MarkitWacha

Velocity of U.S. Money Supply Is Finally Edging Up

You're right. I'm a part-time bond vigilante, but of meager means. I've been trying to mortgage my house a second time to get more capital to bet against this government via bond vigilantism.

Also, as a software engineer, I call upon the Federal Reserve to grow a pair and open their clearinghouses to a 24-hour / 7 days a week operation. THAT is a HUGE bottleneck, and RESTRAINS the velocity of money around the world. I call on Congress to make the same requirement of banks. This is, after all, 2009. Banking hours are now changed. Banksta directors need to do more than scratch their backsides.

The Fed needs to spend the puny $20 million (+/-) to upgrade their clearinghouse operations, in order for GDP (via velocity) to grow. It's an easy choice, except to our vacuum-pated Banksta Slackas.


On Nov 20 09:20 AM The Simple Accountant wrote:

> It's a curious set of data out there. If V is picking up, the bond
> market isn't reflecting it (ref. John Jansen's Friday outlook) in
> the short maturity yields. It does bear watching however. Supply
> + velocity is a recipe for incipient money inflation, and one would
> think the bond vigilantes would be all over this.
>
> My own allocation is presently overweight fixed income, but a good
> portion of this is TIPS; I have been anticipating putting on the
> inflation trade for some time now. The trigger event for me would
> be a material increase in yields, but for now the ongoing inflation/deflation
> debate remains unresolved.

Is the Dollar Toast?

My prediction:

* dollar loses value, and accelerates that loss into 2010
* energy inflation kills off 2% of the jobs that are left
* Democrats lose control of the house, but not the senate. The gridlock will actually be a good thing, as it will prevent chaos.
* Everyone slogs through the next 4-5 years
* One of the following happens: net-positive fusion, low-temp heat pump (thermoelectric), $0.50/watt solar panels. Any of these makes the energy markets go absolutely bananas.
* The new, low, cost of energy provides the basis for the next worldwide economic expansion.

Till then,
Long: DBC, TBT

Tax Carry-Backs, Or Political Payoffs?

Mark-to-fantasy was bad enough. Now this??

Might as well stop taxing corporations altogether and just print money out of thin air. Then, we the people can vote for a higher or lower inflation rate.

Fiat money is about to show its ugly side.

long: DBC, TBT


On Nov 17 05:17 AM manya05 wrote:

> Well, it could be bribery..but it could also be another back-door
> use of taxpayer's future money to continue levitating the market.
> This will help teh bottom line and keep some stock from tanking.
> Despite Obama's apparent disregard for the stock market (its is like
> a "tracking poll") I think he now realizes that another sharp downturn
> like 2008 under his watch and his administration is toast. Most people
> cannot take another hit like that on their retirement accounts. So
> these guys will be VERY creative on ways of levitating the market
> to create the illusion of wealth.

U.S. Job Losses Demystified

I won't believe the country is making progress until we get rid of Obama the Great Socialist.


On Nov 16 11:01 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> I won't believe Obama is making forward progress until he gets rid
> of Larry Summers. The guy is poison.

U.S. Job Losses Demystified

The government can never be benevolent. It can only redistribute a portion of its plunders.

Socialism is the shared misery of all. I'll have my misery my own way, thank you very much.

Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come'

What I hate the most is the nothing can "correct" in capitalism if it has to compete with the public offering. Public jobs take away from the efficiencies we'd have otherwise.

Let the government do what it does best, and leave the rest to the people. Government is good for standards, monitoring, enforcement, law and order, and public safety. It's not good for jobs and never has been.

This is perverted capitalism at its worst.

By the way, Dallas is booming with all the 'refugees' from other states. Apparently, Texas is doing something right compared to IL, CA and MI. Freedom comes with blessings.

If This Is a Recovery...

As the currency collapses, manufacturing will pick up the slack. The illegals will leave to go back to where they've been sending their dollars.

Texas employment markets are stable, which is why the idiot extremist socialists from the coasts are coming here to Dallas in droves. I can literally flip off 4 Californians at once by raising my hand through the sunroof when I'm driving to and from work.

Despite What You May Have Heard, There's Hiring Going On

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm using up my dollars to buy physical assets rather than keep them and watch the dollar tank.

That should be a boost to the economy if others do the same. I'm hoping for another boost of inflation, so my house payments go down in real terms.

In my specialty, software engineering, it's brutal--as expected. The new grads in May will be lucky to find an administration job in IT.

The Weak Dollar and the Too-Big-to-Fails

Yes, a break up would be the right thing to do, but the lobbyists will pay up so that it won't happen.

Internet banks will eventually drive out the brick and mortar banks, I hope. Look at the difference in efficiency. It's a logical progression, and deserves some tax credit or some of the stimulus, instead of sending the money down the drain where the fat cats are at BofA / Chase / <insert bank name here>

Time for more meritocracy. Citadel made the cover of Bloomberg magazine. I hope they DO give Goldman Sachs a run for it.

David Rosenberg - Unemployment Rate Headed Higher than Anticipated

Here's a scenario:

* Unemployment reaches 13% after the stimulus wears off
* Christmas sales convince 100,000 small retailers to close.
* Unemployment reaches 15% by March 2010
* Dollar continues it's slide (already down 20% this year), causing oil price to be $100 or $120
* Republican Congress becomes reality
* Unemployment goes to 8% by 2011
* Oil continues upward due to 4% of GDP govt. borrowing.
* Mortgage rates creep up to 7%, stalling real estate
* next recession hits due to high oil price in late 2011
* Government raises taxes locally via property taxes.

I think the next good year won't be till 2014, when a new fusion plant becomes net-energy-positive (prototype already works), and the energy markets go bananas.

Long: TBT, DBC

Treasury: No Inflation Worries Here

"Naked short sell inflation to collect premiums today (how about those positive externalities?) and lengthen the portfolio duration to buy as much time as possible ahead of the day of reckoning."

Wow. Given that Mexico's decreasing oil production is already causing oil price inflation (in addition to the dollar's fall), these fools would destroy the country tenfold. The negative possibility is that TIPS will skyrocket, costing the country billions (or Trillions) more.


Long: TBT , DBC

My Visit to the U.S. Treasury

kudos.

Tell it like it is, even when that's what people don't want to hear. Even when free speech is threatened under Obama's regime.

"if you tell the public something often enough, they'll begin to believe it" -- Goebbels

"the truth is the enemy of the State" -- also by Goebbels (propagandist Nazi)

Long: TBT, DBC

Oh Yeah, The Economy Is Improving

Natural gas generates electricity currently at about $0.04/kWh

Fusion is expected to cost the same.

My point is that there's really very little impetus until the gas is used up, and the supply curve changes the price.

good article.

U.S. Wages Are Out of Balance, As We Well Know

The US dollar index is getting a major haircut.

I can speak only for the software engineering profession when I say that wages vary from $20/hr to $100/hr, for nearly identical work.

The difference is that large corporations send their work overseas, at a 10% discount, then it comes back and gets done when there is a communication barrier. For example, simple websites cost a pittance, but anything with complexity costs 5 times as much--per engineer.

In Dallas, the cost of labor for anything physical is coming down to minimum wage again. I'm getting my 4T furnace replaced for $1200, labor and taxes included.

Peak Oil: Still Headed for a Train Wreck

Pickens plan is meant to address this, but it will still be painful.

We might have a chance if synthetic liquid fuel can be mass produced via a Fisher-Tropsch reaction. That will still require billions in investment. It's more likely that natural gas will be extracted to its limits first.

Small decreases/increases in demand can mean large price movements. In 1980, a 5% decrease in supply meant a 100% increase in price. The reverse may also hold true. Ford's next generation of direct injected engines are extraordinary. >100 HP from a 1.4 L engine.