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  • Update To Short (Bearish) Outlook [View article]
    Yes for sure. Whether its China, Europe, the US, or else where, most will agree markets are artificially inflated and could collapse on any more weak data. The counterpoint is that this will encourage more QE. Ultimately QE is unsustainable however, and there doesn't seem to be any plausible exit strategy to date.
    May 8 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To Short (Bearish) Outlook [View article]
    This time could definitely be different, that is always the case. And obviously buying puts before a 20% move up, and then a correction, would be far from ideal.

    Time will tell. In any case, I don't think it is the worse decision
    May 8 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To Short (Bearish) Outlook [View article]
    Yes you could say the last ten years was a consolidation. But on a shorter term basis, I would suggest that were have tentatively broken through on extended prices.
    May 8 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To Short (Bearish) Outlook [View article]
    Typically for a breakout of a range to hold there is a consolidation prior. When price is stretched prior to a breakout however, the chance of failure is much higher.

    In comparison to past secular bear markets, stocks are still more expensive.

    Yes, the alternatives are not good, this is undoubtedly part of the underlying reason for continued strength
    May 8 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update To Short (Bearish) Outlook [View article]
    Thank you both
    May 8 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Interesting. Why do you see the DJIA outperforming $SPX by so much?
    Apr 29 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    This is always a consideration. My thought to counter this is that perhaps its better to be the first one leaving the party rather than the last? The same arguement was made in the late 90s. Sure, leaving the party too early then may have left one out of the gains of the last years, but ultimately most of those gains were wiped out in one harsh selloff. Again in the last decade, 5+ years of gains for many were wiped out in less than one year
    Apr 29 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Taxes on capital gains are definitely a concern for one with a low cost basis, I completely agree with you on this point

    Much of my analysis however is based upon history, cycles, and sentiment. Notably many of the authors I have read, many of which predicted previous market tops, have noted the very high likeliness of one final sell off prior to a secular bull market returning. While I am expecting a typical correction at this point, I also believe a larger selloff to be expected at some point. Such a selloff could be devastating to many investors.

    Poortorich, I dont expect you to accept my analysis, but perhaps I could recommend that you read Robert Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance". Its a great read even if you dont agree with me, and I would be eager to hear your thoughts on it
    Apr 29 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
    I just read the rest of the comments. Looks like I was not the only one scratching my head

    Jonathan, perhaps you can elaborate on your opinion that we are in a secular bull?
    Apr 28 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
    Curious how you can define the current market as a secular bull? We are far off inflation adjusted highs in the S&P 500, and even further from both inflation adjusted and nominal highs in the Nasdaq..

    Curious what you think about the most recent Barrons magazine illustrating that money managers are the most bullish they have been in the 20 years since they began recording?
    Apr 28 11:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    A thought; I haven't had time to really think about your comment, a few of the ratio charts I presented show that lower risk bonds have been outperforming higher risk bonds. I dont know if that is relevant, I will admit I have had a long day and am getting a little brain dead at this point!

    Another thought; just about every talks about the great rotation out of bonds into stocks, about the bond bubble popping. So far there has been no evidence of this. Unfortunately rates can still go lower and accordingly bonds higher.

    Anyways, not sure if either of those comments help; will revisit soon!
    Apr 28 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Thank you Jordan

    Yes some people have gone so far as to suggest I am a fear monger etc... when most of what I have done is put things in a historical context.

    I don't expect everyone to accept my analysis, but I believe they should consider it, just as I try to consider another's

    Unfortunately due to the strength of the rally since 2009 there is an inherent tendency to understimate the risks and overestimate one's abilities as many long investors have done quite well over recent years.

    If I have indeed given these unrelentless bulls a little bit of fear or caution, I dont think it is a bad thing.

    All the best
    Apr 28 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    From what I had analyzed it has had diminishing returns, however it has been some time I have looked at it thoroughly. In any case, there have been corrections since past announcements
    Apr 28 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Each announcement of further QE has produced diminishing returns, has it not?
    Apr 28 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Day trading is not a viable strategy for most SA readers, nor is it a viable strategy for many of the most experienced analysts and traders. Few people are successful at it, and it requires great discipline and experience.

    I am short by owning long puts options
    Apr 28 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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