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Martin Bauer  

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  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    You're welcome. Let me know if you have any thoughts or questions and I will try to be of assistance.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Nov 28, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Well, there's still plenty out there to research... IAR Systems (which I wrote an article about turned out to be a good long play as well)

    I'll "give" you another one, though with higher risks involved.

    There is a privately held American company, Protein Sciences Corporation (PSC), who received FDA-approval for a revolutionary type of flu vaccine this year. It's actually the manufacturing process which makes it interesting, as it enables you to rapidly scale volumes compared to traditional alternatives such as using egg-based vaccines. Sure, the FDA-approval for this seasonal flu vaccine is "nice" and a true value driver. However, it becomes much more interesting when you apply the same methodologies to pandemic flu, such as the swine flue or the bird flu. Here the company is in the absolute forefront. Adding to the potential is that they are also experimenting with an EBOLA-vaccine, which has the clear advantage compared to all other manufactures as it doesn't require any live viruses in the production. It is "by far" the safest alternative out there, to quote NIH.

    Ok, so why should an investor in common stock cares about a privately held company? Well, you see, one of the shareholders in PSC is a publicly traded company in Sweden named Mertiva. They own 14,8% of PSC. Mertiva is basically a holding company for this share ownership in addition to another small Swedish company Mercodia, in which they own 19% (not relevant for this discussion). Based on the valuation Mertiva is currently trading at, the implicit valuation of PSC is approximately 300-400 MUSD. That should be compared to listed peers such as Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) of approximately 1,30 billion USD - and that's for a company in an earlier stage development than PSC.

    PSC said in early 2013 that they might consider a listing. With the recent FDA-approval I assume it's currently in the works. My best guess would be NASDAQ, depending on what the other owners, e.g. Johnson & Johnson, Wyeth/Pfizer etc., prefer. I'm therefore long Mertiva (MERT MTF:NGM) as it's a multibagger play on PSC (that very few people has discovered yet). I have met with the Mertiva CEO and the larger shareholders and attended last year's AGM.

    http://on.ft.com/1xYHz04

    Read this somewhat old article (in Swedish, use Google Translate):
    http://bit.ly/1xYHz08
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    Hi again,
    Did you follow through on reading about Cellavision? The share was trading at 15 Swedish Krona / share at the time of our conversation. Today it's at 36 Swedish Krona / share.

    Here you can see the share price development:
    http://bit.ly/1xJDJUP
    Nov 27, 2014. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    David, here's an analysis from a Swedish niche bank. It's in Swedish, but take a look at page 6. On the right side you see the unit sales of their instruments. As they are the absolute dominant player in the market, this gives you a good proxy of the market growth. There is a fair comparison to the 3D-printing market, as this is only a preview of what is yet to come. I like the strong earnings, balance sheet and dividend though, which separates Cellavision from many of the other growth companies out there.

    http://bit.ly/1bMDaE4


    And as a last piece, if you dig around and look at the top shareholders of Cellavision you find the name Henrik Hedlund, who also happens to be.......the 6th largest shareholder of Arcam.
    Dec 6, 2013. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    They come by very rarely, and I haven't seen one quite like Arcam since your article.

    I do have one stock that I see a tremendous potential in, comparing its market cap to U.S-based peers in the same sector. Again, like Arcam, it's a Swedish company, but this time its a company with solid revenues, earnings and balance sheet and which also pays a small dividend. The valuation is nothing short of "tantalizing" when noting that this medical technology company, who is a world leader in its market (routine analysis of blood and other body fluids), with distribution deals with four (out of five) of the world's largest distributors in the medtech sector, more than 1 500 installed machines accumulated, high growth in China, good revenue split between NA (of course they are FDA-approved since many years), Europe and Asia, with strong management who has been with the company for many years, is only valued at ~55 MUSD which is P/S ~2. The company I'm talking about is Cellavision, $CLVSF, and is listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Small Cap. With an American listing I would expect multiples much, much higher.

    Worth noting in this context is that Roche, the Swiss medical company, acquired a U.S.-based start-up this summer, Constitution Medical, for 220MUSD in cash upfront, plus additional milestones payments. This company, which has no product, no FDA-approval, and no revenue, is acting within the same market as Cellavision. I do not have the insight as to why Roche did not buy Cellavision instead, but I certainly would be interested in hearing anyone's opinion in this matter.

    I'm convinced Cellavision is a multi-bagger, but maybe not a ten-bagger that Arcam turned out to be.

    Send me an e-mail and we can discuss more.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Dec 1, 2013. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Undervalued 3D Printer Manufacturer? Yes: Arcam AB [View article]
    This is an epic article, forever placed in the hall of fame. Good call, Mr Allen.

    Regards,
    Martin
    Nov 18, 2013. 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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