Key Unemployment Indicator Signals Recession Might Be Ending [View article]
Thanks, John. The only reason that I brought up the question as to retirees/fired individuals being replaced is that it goes to the question of growth. No economic growth is being measured in that situation.
Will the Fed Get Too Much Regulatory Power? [View article]
The Fed has "too much" unconstutional power? The Fed itself is unconsitutional. My read of the constitution states that money creation is a power reserved to Congress. It is an undelegatable power. In 1913 when Congress created a PRIVATE central bank, it was the same as if Congress gave Lockhead the right to declare war. Originally sold as a response to periodic liquidity crises (spurred by the Panic of 1907), the Fed has uncheck powers not subject to review or audit. It even controls interest rates. Thought that was a market function! And they sure have done a very good job. The "dollar" that they were put in control of in 1913 is now worth less than 5% of its original purchasing power. Now they, in conjunction with Congress and the Treasury, are working on eliminating the value of the last nickel! That idea has really worked out very well.
On Jun 18 08:44 AM fireball wrote:
> the fed already has too much unconstitutional power. bankers buying > politicians to see to their best interest is one of the major portions > of this problem. > the country needs a jackson, instead we get a statist.
Book Review: Joe Ponzio's F Wall Street [View article]
Thank you Jae! Based on your review, I just ordered the book. I have found that if you can find just ONE good idea in a book, it was worth the read. Tend to agree, short term, with market ace. However, that can be said of any market at any time in history. We are ALL traders. Just we all use different time frames. Buffet is a trader. Just his time frame tends to be decades. Without "gamblers" and us evil day traders, your "investors" would have no liquidity. Everyone surves a purpose as a market participant.
Key Unemployment Indicator Signals Recession Might Be Ending [View article]
John, I appreciate your thoughful work and thinking. It has occurred to me that perhaps we are looking at the unemployment figures through the wrong end of the telescope. I do not know by what methodology this could be approached but how about looking at job creation? Subtract the retirees from the picture (as a new person hired to replace a retired worker does not create a job) and we might get a better picture of what is going on. We just might find that very few NEW jobs are being created. Certainly no match for the jobs being lost or eliminated by several orders of magnitude. The statistics, as reported, are subject to various statistical problems at best and outright manipulation at worst. This year's graduating classes are a case in point. These graduates are NOT part of any statistics as they have not been in the job market. Anacdotal infomation suggests that the Class of '08 is having the worst time finding jobs in living memory. I do believe that the unemployment statistics hides a situation FAR worse than most imagine.
Think you should consider owning gold mining stock and I do. However, that, again, is JUST paper and is absolutly not a substitute for the ownership of physical metals under your DIRECT control. therefore, i respectfully disagree. You should, as a prudent man, buy the metals.
On Jun 20 12:06 AM tom Andersen wrote:
> Owning gold mines is owning a company that 'can raise prices with > inflation' - in fact the real price of gold will go up with inflation, > while expenses are basically tied to the rate of inflation. So its > a leveraged position on gold that can pay dividends, etc. You don't > have to buy the metal.
Maybe a lot more afoot here, Watson! Who sold the puts and who bought them? In as much as two banks have a short corner working in the gold market, would be willing to say that one or the other is involved in an options trade of this size. Both banks are custodians for gold ETFs. Hmmmm......
On Jun 19 05:43 PM Donald Ingram wrote:
> A bet is still a gamble. For myself - no way would I be short in > THIS gold market. Too much upside pressure, with a good mix of volatility. > Bloomberg's report today doesn't help any with erroneous reporting > of this weeks longest gold "losing" streak? > Six days of trading within a very narrow range and coming out just > a few dollars and change difference! > Yup. Sounds like a long "losing" streak! Not. If anything - flat > line.
Well, most of history is not Yap Island history (they had NO metal deposits to begin with). Gold is money. It is deaf and listens to no one. Paper listens to everyone. Especially central bankers and craven politicians. Without a metals standard, there is no known way to reign in politicians buying votes with deficit spending. Or bankers from creating "money" out of thin air by use of the modern fractional banking system. Paper ALWAYS fails for the above reasons. Gold has been money since the dawn of time and will remain so until we are gone as a species. Might want to get Nathan Lewis' book..Gold: the Once and Future Money. Best treatise on the subject I have found.
On Jun 19 10:36 PM kohalakid wrote:
> Salt was once used as a medium of exchange. The Yap Islanders used > huge round stones as a store of wealth. Money doesn't require some > intrinsic value to be a medium of exchange, it just needs to be accepted > as a medium of exchange. What has run the dollar down is not merely > that it's printed on paper, but that too many are printed. That you > can use a printed paper dollar to buy goods and services virtually > anywhere on the planet makes it a medium of exchange. What is screwed > up is how many the government prints to finance the biggest growth > industry of all: government.
Here, here! First step: Abandon Empire. We are no good at the Empire business. Second step: abolish the Federal Reserve and return to sound money that The People control. Third step: we desperately need to form The Restitution Party whose platform seeks the resititution of The Republic and a RETURN to constitutional government. Then maybe, just maybe, we can unwind this mess by getting back to work.
On Jun 19 10:27 PM kohalakid wrote:
> But they can't vote themselves the public fisc if government keeps > to what the Founders intended for the Federal government. I don't > see in the Constitution where it says the Federal government should > be responsible for my retirement plan or my health care. > If the Federal government did only what the Constitution gives it > a mandate to do, we wouldn't have 99% of our budget problems. > Like I said, it's the implementation of bad (unconstitutional) ideas > that cause the problem, not the basis system.
Ah, Vitaliy. Good article but you are child of a fiat world soon to be no more. I shall deal with your points one at a time. 1. It is NOT hard to own gold. I have owned gold for most of my life. Can't attach a "logical value" to it? Gold has constant value. It buys today what it did 1,000 years ago. Try thinking of it in terms of a store of value. Gold does not fluctuate in value, the percieved value of fiat fluctuates. 2. GLD may or may NOT own any physical gold. It is very interesting to note that the custodial bank for GLD is one of two banks that have established a short corner in the gold futures market. You might want to check Ted Butler's work in that area. 3. TIPs, currency ETFs. etc are ALL just paper in which you have counter party risks. Even (maybe now especially!) the US Treasury represents counter party risk. Physical gold ownership is one of the few things financial left in this world with NO counter party or intermediary risks! 4. Perceiption that gold may not be worth anything? That is idiocy as it runs counter to man's experience with gold since he has been on this planet. 5. Again, gold is NOT an investment. It is money in the truest sense of the word as it has been a constant store of value in exchange for thousands of years and will be for thousands of years to come. The current fiat "experiment" has been tried innumerable times in history. Not one has been successful. Not ONE. This one will fail as did the others.
Things to keep in mind. IF the value of your labor is subject to manipulation by central bankers who can add deposits out of thin air, thus creating inflation. How is your labor to be valued? You get paid say $100. That $100 costs 2 cents to print. Ever wondered what happened to the other $99.98? Sure, it is good for exchange for things you need and want. But since the "invention" of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, they have inflated away 95% of the value of a "dollar". We are now just working on that last nickel. How can you have a just and equitable society when the "money" is subject to such manipulation? Answer: you can't. That is why we are in a sorry state of affairs today we find ourselves in and it shall only get worse. Much worse. This is the largest fraud ever perpetuated on The People. We have been so flim-flammed and bamboozled we do not even know which end is up anymore having lived our entire lives in a fiat fairyland.
On Jun 19 04:08 PM kohalakid wrote:
> Trace--- > > All the things you write of above are very legitimate concerns and > it is clear the United States has taken a wrong turn since just about > the time Roosevelt started Social Security. But I'd respectfully > disagree that without gold and silver, economies and political systems > are doomed to failure. > I believe the failure comes from the implementation of bad ideas, > (Social Security, Medicare.etc) not from the "system". Even such > a economic genius as Milton Freidman is not sold on the idea of a > gold standard currency. He says it's silly to spend all the time > and effort to mine gold only to lock it in a vault as money. When > combined with his rational thinking on the way a free society should > work, he's right. Where things jump the track is when government > spending gets out of control. That's the result of bad ideas. > While gold and silver may serve to constrain bad ideas, it's the > implementation of those ideas that cause the problem. > > You and I are close in our thinking. I believe the simplest solution > is to elect those who subscribe to correct economic and political > theories of freedom. We're a long way from that now, which is why > I stay long the metals. But conspiracy.....??? I don't go that far.
Gold: Critical Test for Inflation Trade [View article]
Death of the dollar is coming. Got gold? Got silver? Soon, this discussion will become irrelvent as NO amount of fiat will buy you one small oz of gold. History is repleat with examples. This is an old well trodden road we are on. It may eventually come down to those without gold will not eat. Hope to be wrong about this but a prudent man hedges his downside risks.
Job Market Still Weak, Though Marginally Improved [View article]
Oh how statistics do lie. Only reason the unemplyment rate is WAY under reported is those that have already run out of benefits are no longer part of those figures. Know a few people here in California that are now on general relief and one that is sleeping on the street at this point. Long ago lost their jobs, diligently tried to get another. Kind of tough to do when the local Burger King gets 15-20 unsoliced requests for employment applications per DAY. Long ago lost their homes. Families are gone as well due to divorce and seperations. Show me the growth engine to turn this around. You can't. It will only get worse.
"Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years. [View news story]
I was using a very simple construct. You can also look at it this way. The fiat represtents value in say factories and avocado orchards. When you remove the factory and the orchard from the equation, all the fiat in the world will buy you NOTHING. This is a simple logical fact that modern economists and politicians cannot seem to get through their heads. What we are trying to do here is drive a bunch of Brinks trucks loaded with fiat out into the Mojave Desert and declare the factory and the orchard as done deals.
"Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years. [View news story]
Simple, mac. Inflation is caused by more fiat chasing the same goods around. LOL
On Jun 16 10:03 PM Machiavelli999 wrote:
> " Demand does not change for fuel and neither does supply. However, > another "dollar" is introduced. Voila! A gallon of fuel goes to $2." > > > > THIS IS FALSE!!! > > Its not that easy to create inflation!!! If it was, monetary policy > would be much, MUCH easier.
Market Outlook: Have Markets Ignored Reality? [View article]
Great stuff all around! Good article and comments. Nothing gets a trader's blood up than a fierce discussion of UP or DOWN. Setting aside the fact that NOBODY knows what happens next let alone two days, two months or a year from now, purely fun to speculate. My probable scenario: the current pullback will be fairly short and shallow. maybe a tad below S and P 880-900. then a move to S and P 1050 in early Fall. Then it will be Kattie bar the door time. S and P 540ish based on fundamentals. But, being predominately a day trader, I do not worry about all of that and just listen to the market as it sings through price.
Key Unemployment Indicator Signals Recession Might Be Ending [View article]
Will the Fed Get Too Much Regulatory Power? [View article]
On Jun 18 08:44 AM fireball wrote:
> the fed already has too much unconstitutional power. bankers buying
> politicians to see to their best interest is one of the major portions
> of this problem.
> the country needs a jackson, instead we get a statist.
Book Review: Joe Ponzio's F Wall Street [View article]
Key Unemployment Indicator Signals Recession Might Be Ending [View article]
5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush [View article]
On Jun 20 12:06 AM tom Andersen wrote:
> Owning gold mines is owning a company that 'can raise prices with
> inflation' - in fact the real price of gold will go up with inflation,
> while expenses are basically tied to the rate of inflation. So its
> a leveraged position on gold that can pay dividends, etc. You don't
> have to buy the metal.
A Gold Putdown? [View article]
On Jun 19 05:43 PM Donald Ingram wrote:
> A bet is still a gamble. For myself - no way would I be short in
> THIS gold market. Too much upside pressure, with a good mix of volatility.
> Bloomberg's report today doesn't help any with erroneous reporting
> of this weeks longest gold "losing" streak?
> Six days of trading within a very narrow range and coming out just
> a few dollars and change difference!
> Yup. Sounds like a long "losing" streak! Not. If anything - flat
> line.
Potential COMEX Gold Fail [View article]
On Jun 19 10:36 PM kohalakid wrote:
> Salt was once used as a medium of exchange. The Yap Islanders used
> huge round stones as a store of wealth. Money doesn't require some
> intrinsic value to be a medium of exchange, it just needs to be accepted
> as a medium of exchange. What has run the dollar down is not merely
> that it's printed on paper, but that too many are printed. That you
> can use a printed paper dollar to buy goods and services virtually
> anywhere on the planet makes it a medium of exchange. What is screwed
> up is how many the government prints to finance the biggest growth
> industry of all: government.
Potential COMEX Gold Fail [View article]
On Jun 19 10:27 PM kohalakid wrote:
> But they can't vote themselves the public fisc if government keeps
> to what the Founders intended for the Federal government. I don't
> see in the Constitution where it says the Federal government should
> be responsible for my retirement plan or my health care.
> If the Federal government did only what the Constitution gives it
> a mandate to do, we wouldn't have 99% of our budget problems.
> Like I said, it's the implementation of bad (unconstitutional) ideas
> that cause the problem, not the basis system.
5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush [View article]
1. It is NOT hard to own gold. I have owned gold for most of my life. Can't attach a "logical value" to it? Gold has constant value. It buys today what it did 1,000 years ago. Try thinking of it in terms of a store of value. Gold does not fluctuate in value, the percieved value of fiat fluctuates.
2. GLD may or may NOT own any physical gold. It is very interesting to note that the custodial bank for GLD is one of two banks that have established a short corner in the gold futures market. You might want to check Ted Butler's work in that area.
3. TIPs, currency ETFs. etc are ALL just paper in which you have counter party risks. Even (maybe now especially!) the US Treasury represents counter party risk. Physical gold ownership is one of the few things financial left in this world with NO counter party or intermediary risks!
4. Perceiption that gold may not be worth anything? That is idiocy as it runs counter to man's experience with gold since he has been on this planet.
5. Again, gold is NOT an investment. It is money in the truest sense of the word as it has been a constant store of value in exchange for thousands of years and will be for thousands of years to come. The current fiat "experiment" has been tried innumerable times in history. Not one has been successful. Not ONE. This one will fail as did the others.
Potential COMEX Gold Fail [View article]
On Jun 19 04:08 PM kohalakid wrote:
> Trace---
>
> All the things you write of above are very legitimate concerns and
> it is clear the United States has taken a wrong turn since just about
> the time Roosevelt started Social Security. But I'd respectfully
> disagree that without gold and silver, economies and political systems
> are doomed to failure.
> I believe the failure comes from the implementation of bad ideas,
> (Social Security, Medicare.etc) not from the "system". Even such
> a economic genius as Milton Freidman is not sold on the idea of a
> gold standard currency. He says it's silly to spend all the time
> and effort to mine gold only to lock it in a vault as money. When
> combined with his rational thinking on the way a free society should
> work, he's right. Where things jump the track is when government
> spending gets out of control. That's the result of bad ideas.
> While gold and silver may serve to constrain bad ideas, it's the
> implementation of those ideas that cause the problem.
>
> You and I are close in our thinking. I believe the simplest solution
> is to elect those who subscribe to correct economic and political
> theories of freedom. We're a long way from that now, which is why
> I stay long the metals. But conspiracy.....??? I don't go that far.
Gold: Critical Test for Inflation Trade [View article]
Job Market Still Weak, Though Marginally Improved [View article]
"Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years. [View news story]
"Too high, too soon," Nouriel Roubini says of the recent surge in oil prices, possibly contributing to this afternoon's selloff. Roubini's equally bearish on gold, warning it looks "toppy" and noting deflationary pressures will dominate for the next two years. [View news story]
On Jun 16 10:03 PM Machiavelli999 wrote:
> " Demand does not change for fuel and neither does supply. However,
> another "dollar" is introduced. Voila! A gallon of fuel goes to $2."
>
>
>
> THIS IS FALSE!!!
>
> Its not that easy to create inflation!!! If it was, monetary policy
> would be much, MUCH easier.
Market Outlook: Have Markets Ignored Reality? [View article]