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Martin Vlcek  

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  • Shorting Ambarella? I Don't Think So! [View article]
    Regarded,

    Thanks for an excellent article. I see many similarities between AMBA/GPRO and AAPL. Drones will become the new smartphones (making a huge sales wave with lots of R&D and investments pouring into this area. Drones could even be the core of the next bubble once the current social media/web 2.0 bubble bursts.

    I see a crucial difference between AAPL and GPRO/AMBA in that AMBA will not be able to have a strong brand (unless it becomes "Intel inside", which I doubt). but GPRO will have a strong brand. But this makes AMBA totally dependent on GPRO for high margins. The rest of the market will have tiny margins, same as in smartphones and in drone cameras of the lower ~1K resolution (HD). And if GPRO decides to drop AMBA for a cheap maker of 4K chips in 2 years from now, AMBA has ~50% downside from whatever the price will be then.

    I absolutely agree with you that shorting AMBA I very unwise, due to its current incredible growth. The price can double in one to two years, easily.
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GulfMark Offshore Is A Buy, Trading At 26% Of Its Tangible Book Value [View article]
    Tigger, this is a very cyclical stock, and very dependent on the price of oil. in 07, almost everything was terribly overvalued and you unfortunately bought at the top of the cycle. Like now most stocks are overvalued, but not oil and gas stocks. Nat. gas is trading at rock bottom prices. Oil may still have room to fall, but is more than 50% off the highs.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Long Awaited Correction Begun? [View article]
    I agree with DavidLMO, not all tops have to be euphoric. I would say the current top is stealth-euphoric. Part of the market is euphoric, such as AMZN, NFLX, TSLA,GOOG, the social media stocks, etc. Those were the stocks leading the market, so I would the growth part of the market is euphoric. China definitely was euphoric until it crashed and its real world GDP growth keep decelerating. 7% growth every single quarter? No other economy in the world can deliver such non-cyclical, non-seasonal GDP numbers. They are absolutely fake. Look at the PMI, etc. The whole Chinese market up over 100% in a year. And many U.S. multinationals (S&P 500 is almost 50% driven by exports) are sensitive to China as the biggest contributor to the global economic growth. And other countries? Just where exactly will international growth come from? Europe? China? Commodity exporters like BRICS? India is the last man standing and my guess it is overheating or at least peaking in growth in the short run.
    Jul 29, 2015. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Micro: Where Did All The Profits Go? [View article]
    Thanks, Ryan. Yep, and the comps keep rising, so this cost is not even fixed, which would at least offer a potential operating leverage. The founders are well entrenched against a takeover though. They control or influence the companies in the chain, so even a hostile takeover may not pay off as the current supply chain owners could change the deals or decide not to cooperate alltogether. The company has excellent growth at a reasonable price, in-house R&D and short time to market, so it is still a part of my portfolio.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: A Lesson In Listening To The Model [View article]
    contrarianadvisor,

    I know you like the dollar and the Treasuries at current prices and situation. Any favorite short trades to accompany the slowing global GDP which you think will be good hedges? SPY and QQQ may no do that well as the narrow group of leaders my cause them to lose much more than the really broad market. It is already happening. So I am selecting individual indebted cyclical stocks but could always use another one for diversification
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Chinese Shares Burst Government Support Dam [View article]
    Funny that the Chinese stocks started tanking late in the day as the European (and perhaps later some U.S.) investors woke up...
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Chinese Shares Burst Government Support Dam [View article]
    So much for re-shoring. The strong dollar is starting to take its toll on the physical investments, not only on the financial figures such as GAAP sales and margins and cash flow as until now.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil crash could be worst in at least 45 years, Morgan Stanley warns [View news story]
    Very true. Most experts and analysts totally missed the 50% oil slide. Why should they be any more correct now when they issue sell ratings 50% lower?

    Nobody knows how low the oil will go. It largely depends on the USD strength and other political decisions (OPEC policy, oil export). Start averaging in and be very patient. Long oil is also a great hedge of being long USD.
    Jul 26, 2015. 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn: BlackRock a 'very dangerous company' [View news story]
    I am not an admirer of Icahn at all, but what Icahn means by low liquidity is not now, when everything looks just fine. He is afraid that when all investors decide to run for the exit, THEN, there will be almost no liquidity, and certainly not enough to sell at a decent price the underlying assets to be able to return cash to the investors trying to exit the high yield markets. Everything is always fine, until it isn't. Basically most investors either want in, or want out. There is no in between. And most will want out soon once the oil& gas sector bankruptcies are more numerous and involve larger companies, and fear of contagion to other sectors spread (semiconductors, retail, mining, biotechs, etc.)
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    Yep. I wonder if some of Watsa's value investments will turn into permanent value traps due to a secular decline instead of a cyclical decline.
    Jul 25, 2015. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Key To Long-Term Investment Success [View article]
    Nicholas,

    Thanks you for an excellent piece! Incidentally, I read Ray Dalio's pdf on a risk parity portfolio. Basically he says the same thing you say, just adds the option to leverage the risk on low-beta investments, such as Treasuries.

    Do you have an opinion on using options instead of full positions for the EDV portion of the portfolio? Not necessarily to achieve leverage, but to limit the downside on EDV and use it just as an insurance, as most of the time, stocks will outperform EDV in the long run. (EDV got a 30-year tailwind from falling rates which will not last in the next 30 years, at least not in magnitude).
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Mason Hawkins Just Made Scripps One Of His Top Positions [View article]
    PalmDesertRat,

    The family control discourages me as well. Moreover, the family overall seems to be selling heavily if I see it correctly (gave it a very quick glance only).
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    When the true multi year bottom in oil is in, nobody will follow these oil reports. Everybody will have long abandoned oil and considered it dead money for the next five years. Or, this may be the oil bottom, but it may take years for the price of oil to linger at these low prices, torturing investors and oil&gas companies alike. However, once the glut clears, the surviving companies will be strong beasts, toughened by years of optimization and innovation, so they will be great investments for the years to come. Other commodities may be closer to that point, such as miners. But I still see a wave of bankruptcies there too before we see any buyable bottom.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Services Pair Trade: Long Baker Hughes, Short Halliburton [View article]
    Thanks. I pulled the trigger a few days too soon and entered a hedged spread before today's antitrust woes. Luckily a small position.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel/Micron: 3D NAND And SSDs About To Explode [View article]
    Seeing how ironic and cruel the market is in the short run (GOOG +16%, AAPL - 10% at one point after latest earnings), I expect MU will explode right after those expensive will expire ($1 options cost for Aug calls is ~5% cost per month!).
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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