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  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Taxes are an important part of any investment strategy. I should have noted that in my work

    I am glad you found value in my work.

    Thanks
    Apr 28 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Yes there may be larger opportunities in individual names. I am short some individual names as well, however the reasoning is all technically derived and I accordingly can not write article on here about them. As well, my individual equity positions change quite frequently
    Apr 28 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    I typically use ATM puts; if my outlook is correct my delta increases and my positions grows larger and more profitable, however when incorrect the inverse occurs

    I have refrained from spreads as I dont want to limit my profit in the case of an even bigger correction. Perhaps there are better ways for me to use options; but this method has served me fine to date. Upon completion of my CMT and CFA exams I intend on studying options quite a bit more thoroughly however as I have much to learn
    Apr 28 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    1) I do not believe I am being modest. I believe in 5-10 years I will be a much better analyst and trader. Accordingly, there are many people out there with such experience who could more likely be considered experts

    2) Yes, this index is widely followed and incorporated into many analysts's outlooks

    3) There are a multiude of potential reasons: profit taking, problems in China finally gaining the attention it deserves, the realisation the the majority of companies have guided down and that earnings have not in fact been great, seasonality, soveriegn debt issues re-emergings, further global economic deterioration, etc...

    I do acknolwedge that a new QE or stimulus plan of a magnitude not experienced to date could render all the above moot, but in the end that is a recipe for disaster.
    Apr 28 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    One thing I thought I would like to share:

    "Last week, Barron's Big Money Poll had the most bulls in its 20-year existence. Currently, 74% of those polled were bullish over the next six to 12 months. This figure was just 46% six months ago. Of course, over the past six months, the SPX has added more than 10% and moved to new all-time highs, so the logical question is: If this group was bearish and very wrong back in October, what does it mean now?" Source: http://bit.ly/13E7PMo

    I should note that Barrons and other magazines have a well tracked history of noting extreme levels of investor enthousiasm at market tops. This in some ways conflicts with the "irrational pessimism" arguement I put forth. However it could be possible that money managers can be irrationaly exuberant while retail investors are pessimistic. I believe this would be in line with past secular bear markets.

    In any case, I believe it to be more bearish than bullish
    Apr 28 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Answers:

    1) I have been in the markets since 2008. 5 years does not make me an expert

    2) I dont know

    3) I don't know the exact dates, nor do I know the exact reasons. Anyone who claims to is overstepping their abilities. When anyone makes a decision, be it to buy, hold, or sell, they are making an "educated crap shoot".

    I intend to provide perspective, that is all.

    All the best
    Apr 28 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    I have bought put options on various US market ETFs. That is one of many ways, but the one I believe currently offers the best risk to reward.

    You can Google "put options" or "long put options"

    If however you do not understand or are familiar with these, it likely is not a wise idea for you, and I would recommend seeking further financial advise.

    All the best
    Apr 28 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Thank you Avg Jo

    My timing will likely prove to be correct of incorrect in the next week or two. So far so good, but things can always change.

    Just about every author I have studied who has studied history and historical price patterns suggest that the secular bear market is not over. This does not mean one should expect a major correction right away, but indeed I believe one to be on the horizon. At this point it is too early to predict when. In any case, I am more comfortable holding puts than long equity positions for the most part. If I do however get a 5-20% correction I will likely close them and then reconsider. Major tops typically take time to develop, and one could expect some sort of recovery after a correction prior to any dramatic sell off
    Apr 28 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Leopardtrader

    It says very clearly that I am a "swing trader" on StockTwits, not a "day trader". For the record, however, I will take trades over a variety of time frames.

    Also, as mentioned, I am writing my CMT level 3 exam next week, and CFA level 3 exam next month; both of which require some 200-300 hours of studying each. Education is just as important as experience in my opinion, pardon me for trying to develop a better perspective.

    You mocked me, and I simply restated comments I have made before. That is all

    All the best to you,

    Brennan
    Apr 25 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    That's funny; it must be some sort of mystical dart that I have found given that I shorted two weeks ago, and covered the majority one week ago; all of which I disclosed and posted in real time on StockTwits and on here

    I don't intend to suggest my timing will be this good in the future, nor that it will be necessarily correct. But seriously, if you don't have anything intelligent or valuable to say, why waste people's time?
    Apr 25 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    To anyone still interested, I have re-established the majority of my short position over the last two days. I have bought puts on most of the US indices, a few individual stocks, the Aussie dollar, as well as WTI oil. At this point I don’t expect S&P 500 1600, but can’t rule it out, and will add more there. I have a tentative stop with a weekly close above 1630, but may reduce exposure if 1600 holds for over a week.

    Whether we get a minor correction or some sort of top, I still believe there to be more downside than upside potential, hence my position. I will be glued to my books over the next month or so

    All the best

    Brennan Basnicki
    Apr 24 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    The SPY is more of a mean reversion play. Plus I typically trade single stocks on top.

    I'm shorting through puts, most of which expire September. So time is on my side in my opinion. You're correct in the inherent difficulties in shorting a top. I just feel that its one of those times where "all the planets align"; global macro bad, momentum dying, cycles are bearish, breadth not great, bond relationships are bearish, risk off, no signs of inflation, etc...

    While many of these signs have been present before, this is the first time I believe so many bearish signs have been presented at once
    Apr 23 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Thank you Bartpr

    Keep in mind that technical analysis takes some time to learn and understand. You'll find many people discrediting them, but those are typically ones who haven't had enough time to fully understand the concepts.

    It's kind of like knowing that a low P/E means a stock is cheap, and potentially a buy. Unfortunately there are a lot more pieces to the puzzle!

    The CMT program is quite thorough, perhaps check out some of the books from their reading list. Can't say I have ever met someone who has studied technicals thoroughly who doesn't use them / see the value in them
    Apr 23 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Hmm thought I replied to this, perhaps not.

    Yes, I saw the margin debt percentages, definitely does not support the bull case, let alone last weeks Barron's magazine!
    Apr 23 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    It has been proven time and time again that price is not indeed random, a key element in the link you presented. Randomness fails to explain bubbles, momentum, support and resistance, etc...
    Apr 23 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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