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Sequenom: A Reversal Of Misfortune
- Sequenom would need to rally 45% to retrace back to the January 2013 high.
- A Quest distribution agreement displaces Natera upon the release of a "Future Testing Service" . This appears to be the low cost NIPT on a new platform targeted for Q4.
- Cost cutting, discontinued unreimbursed Medicaid tests and the sale of the Bioscience segment provide sufficient capital to eliminate the risk of a dilutive capital raise in the foreseeable future.
- The international market is virtually untapped. The launch of a lower cost test at end of 2014 launched internationally by Quest and other local partners should increase revenue growth.
Market Outlook: Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening Poised For Significant Growth
- Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening generated US revenues of $200 million in 2013.
- The market opportunity for NIPS is estimated at $1.5 billion, growing to over $5 billion in 2018.
- Targeted screening at a lower price point is likely the key to expanding the market beyond high risk.
Sequenom 2013 Operating Results Review
- Accessions have slowed, but that doesn't mean the market opportunity has shrunk.
- Cash usage improvement supports achievement of positive cash flow by end of 2014.
- Cash on hand of $71m is probably enough.
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