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Martin Vlcek  

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  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    David, thank you for everything you've done so far for us all and good luck! Stepping back is never easy. But I always look for the positives of every event. Perhaps you will become an even more valuable source of ideas for SA since you will be able to look at it a little bit more from the outside. That look could be invaluable if you stay in touch and share your views with the company.

    Congratulations to Eli! I am confident you will be terrific and I believe David has made the right choice.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece - Lessons From History [View article]
    ghiblinewt and samurat,

    You both make very good points. Thank you for contributing to the debate. There were voices at the start of the Euro project that a common currency for such an economically heterogenous region is unviable in the long run. But these voices were largely silenced due to being politically incorrect. Euro was a political project. As such, it was a success (keeping Eastern and Western Europe together and out of Russia's reach. But economically, it is a failure which conserves the economic differences.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    El Arian now puts the Grexit probability at 85% but there is a vast range of guesses out: http://tinyurl.com/pxh...
    Jun 29, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    GREK opened at around $9.75 in pre-market. NBG opened below $1, at around $0.95 and fell towards $0.90.
    Jun 29, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    P. Polimenakos,

    60% ASE to GDP is a good idea. If I compare my highest possible figure for GREK in five years from now, it is ~$25 which is about the same value as 50% to GDP ratio (current GDP). I was a bit too conservative in the model. The GDP figure itself is a moving target, so conservativeness is better than too much optimism in this kind of situation.
    Jun 29, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    It is strange that my IB platform alert was triggered for GREK which showed GREK breached the ~$9.75 level. So someone is still able to trade. Perhaps GREK will be tradable. It is not a perfect match of the Greece 20 index. So perhaps there will be an even better opportunity to bet on the GREK now after the capital controls.
    Jun 29, 2015. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Monday is a banking holiday in Greece and their stock market will be closed.
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    RS055, as SanDiegoNonSurfer wrote. It's a sovereign default, with no property to back up the claims.
    Jun 28, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece - Lessons From History [View article]
    Thank you for catching that typo. I meant Cyprus of course. I will get it corrected right away.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    As I wrote, it is to share the tool and explain how it can be used by readers to plug in their own numbers. My estimates are used just to explain the model, and give my opinion. I tried to explain the purpose of the article in the title "A downloadable scenario probability tool for estimating future GREK returns." Apologies if I mislead you in any way.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    larry,

    Predicting any outcome for Greece or valuations is almost impossible now. I clearly mention in the article that this is only my attempt and my opinion and readers can plug in their own numbers and come up with better estimates. I clearly shown that just by merely changing the factors a bit, the outcome changes from positive to negative and fluctuates widely (pessimistic scenario 1 and 2). So the sensitivity is huge here.

    The main purpose of the article is to explain and share this tool so others can plug in their own estimates.

    So let's see your analysis of what the GREK will be worth in five years form now and we can discuss. I used just a top-down macro analysis based on general return of GREK to a certain percentage of the pre-crisis valuation after five years under various scenarios (like writing off the value of the banks in the index completely in some scenarios, etc.). I used a 50% devaluation of Drachma.

    The current Greek situation is full of unknown and unknowable factors, which make this situation the hardest to estimate and value. I would be eager to see a better valuation
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    Harm,

    Thank you for your very good comment. Completely agree with you that trying to predict any future outcome, let alone implied valuations is very tough for Greece now. I believe it may be interesting for readers to plug in their own numbers because Greece is a widely discussed topic and almost everyone has an opinion. Also, the Greek saga will continue for a long time in different forms and readers will be able to plug in new estimates as the situation changes and some scenario becomes a reality.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Downloadable Scenario Probability Tool For Estimating Future GREK Returns [View article]
    stocknerd,

    I agree with you that investing now in Greece is complicated and dangerous. That being said, almost nobody is investing now, so the prices are extremely low and lots of bad things are price in. But the prices can always go lower, much lower. By the way, I am the fool who is long NBG, at $1.06 since several weeks ago.
    Jun 28, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Could be viable. But Greeks probably don't want to give any collateral. Europe and the U.S. would invest as well if there was good collateral, not just bank deposits that can be withdrawn or disappear through banks bankruptcy/nationaliza...
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Probability Of Russia Or China Bailing Out Greece Is Low [View article]
    Good point on Russia. Russia defaulted as recently as 1998 if I remember correctly, after a few years of low-priced oil.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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790 Comments
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