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Martin Vlcek  

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  • The Fatal Flaws Of VXUP And VXDN [View article]
    Excellent article. Do you know how exactly the corrective measures work? Will soma NAV be transferred from the overvalued ETF to the other one so that the overvalued ETF will simply crash by a large amount as a result on a certain date? Thanks.
    May 20, 2015. 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VXDN: A New Spot VIX Fund That Will Perform Similar To Inverse Volatility Funds [View article]
    thanks a lot.
    May 20, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo's plunge, Alibaba's rise due to potential IRS spinoff rule changes [View news story]
    A big stop loss tripping at $40. The Wall street insiders may have seen very large positions with a $40 stop loss, perhaps combined with a BABA short in an arbitrage. BABA spiked at around the same time, so a merger arb could have been unloaded.
    May 20, 2015. 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    SSA, your move is a more calm and smarter as well as safer decision. YHOO options will likely be expensive tomorrow. I know buying in the AH is rarely a good trade on a slump like this but this time I decided to go for it because I was going to pull the trigger on YHOO this morning anyway after having watched it literally for months. I basically "saved" 7% by waiting a few more hours, although I may not have bought the bottom and the transaction situation will now be more complicated. I am partly covering with short BABA.

    My thoughts go to anyone who was in the YHOO/BABA merger arb. deal before this slump. I hope for them the spread will recover but it may take some time...
    May 19, 2015. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Hmm, to say that the YHOO/BABA spread widened would be a huge understatement;-). I finally pulled the trigger in the AH and bought YHOO @$41.30. A full position right away.

    The $40 stops were definitely triggered in the swift move.
    May 19, 2015. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo's plunge, Alibaba's rise due to potential IRS spinoff rule changes [View news story]
    Wow. What a move. The $40 stop loss was tripped on YHOO. It was probably my lucky day. I was seriously considering entering the YHOO/BABA spinoff arbitrage and was about to pull the trigger but decided to keep some dry powder for any better deal on the market.

    Well, I bought YHOO now at ~$41.30 as I think they will simply find another way to make the deal work, or will keep BABA part of YHOO and the business value is untouched. Or YHOO will be taken over. many other options to make this work over time.
    May 19, 2015. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB pledges to boost bond buying; euro drops [View news story]
    They are perhaps trying to boost confidence and bond prices even more before the crucial part of the Greek negotiations to have a stronger negotiation position vs. Greece that threatens its default would cause ripples through the other highly indebted EU countries. The solution has to be found or Greece will really have no money to repay debt beyond June. That's why confidence is crucial during this period I think.
    May 19, 2015. 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Spot VIX ETF Compared To Tried And Tested VIX Futures Fund [View article]
    Does anyone know where to find the daily NAV of these funds beginning tomorrow? It will be very interesting to watch.

    Given how many just here know that there is an arbitrage opportunity, there is no way these ETFs will trade at their NAV. This smells of TVIX (50% above NAV was it?). Retail investors will probably not check the NAV and buy blindly when "VIX" is low and they "know it will rise".
    May 18, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity [View article]

    Very good points on the false liquidity of the many ETFs. It reminds me of financing long-term assets or investments by short-term debt. I think I remember where that led in 2008/2009...
    May 18, 2015. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VXDN: A New Spot VIX Fund That Will Perform Similar To Inverse Volatility Funds [View article]
    Seems like a perfect new product....

    ...for the company running the products that is.

    Thanks for the analysis. Just curious if you included the condition that the 0.15% daily transfer from VXUP to VXDN happens only with VIX below 30? Thanks.
    May 18, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Because You Can Make It Here… [View instapost]
    SHAK costs a lot to short and has no options. That's the worst situation I can think of to short. I decided to simply stay away although I think the stock will drop like GPRO which I shorted from $95.

    Edit: I just checked and SHAK costs 120% to borrow annualized. That's 30% for 3 months. The stock has to drop at least 30% in the next 3 months in order for shorts to begin making money, while undertaking risk and losing a chance to invest money elsewhere.
    May 18, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Congrats to everyone who was in POM. I am salivating especially at M_S's 55cent $25 calls!:). I skipped POM due to being fully invested and not having time to follow the process closely enough at this time.
    May 15, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Work Remotely [View instapost]
    Excellent article.

    Not everybody can be efficient working remotely. It partly depends on your personality. Working remotely (and alone) actually suits me much better than the noisy office (let alone a noisy open space!)

    I've found that working remotely and alone, whenever I want according to my daily, monthly and annual biological clock, I was able to produce all the "best" work in my life and I've been most successful working alone.

    So I wholeheartedly recommend that anyone makes the leap and tries it but make sure you have the right personality for that. Some people simply need people, face to face communication and the hectic city life to be productive.
    May 15, 2015. 04:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Prepared For Opportunities Such As Polypore [View article]
    Well said. I come to the same conclusion but I use a graphical explanation to make it easier to imagine. The current market price is a point on a slider between the pre-deal price and the final future deal price. If the current price is at 80% of this slider from the bottom, the probability of the deal happening implied by the market is 80%.
    May 14, 2015. 06:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Herbalife Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Tried To Value It [View article]

    thanks for a very nice analysis of HLF. Without emotions and using hard numbers. I wonder what assumptions about currencies you are using. In USD terms, sales are falling. In local terms, sales are up 4% Y/Y in the most recent quarter I think despite the short attacks and bad publicity. But it is true you didn't assume any regulatory risks and online business model killing traditional door to door MLM so your fair value estimate is probably very reasonable.
    May 14, 2015. 06:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment