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Martin Bauer  

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  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    You're welcome. Let me know if you have any thoughts or questions and I will try to be of assistance.

    Nov 28, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Well, there's still plenty out there to research... IAR Systems (which I wrote an article about turned out to be a good long play as well)

    I'll "give" you another one, though with higher risks involved.

    There is a privately held American company, Protein Sciences Corporation (PSC), who received FDA-approval for a revolutionary type of flu vaccine this year. It's actually the manufacturing process which makes it interesting, as it enables you to rapidly scale volumes compared to traditional alternatives such as using egg-based vaccines. Sure, the FDA-approval for this seasonal flu vaccine is "nice" and a true value driver. However, it becomes much more interesting when you apply the same methodologies to pandemic flu, such as the swine flue or the bird flu. Here the company is in the absolute forefront. Adding to the potential is that they are also experimenting with an EBOLA-vaccine, which has the clear advantage compared to all other manufactures as it doesn't require any live viruses in the production. It is "by far" the safest alternative out there, to quote NIH.

    Ok, so why should an investor in common stock cares about a privately held company? Well, you see, one of the shareholders in PSC is a publicly traded company in Sweden named Mertiva. They own 14,8% of PSC. Mertiva is basically a holding company for this share ownership in addition to another small Swedish company Mercodia, in which they own 19% (not relevant for this discussion). Based on the valuation Mertiva is currently trading at, the implicit valuation of PSC is approximately 300-400 MUSD. That should be compared to listed peers such as Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) of approximately 1,30 billion USD - and that's for a company in an earlier stage development than PSC.

    PSC said in early 2013 that they might consider a listing. With the recent FDA-approval I assume it's currently in the works. My best guess would be NASDAQ, depending on what the other owners, e.g. Johnson & Johnson, Wyeth/Pfizer etc., prefer. I'm therefore long Mertiva (MERT MTF:NGM) as it's a multibagger play on PSC (that very few people has discovered yet). I have met with the Mertiva CEO and the larger shareholders and attended last year's AGM.

    Read this somewhat old article (in Swedish, use Google Translate):
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Hi again,
    Did you follow through on reading about Cellavision? The share was trading at 15 Swedish Krona / share at the time of our conversation. Today it's at 36 Swedish Krona / share.

    Here you can see the share price development:
    Nov 27, 2014. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Still Value In The ARM Space? Yes: In IAR Systems AB [View article]
    Did anyone of you actually read this piece? I hope you did, as the share price development has been very strong aproximately +120%.

    Always out there hunting for bargains.

    Nov 26, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: My Game Plan For Tomorrow [View article]
    "The Seadrill Group* on a consolidated basis reports EBITDA of US$842 million, a year over year increase of 27%
    · Seadrill Limited reports third quarter 2014 EBITDA* of US$635 million
    · Seadrill Limited reports third quarter 2014 net income of US$190 million and earnings per share of US$0.31
    · The Seadrill Group on a consolidated basis maintains orderbacklog of approximately US$20 billion"
    Nov 26, 2014. 03:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: My Game Plan For Tomorrow [View article]
    "Seadrill Limited is suspending dividend distributions and focusing on debt reduction and value creating opportunities due to significant deterioration in the broader markets"

    The share is down approximately 16% on the Oslo Stock Exchange (Norway) and the fall is continuing. As a contrarian strategy, this stock could soon start to become interesting, but I'd rather wait for the downgrades to come in first from the analysts.
    Nov 26, 2014. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novavax: A Biotech Story Set To Double In 2014 [View article]
    How much of Novavax's stock price is attributable to their phase I RSV-vaccine? This article discusses the potential of their seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccines, while other articles have had more recent focus on RSV.

    I find Novavax interesting as a peer to other biotech companies within the same field - such as VaxInnate and Protein Sciences Corporation, but since all three companies have different pipelines I find it important to try and quantify and subtract products that are not comparable, such as the RSV vaccine, specific to Novavax only.

    VaxInnate seem to be very "junior" in its development, while Protein Sciences Corporation already have their seasonal influenza vaccine approved by FDA. PSC's pandemic flu vaccine is in the same development phase as Novavax's
    Feb 3, 2014. 05:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    David, here's an analysis from a Swedish niche bank. It's in Swedish, but take a look at page 6. On the right side you see the unit sales of their instruments. As they are the absolute dominant player in the market, this gives you a good proxy of the market growth. There is a fair comparison to the 3D-printing market, as this is only a preview of what is yet to come. I like the strong earnings, balance sheet and dividend though, which separates Cellavision from many of the other growth companies out there.

    And as a last piece, if you dig around and look at the top shareholders of Cellavision you find the name Henrik Hedlund, who also happens to be.......the 6th largest shareholder of Arcam.
    Dec 6, 2013. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    They come by very rarely, and I haven't seen one quite like Arcam since your article.

    I do have one stock that I see a tremendous potential in, comparing its market cap to U.S-based peers in the same sector. Again, like Arcam, it's a Swedish company, but this time its a company with solid revenues, earnings and balance sheet and which also pays a small dividend. The valuation is nothing short of "tantalizing" when noting that this medical technology company, who is a world leader in its market (routine analysis of blood and other body fluids), with distribution deals with four (out of five) of the world's largest distributors in the medtech sector, more than 1 500 installed machines accumulated, high growth in China, good revenue split between NA (of course they are FDA-approved since many years), Europe and Asia, with strong management who has been with the company for many years, is only valued at ~55 MUSD which is P/S ~2. The company I'm talking about is Cellavision, $CLVSF, and is listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Small Cap. With an American listing I would expect multiples much, much higher.

    Worth noting in this context is that Roche, the Swiss medical company, acquired a U.S.-based start-up this summer, Constitution Medical, for 220MUSD in cash upfront, plus additional milestones payments. This company, which has no product, no FDA-approval, and no revenue, is acting within the same market as Cellavision. I do not have the insight as to why Roche did not buy Cellavision instead, but I certainly would be interested in hearing anyone's opinion in this matter.

    I'm convinced Cellavision is a multi-bagger, but maybe not a ten-bagger that Arcam turned out to be.

    Send me an e-mail and we can discuss more.

    Dec 1, 2013. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    This is an epic article, forever placed in the hall of fame. Good call, Mr Allen.

    Nov 18, 2013. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Thank you Mathias (fellow Swede?) for a good article.

    I don't necessarily agree with you that the F2P-monetization model reduces entry barriers. As a developer you're actually giving away value initially, hoping to recoup it through micro-transactions. True, it monetizes the players at a higher level than the pay-before-you-play model, but requires significant cash to survive the gap between release and recoup of investment. Also, as a game-as-a-service, there are also much higher running cost supporting the game with updates than with the traditional model.

    I do however agree with you in full that the gaming market has been transformed the last couple of years. Mobiles and tablets have had a huge impact, and perhaps this is something which could be added to your analysis. What actions are they taking to tap into this growth market.

    As for the new console generation, new IP tends to come early in a cycle, so I expect new IP, from either existing studios or unknown new developers, to take a surprise position in the coming year following the release of PS4 and Xbox One.

    Oct 15, 2013. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Is Goldman Sachs Right? [View article]
    Thank you for interesting thoughts. Time will tell. Tonight I'm watching the Microsoft reveal.

    May 21, 2013. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile's Acquisition Price Could Surpass $10 [View article]
    Let me just put this name out there: G5 Entertainment. It's a leading publisher within the hidden objects and time management genres of casual games. Already its traded at a small exchange in Stockholm, Sweden, but is planning to move to Nasdaq OMX during the fall. Expect more interest about this company as foreign investors will be able to invest, which is rather difficult at the moment. The stock is up some 1500% since 2009, yet is trading at a p/e of approx. 13. It's loaded with cash, has the best growth in the industry and has basically better multiples than its peers in most aspects.

    Just saying...
    Mar 14, 2013. 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Still Value In The ARM Space? Yes: In IAR Systems AB [View article]
    The data provider for Seeking Alpha does not provide any data for IAR Systems AB. I would recommend the reader to visit IAR Systems website for detailed share information and historical prices.
    Feb 21, 2013. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Won't Go Bust - Here Are 4 Reasons Why [View article]
    Correct, AMD has not been a reliable supplier and that's a problem. That doesn't exclude #1 though. By keeping the pressure on Intel, the customers can negotiate a better deal...often with Intel. Much like the hypothesis that can be seen in one of the Microsoft RT vs Pro articles (and comments) published today here on Seeking Alpha. Microsoft invested in the Microsoft RT with an ARM-design just to keep the pressure on Intel to develop some decent low-power x86-designs.
    Feb 21, 2013. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment