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Market Scholar

 
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  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Tack,

    I don't know who the other "folks" are, nor is my opinion swayed by them. As it stands, the price action to date is reflective of a correction in my opinion. I took most of my short off last week, and added again today. Corrections simply do not go straight down, at least not at the beginning. If we get another push to 1600, I will likely purchase more puts. After that, I will not expose myself to anymore risk and will monitor my position

    Regarding liquidity, its not something I monitor. Perhaps I should, and in due time I hope to. I know margin debt hit reached highs not experienced since 2007. I do not consider that bullish.

    Bonds are also gaining strength. Everyone is predicting this great rotation out of bonds, but it has yet to happen. If/when this happens, it will likely negate my short thesis.
    Apr 23 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I find it very difficult to refer to such things as record debt, high unemployment, deflation, slowing world economy, QE supported US equity rally etc.... as "noise".

    Your point about gold is a good one, a decline in value in hard assets typically occurs with appreciation in paper assets. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

    Simple approaches, buy and hold etc... have largely failed equity investors over the last decade however

    Anyways, been a pleasure debating, but most focus on other things now. All the best
    Apr 23 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    And how does one monitor supply and demand......?

    What does a chart reflect?
    Apr 23 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    I don't remember making the point that they will go straight down....? Pretty sure I actually said we could see higher prices, perhaps even new highs, first
    Apr 23 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I agree, I think it is pretty difficult to argue that we are in any sort of secular bull market given the points I mentioned above

    Fear&Greedtrader, still hoping you can provide your argument for the secular bull!
    Apr 22 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Definitely a possibility, could go that way for a while prior to a major correction, if one is to occur

    However, given that past secular bears suggest another major correction is indeed in the cards, I am comfortable buying puts
    Apr 22 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Looks like I am behind on my homework, thank you for pointing these out! I am familiar with both of the mentioned sentiment indicators, but to be honest, have not looked at them in some time. Care to provide any links?
    Apr 22 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Thank you Maverick
    Apr 22 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    For sure, and yes indicative of a market of stocks, rather than a stock market

    But fuel for a bull argument for the economy and/or the market?

    A stretch in my opinion, but, that's what makes a market!
    Apr 22 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I think we are in due for at least a minor correction, and given that we are in a secular bear, it could turn into a larger correction.

    No comment on the fact that Nasdaq still well off its highs, and S&P 500 off inflation adjusted highs? Lower highs and lower lows suggests a secular bear market, no?
    Apr 22 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    Not an area I am familiar enough to give a good answer
    Apr 22 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    For sure, but I believe there four I mentioned are much more cited as being reflective of the economy, and as bellwether stocks. Am in incorrect?
    Apr 22 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I don't understand how we can be in a secular bull market when the S&P 500 is well off of inflation adjusted highs, not to mention the Nasdaq? Past secular bears have had a minimum of 4 recessions; the current one has had 2?

    Thoughts?

    Maybe you meant stage 2 of a cyclical bull market?
    Apr 22 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I have no idea what you are trying to say here.. Perhaps you can elaborate?
    Apr 22 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Pessimism? [View article]
    I would also add that IBM, GE, FCX, and CAT, four stocks often looked upon as bellwethers for the market and economy, have all had relatively disappointing earnings and performance recently
    Apr 22 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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