Seeking Alpha

Martin Lowy

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Martin Lowy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Fed To Release $600bn Of Treasuries Into The Reverse Repo Market At Year-End [View article]
    Why would the Fed want to facilitate window dressing?
    Nov 4, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spending And Income, Inseparable Except By Bubble [View article]
    Excellent commentary, thank you. One of the (many) things I have been puzzling over lately is what caused the brief excellent performance of the labor market in 1996-99. Your data show how good it was comparatively and data on the returns to skill also were excellent in those years. Do you have a hypothesis?
    Nov 4, 2014. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Higher Velocity Will Not Necessarily Mean Higher Inflation [View article]
    Cullen, would you please address the question of why velocity took off for the period 1990-1996? There are various views in the comments, but yours would be useful. Thanks.

    One of the resins I ask is that 1996 was a watershed year for a number of trends, and velocity might have something to do with them.
    Oct 23, 2014. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Prefer Banks Riskier Or More Highly Leveraged? A False Dichotomy [View article]
    That is all theory, Sleek, just as Admati and Hellwig is all theory. What we need is a study of historical data that looks at banks with varying capital levels and seeks to find their relative costs of capital. Such a study is hard to design, however, because risk profiles are difficult to quantify.
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Prefer Banks Riskier Or More Highly Leveraged? A False Dichotomy [View article]
    Your theory is good, JD, but it has proven hard to implement.
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Prefer Banks Riskier Or More Highly Leveraged? A False Dichotomy [View article]
    The article you cite raises the right issues. But I do not see that it convincingly shows that lending costs would be higher. I do think that 30% capital (which is what the article discusses) borders on the silly, even though there are those in Congress and academia who advocate such a level.

    It may be that if capital has to be 10% of total liabilities, there is some impact on loan rates. But I wonder whether it would be material to most borrowers. You might try to hypothesize the types of borrowers that would be affected. Not credit card borrowers, I think. Not home loan borrowers, I think. Maybe some business borrowers, perhaps. But what is, say, 25 bp to them?

    i think the 125 bp hypothesized by the article at 30% is way high anyway because the market will lend at lower rates. Look at the brief history of the P to P market. I think it shows how competition in lending now works. Banks are not alone.
    Sep 25, 2014. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Would You Prefer Banks Riskier Or More Highly Leveraged? A False Dichotomy [View article]
    Banks now account for about 20% of credit in the U.S. There are many competitors for borrowers. I have seen no convincing studies that say lower bank leverage means higher borrowing costs. it could be true. But please do not assume it. There are many theoretical reasons that it might not be true.
    Sep 25, 2014. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Narrow Banking: An Old Idea With New Advocates [View article]
    Thanks.
    Sep 22, 2014. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: The Buy For When You Get An Itchy Trigger Finger [View article]
    Thanks, Jim, I will look for it.

    I was not writing on SA because I was working on a book that i hope will be out in a few months.
    Sep 16, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Savings Glut Era: Continued Low Real Interest Rates [View article]
    Yes, favorable for stock prices. But to what extent is it already built in?
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Savings Glut Era: Continued Low Real Interest Rates [View article]
    You are right that the period from WWII to 1970 was aberrational and that to compare with that period is less useful than most people think. Robert Gordon of Northwestern has some good data on that. Take a look at the papers I linked to.
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Savings Glut Era: Continued Low Real Interest Rates [View article]
    Might be. But please take a look at the papers I have referenced. They are brief, and I think they make a good case that the savings rate issue has been building a long time and logically can lead to low real interest rates.
    Sep 11, 2014. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Savings Glut Era: Continued Low Real Interest Rates [View article]
    Yes, Chinese savings have been very much part of the story.
    Sep 10, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Lost Decades Revisited [View article]
    Thanks for this fine article.
    Sep 2, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proof Of A Structural Change In The U.S. Workforce [View article]
    Doug, my hypothesis is the nature of work available in the U.S. has been changing and that the population has not kept up educationally. For that reason, I think we are likely to continue to see more of the same until we have a larger percentage of people getting good post-secondary education, which they cannot get if they finish high school not being ready for it.
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
300 Comments
230 Likes