling climax has occurred.

    Enjoy the ride !" - 17 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM"

    Link: http://bit.ly/18LyxsY

    In my article I didn't mention any of what you said, but here's the link to clarify: http://seekingalpha.co...

    I don't intend to further argue with you. I think we can both agree that we have made many mistakes and will likely make many more.

    I do agree that if gold and/or precious metals continue down your outlook will most likely be correct and mine wrong. I will maintain my view until that time. All the best
    Jul 28 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Sure, if you frame the argument from the bottom in the 1970s you can produce positive returns. If I bought the Nasdaq in 2009 and held today I would be up quite a bit, but I would still be down since 2000, particularly in real terms
    Jul 28 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Feer&Greedtrader

    I don’t recall admitting my earlier thesis to be wrong, but rather the way that I managed the position to be quite poor. I still think my analysis to be sound, and I managed to turn a profit on the trade, despite managing my risk quite poorly. I suggested that there is more downside risk in equities than upside potential, and upon completing this article, that again is my outlook. I did not expect prices to get this high, and for that reason I have avoided taking further positions on the broader market since. I remain conflicted by strong price action despite what I believe to be weak fundamentals.

    I am prone to imperfect timing, just as you have been in being long Apple since last year. But I have been in cash since closing my position in June, and I have attempted to revisit my outlook without a clouded judgement. I am not sure how my thesis can be considered “scratches, grasps, claws & searched for evidence to support a case that simply isn’t there”. I did not make the data up, and I believe I have outlined a sound argument. It may be proven wrong, and I have outline several scenarios in which it may, but surely there must be some form of a bearish case otherwise we would not be having this discussion.

    I agree the recent selling in gold questions my thesis, and further selling certainly would support your case. But as I mentioned gold and other commodities remain in very distinctive uptrends, and to suggest that gold has entered a secular bear market at this juncture is incorrect in my opinion.
    Jul 28 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Unexpected inflation and both nominal and real negative returns in equities
    Jul 27 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Thanks you WDL

    I am not too familiar with the fundamentals of coke, but I am not sure inflation would be the biggest driver of its stock price?
    Jul 27 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    Salmo, thank you very much for your thoughtful replies. My knowledge in this specific area is not nearly as thorough as yours. I am very much interested however and will see if I can give it some more thought prior to replying

    Many thanks
    Jul 27 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    I'm curious, did you read the article, or just see the title and jump straight to criticism in defending your position?

    I'm assuming the later. Would you mind suggesting which measure of prices is currently trending down, the CPI, PPI, or PCE?

    Silver and gold, two of the most highly speculated investments of recent years, yes have collapsed lately. I acknowledged that. However, what is the long term trend? Distinctively "up" as displayed in the first chart.

    The Fed's need to monetize is to combat deflation; we are saying the same thing. However while deflation is the "threat", inflation is the current reality. This is a distinction that many fail to realize (I too was guilty of this).

    The interesting thing is that everyone one of my charts is based off of real numbers and are indeed "material facts" and "reality"

    Best of luck "buddy"
    Jul 27 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    I think its part because everyone has been fixated (as I have) on the decline in commodities prices over the last year or two and failed to miss the bigger picture.
    Jul 27 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    All great arguments; I don't have much to counter with. I would suggest however that commodities, despite recent weakness, are still trending up since 2000. So, as mentioned in comments above, stagflation may be more accurate as I agree the economic environment is weak, but there is still price inflation

    Further, both inflation and stagflation can be the result of excessive growth of the money supply taken to such an extreme that it must be reversed abruptly. This is very much in line with the current economic environment
    Jul 27 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Inflation, Rising Rates, Commodity Strength And Equity Weakness [View article]
    In all my readings of successful traders and fund managers, a common suggestion is that you should never underestimate the power of the Fed
    Jul 27 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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