Market Shadows

Long only
Market Shadows
Long only
Contributor since: 2010
Company: Market Shadows & Cycle Editing
Agreed, Paul Price both sold puts and bought the stock. I think Trevor did both. (He can correct me if I'm wrong.) I agree that selling the low strike price puts is leaving more money on the table than necessary -- and I think the stock also has room to continue higher so I didn't feel the need to hedge by selling calls -- I think that is also what Paul said. Thanks for your comment. I was hoping someone would read the post... :-)
Still waiting for commissions for marketing from years ago.... I appear to be blocked from every other course of communication. Must be doing really well, huh?
Citoc,
Looks like you are right, and the spoon is following your orders. :-)
Haven't studied history but would like to when I'm not so busy not studying history. However, I don't think humans always, or even mostly, act in their own best interests, so I doubt that the entire argument rests on that presumption.
"The discussion of tapering was initiated for a reason." - I think the reason was to help stocks ease lower, but as a matter of confidence disruption. Having the Fed actually taper right now is another story. Paul (who wrote that part) doesn't think they will do it; I tend to agree and think it's unlikely in the near future.
James, what goes into determining your measure of liquidity - what's numbers/formula. Not sure I understand exactly how it is determined. Thanks.
Yes, there was a delay in posting this article. However, Paul still thinks HD is overpriced. ~ Ilene
Hi bgold and all, I was using econmatters' article to show reasons why at least one person is quite negative on AAPL. She also believes the Fed will stop printing money, and the liquidity in the market will dry up, leading to declines the next three years. (Or that was my understanding of the article.) Our group (including Paul Price and Lee Adler), contributing to the Market Shadows newsletter, is bullish and not expecting a loss of liquidity in the near future - so we've been buying stocks in our virtual portfolio. The question came up regarding AAPL - of course, it's a very popular stock.... Check out: http://bit.ly/WtMXle
Citoc, what's the thing you disagree on?
Please see our newsletter for this week's thoughts on the market and updates to Paul Price's Virtual Value portfolio: http://bit.ly/UjNrdA
Pharmboy's article can be found in last week's newsletter: http://bit.ly/Z0t4tF
Thanks for the comments, and good point on the tax selling.
Initially, the questions were in black and the answers were in red so it was easy to see. But basically questions 1 and 2 had more than one part, and now that there's no red to make it clear, it's not. Is this better or is it still confusing? http://bit.ly/xdr4Xx
I agree.
Yep, had to change a few things, do you see a big problem I missed?
Corrupted - I don't really know how anyone paying attention could think otherwise. Do you have a reference for explaining who owns the Fed - I've never been quite clear on it, except that the banks own it in some way? Thx.
Notice also Lee said that the Fed works almost always through Primary Dealers (except when it's busy dealing with crises). It's my understanding that the PD (banking industry) also owns the Fed. It would be hard to set something up that could get more corrupted faster if we tried....
i think it's a no-win situation....
thanks
<<"Secondly, you share how the FED is becoming quite proficient at manipulating the very same market via 'news' articles and speeches (?). The irony is delightful! How dare the 'private' market operate in place of FED manipulation! Don't ya know the FED hates competition?">>
I don't see the irony. The Fed should not be manipulating the market, that's not a "free market" - but a free market without intelligent regulation is destructive. We have an unfortunate combination of unrestricted "free markets" when the big banks are making money - with little regulation. And then bailouts and Fed manipulation when the big banks screw up and need taxpayer money. It's not irony, it's an outrageous gaming of the system in favor of a select few.
I think there's no plan to end the plan to have a plan to have plan.
How about these guys: http://bit.ly/q4IMQe/
Convoluted, you might like this article by Bruce Krasting: http://bit.ly/nlQpWU/
~ Ilene
I don't understand how you can seriously condemn a whole generation of people. I suppose, in your mind, younger people deserve the big debts we're creating and handing off on them.
Yes, I think so.
Note: This article was written by Pharmboy at Phil's Stock World. The byline didn't make it into this post. Here's Pharmboy's section at PSW:
www.philstockworld.com.../ - Ilene
I didn't remember this when I posted the article, but the Stealer's Wheel song with the scene in the movie Reservior Dogs makes a good point about the situation: www.youtube.com/watch?...
I really like Michael Hudson's articles and try to read all of them. Your proposed experiment would be interesting,... but probably very few would agree to participate.
How do you see it continuing, in what form - the central banks buying each others debt?
I think QE3 is a possibility (in some form) but that it would likely require some serious pain before it gets support.
Correction: Our exporters also greatly benefited from the [weak] Dollar and that benefit will reverse itself should the Dollar reassert it's strength.
Hi helosixx,
Thanks for your thoughts!
Those all sound like good ideas to me.
<<That being said, I think the housing market is still in serious trouble. *Short – Banks, specifically JPM, BAC, and C. They still have not marked to market all of their non-performing loans, many of them would actually be insolvent if required to do so. Empty homes are hidden in plan sight in most neighborhoods and still being held off the market. Banks do this because once the distressed sale takes place the loss must be claimed on their earnings reports. The volume is too great to do this all at once and they are relying on the economy getting better to save them. >>
Do you think the economy will ever get better and save them?
*Unless there is a QE3 and then I would be LONG banks by trading PUTS on FAZ, mainly because of the money effect on prices not because I think a QE3 would actually work long term.
I don't either.
<<Short PLCM – anyone who is pushing the stock obviously does NOT use Poloycom products. I paid 16K for two polycom systems that do the exact same thing my iPhone 4 does for free. >>
Sounds worse than some of the complaints about CSCO.
<<Short VMW – a 40B market cap for a company whose main competition is Microsoft's Hyper V. Microsoft actually gives the Hyper V license away for free when you buy a Server license. (Microsoft Server operating systems are typically used in VMware virtual environments) Not a good situation to be in if you’re VMWare. Remember Netscape? >>
Do some people think MSFT might buy them out?
<<Short Solar stocks – I think most of their money comes from government subsidies; it’s the only explanation for the strength in these companies. The power output vs. cost per panel for solar is not cost effective in most applications.
Long wind power – GE actually has some great products and has made great progress in redesigning the gearing to reduce wear. This extends the investment and increases the ROI on wind turbines.>>
So do you think the future market for wind power will be much greater than that for solar energy?
Thanks again for your ideas.
Ilene
GWBJ:
<<During my career of treating private patients I saw three cases who died shortly after admission to the ER. Nothing helped. I saw one male 38 in Dallas VAH who was S/C for "asthma". >>
What's "S/C"?
<<You diagnose primary pulmonary hypertension by demonstrating increased pulmonary pressures in presence of normal pulmonary wedge pressure performed by cardiac catheterization. It cannot be diagnosed any other way. >>
Does that test distinquish between primary or secondary PH? Is secondary more responsive to treatment?
<<Placebo effect? >>
It doesn't seem like this particular condition is very highly affected by the placebo effect (relative to other conditions, like pain), as a guess.
<<I saw less than 6 cases treating adults for 30 + years. >>
<<I've been told nobody knows what causes Primary PH and there's no treatment but combined heart and lung transplant. >>
Is your opinion just on the primary type rather than secondary forms, is that more treatable? more common?