Seeking Alpha

Market Scholar

 
View Market Scholar's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Glad you liked it. I am not suggesting the P/E is useless, but simply that a low P/E isn't necessarily bullish and often it can be bearish. Many people's bullish arguments are based off of its low PE without thorough consideration of what it actually can imply about the future
    Jun 26 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    "Firstly,of course it is easier for a large company like Apple to maintain high gross and high net margins than a small company-that is standard." Really? That seems to defy most economic theory
    Jun 26 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Not much of a "vision" when the stock's down almost 40% from highs when the rest of the market is up. More like a harsh reality that you should begin to consider
    Jun 26 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Sorry, perhaps it is not correct to say that Apple lacks innovation. But there certainly has been a decrease in innovation compared to past years.

    Further, even if a new innovative product were to be released the effect on Apple's bottom line gets smaller and smaller as the company grows. It needs innovation just to maintain growth previously achieved
    Jun 26 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Thank you for clarifying this
    Jun 26 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I am not suggesting that just because Apple's PE is low it's a short, but that it could be something to consider among other things. Growth rates are decreasing, and eventually could go negative. Apple surely would not be the first tech mega cap that this happened to.

    Technically the chart is horrible, and many people have been burned in Apple. Are people going to be as enthusiastic about buying Apple as they were in the past? My guess is no, despite how strong the company may perform.

    Anyways, I am not stating that it will definitively go either way. But, that many people have clung to a low P/E as a reason to be bullish which I believe to be faulty reasoning
    Jun 26 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    As well, to be honest, the fundamentals I learned during my Master's are probably at the bottom of my list of things I actually apply in trading/investing.

    I've been trading since 2008 which isn't a long time, but it is a good start. My whole focus since 2008 has been on learning what actually drives security prices. Most of what is taught in formal education isn't that useful, and market experience as well as books such as Minervini's are much more useful in my opinion.
    Jun 26 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I don't think I mentioned puts, but yes, they are one way of protecting you from further losses. But they could also lead to losses; you're probably best seeking further financial advise.. I wouldn't recommend getting involved in derivatives unless you really understood them and the risks involved.
    Jun 26 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Further, the ipad for example was new AND innovative. A streaming radio service is more of a reason to be bearish than bullish in my opinion. Now Apple is following rather than innovating, that marks a drastic change from the Apple of the last decade.

    Yes you're right, they will obviously have new products, but I was implying new and significant. It doesn't appear like the next Ipod, Ipad, Iphone-like innovative product is expected anytime soon
    Jun 26 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Right, and the stock benefited from that. That trend seems to be ending which is not surprising as it was unsustainable. Growth is slowing, the company is massive, and now lacks innovation.

    I am not trying to oversimplify things, but WHY the numbers are coming down is not nearly as relevant as the fact that they ARE coming down in my opinion.
    Jun 26 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    To conclude that a +40% slide in the stock is due specifically to the S3 and Note 2, or even Samsung the company, is pretty far-fetched in my opinion.

    As well, while some fund managers may be vocal about positions in order to sway sentiment, your comment that "to make money, the big boys makre sure that the stock is in an over-bought or oversold situation, using numerous writers to enhance their strategies" is also quite far-fetched. The peak numbers of hedge funds who were long Apple also coincided with the peak in the stock price.

    Further, over-bought and over-sold are very subjective descriptions. A stock can be short term overbought but long term oversold and vice verca.

    Finally, your comment implies that an institution can effectively manipulate the stock price. While that may be true over very short time periods, in a company as large as Apple, it certainly is not true in the long term
    Jun 25 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    To be honest the article was a little scattered and could have been articulated better, but happy to hear you found value in it.

    Sounds like you're in a tough position. Its important to try and not think about what price you purchased the stock at as that has no bearing on its future direction. At this point I would suggest putting a stop in to protect against future losses.

    I would also suggest that hoping Cook has truly new innovative products is not the best approach, and that there may be better places to be put your money. He may well have a product that could be a catalyst, but that seems more like a gamble given the price action.

    Perhaps a hard dollar stop that protects against future losses, as well as time stop that you can measure objectively. Rather than looking for "the situation to improve", set your self a target, such as if the stock isn't above $465 by Q1 Jan 2014 you move on.
    Jun 25 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    I think its a mistake to think that understanding the customer can help understand Apple's future prospects. I don't think the company is going away anytime soon, and the company truly is great, but I am looking at things that move the stock.

    Again I am not an expert, but I would suggest that you are extrapolating your familiarity and fondness of the company to the stock. A great company and a great stock can be very different. It's the same mistake that many make when they work for a company and receive stock in their company. People perceive their company to be good, and accordingly expect the stock to be good too, which unfortunately isn't necessarily the case
    Jun 25 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    Seeking Alpha is fundamentally based so they don't typically allow thorough technical analysis. The bottom line is that the trend is down. This comes at a time when the stock market, despite the recent pullback, has been strong. Apple is declining in both absolute and relative terms; there is nothing bullish about that. Until some sort of base is formed I think the stock will trade sideways at best.

    At this point I would say Apple needs to close above $465 to be considered for a long term investment.
    Jun 25 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Still Offers Nothing Bullish [View article]
    A dividend and a buyback can often be an indication that they have nothing more productive to do with the cash; this is very bearish.

    If they had a lineup of projects that could potentially generate new revenues than they would be pursuing those projects with its cash. The dividend is a large confirmation that Apple is now a value stock rather than a growth stock
    Jun 25 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Market Scholar
COMMENTS STATS
337 Comments
249 Likes