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  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    To conclude that a +40% slide in the stock is due specifically to the S3 and Note 2, or even Samsung the company, is pretty far-fetched in my opinion.

    As well, while some fund managers may be vocal about positions in order to sway sentiment, your comment that "to make money, the big boys makre sure that the stock is in an over-bought or oversold situation, using numerous writers to enhance their strategies" is also quite far-fetched. The peak numbers of hedge funds who were long Apple also coincided with the peak in the stock price.

    Further, over-bought and over-sold are very subjective descriptions. A stock can be short term overbought but long term oversold and vice verca.

    Finally, your comment implies that an institution can effectively manipulate the stock price. While that may be true over very short time periods, in a company as large as Apple, it certainly is not true in the long term
    Jun 25 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    To be honest the article was a little scattered and could have been articulated better, but happy to hear you found value in it.

    Sounds like you're in a tough position. Its important to try and not think about what price you purchased the stock at as that has no bearing on its future direction. At this point I would suggest putting a stop in to protect against future losses.

    I would also suggest that hoping Cook has truly new innovative products is not the best approach, and that there may be better places to be put your money. He may well have a product that could be a catalyst, but that seems more like a gamble given the price action.

    Perhaps a hard dollar stop that protects against future losses, as well as time stop that you can measure objectively. Rather than looking for "the situation to improve", set your self a target, such as if the stock isn't above $465 by Q1 Jan 2014 you move on.
    Jun 25 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I think its a mistake to think that understanding the customer can help understand Apple's future prospects. I don't think the company is going away anytime soon, and the company truly is great, but I am looking at things that move the stock.

    Again I am not an expert, but I would suggest that you are extrapolating your familiarity and fondness of the company to the stock. A great company and a great stock can be very different. It's the same mistake that many make when they work for a company and receive stock in their company. People perceive their company to be good, and accordingly expect the stock to be good too, which unfortunately isn't necessarily the case
    Jun 25 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Seeking Alpha is fundamentally based so they don't typically allow thorough technical analysis. The bottom line is that the trend is down. This comes at a time when the stock market, despite the recent pullback, has been strong. Apple is declining in both absolute and relative terms; there is nothing bullish about that. Until some sort of base is formed I think the stock will trade sideways at best.

    At this point I would say Apple needs to close above $465 to be considered for a long term investment.
    Jun 25 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    A dividend and a buyback can often be an indication that they have nothing more productive to do with the cash; this is very bearish.

    If they had a lineup of projects that could potentially generate new revenues than they would be pursuing those projects with its cash. The dividend is a large confirmation that Apple is now a value stock rather than a growth stock
    Jun 25 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Yet Amazon is outperforming Apple in 2013 for a large margin. Does everyone just have it wrong?

    Perhaps, but what a company "should" be priced at and where it is likely to go can be two different things. As long as the consensus has lost faith in Apple's growth it will struggle in my opinion
    Jun 25 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I am not trying to "tell the whole story", I am simply sharing the parts that I think matter at this point.
    Jun 25 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Well, to put things bluntly, you're wrong

    Y-charts is just a data aggregator. I posted quarterly profit margins whereas you posted annuals so thus they are different. And whether they're displayed in a line chart, a histogram, an excel sheet, whatever..., its doesn't matter. Margins were increasing, and now they are not. So I am indeed not making anything up

    When companies have very large margins competition inevitably arises; this is basic economic theory. No company can earn abnormal profits over extended periods of time. If a company is innovative it can generate abnormal profits in the shorter term, as Apple has been very successful at doing. It is quite remarkable how long it was able to be innovative and grow.

    But ultimately for any mega cap margin expansion becomes more difficult at a certain stage with increased competition and fewer growth opportunities. Whereas two years ago the iphone was the defacto smart phone that people lined up for, Samsung is now the leader. In a year it could be a new cheaper phone from China, and then same thing can and likely will happen to all of their products.

    Just look at the history of past tech giants; they can outperform for a certain period of time but ultimately competition arises and growth rates drop
    Jun 25 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Investors don't care about today, they want growth in the future. Growth rates are slowing
    Jun 25 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    And..?
    Jun 25 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I would suggest that it is very likely for growth rates to continue to decline and potentially even go negative if for nothing else than due to the size of the company
    Jun 25 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Glad you enjoyed
    Jun 25 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Well my data is straight form Y-charts, I believe its pretty clear

    And its not exactly easy to maintain high margins. The company has grown over time; in earlier years when it was a smaller company its easier to attain higher margins. That appears to no longer be the case, as it was often happens with mega-caps
    Jun 25 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    When/what was there last new product? They aren't exactly leading in innovation lately.

    Apple is a massive company. To regain the growth they had before would require the development of a new product that could be sold to the masses. So far there seems to be nothing in the pipeline that could do this
    Jun 25 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    You're right, its nothing new. But it has been a core argument for many Apple bulls for some time so I don't think there's any harm in shedding some light on this
    Jun 25 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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