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Marty Chilberg  

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  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Morgan Stanley analyst report out this morning
    Equal Weight with price target of $20
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Appreciate the information relative to new issue quiet periods. However, I'm surprised you don't refer to the S-8 just filed that provided some pretty negative guidance for NTRA. Their C15 revenue guidance is for Y/Y growth of 15%. However the top end guidance is equal to the Q1 quarter annualized representing no sequential growth for the remainder of the year. Worse, their spending guidance shows a deterioration in gross margin and an operating loss of over 40% for this year as compared to a loss of 13% in Q1. I'd be pretty cautious buying into this filing until I saw the analyst community weigh in with their initial reports.
    Jul 26, 2015. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    $NTRA just filed an 8k with guidance.
    C15 revenue $175-190m vs Q1 annualized of $190m
    C15 COGS of 65% vs Q1-15 of 52% suggests average sales prices are down substantially.
    C15 spending guidance: 65% COGS, 60% SG&A, 15-18% R&D means a projected operating loss of 40-43% of revenues.

    C16 revenue guidance of $220-240m or 26+% growth assumes robust adoption of Panorama in general popuation.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Stark Contrast Between iPad And Surface Sales [View article]
    I'm a little surprised you would take issue with the referenced article though I must admit to not reading it. The trend seems consistent with your table:
    AAPL Pad revenue declines:
    Q3-14 14%
    Q4-14 22%
    Q1-15 29%
    Q2-15 23%

    MSFT Surfact revenue increases:
    Q3-14 128%
    Q4-14 24%
    Q1-15 45%
    Q2-15 117%

    The trend appears clear analytically: AAPL is seeing declining iPad revenues. Surface is showing better acceptance with the release of ver 3. Is either trend predictive of future is definitely worth discussion and appreciate your thoughts.
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Experts say large, controlled studies will be needed, though. This month, the American Society of Clinical Oncology said it would launch a clinical trial of a dozen targeted drugs to see how they work when their use is guided by DNA tests. It’s also established a database to track treatment outcomes. The same day, the National Cancer Institute said it would launch a similar study of 20 drugs.

    ASCO/NCI clinical trial begins enrollment this month:
    Jul 22, 2015. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    #NIPT #Liquidbiopsy Replay link here:
    If you have problems with the slide video they suggest using the pdf until fixed
    Jul 22, 2015. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Dr Bianchi video on prenatal testing and incidental detection of Occult Maternal Malignancies here
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Hedgeye video on AthenaHealth $ATHN preview here, full report on july 23
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Nice Rock Health article reviewing the TeleDoc S-1. TDOC is one of the teleHealth virtual care platform providers that are likely to address the issue of genetic counseling for both NIPT and LB.

    Other companies to consider, especially ones that are providing a Platform as a Service that would help counselors and patients with the education component include: MD Live, Doctor on Demand, AthenaHealth, VirtuMedix, American Well and MDLive along with a large number of private or small competitors.
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Satya Nadella And Microsoft Are Starting To Gain My Respect [View article]
    Appreciate the perspective. I agree that Satya has been a breath of fresh air at Msft making concrete decisions that are forward thinking. I would argue however that the focus and productization of their advanced research group is going to be the critical contribution that still needs attention. There is so much excellent research in one of the worlds top 10 funded research organizations that hard to conceptualize. Whether it's image recognition in Adam or the depth of the artificial intelligence organization or the cool commercial outlook for Hololens if they can get the movement issue resolved. That's all in addition to the real competitive advantage which is their relationship to the enterprise built over the last 30 years. They are winning share in cloud mostly because of this relationship as Amazon Web Services is probably technically superior for now. This enterprise sales channel will be critical as the IoE unfolds and the data analytics and machine intelligence research bears fruit.

    If Satya can work his development magic into compelling products AND improve the marketing thereof, his contribution will be felt for quite some time.
    Jul 9, 2015. 06:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Biotechs In A Bubble? [View article]
    Price to book realistically is pretty meaningless in small cap bios. It's all about blockbuster potential. One of the strong tail winds in bios is the patent expiration of big pharma and their balancing act to maintain yield and stock buybacks. That leads to a lower investment in R&D so they look to the small cap bio arena almost as outsourced R&D.

    A much better measuring stick to ascertain whether there is a bubble in biotech would be to look at the annual value acquired by big pharma to see if the run up is causing a slowing in M&A. I haven't done any analysis along these lines but my bet is that the deal flow has not slowed.
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fort Meade: US Cyber Command [View instapost]
    Related links for DoD #cybersecurity spending
    Jul 1, 2015. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Will Never Make Money With WhatsApp [View article]
    Appreciate the article but I don't understand the investment conclusion. Perhaps as a deep value investor the attractiveness is limited to you but for most this is the best social investment around.
    Step 1) Grow MAU
    Step 2) Network effect increases the relative value of each active user
    Step 3) Monetize the traffic without creating a heavy churn

    Seems like they are on pace. 60% Y/Y increase in Whatsapp MAU occurred despite the cannibilization from Messenger. Did they pay too much? Perhaps so. Is FB an attractive investment today. Absolutely.
    - Performance metrics indicate they can be trusted to monetize MAU.- Revenue and earnings growth > 30%- C16 PE is only modestly higher than growth rate.- The $19b purchase price is a sunk cost and largely irrelevant to the current investment thesis.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stellar Fundamentals Obfuscated By Confusing Events At Ashford Hospitality Trust [View article]
    Excellent recap. Look forward to your analysis on the acquisitions.
    Jun 15, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    Press release out today. Partnership with SYMC to use Trusted Location to improve smartphone security for use in Connected Car, financial services and online gaming as discussed in interview.
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment