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Marty Chilberg  

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  • Celldex: An Immuno-Oncology Play With Monster Potential [View article]
    There are some clear differences between CLDX and NWBO that any investor should consider.

    Cash
    CLDX $201m
    NWBO $14M

    Debt
    CLDX none
    NWBO $70m

    Last quarter FCF
    CLDX $(22m)
    NWBO $(30m)

    I'd argue that CLDX was far less risky when you consider the burn and balance sheet along with the state of the data released. CLDX is more advanced in their pipeline/trials and has about 9 quarters of cash burn at today's spend level. NWBO would need to raise over $300m to put themselves in a similar position (pay off debt/cash runway of 9 quarters). That would dilute shareholders by around 60% if my quick math is close.
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rampant Mispricing Makes Specialty REITs An Interesting Space [View article]
    Excellent overview article. Market is so afraid of rising interest rates that high yield has become out of favor years in advance of the reality.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye rallies after Q4 beat, solid guidance (updated) [View news story]
    Drop in Q4 FCF is the only reason I can see for a selloff. I'm buying in on weakness as operating trends and guidance is solid
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For TeleCommunication Systems? [View article]
    Appreciate the thoughtful article. $TSYS appears to finally be turning the around operationally but having the activists involved should tend to accelerate the changes that are still needed. A couple perspectives from my analysis of TSYS:

    1) IP is definitely not fully valued in the market cap but I'm not basing my investment decision on that changing any time soon. In my mind, the IP will be more appropriately valued in one of three ways which are not short term: Sale or breakup of company (highly unlikely), Improved growth where IP is strong driving up the "moat" value, monetization (per cc, slowing in C15). Investors should note that this value is real but unlikely to be embraced in the market cap in the short term.

    2) The operating expense load for TSYS is not only too high, but not appropriately allocated based upon the business IMO, both of which provide opportunities for activism to create shareholder value. It was very unfortunate that the company missed the opportunity to generate synergies through acquisitions by consolidating some functions and cut costs. Now we see variable G&A (excl depr) at 14% when it should be closer to 5% for a well run fine-tuned operation. They have increased R&D spend which feels right given the number of investment initiatives they are involved in. S&M is not high enough IMO and I suspect is too heavily geared toward govt. Commercial success, especially in new markets such as connected cars, connected health will require marketing funds and a 7% spend rate all in is not adequate to take advantage of these opportunities. Getting total opex to under 30% while increasing S&M over 10% would feel far more compelling IMO.

    3) The company still appears far too focused on govt segment as opposed to commercial. While govt is important for lots of reasons, the volatility and margins should work to refocus management on the growth opportunities in commercial segment to a larger degree.

    Having said that, it appears pretty clear that this company is undervalued and is in the process of turning the corner. Thanks again for the article.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    No disagreement here. I asked a couple questions along those lines but didn't get much substance in response. Still a "show me" in many ways but like the direction
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    FDA first glucose monitoring approval.
    http://1.usa.gov/1BrHN0g
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom's VisibiliT Has A Huge Opportunity In Replacing The First Trimester Screen [View article]
    SQNM has consistently stated that approximately 8% of the US is self-pay. That data was based upon payment of hospital births. If the overall birth market is 8% self pay, it stands to reason that this percentage of the population that would self pay would increase when there is no coverage option available aside from a much less effective serum screen.
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    Looking for next company for #IAQ article series. Recommendations welcome
    Jan 25, 2015. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TeleCommunication Systems, Inc (TSYS) The Pillars Of Opportunity [View instapost]
    #emedicine #telehealth #mHealth Also see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TeleCommunication Systems, Inc (TSYS) The Pillars Of Opportunity [View instapost]
    #emedicine #telehealth #mHealth Also see:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telehealth Survey: Harris Poll Confirms Waiting Is OK [View instapost]
    Survey interest in #telehealth. $TSYS launch timely: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Medicine Is In Your Smartphone [View instapost]
    $TSYS work on Connected Car and Connected Health anticipate Smartphone diagnostics. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hospitals Likely To Be Cyberattack Targets In 2015 [View instapost]
    $TSYS looking to work with Kimball to provide secure Connected Health. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 24, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    Thanks for the reference. I'll check $OPRX out!
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Growth Is Gone, Why Own Facebook? [View article]
    Curious why you would use the consensus per NASD where only 13 analyst estimates are used? Businessweek site has 42 analysts with a consensus for C15 of $2.02 http://buswk.co/1DZOPKr

    Yahoo has 48 analyst estimates with a consensus of $1.91 http://yhoo.it/1gy6S0H

    Seems like either would be better source than a small subset that are over 30% lower in their view and would certainly change the valuation perspective.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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