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Marty Chilberg  

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  • Microsoft Earnings Preview [View article]
    The beauty of this quarter for $MSFT is that they have set the bar low again for the next 2 quarters but with the beat the street is largely ignoring. Helped that Rick Sherland came out this AM with an upgrade to buy and said he would revisit price target of $50 after Build
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Earnings Preview [View article]
    Thanks but perhaps premature still. I need to listen to call and look at Azure growth vs AMZN disclosures and get a feel for guidance. The Surface revenue was surprisingly good and Xbox solid as well but haven't dug in yet. Feels like $50 will be a hard nut to crack
    Apr 23, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Earnings Preview [View article]
    Very solid release $MSFT. Waiting for guidance. Likely soft with FX headwinds and the July Windows launch leading to channel draw down and some deferrals for free upgrades.
    Apr 23, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Earnings Preview [View article]
    MSFT may not be growing earnings this year but the 17x trailing multiple incorporates that known. Earnings cycles come and go just like this one will. XP comps hurt this year and this year comps will make F16 look better with upgrade cycle. Analysts peg the 5 yr secular growth at around 7.5% which seems reasonable and is consistent with my first comment.
    - Market has a higher multiple that 17x.
    - Market doesn't pay 3%
    - Fcst GDP is negative this quarter so the S&P multiple incorporates that view as well.

    GL but Msft valuation is reasonable.
    Apr 23, 2015. 01:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Earnings Preview [View article]
    Not sure how the conclusion works unless you believe the overall market is overvalued. $MSFT trailing PE is 17x which is below the S&P500. Their yield is 3% which is above the S&P500. And their growth rate is while well below historical levels is still quite robust compared with GDP or the S&P500 growth.

    MSFT appears fairly priced for this interest rate/valuation environment given these comps in addition to their fortress balance sheet.
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:07 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Mispriced And Positioned For IoT Growth [View article]
    Agreed. i posted it as a objective piece on how the #IoT trend would provide an opportunity for low cost semis could see incremental growth....And my perspective is that $INTC is well positioned given their size and cost structure to capitalize. Companies that are focused on higher performance such as $QCOM don't seem similarly situated.

    To me the bigger opportunity in #IoT is wireless everywhere, #sensors and #preciselocation or #indoorlocation platform providers, but I do see it being a tailwind for INTC.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Mispriced And Positioned For IoT Growth [View article]
    Low cost is the biggest advantage:
    Per GS report here

    Semiconductors are found in the most mundane devices nowadays from children’s toys to bottle openers. In the age of the IoT, look
    for an even greater proliferation as devices rely on an increasing number of chips working in tandem to collect, process and
    communicate data. We see the biggest growth in sensors and low-cost microcontrollers.
     Sensors. Sensors have outgrown other semiconductor units by five percentage points over the last two years, and we expect
    that trend to continue as they proliferate. IoT devices lean heavily on image, motion, touch and environment sensors, along
    with so-called sensor hubs to manage the sensor traffic and reduce the workload on the central processor to save battery life.
     Connectivity. Just as with CommTech, connectivity will drive the use of semiconductors to manage the communications,
    driven by Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, ZigBee, NFC, and other IoT standards.
     Cheap brains: More devices will use microcontrollers or low-cost microprocessors given their lower price points and power
    requirements relative to traditional semiconductor architecture.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celladon: A Good Deal, And A Rare Buy-Write Opportunity [View article]
    CLDN has filed a shelf registration for an additional 7m shs which implies they will raise additional cash if the data is solid and the stock spikes.

    Writers of the covered call should look hard at the various strike prices. For instance by giving up $1-1.50 of premium you can move the May strike from $25 to $35. Pretty good risk/reward to raise ceiling $10 for such a modest premium reduction.
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insys Therapeutics Inc. Poised For Strong Growth In Earnings Ahead [View article]
    FYI guidance out on abuse deterrent opiod labeling
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celldex: An Immuno-Oncology Play With Monster Potential [View article]
    Excellent point. I made the same mistake, comparing y/e info for both companies. Not only did $CLDX raise an addl $180+m but they have effectively established a short term floor for the stock that subscribers should support at $24.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celldex: An Immuno-Oncology Play With Monster Potential [View article]
    There are some clear differences between CLDX and NWBO that any investor should consider.

    CLDX $201m
    NWBO $14M

    CLDX none
    NWBO $70m

    Last quarter FCF
    CLDX $(22m)
    NWBO $(30m)

    I'd argue that CLDX was far less risky when you consider the burn and balance sheet along with the state of the data released. CLDX is more advanced in their pipeline/trials and has about 9 quarters of cash burn at today's spend level. NWBO would need to raise over $300m to put themselves in a similar position (pay off debt/cash runway of 9 quarters). That would dilute shareholders by around 60% if my quick math is close.
    Mar 30, 2015. 07:01 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rampant Mispricing Makes Specialty REITs An Interesting Space [View article]
    Excellent overview article. Market is so afraid of rising interest rates that high yield has become out of favor years in advance of the reality.
    Mar 26, 2015. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobileye rallies after Q4 beat, solid guidance (updated) [View news story]
    Drop in Q4 FCF is the only reason I can see for a selloff. I'm buying in on weakness as operating trends and guidance is solid
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For TeleCommunication Systems? [View article]
    Appreciate the thoughtful article. $TSYS appears to finally be turning the around operationally but having the activists involved should tend to accelerate the changes that are still needed. A couple perspectives from my analysis of TSYS:

    1) IP is definitely not fully valued in the market cap but I'm not basing my investment decision on that changing any time soon. In my mind, the IP will be more appropriately valued in one of three ways which are not short term: Sale or breakup of company (highly unlikely), Improved growth where IP is strong driving up the "moat" value, monetization (per cc, slowing in C15). Investors should note that this value is real but unlikely to be embraced in the market cap in the short term.

    2) The operating expense load for TSYS is not only too high, but not appropriately allocated based upon the business IMO, both of which provide opportunities for activism to create shareholder value. It was very unfortunate that the company missed the opportunity to generate synergies through acquisitions by consolidating some functions and cut costs. Now we see variable G&A (excl depr) at 14% when it should be closer to 5% for a well run fine-tuned operation. They have increased R&D spend which feels right given the number of investment initiatives they are involved in. S&M is not high enough IMO and I suspect is too heavily geared toward govt. Commercial success, especially in new markets such as connected cars, connected health will require marketing funds and a 7% spend rate all in is not adequate to take advantage of these opportunities. Getting total opex to under 30% while increasing S&M over 10% would feel far more compelling IMO.

    3) The company still appears far too focused on govt segment as opposed to commercial. While govt is important for lots of reasons, the volatility and margins should work to refocus management on the growth opportunities in commercial segment to a larger degree.

    Having said that, it appears pretty clear that this company is undervalued and is in the process of turning the corner. Thanks again for the article.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Infrequently Asked Questions: TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [View article]
    No disagreement here. I asked a couple questions along those lines but didn't get much substance in response. Still a "show me" in many ways but like the direction
    Jan 30, 2015. 03:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment