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Market Scholar

 
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  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    If I am betting during a horse race I want to bet on the horse that's winning the race not the one that's losing the race. The payoff may be bigger if the losing horse miraculously makes a comeback, but I'd rather put my money on the winning horse or at least the leading horses as they have the highest probability of winning.

    So yes, I do get more interested as it gets more expensive, and less interested as it gets less expensive. Things get more expensive for a reason, and the sooner you realize that the better off you will be.

    Go ahead and buy Minervini's book, it'll provide you with some perspective that actually helps you improve your trading and investing as opposed to overused "buy low sell high" cliches
    Jul 3 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Because its now less than $300 off its high?

    Its an oversold bounce, a great trade for many, but means nothing long term. A move above $460 and I would start to get interested longer term
    Jul 3 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Completely lost on what you're trying to say here...?
    Jul 1 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    "AAPL usually climbs out of doldrums without waiting for media or analysts, so don't miss the train" - there was a time when this was true

    I imagine I sound uber bearish on Apple at this point which is not the case. But for a long term investment I am certainly not bullish and I think there are much better places to put ones money.

    Happy Canada Day
    Jul 1 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I said I would look to short. The move down until last week was extended, and as I mentioned, "For a shorter term trade this may well be a great spot to long, but that is strictly off of the chart".

    A flag or consolidation would allow a potential short term short trade with a low risk stop loss. But until such a pattern is formed, no such tight stop exists, and I would hold off from shorting.

    Just as "there are a lot of very smart people working for it" in Apple, there were very smart people working for DELL and MSFT...

    How are you quantifying the interest on the buy side? Has there been an increase in institutions or mutual fund buying of the stock?
    Jul 1 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    A consolidation at 385 / flag could definitely be a potential short. Will/would I take it? That depends, to short tomorrow for example would be too high in risk for me as it is already had a nice move down recently. But a consolidation, or bounce that lacks volume etc... may be an attractive short

    You say you'll let the charts tell you, but there's nothing in new 52 week lows that tells someone to be long on a long term time frame
    Jun 30 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Please enlighten me, why exactly is that?
    Jun 29 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    For a shorter term trade this may well be a great spot to long, but that is strictly off of the chart. If 385 does fail however I would not be long and look to short.

    However the issue of relative underperformance is important. If the market turns back down, which I believe it will, is one to expect Apple to outperform and hold this level? My thoughts at this point are no. If the market can rally however then I would say an oversold bounce is likely
    Jun 29 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I would just suggest that the "negative pumping" is simply of result of a bleak outlook. Its not a scheme or a happy accident; it's people who have seen this story before such as myself and are commenting. Of course, there will always be some junk, particularly more so with Apple due to its following, but I believe there are many reasons not to be bullish.

    Further, regarding the value investing / buy and hold strategy, I don't mean to talk down of it, however while it has been successful for a century, it has not been so over the last 13 years. US indices are still below inflation adjusted 2000 highs and until the secular bear market ends I believe buy and hold to be an inferior strategy. I think in the next 5-10 years it may re-emerge but until then it is not one I believe in.

    Finally, people often believe by buying value they will be better protected from market declines. One more thought by Minervini: "In 2008, the overall market suffered heavy losses, with the Value Line Index finishing the year down 48.7 percent. The Dow was down 34% for the year. However, the worse performing Value Line categories were low price to sales, down 66.9%; low price to book value, down 68.8%; and low P/E ratio, down 70.9%. The bottom line: value investing does not protect you"
    Jun 28 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Sorry, you are correct. My comment that a dividend and buyback can be bearish does not likely apply to Apple given the massive amount of cash.

    It certainly can be bearish for other companies, but I was probably wrong to suggest that it may be considered bearish for Apple. In any case, I don't think it is bullish.

    There also haven't been many major acquisitions lately which potentially could be a better long term use for its cash
    Jun 27 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I never stated that its low PE by itself is a signal or that any stock that shows a new low PE will proceed to an extended decline, I said its not a reason to necessarily be bullish as many believe

    Accordingly, I dont think your fallacy applies, but it sure does sound nice..

    As well, I would suggest your comment that " Shorts are being set up with a classic pump and dump. The big guys are getting an incredible amplification of their efforts due to the appeal of the wonderful games of "ain't it awful and "that's nothin' " and the love of tearing down anyone successful" is just a way of justifying a weak position. If it's such a classic, obvious phenomenon, than surely you and most are short? There is nothing restricting anyone from partaking in the "pump and dump" if it indeed were true
    Jun 27 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Well all that I can say is that return is the only thing that ultimately matters, not value. Value is naturally subjective and one can measure value in a number of ways. But return is ultimately what most investors want. While I understand the need for income, most modern investing and portfolio management suggest analyzing an investment in terms of total return rather than income/yield.

    Perhaps there's a very bullish fundamental reason to own Apple; I'll leave that up to the wall street analysts. But Apple continues to decline on both an absolute and relative basis. Relative strength and momentum are one of the few market anomalies accepted by both technical and fundamental analysts, and Apple continues to be a large underperformer.

    I guess the question is, if its such a great longer term value play, why do all the institutions, funds, etc continue to dump it?

    As institutional ownership peaked when the stock also peaked, perhaps the best idea is to wait for some sort of bottom or increase in institutional ownership prior to getting long. Ultimately institutions move big stocks, and until Applet gets support from them, it could very easily continue to decline. The nominal dividend will do little to offset futures stock declines as those who have been holdings Apple since 2012 can attest to
    Jun 27 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I agree with you. This works in the short term, and this is how companies grow and generate abnormal profits for a finitie period. However when other companies see these high margins and profits they enter that market and ultimately drive down margins. Unless a company can gain a monopoly position the high margins are ultimately reduced. Further, there is a limit to the economies of scale that a company can achieve through expansion
    Jun 27 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    "The funny thing is, the longer the stock price stays depressed now, the more value this generates for long-term shareholder as the company is able to take more shares off the market through their massive buckback program (the largest history) than they would if the price was higher"

    As a stockholder I would find much more value in a stock that appreciated rather than one that stays depressed
    Jun 27 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Simply providing perspective, nothing sarcastic.

    I feel strongly that Apple is far from the best long candidate right now, and that's the point. There's sufficient evidence for my stance, and I have encountered the most well articulated and thorough analysis all the while the stock continues to move down. I am simply trying to illustrate what matters.

    There are many better shorts candidates at the current juncture; why force myself to have a position in Apple? It is a massive mistake to think you must always have a position in Apple or any stock. Often the best position is no position
    Jun 27 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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