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Martin Vlcek's  Instablog

Martin Vlcek
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Martin Vlcek is a full-time investor and analyst that has been actively investing and managing money for more than 15 years. His primary investment focus is on undervalued stocks with favorable risk to reward ratio and upcoming catalysts. Martin’s investment philosophy is to hold a highly... More
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  • My 2013 Growth Portfolio Performance: 113% Return

    General stock markets

    2013 was a spectacular year for many investors who were invested in the U.S. stock market. I consider 2013 to be an outlier and don't expect a 30% return for the broad U.S. S&P 500 stock index in 2014 but rather a +10% to -10% return, with +5% being the most probable outcome. However, a black-swan event is not out of question, so buying a partial cheap tail-risk protection is prudent this year.

    My growth portfolio performance in 2013

    My growth portfolio returned roughly 113% in 2013. My actual money-weighted return was "just" 88% due to cash deposits and withdrawals. I didn't try to time the deposits/withdrawals, I just moved the cash according to my personal needs. However, this just proves the obvious, that trying to time the market - whether intentionally or not - can hurt your performance. But it can improve your returns, too.

    2014 outlook

    For my personal portfolio, I expect much lower returns in 2014 and my strategy for this year includes protecting some of the spectacular percentage gains that I achieved in 2013.

    I also intend to position my 2014 investments more conservatively due to generally prevalent high market valuations that present a risk of a multiple market-wide pullbacks affecting majority of asset classes.

    (click to enlarge)

    My portfolio performance in 2014

    January 2014 started off with a sharp fall in my portfolio towards the end of the month. As of February 20, most of the January losses were recouped but I am still roughly 15% below the peak 2013 levels.

    Feb 20 1:28 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Quick 9% Profit From Blackberry

    A few hours ago I managed to buy 100 shares of BBRY at 8.25. I decided to decide later whether to buy more stock and which month and strike covered calls to sell. It turns out markets were faster:). Just a couple of hours later, BBRY buyout at $9 came out. I made a quick 9% profit, but missed the rapid time decay from collapsing covered calls volatility as I sold the covered call only now, after the announcement. I was expecting a longer time frame and a chance to add more stock as I free up resources.

    Percentagewise, not bad. But the total amount is small of course, based on the small size of my speculative account.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY.

    Tags: BBRY
    Sep 23 2:28 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Genesco Has Reached My Buy Target

    Genesco's shares dropped 10% on lowered 2014 EPS outlook. This makes Genesco a buy, following my July 2013 recommendation to wait for a pullback due to headwinds ahead:

    "Genesco is a very good company with an attractive and realistic 12% EPS growth forecast. Unfortunately, the stock is now fairly valued and faces many headwinds in the upcoming quarters despite the company's many positive moves. Due to these factors and the 10% discount that I recommend to demand for a downside protection, I advise investors to wait for at least a 7% pullback. This would make the stock a buy anywhere below $65."

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: GCO
    Aug 29 10:22 AM | Link | Comment!
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