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Martin Redfield  

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  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    I would guess the soda cartridges would be cheaper for a couple reasons. First, manufacturing should be cheaper without the need for filters and (probably) nitrogen packing. Second, there is no real commodity involved, other than sugar.
    Jan 29, 2013. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Sydney, I really don't have any insight into the SEC inquiry, other than it seems to have been going on forever with no actions to date. You would think if there was something seriously wrong, that (1) they would have found it pretty quickly, and (2) would have upgraded the inquiry to an investigation.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Thanks Benitus. I agree with you that tea may well be the driver for international expansion.
    Jan 29, 2013. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    My previous calls to GMCR regarding patent questions resulted in no interesting revelations. Not sure what you mean by "disposable" CO2. Rather, it is consumable CO2. Which has been around since the days of Fizzies http://www.fizzies.com.
    Jan 29, 2013. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    I am sure that every one who reads the patent is very curious about just how mature this technology is. No way to know until they decide to tell us, I guess.
    Jan 28, 2013. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Carbonated coffee - interesting concept! Might not be too bad if you added enough sugar!
    Jan 28, 2013. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. I am sure there are a lot of engineering hurdles associated with a dual machine. Fixing the issue they mention might be as simple as reducing the amount of plastic that the beverage traverses after leaving the cup. With the current K-Cup system, there is quite a bit of surface area touched by the beverages below the lower piercing point.
    Jan 28, 2013. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Thank you Seth. I would tend to agree with your assessment, except that this is by far the most complex patent that GMCR has ever filed. Some of the 90 claims seem to imply that they have tried some of these things out.

    One thing about the carbonated beverage patent is kind of interesting. Most of GMCR's stable of patents are assigned to Keurig, Inc. Even the ones that were filed after the acquisition was completed by GMCR. But this one was assigned to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. I didn't even see it in my normal "canned" search at the government patent web site - someone posted about it on the ProBoards GMCR site http://bit.ly/H3x0AU Maybe not significant, but it almost seemed like they were "hiding" this filing.
    Jan 28, 2013. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Green Mountain Coffee Investor Should Know [View article]
    Based on extrapolating trends that GMCR published with their last earnings call, brewer growth for this quarter will probably be in the 10-20% range. Until they publish sales numbers, any estimate you or I make will be, by definition, based on incomplete data.

    The biggest problem with your article is that you seem to be implying that zero growth in brewer sales would be some sort of a disaster. In fact, zero growth in brewers implies very strong earnings growth.

    Wait, how can this be?

    Well, GMCR sells the brewers roughly at cost, so those sales really don't help the bottom line. The K-Cups, however, are where the money is made. You have to remember, though, that the brewers are DURABLE goods, while the K-Cups are CONSUMABLE goods.

    Based on GMCR's estimate of 11.5M brewers in service in March, there are probably about 14M in service right now. Of these, about 8.5M were sold in the past year. That is a staggering statistic, and critical to understanding why zero brewer sales growth is not a bad thing.

    What would zero brewer growth mean for next year? Well, assume the 2008 brewers all need to be replaced, since GMCR estimates the brewers have a useful life of 5 years. That would be just under 1M brewers, so there would be a net gain of 7.5M new brewers on counters in the US. Which would mean an increase in the installed brewer base of over 50%. That is not a typo - ZERO BREWER SALES GROWTH FOR NEXT YEAR WOULD INCREASE THE INSTALLED BASE OF BREWERS BY OVER 50%!

    Assume that each brewer consumes the same number of K-Cups per day, and you get an increase in the profitable K-Cup sales of 50%. So why doesn't GMCR estimate a 50% growth in earnings next year? They are undoubtedly factoring in pricing pressure from competition, and conservatively assuming they will not prevail in their court cases. And some of the brewers will be second brewers in the same consumer unit, which would have lower attachment rates. If they win their infringement case against Sturm next month, I would expect GMCR to raise their FY13 estimates significantly.

    Oh, and you mis-spelled "wily."
    Sep 5, 2012. 10:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Green Mountain Coffee Investor Should Know [View article]
    Don't get me wrong, as I said in my initial comment, your article is interesting. You just tried to stretch your data too far in terms of drawing conclusions.
    Sep 5, 2012. 08:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Green Mountain Coffee Investor Should Know [View article]
    So you think that selling Keurig brewers in thousands of new Starbucks outlets would have no effect on BBBY's share of overall brewer sales? In terms of year over year comparisons, for the record, Keurig brewers were sold at exactly zero Starbucks outlets a year ago.
    Sep 5, 2012. 07:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Green Mountain Coffee Investor Should Know [View article]
    Oh really, how very interesting. What year over year change in Keurig brewer sales do you see at Starbucks?
    Sep 5, 2012. 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Green Mountain Coffee Investor Should Know [View article]
    Interesting article, but not particularly useful. With more outlets selling Keurig brewers all the time, the expected market share for BBBY (and all other single vendors) would be expected to drop. No conclusions on overall brewer sales can be drawn from a discussion of a single vendor.
    Sep 5, 2012. 07:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Brewers: Another Line Of Defense For Green Mountain Coffee [View article]
    My estimate is based on the fact that short-range USB RFID readers are available to retail consumers for $40. GMCR would not need the case or USB components, and would be buying in quantities of a few million at a time. The much simpler system, and quantity purchases should reduce costs by well over half.
    Jul 31, 2012. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Brewers: Another Line Of Defense For Green Mountain Coffee [View article]
    Not even close http://bit.ly/MQ0BwT.
    Jul 27, 2012. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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