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Marty Chilberg  

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  • TeleCommunication Systems, Inc: A Constructive Q3 2015 [View instapost]
    TSYS agreed to be acquired by Comtech for $5 per share.
    Nov 23, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom: Q3 Another Disappointing Effort [View instapost]
    I'm more hopeful only because I've had an opportunity to meet Dirk and I spent many years in technology companies that were fun by technology geeks that had to learn the business by hiring the best talent around them. I have no problem with a scientist or technologist being in charge but their approach to building the business foundation starts with focus and team. This transitiion has to be a short one given the pace of change that is likely to occur next year. I suspect that we will know much more by the January JP Morgan conference as to who the permanent CEO is and what strategic changes are to occur.

    Having said all that, I can't say I'm optimistic in general because history with SQNM has show us that they don't seemingly care about the business of diagnostics and won't replace poor performers wiith outstanding leaders to build the competency
    Nov 19, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom: Q3 Another Disappointing Effort [View instapost]
    Well thought out. I expect them to not only cut costs but to reallocate some to address needs such as building a field presence that is approapriate for the OB/GYN channel that will be the conduit for growth in the future. Lots of possibilities in this arena with a serious tail wind poised to start blowing. They just need to get prepared and learn the basics of commercialization and shareholder value creation.
    Nov 17, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone lower as Citi throws in the towel [View news story]
    Late analyst downgrades are almost always a counter indicator
    Nov 9, 2015. 11:47 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skyworks: Strong Guidance, Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Agree with the conclusion. Might be useful to add in Yield in the valuation table. It helps explain why INTC or QCOM is higher while distinguising SWKS from NXPI who has yet to initiate dividends.
    Nov 6, 2015. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau Software beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Exceptional results from DATA. Call starts at 4:30
    Nov 5, 2015. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Freeport Is A Fool's Game [View article]
    Supply/Demand for the commodity. Same with Crude. Cut production and exploration for any commodity that is oversupplied and the cycle appears to be close to or at a reversal point. The hardest challenge is to determine the winners and losers based upon balance sheet and ability to satisfy debt load. One of the better analysts in the energy sector is also convinced that crude is in a bottoming process. He also states that the E&P players will simplistically fall in to thirds: 1/3 will go bankrupt. 1/3 will survive after serious restructuring. 1/3 will be the winners that emerge with improved proven reserves acquired on the cheap. His prediction is there will be inadequate supplies at the end of this cycle but likely won't occur until C17.
    Oct 25, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Arrogance Of Tech [View article]
    Disruptive innovation is what technology companies do. Collision avoidance systems and automatic braking systems came from outside the auto industry. Navigation systems were not an automotive creation despite the obvious application. Voice interface for controls for in car systems again were designed elsewhere. Why is QNX not owned by a car company instead of Blackberry? Intermittent windshield wiper systems were created elsewhere and Ford tried for years to avoid paying royalties when they just reverse engineered it.

    Much of the sensor/radar/lasar systems that are being developed came out of aerospace which is not an automotive core competency. Rather than having a dozen car companies trying to create duplicative solutions that would very likely be inferior, I'd much prefer to see a third party create a neutral solution and work with the car companies to integrate .
    Oct 20, 2015. 09:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soft Q3 RevPAR growth for Ashford Hospitality [View news story]
    Disappointing journalism. Pick a headline that buries the story. They were able to achieve RevPar (similar to same store sales incr) of 5% in spite of the calendar. For a company with <3 PE so and a 7% yield, this is solid quarter which was totally missed by the editor. Powerpoint should be on website with prelim results today
    Oct 20, 2015. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs: Moats Are Not Forever [View article]
    Outsourcing has been a multi-decade trend and there is no sign that this is letting up domestically. Outsourcing your data center is consistent with that trend. The 2nd data center trend that even dwarfs outsourcing is the amount of data being generated by everything from genetic biomarkers to IoE sensors to connectedhealth. Those two tail winds for data centers are clear and unquestioned.

    Even ignoring those tail winds the argument that data center REITs may become obsolete because of technology changes is a bit myopic Companies are not going to decide to come inhouse because technology changes. Quite the contrary. They outsource because they don't want that headache and cost which argues for outsourcing. So the only way a competitor comes along and steals the market from established players like DLR is to identify the shift and create their own footprint of data centers. The larger the competitor, the more expensive and difficult that challenge becomes. Infrastructural/Locati... moats are not insignificant as compared to your Kodak example. Replacing a scalable technology is much more disruptive than buying newer servers or installing better software on existing servers in hundreds of data centers.
    Sep 18, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natera: Morgan Stanley Initiates With Equal Weight Rating [View instapost]
    Forward guidance was restated by company on call last night. operating loss about in line though share count used was proforma which made headlines far worse. Real issue is margin but as the Morgan numbers show, this was expected. Still makes the valuation very questionable with increasing losses and cash burn expected for the foreseeable future.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    $NTRA Q2 released last night. Mostly consistent with analyst expectations aside from share count (GAAP vs proforma). Real issue was margin erosion. Dropped again to 43% with forward guidance of 26% in 2H. Bad combination of accelerating ASP declines and increasing cost of good sold.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Company came in about where the Morgan Stanley predicted on operating loss and revenues. Loss per share numbers were dramatically off due to number of shares used for GAAP vs the pro forma info in consensus. Made the headlines look far worse.

    The selloff today though is all about the declining margin IMO. Company has the following margin trend:
    Q4-14 55%
    Q1-15 48%
    Q2-15 43%

    Worse the 2H guidance using the company C15 35% margin indicates an expected decline to 26% for the rest of the year. Reason noted is declining ASP per test and increasing cost per test despite volume increase expectations.

    Main 2H driver is going in-network with reimbursements declining and the govt payor price erosion continuing from the 1/1/15 CPT code issued.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom June 2015 Results: Another Hit From Transition To Pool [View instapost]
    For clarity purposes the lag in reporting revenue from the IP Pool is as follows:

    1) The vast majority of licensees will be administered by ILMN.
    2) Most of ILMN licensees report on a cash basis which delays their reporting to ILMN until cash is received.
    3) ILMN issues report 45 days after quarter end.

    Example: Most labs bill insurance for tests processed on behalf of the patient. If a test was processed in May, collection of the test is likely a June or July event. If June, it gets reported to ILMN who includes it in their June quarter report to SQNM due 45 days after the quarter ends on 8/15.

    In reality the international labs are likely lagged MORE than 90 days while the domestic labs (LabCorp) are likely much more timely and could be on accrual basis.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom June 2015 Results: Another Hit From Transition To Pool [View instapost]
    Blair did a good job explaining the complexity of this transition to a licensing model and how it is a long term benefit
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment