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Martin Bauer

 
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  • Novavax:A Biotech Story Set To Double In 2014 [View article]
    How much of Novavax's stock price is attributable to their phase I RSV-vaccine? This article discusses the potential of their seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccines, while other articles have had more recent focus on RSV.

    I find Novavax interesting as a peer to other biotech companies within the same field - such as VaxInnate and Protein Sciences Corporation, but since all three companies have different pipelines I find it important to try and quantify and subtract products that are not comparable, such as the RSV vaccine, specific to Novavax only.

    VaxInnate seem to be very "junior" in its development, while Protein Sciences Corporation already have their seasonal influenza vaccine approved by FDA. PSC's pandemic flu vaccine is in the same development phase as Novavax's
    Feb 3 05:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile's Acquisition Price Could Surpass $10 [View article]
    Let me just put this name out there: G5 Entertainment. It's a leading publisher within the hidden objects and time management genres of casual games. Already its traded at a small exchange in Stockholm, Sweden, but is planning to move to Nasdaq OMX during the fall. Expect more interest about this company as foreign investors will be able to invest, which is rather difficult at the moment. The stock is up some 1500% since 2009, yet is trading at a p/e of approx. 13. It's loaded with cash, has the best growth in the industry and has basically better multiples than its peers in most aspects.

    Just saying...

    http://bit.ly/YuB0wC

    http://bit.ly/13VHAUK
    Mar 14 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    Seems like we should get back and focus on the numbers here. Of course sabalos you may be right in the long term, but perhaps it will be years until you see this high stock price again. Then the author have at least given you an opportunity to invest elsewhere in the meantime.
    Feb 17 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    David, here's an analysis from a Swedish niche bank. It's in Swedish, but take a look at page 6. On the right side you see the unit sales of their instruments. As they are the absolute dominant player in the market, this gives you a good proxy of the market growth. There is a fair comparison to the 3D-printing market, as this is only a preview of what is yet to come. I like the strong earnings, balance sheet and dividend though, which separates Cellavision from many of the other growth companies out there.

    http://bit.ly/1bMDaE4


    And as a last piece, if you dig around and look at the top shareholders of Cellavision you find the name Henrik Hedlund, who also happens to be.......the 6th largest shareholder of Arcam.
    Dec 6 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    They come by very rarely, and I haven't seen one quite like Arcam since your article.

    I do have one stock that I see a tremendous potential in, comparing its market cap to U.S-based peers in the same sector. Again, like Arcam, it's a Swedish company, but this time its a company with solid revenues, earnings and balance sheet and which also pays a small dividend. The valuation is nothing short of "tantalizing" when noting that this medical technology company, who is a world leader in its market (routine analysis of blood and other body fluids), with distribution deals with four (out of five) of the world's largest distributors in the medtech sector, more than 1 500 installed machines accumulated, high growth in China, good revenue split between NA (of course they are FDA-approved since many years), Europe and Asia, with strong management who has been with the company for many years, is only valued at ~55 MUSD which is P/S ~2. The company I'm talking about is Cellavision, $CLVSF, and is listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Small Cap. With an American listing I would expect multiples much, much higher.

    Worth noting in this context is that Roche, the Swiss medical company, acquired a U.S.-based start-up this summer, Constitution Medical, for 220MUSD in cash upfront, plus additional milestones payments. This company, which has no product, no FDA-approval, and no revenue, is acting within the same market as Cellavision. I do not have the insight as to why Roche did not buy Cellavision instead, but I certainly would be interested in hearing anyone's opinion in this matter.

    I'm convinced Cellavision is a multi-bagger, but maybe not a ten-bagger that Arcam turned out to be.

    Send me an e-mail and we can discuss more.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Dec 1 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    This is an epic article, forever placed in the hall of fame. Good call, Mr Allen.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Nov 18 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Thesis For Activision Blizzard [View article]
    Thank you Mathias (fellow Swede?) for a good article.

    I don't necessarily agree with you that the F2P-monetization model reduces entry barriers. As a developer you're actually giving away value initially, hoping to recoup it through micro-transactions. True, it monetizes the players at a higher level than the pay-before-you-play model, but requires significant cash to survive the gap between release and recoup of investment. Also, as a game-as-a-service, there are also much higher running cost supporting the game with updates than with the traditional model.

    I do however agree with you in full that the gaming market has been transformed the last couple of years. Mobiles and tablets have had a huge impact, and perhaps this is something which could be added to your analysis. What actions are they taking to tap into this growth market.

    As for the new console generation, new IP tends to come early in a cycle, so I expect new IP, from either existing studios or unknown new developers, to take a surprise position in the coming year following the release of PS4 and Xbox One.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Oct 15 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Is Goldman Sachs Right? [View article]
    Thank you for interesting thoughts. Time will tell. Tonight I'm watching the Microsoft reveal.

    Regards,
    Martin
    May 21 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Still Value In The ARM Space? Yes: In IAR Systems AB [View article]
    The data provider for Seeking Alpha does not provide any data for IAR Systems AB. I would recommend the reader to visit IAR Systems website for detailed share information and historical prices.

    http://bit.ly/W6x7n5
    Feb 21 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Won't Go Bust - Here Are 4 Reasons Why [View article]
    Correct, AMD has not been a reliable supplier and that's a problem. That doesn't exclude #1 though. By keeping the pressure on Intel, the customers can negotiate a better deal...often with Intel. Much like the hypothesis that can be seen in one of the Microsoft RT vs Pro articles (and comments) published today here on Seeking Alpha. Microsoft invested in the Microsoft RT with an ARM-design just to keep the pressure on Intel to develop some decent low-power x86-designs.
    Feb 21 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amerco: Move And Store Your Cash In This Stock [View article]
    Should provide additional fuel for the stock price:


    January Existing Home Sales: 4.92M vs. consensus 4.90M, 4.94M previous.
    Feb 21 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Won't Go Bust - Here Are 4 Reasons Why [View article]
    What you are looking at is not the final product, and a well-guarded demo. We have seen them pull stunts like that before (just read the comments in the article).

    However, I'm not denying Intel are making great advances, but generally compared to AMDs' APUs, I'm yet to be convinced.

    As for the "they suck"-statement, it was to describe the public sentiment and from a brand value point of view, the "Intel Inside"-sticker only applies for the CPU.

    Respectfully,
    Martin
    Feb 21 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Won't Go Bust - Here Are 4 Reasons Why [View article]
    I would say that is a question of definition. They have become better on the APU-side of things, but even there their processors' graphics capabilities are significantly weaker than AMD's offerings in the same department . Will be interesting to see what Haswell will bring to the table.
    Feb 21 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amerco: Move And Store Your Cash In This Stock [View article]
    Any thoughts on the amount per share for such a regular dividend and at what frequency?
    Feb 20 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    When I evaluate a potential investment I tend to invest in companies active on a market where there is either strong growth, or where there has been stability for many years. In the case of 3D printing, the market is certainly growing. No one doubts that. No one neither doubts there will be many exciting things to come in this industry in the coming years. But my second criteria is to look at the valuation of the potential investment. It has to look attractive, both stand alone as well as compared to peers. The third criteria is stability of earnings or revenue. I simply can't force myself to invest in the 3D-printing stocks at the current P/X-ranges present now.

    In my latest article, in fact my only article here on Seeking Alpha yet, I briefly look at one investment which fulfills all three criteria. The market is embedded systems, and is related to the proliferation of the ARM-design, yet not a long in any semiconductor company and all of their associated volatility of earnings. There's strong growth in the embedded systems market, the future holds a lot of exciting promises, BUT the investment target looks attractive on its own, with a trailing twelve month P/E of 15 + a cash abundant balance sheet, dividend yield of 5% AND there is strong stability in revenues. Except for the underlying market growth I (criteria one) I cannot force myself to regard the last two criteria as fulfilled in any of the 3D-printing stocks.

    Respectfully,
    Martin
    Feb 18 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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