Seeking Alpha

Marshall Hargrave

 
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PRO Articles
PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
  • New York & Company Isn't Your Typical Turnaround
       • Fri, May. 16 NWY Comment!

    Summary

    • New York & Company has moved beyond the turnaround stage and is now transitioning to a growth story.
    • The women's apparel retailer is now focusing on growing its outlet store presence and increasing its omnichannel platform.
    • All of this leads to a fair value of around $5.50.
  • ADT Is A Cash Flow Machine With A Renewed Focus
       • Tue, May. 13 ADT Comment!

    Summary

    • ADT is the market leader when it comes to home security.
    • Its Pulse mobile app should help increase ARPU and lower attrition.
    • The DCF value suggests upside to $52, and multiples suggest $41 price target.
  • The Lack Of Winter Weather Makes Vail Resorts A Buy
       • Fri, May. 9 MTN Comment!

    Summary

    • Vail Resorts is the purest play on the ski industry, but it also has plenty of real estate to monetize.
    • Its dividend yield is around half of what other "entertainment" stocks offer, but that should change in the near future.
    • With all of this, fair value is close to $88 a share.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Has The Best Fleet In The Industry
       • Fri, May. 9 NCLH 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Norwegian has the smallest, but youngest fleet in the industry. Both of which are major advantages for the cruise line.
    • Its freestyle form of cruising and superior fleet helps Norwegian command higher prices for its cruises.
    • Even using multiples that are well below its peers suggest fair value is $40.
  • Is Finish Line Winning The Shoe Retail Race?
       • Wed, Apr. 30 FINL Comment!

    Summary

    • Finish Line is one of the top retailers of running shoes, but it's gaining strength in other areas of the market.
    • It's also gaining a larger presence in the women's market, while also adding new brands thanks to Macy's store-in-a-stores.
    • With all this fair value is around $31.
  • Tuesday Morning Is A Challenging Opportunity, But An Opportunity Nonetheless
       • Tue, Apr. 1 TUES 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Tuesday Morning is more than just a growth story, it has a number of growth opportunities.
    • Its turnaround story has included improving its merchandise assortment and cleaning up its stores, including standardizing its store layout.
    • The growth that much of the market might be overlooking is its store relocation program, which gets its stores in better markets.
    • With all this, fair value is around $17.
  • Kirkland's Offers Growth Exposure That You Can't Get From Bed Bath & Beyond
       • Fri, Mar. 28 KIRK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Kirkland's was hit especially hard by the market following 4Q results, but it looks to be an overreaction to the weather.
    • Its store base is a third of what Bed Bath & Beyond and Pier 1 boast.
    • Fair value is over $25 given its store expansion opportunities and margin growth related to improved order management and CRM.
  • The Ride Is Just Getting Started At Shoe Carnival
       • Wed, Mar. 26 SCVL 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Shoe Carnival has been beaten down 20% YTD, but looks to be the top player in the family-focused value shoe space.
    • The continued rollout of new stores, a larger focus on ecommerce and a national ad campaign rollout could turn the shoe retailer into a growth story.
    • The multi-year price target is $29, but this could easily be higher as Shoe Carnival becomes a growth story, ultimately getting some multiple expansion.
  • Aeropostale Might Be The Cheapest Turnaround In Retail
       • Wed, Mar. 26 ARO 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Aeropostale is down nearly 25% over the past week, which comes as the company missed earnings, gave a dismal 2014 outlook, and saw inventory and A/P balloon during 4Q.
    • Despite the concerns, the retailer has a lot of positives with regards to sub-brands and sourcing, not to mention its Sycamore Partners deal that can ultimately help boost margins.
    • As Aeropostale looks to increase its footprint in the less competitive pre-teen girls space, while also expanding internationally, the market should realize that fair value is closer $8.
  • Is Christopher & Banks The Next Coldwater Creek?
       • Fri, Mar. 21 CBK Comment!

    Summary

    • There's been a 30% drawdown in the share price since December highs.
    • The weather pressured store traffic and sales, with its stores being closed 35% of the time during the December month.
    • Its move back to "basic" apparel is resonating with shoppers.
    • Increased marketing investments and a plan for improving inventory should help propel the stock to $8.
  • Foot Locker Is The Best And Broadest Play In Retail Shoes
       • Wed, Mar. 19 FL Comment!

    Summary

    • Foot Locker has already had an impressive run, but more upside's to come with the help of a renewed focus on women's shoes.
    • Its core business of basketball shoes remains solid and there could be some pent-up demand for running shoes.
    • Remodeling is bringing in more customers and boosting sales conversions.
    • The retailer is a decent income play, yielding 2%, with plenty of upside to the stock, potentially to $58.
  • Is Columbia Sportswear Still A Great Play On Winter Weather?
       • Mon, Mar. 17 COLM Comment!

    Summary

    • Columbia Sportswear has been a great way to play the "cold" winter, but there are still a number of catalysts that still make the stock an attractive growth story.
    • The retailer is looking to capitalize on the success of fishing and hunting stores in two major ways, by opening its own stores and increasing its in-store presence .
    • With a balance sheet that's better than ever and a renewed focus on innovation, Columbia has a fair value of close to $100 per share .
  • BJ's Restaurants Is Still The Best Growth Story In Casual Dining
       • Sun, Mar. 16 BJRI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • BJ's is being pulled down by the weakness of the entire casual dining industry, but the restaurant is still a growth story with expansion opportunities.
    • Luxor Capital and PW Partners own 10% of the company and are pushing to get new directors elected to the board.
    • With the help of menu innovation and embracing mobile technology, BJ's should trade closer to $44 in the near-term.
  • Rocky Brands Is Off To A Rocky 2014
       • Thu, Mar. 13 RCKY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite the very cold winter, this boot maker is still trading at 52-week low.
    • The growing strength in its retail segment, including the shift to ecommerce, should offset exposure to the military and actually grow margins, leading to a $22 price target.
    • With only two analysts following the stock, the company is set up for an earnings beat in 1Q as the early 2014 weather led to impressive growth in its work.
  • Skechers Is Still One Of The Shoe Industry's Value Plays
       • Thu, Mar. 13 SKX Comment!

    Summary

    • Shoes are one of the bright spots of the retail industry, and Skechers grew nicely during 4Q, despite the weather. Thanks to its boots and various lined footwear.
    • Overseas is a big growth opportunity, with double-digit improvements in European regions, Canada and Brazil for the fourth quarter.
    • Activist is getting involved and calling for a board shakeup, with the upside to between $43 and $47.
  • Spirit Airlines Could Still Be On Sale
       • Tue, Mar. 11 SAVE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Spirit Airlines leads the industry in "low price," but is misunderstood given its pricing structure.
    • It has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, with negligible debt - an uncommon feature in the airline industry.
    • With margin expansion opportunities thanks to the potential to sell ancillary products and optimize its capital structure, I have a $71 price target.
  • Republic Airways Isn't Just Another Struggling Regional
       • Tue, Mar. 11 RJET 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent pullback is an over reaction to a long-term positive move that Republic is making to increase its exposure to large jets, which are more profitable.
    • A storied history, a potentially new CBA, being one of the nation's largest regional airline operators and partnerships with major airlines should help give Reupblic navigate the pilot shortage.
    • The rebounding economy and margin expansion opportunities support a $12 price target.
  • Ballard Power Systems Remains The Best Bet On Fuel Cell Potential
       • Sun, Mar. 9 BLDP 32 Comments

    Summary

    • Ballard has recently shed non-core assets and opted not to renew unadventurous in an effort to better focus on fuel cells.
    • The strong order bookings from Walmart, BMW and Mercedes-Benz by Plug Power is a positive for Ballard.
    • There's still significant growth opportunities in new markets, where Ballard is testing for telecom backup power. And it should gain a presence in the telecom fuel cell market in Myanmar,
  • The Diffusion Of Vonage Into New Markets Can Take It Even Higher
       • Sat, Mar. 8 VG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Voice over internet protocol still has viable opportunities in North American and emerging markets.
    • The company has a robust IP portfolio that it can monetize via licensing, adding another revenue stream and boosting margins.
    • It still has plenty of upside to my $6.25 price target, driven by the capturing of more business and "value" focused customers via its new initiatives.
  • Don't Let The Recent Earnings Miss Keep You From Buying Chico's FAS
       • Thu, Mar. 6 CHS 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The stock has been pressured due to a weak fourth quarter, but the issues of weak traffic and a highly promotional environment will reverse this year.
    • The retailer is revamping its product assortment to better resonate with shoppers, while also making tech a bigger part of its stores to support its omni-channel strategy.
    • The continued push into international markets and a greater contribution from its lesser-known brands will drive the stock to $23 over the next couple years.
  • Iconix Brand Group Is An Icon In Licensing
       • Wed, Mar. 5 ICON 1 Comment
  • Having A Fit Of Haverty Furniture's Valuation
       • Wed, Mar. 5 HVT Comment!
  • Just How Fruitful Is A Fresh Del Monte Produce Investment?
       • Fri, Feb. 28 FDP 1 Comment
  • Why Mr. Market Shouldn't Be Lazy On La-Z-Boy
       • Thu, Feb. 27 LZB Comment!
  • Choice Hotels Is Making Investors A Bit More Comfortable
       • Wed, Feb. 26 CHH Comment!
  • Can Cardtronics Prove That Cash Is Still King?
       • Tue, Feb. 25 CATM Comment!
  • Graphic Packaging Still Packs A Punch
       • Fri, Feb. 21 GPK Comment!
  • Net 1 Is A Great Play On The Unbanked Market
       • Thu, Feb. 20 UEPS 5 Comments
  • PennyMac Mortgage Offers A 10% Dividend Yield, And That's Not The Best Part
       • Wed, Feb. 19 PMT 5 Comments
  • Carbonite Is An Overlooked Tech Company With Upside Potential
       • Mon, Feb. 10 CARB 1 Comment
  • SunCoke Energy: A Unique Investment In Coke With Continued Upside Opportunities
       • Thu, Feb. 6 SXC 3 Comments
  • Brink's Is An Emerging Market Growth Story
       • Wed, Feb. 5 BCO 1 Comment