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Marty Chilberg  

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  • Natera: Morgan Stanley Initiates With Equal Weight Rating [View instapost]
    Forward guidance was restated by company on call last night. operating loss about in line though share count used was proforma which made headlines far worse. Real issue is margin but as the Morgan numbers show, this was expected. Still makes the valuation very questionable with increasing losses and cash burn expected for the foreseeable future.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    $NTRA Q2 released last night. Mostly consistent with analyst expectations aside from share count (GAAP vs proforma). Real issue was margin erosion. Dropped again to 43% with forward guidance of 26% in 2H. Bad combination of accelerating ASP declines and increasing cost of good sold.
    Aug 13, 2015. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Company came in about where the Morgan Stanley predicted on operating loss and revenues. Loss per share numbers were dramatically off due to number of shares used for GAAP vs the pro forma info in consensus. Made the headlines look far worse.

    The selloff today though is all about the declining margin IMO. Company has the following margin trend:
    Q4-14 55%
    Q1-15 48%
    Q2-15 43%

    Worse the 2H guidance using the company C15 35% margin indicates an expected decline to 26% for the rest of the year. Reason noted is declining ASP per test and increasing cost per test despite volume increase expectations.

    Main 2H driver is going in-network with reimbursements declining and the govt payor price erosion continuing from the 1/1/15 CPT code issued.
    Aug 13, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom June 2015 Results: Another Hit From Transition To Pool [View instapost]
    For clarity purposes the lag in reporting revenue from the IP Pool is as follows:

    1) The vast majority of licensees will be administered by ILMN.
    2) Most of ILMN licensees report on a cash basis which delays their reporting to ILMN until cash is received.
    3) ILMN issues report 45 days after quarter end.

    Example: Most labs bill insurance for tests processed on behalf of the patient. If a test was processed in May, collection of the test is likely a June or July event. If June, it gets reported to ILMN who includes it in their June quarter report to SQNM due 45 days after the quarter ends on 8/15.

    In reality the international labs are likely lagged MORE than 90 days while the domestic labs (LabCorp) are likely much more timely and could be on accrual basis.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sequenom June 2015 Results: Another Hit From Transition To Pool [View instapost]
    Blair did a good job explaining the complexity of this transition to a licensing model and how it is a long term benefit
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Kinder Morgan's Distributable Cash Flow As Of 2Q 2015 [View article]
    I agree with your perspective. I thought about going back and analyzing data to try to confirm or refute some of the DCF adjustments, but decided that the coverage ratio of .96 for the 9mth period was sufficient given it included reductions to management calculations that were made primarily because the author didn't have clarity what they represented. Getting .96 coverage in this trailing 9mth period given the volatility and carnage seems relatively benign as a conservative calculation given the recent 25% pullback. ALso long KMI
    Aug 3, 2015. 08:18 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Morgan Stanley analyst report out this morning
    Equal Weight with price target of $20
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Quiet Period Expiration: Natera [View article]
    Appreciate the information relative to new issue quiet periods. However, I'm surprised you don't refer to the S-8 just filed that provided some pretty negative guidance for NTRA. Their C15 revenue guidance is for Y/Y growth of 15%. However the top end guidance is equal to the Q1 quarter annualized representing no sequential growth for the remainder of the year. Worse, their spending guidance shows a deterioration in gross margin and an operating loss of over 40% for this year as compared to a loss of 13% in Q1. I'd be pretty cautious buying into this filing until I saw the analyst community weigh in with their initial reports.
    Jul 26, 2015. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    $NTRA just filed an 8k with guidance.
    C15 revenue $175-190m vs Q1 annualized of $190m
    C15 COGS of 65% vs Q1-15 of 52% suggests average sales prices are down substantially.
    C15 spending guidance: 65% COGS, 60% SG&A, 15-18% R&D means a projected operating loss of 40-43% of revenues.

    C16 revenue guidance of $220-240m or 26+% growth assumes robust adoption of Panorama in general popuation.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Stark Contrast Between iPad And Surface Sales [View article]
    I'm a little surprised you would take issue with the referenced article though I must admit to not reading it. The trend seems consistent with your table:
    AAPL Pad revenue declines:
    Q3-14 14%
    Q4-14 22%
    Q1-15 29%
    Q2-15 23%

    MSFT Surfact revenue increases:
    Q3-14 128%
    Q4-14 24%
    Q1-15 45%
    Q2-15 117%

    The trend appears clear analytically: AAPL is seeing declining iPad revenues. Surface is showing better acceptance with the release of ver 3. Is either trend predictive of future is definitely worth discussion and appreciate your thoughts.
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Experts say large, controlled studies will be needed, though. This month, the American Society of Clinical Oncology said it would launch a clinical trial of a dozen targeted drugs to see how they work when their use is guided by DNA tests. It’s also established a database to track treatment outcomes. The same day, the National Cancer Institute said it would launch a similar study of 20 drugs.

    ASCO/NCI clinical trial begins enrollment this month: http://bit.ly/1Jz4voL
    Jul 22, 2015. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    #NIPT #Liquidbiopsy Replay link here: http://bit.ly/1VwCSFW
    If you have problems with the slide video they suggest using the pdf until fixed
    Jul 22, 2015. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Dr Bianchi video on prenatal testing and incidental detection of Occult Maternal Malignancies here
    http://bit.ly/1TCo5b5
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Hedgeye video on AthenaHealth $ATHN preview here, full report on july 23
    http://bit.ly/1O4YpQK
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIPT: The Poster Child For Liquid Biopsy [View article]
    Nice Rock Health article reviewing the TeleDoc S-1. TDOC is one of the teleHealth virtual care platform providers that are likely to address the issue of genetic counseling for both NIPT and LB. http://bit.ly/1CCNgWL

    Other companies to consider, especially ones that are providing a Platform as a Service that would help counselors and patients with the education component include: MD Live, Doctor on Demand, AthenaHealth, VirtuMedix, American Well and MDLive along with a large number of private or small competitors.
    Jul 14, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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