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Marshall Hargrave

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  • Wunderlich: Angie's List likely to find suitors [View news story]
    ANGI screaming to be shorted here.
    Oct 3, 2014. 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax In The Home Stretch On BlackBerry Acquisition, Right? [View article]
    And they're coming down the home stretch now, it's BlackBerry and J.C. Penney, J.C. Penney and BlackBerry, they're neck-n-neck, it's anyone's guess who'll win the race to $0, but it looks like it's going to be a heck of a finish either way.
    Oct 25, 2013. 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raven Industries: Value Exists In Diversified Machinery [View article]
    Why I like Raven - fundamentally driving the demand in emerging markets will be population and income growth in emerging economies. This increase in population will lead to an increased demand for food/water and an increased demand for food/water means more demand for Raven's products -- a beautifully virtuous circle.
    Aug 17, 2013. 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Air Products And Chemicals: This Hedge Fund Manager's Best Deal Yet [View article]
    Good stuff Alex, worth noting is that although Air Products isn't tied to the commodity markets via its direct products, it is due to energy costs. Low nat-gas prices really helped the company prior, given the cheapness of it thanks to the supply glut. Nat gas is the largest cost component in Air Products business, eating up around 15% of revenues.
    Aug 10, 2013. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does IBM Stack Up? [View article]
    I still like IBM even with the debt. IBM's ROE is high given the debt, but even accounting for debt, IBM's return on capital is nearly 31% with MSFT"s at 18.5%. Good article nonetheless!
    Jun 13, 2013. 04:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Too Much Uncertainty At SandRidge [View article]
    I can see one of the larger players finding some value in SD, but anything below $5.75/shr. will be too painful for a number of shareholders.
    Apr 22, 2013. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Long-Term Catalysts To Consider When It Comes To Plains All American, L.P. [View article]
    Great article. I agree with Woody, I'd be less concerned with the payout...with MLPs its all about location, location, location, PAA is well located.
    Apr 9, 2013. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: A 12% Dividend Dog With Legs [View article]
    It's a bold pick, I'm also on the other side. The interest coverage for WIN is around 1.1x, compared to CTL and FTR, both over 2x. What I'm most afraid of is that dividend payout compared to FCF and debt load as you allude to...
    Apr 1, 2013. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billionaire Bruce Kovner's Largest Small-Cap Positions [View article]
    ccschons, I believe it is per their last 13F filing (Sept. 2012)...
    Feb 6, 2013. 12:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Tough Call With Post Holdings [View article]
    Thanks for the insight're right, but MG holds more clout than any analyst, maybe that's just me. Wasn't trying to make the best case, just a fair one.
    Oct 7, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's: Best Con In Rent-To-Own? [View article]
    here here prbs, just a quick note until I get time to give you rebuttal you deserve. FD: I'm not short or long, never been involved in CONN otherwise. Was truly interested in potentially owning CONN as a deep value play, but didn't like what I saw. Nothing more, nothing less.

    In any case, I think one of the big issues with being in business for 100 years is that businesses change, management gets greedy. Their total A/R is the equivalent to annual sales. Think about that for a minute. Back in 2004, A/R was 25%, then 40% in 2010.

    On the EV/EBITDA, it's not entirely fair to say that AR cancels debt, especially when you might not collect that AR. In the loosest case -- if you wipe out their credit facility debt which they use to finance this AR -- the EV/EBITDA is still 7.3x. Love the chance to dive deeper into the CONN story. More later.
    Oct 7, 2014. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday Morning: Making The Hard Decision [View article]
    Fair point Jan, but we'd argue that Macy's attracts a very different customer. Macy's targeted customer is very different from M. As is the JCP customer. TUES is purely a treasure hunt experinece, the M and JCP models are very different from that. Not to mention the location differences, i.e. standalone versus mall stores.
    Oct 7, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Reaction To TravelCenters Of America Quarterly Results Makes No Sense [View article]
    TA is a great story on the surface, but they still have a corporate structure problem that will lead to increased volatility and sub-industry valuation.
    Oct 5, 2014. 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boyd Gaming: Bet Against The House [View article]
    I'd have to second the argument of not comparing LVS/WYNN to BYD. The regional casino operators are very different beasts than some of the national operators. They tend to carry "high" debt loads. I also don't like the d/e aspect given BYD has some a high level of negative RE. It's pretty well in line with peers when it comes to debt to assets.
    Oct 31, 2013. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Producers Look Expensive Even After Plunge [View article]
    Indeed, but prior to the run to $900, potash was around $200
    Aug 6, 2013. 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment