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Martin Redfield

 
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  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    Kind of hard to reply when you keep having my posts deleted.
    Mar 29 08:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    Still no citation or link, eh? I guess we have all come to expect that by now. BBBY selling 1M a year sounds pretty amazing. No link for that either I suppose. So much for "verifiable."
    Mar 28 12:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    I didn't make any comment, I just want you to back up yours. With 20M or fewer brewers out there, stating "in fact millions use the My K-cup" is not at all obvious. Like ProfitHound, I have a My K-Cup gathering dust somewhere too. Owning and using are two very different things. I am convinced that GMCR sells them just to sway folks to buy into the Keurig system, but once they get used to the convenience, they go with the disposables.
    Mar 26 11:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain's Keurig 2.0 Has Opportunities And Downside Risk [View article]
    Please cite a source for "millions" of My K-Cup users. Or admit that you just made that statistic up.
    Mar 26 08:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    I was looking at full year data - the actual performance, not the quarterly guidance you quote. Here is what they actually accomplished:

    "Fiscal Year 2013 Revenue of $4.4 billion, Up 16% vs. Year Ago (52-to-52 weeks) "
    "Fiscal Year 2013 Free Cash Flow of $603 million"
    "Fiscal Year 2013 GAAP EPS of $3.16"
    "Fiscal Year 2013 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.39, Up 45% vs. Year Ago (52-to-52 weeks) "

    These data are all from their 8-K dated 11-20-2013 (i.e. actual annual numbers).

    In other words, they under-promised and over-delivered. Just as I predicted.
    Feb 6 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Sorry Bill, but my numbers came straight from their 8-K's and 10-Q's. Forgive me if I find their numbers more credible than yours.
    Feb 6 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Wow, Bill, thanks for going and re-reading my articles! But you might want to pay a little closer attention. When I made those predictions in 2013, I said "In this article, I attempt to gather information from a variety of sources to provide some insight into what we might see in the next year or two." Sounds like 2015 to me!

    Here is what I said regarding partners for the carbonation business: "GMCR K-Cups, on the other hand, are pretty much a "Who's Who" of coffee brands, a result of broad-ranging partnerships, license agreements, and acquisitions ... there is more than meets the eye to luring rising star Brian Kelley away from Coca-Cola (KO) to be GMCR's new CEO."

    Finally, you said "Also, you stated that FY 2013 guidance was ultra-conservative, yet they ended up having to reduce it." What utter nonsense. At the time I wrote the article, they expected 15-20% sales growth, and they achieved 16%. They expected non-GAAP annual earnings of $2.64 to $2.74, and they achieved $3.39. They expected free cash flow of $100-150M, and they achieved $603M. From the time I wrote the article, they made or beat their predictions across the board for FY13.

    Don't be so grumpy Bill, or at least check your facts before you lash out!
    Feb 6 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Remember one my other predictions - they will build a combined machine that will brew both coffee and cold carbonated beverages. Thus minimizing precious countertop space, and effectively shutting out the one-dimensional competitors. The GMCR story is still very interesting!
    Feb 6 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Deal With Coca-Cola Shows Desperation [View article]
    Always so gloomy, Bill! GMCR's quarter was about as they had guided - no big surprise one way or the other. As I suggested in one of my articles, GMCR is back in the mode of under-promising and over-delivering. They knew they could sandbag their forward guidance and still get a big pop in share price with the Coke deal. Now they are set up to report beats for the next few quarters.

    GMCR's coffee growth has moderated, but they still managed to sell more brewers last quarter than ever before. And (as I predicted in one of my articles) they are closing the K-Cup ecosystem to competitors with their 2.0 machines, which will increase their cartridge market share and improve their pricing power.

    With the Coke deal (which I also predicted in one of my articles), investors realize that GMCR will become a growth stock again, with all the expansion funded by their K-Cup cash cow. Expect the P/E to reflect the growth potential of GMCR doing the same thing to the soda aisle that they have already done to the coffee aisle.
    Feb 6 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Over $300 Or Under $10? The Next Few Weeks Are Key [View article]
    Very good article Derek, thanks for sharing your research.

    I agree the near-term direction is unclear, and that longer-term the sales/earnings numbers will take share price to the appropriate level. You make an interesting case for the price range, though my personal estimates are a bit more constrained than yours. Short of a broad market collapse, I would be surprised to see GMCR drop below book value, currently above $15 per share.
    Feb 13 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Q1 2013 Earnings Recap [View article]
    Nice work as always, Seth! Thanks for sharing your research and opinions.

    One thing that I noticed on the earnings call yesterday was a significant change of "tone." Brian Kelly seems to be leaning forward on branding and efficiency, as well as some unspecified future endeavors. This seemed to be a sharp contrast with previous CEO Larry Blanford, who seemed to be somewhat "stuck in a rut."
    Feb 7 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Q1 2013 Earning Preview [View article]
    Very good article Seth! Thanks for sharing your research.

    Do you think that as the company phases in the lower-priced Vue brewers, they will phase out the lower-end K-Cup brewers? That seems a possible way to encourage the transition to the new system.
    Feb 1 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Jeff, that is certainly possible. I would be more optimistic, though, if the existing long-term joint venture with UCC had been more active over the past decade.
    Jan 30 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Jeff, based on the Canaccord briefing that I linked to, "Company estimates and study conducted by The Cambridge Group on behalf of the Company." I think additional brewers will have a lower attachment rate, but not because the "big coffee drinkers came first." Rather, I think a lot of the machines are second machines for the same household. For example, adding a machine for your desk at work will probably increase the total number of K-Cups consumed, but probably lower the average number consumed on a per-brewer basis.
    Jan 29 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Bill, it will be interesting to see if the new CEO takes a more active role in dealing with this question.
    Jan 29 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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