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Martin Vlcek
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What I plan to offer in the Exclusive Research subscription service? In short, information tailored to your individual needs! Let me know what exactly you are looking for. I will do my best to provide it. Please send me an SA message. More info about me: Martin Vlcek is a full-time investor and... More
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  • My Monday Flash Crash Trades

    I knew prices were great, driven by panic selling exacerbated by margin calls and liquidity squeeze.

    Unfortunately, it took me some time to liquidate some of my M&A arbitrage positions that were not losing or hedges like FXE that were gaining money to free some funds to purchase beaten-down SVXY which fell below 50.

    So my average purchase price was not below 50, but still pretty close. I was selling puts anyway, so the price depends on the bid-ask spread a lot.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: SVXY, FXE, MEA, DARA
    Aug 29 10:01 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Exclusive Research Subscription Service

    My name is Martin Vlcek, and I've been a SeekingAlpha forum member for almost ten years and started writing SA articles in 2013. I have always focused on quality and the depth of analysis and niche areas.

    What I offer in the Exclusive Research subscription service?

    In short, it is entirely up to you! Make the most out of this service. Let me know what your needs are, and what exactly you are looking for. I will do my best to provide it. Please send me an SA message.

    What are your needs? How can I help you?

    I want to offer as much 1-on-1 service and experience as possible, tailored to the needs of each individual member. I have theoretical knowledge (CFA candidate, economic university education), as well as years of practical, corporate-employment experience in management, marketing, and product management positions (3M, T-Mobile, online marketing company, online startup founder, etc.). I have many years of real investing and trading experience, in addition to portfolio management.

    Specific areas of my expertise

    1. Small-cap stock analysis in general, with a focus on areas of my expertise, such as internet/social media, tech, telco, manufacturing, and startups.
    2. I live in Europe, so if there is demand from members, I can offer a unique analysis of European stocks and economic/political events, such as Greece.
    3. I manage a portfolio and, if a member is interested, will publish my completed, as well as intended, trades and their analysis. The portfolio includes many strategies, including: value, deep value, contrarian, volatility (options and VIX), futures contango, leveraged ETFs path-dependent decay, odd-lots, M&A risk arbitrage, SPACs, currency hedging, short squeezes, and more.
    4. I have extensive knowledge of options trading and will offer strategies to transform and manage the risk of the intended stock investment, as well as tools to compare various option trades on the same underlying to find the optimal execution strategy and the optimal time to roll the position.
    5. I will share with members my analytical tools I've developed, ranging from stock analysis and valuation scenarios to evaluating M&A spreads, odd-lots, probability-weighted scenarios, or a tool comparing time-weighted expected returns, and a tool for choosing the optimal strategy to execute a specific investment, when using options.
    6. Based on specific demand of a member, I also plan to offer a daily digest of information, stock screens, and more.
    7. The service will be mostly on-demand, so the specific content and analysis will depend on what you, as a member ask, for. But naturally, I will share my own best investment ideas as well.

    If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to contact me!

    Martin Vlcek

    Jul 26 4:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Why The Current Low Or Even Negative Interest Rates Make Perfect Sense

    There are at least 5 use cases that drive the current demand for negative yielding assets and don't make the investment a lock in loss.

    Nobody has a crystal ball and that's why the willingness to lend money at zero or negative *nominal* rates actually makes sense. If prolonged deflation (Japan style scenario in the U.S. and around the world) has a 10% probability of happening (just my guesstimate, you can use your own value), then it makes sense to allocate 10% of your assets to investments that will benefit from deflation to stay diversified and hedged at least a little. In deflation, even the low or negative *nominal* interest rates will make you money because the nominal inflation rate will be even lower (even more negative). So you will have positive *real* interest returns even while buying Treasuries at negative nominal interest rate levels.

    Second, there is huge demand for *future* spending and as a result severe lack of financial capacity for *current* spending. People are willing to get zero interest or even pay for the ability to transform current wealth into future spending (most retirees need exactly this). You can withdraw small sums into cash, earning zero nominal interest rate. But pension funds can't just withdraw all the money into cash, so negative nominal interest rates are possible. The low rates exacerbate the need to transform even more of current savings into future spending because retirees want to live off of yield (or dividend). With lower yields, they need to put aside higher nest egg to generate the same income. So the aim of lowering interest rates by central banks is exacerbating the problem.

    Third, the world, incl. the U.S. has some of the highest Gini coefficient rates compared to historical levels. This means inequality is very high. Inequality means more money is free, available for investing or playing around because you only need so much every month to spend on sensible things. Most people simply don't buy 100 cars even if they could afford it so the money goes to stock market, bonds, real estate and other investment assets. Rising average age and people living longer exacerbates the inequality problem (compounding by time)

    Fourth, as the debt bubble keeps growing, more and more future demand is consumed today, pulled from the future. This means there will be even lower demand in the future and that will keep inflation lower or negative and keeps inflation expectations low.

    There are many other reasons why low rates make sense at the moment. I didn't even begin describing the huge displacement of people by technology in the workforce (IT, software, apps, robots, drones, etc.) (exacerbated by low interest rates and cheap money). This means nominal (and real) wages are stagnant at best (real wages today are probably lower than 30 years ago in the U.S. and future expectations are not better). Real wages growth is one of the main factors that determines future inflation rates and interest rates.

    In summary, there are plenty of reasons why interest rates are low at the moment and why in nominal terms, they can easily be negative. It's the real interest rate that matters (nominal interest rate minus the nominal inflation rate).

    Tags: TLT
    May 11 6:14 PM | Link | 4 Comments
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  • Also some liquidation of long $TLT U.S. Treasuries, partly flowing into U.S. stocks, mostly Russel 2000 $IWM but also S&P 500 $SPY.
    Jan 26, 2015
  • I see liquidations of short $EUR and GBP positions but the money seems to be flowing to short YEN and CHF, so no end to long $USD trade
    Jan 26, 2015
  • Futures up almost 1% after a surprise rate cut by India CB. China surprise rate cut came last year at the same level of S&P dipping below 2k
    Jan 15, 2015
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