Marvin Clark

Boo!: October 30, day of the dead on Wall Street

Thanks, Michael. Rule # 1 when writing - entertain yourself.


On Nov 01 08:02 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Marvin: I really enjoy your posts. Always wonderfully written, with
> so much wisdom and wit.

Boo!: October 30, day of the dead on Wall Street

Replacing a 13 trillion dollar economy, driven 70% by consumer spending, is easier said than done.


On Nov 01 09:58 AM Ricard wrote:

> "How do you persuade companies to build things for customers they
> have recently laid and will not rehire anytime soon?"
>
> Find new customers (overseas). Companies do not need persuading
> - they merely need freedom to search for opportunity.

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

That may be your opinion of Volcker, however, he did engineer a decline in inflation in the 1980s. This will become our next battle.


On Oct 20 03:30 PM flow5 wrote:

> You are obviously ignorant of Volckers record as Chairman of the
> Federal Reserve Board. He is a bad leader and an incompetent economist.

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

Excellent. If you can figure out how to ban the Chicago boys' economic policy from our economy, I will personally nominate you for a Nobel Prize.


On Oct 19 10:37 AM Ransome wrote:

> I'm thinking the deposit banks are not up for paying more interest
> on deposits. This may be a poor reason to hold rates down but it
> could push them over the edge. The flow of money is chasing short
> term returns instead of long term investment. Goldman is going gangbusters
> because they can borrow short and invest short. Deposit banks can
> not do that. If interest rates climb and the deposit banks don't
> respond, money will flow like a river out of the banks. This is
> a big experiment in financial capitalism where moving money for short
> term gains becomes 40% of GDP, replacing industrial capitalism which
> is now less than 10% and agriculture which is 1%. The Fed is captured.
>
>
> Look at the stock market, we no longer value companies, we play the
> pricing spread, the asymmetric information spread, not the value
> spread. Everyone is a crook because there is so much money to be
> made the fast way. It is almost beyond regulation. Besides, this
> money generated by financial capitalism is kept from the so called
> "productive forces" that make a society and a national economy strong.
> People seeking Alpha don't want to hear this, but the productive
> forces are so weak, you can't even give money away. Without productive
> forces, money becomes valueless, hence the move into gold. You don't
> need burning inflation to destroy the value of money. I'm sure we
> will muddle through until the next collapse because financial capitalism
> is not sustainable by itself.
>
> We fueled the productive forces in Asia, weakened the productive
> forces at home, while fueling the speculators at home. The bailout
> further damaged the weakened productive forces at home and bailed
> out the speculators. This is why we need Volcker, Bair and Warren.
> I think they understand.
>
> The monetarists and the Chicago School must be banned from the economy
> and take Harvard while you are at it as they are a big promoter of
> financial capitalism, the economic Nosferatu that drains energy from
> the productive forces. Warren must have been considered an Alien
> from Outer Space at Harvard as she did not support borrow and spend
> nor debt till you drop.

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

Blinder is a good choice. Not a fan of Summers, either.


On Oct 19 10:32 AM Economic Darwinism wrote:

> I like the general idea here, but in June, I made my own recommendations
> for reappointments that I still stand by.
>
> economicdarwinism.word.../
>
>
> It has Volcker as the Director of the National Economic Council,
> brings in Blinder to head the Fed, and Summers as the Treasury Secretary
> (mostly because he's running it anyway).

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

That's why I'm long GLD. It seems we forgot how to do the right thing in DC, a long time ago.


On Oct 19 09:06 AM phdinsuntanning wrote:

> Marvin, smart message, trust the skinny boy notice and daboyz not
> looking. Take care with paper gld & slv. It will be burned if
> Paul V goes there, very hard I gues, but keep dreaming, cheers.

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

We only need Paul for 18-24 months; not an entire career.


On Oct 19 10:11 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> The biggest concern is Paul's advancing years, but lets face it even
> a corpse would be better than Bernanke.

Fourth Quarter Outlook: Become a gold bug, now

Thanks, Michael. You always add terrific points to articles.


On Oct 05 08:13 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Marvin: Have to agree with everything you have written in this post.
> America has lost prestige in the world for many reasons -- arrogance,
> hubris, deception ('the Master's of the Universe' sort of explains
> this) -- and we are due for a period of withdrawal so that we can
> try to find our true principles again. What made America great?
> It was NOT greed, theft, and political arrogance. If we want to
> be respected again, we are going to need to try to remember the best
> parts of our national character. Hard work, saving, conservative
> banking, a healthy US Dollar...all the things the current governments
> (Republican and Democratic) seem to look upon with disdain.

Fourth Quarter Outlook: Become a gold bug, now

With all of our imperfections and stumbles we were still the engine of the 20th century. Let's hope we regain our footing and continue to lead in the 21st century.


On Oct 05 09:11 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> We're going to find ourselves in a spot now that we will hate to
> be in....but it will be good for us. If it doesn't kill you it makes
> you stronger....it's character-building time (to fuse together a
> couple of cliches). The American Dream is about a lot more than
> being the rich kid in town, the King of the Hill. We need to discover
> a few more dimensions to life than just accumulating materiality
> endlessly. We have a good foundation -- we've just strayed a long
> way from our foundation, and we've forgotten who we are, confusing
> money and power with decency and community. Money and power are
> real and seductive and give us freedom to form an isolated focused
> vision; but decency and community are the other half of this whole.
> We haven't been very human lately. Money and power makes us believe
> we are gods; but the loss of money and power will help us re-discover
> our decency and our community. Maybe we'll even know who are neighbors
> are, when this descent is completed.
>
> We are sailing on a boat; and now the boat is flowing downstream.
>

Deregulation Is Good, But Regulatory Oversight Is Necessary

This is a valid theoretical exercise, delineating regulation from supervision, however, in the real world, you are advocating man conquering his own human frailties, in the world of finance, money and power; good luck with that endeavor. As an optimistic pragmatist, I believe human creativity can overcome all prudent regulation and supervision. Man and his wealth evolved quite nicely from the beginning to the end of Glass-Steagall.

The Chinese Minsky Ladder Gets Its First Broken Rung

If the contraction in exports persists it will only be a matter of time before the Chinese government cannibalize their US treasury holdings for short-term liquidity. Furthermore, their leverage over our treasury auctions will reduce size announcements by Treasury to customized orders for China's consumption like a Burger King ad - have it your way; special orders don't upset us.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Let's not forget that the stock market has increasingly become a casino detached from the economy. The severe market drop in 2008 was the market's fear of the soured credit markets. The same macroeconomic trends, that existed in 2008, are in place in 2009 yet the major averages up some 50% from the March lows.

Once the intoxication of cash and momentum wears off, this market will head lower. The continuing contraction in the economy will exacerbate the next leg down, too. The next decade will witness the S&P 500 bounce between 600 and 1,500 several times.

California Won't Even Accept Its Own IOUs

Unfortunately, you are correct. The next bookmark in American history will be the collapse of the twin financial towers: California and New York. For California, the richest state in the union, this is more of a political crisis than a financial. But, it is reaching a point of no return in easily fixing the problem.

Cha-Ching: Microsoft Pays Users to Search with Bing

Great tip. Thanks for the heads up.

Gary Shilling: U.S. Economic Growth over Next Decade Will Be Slow

A more succinct way for Gary Shilling to say it is a service-based economy with falling wages and disposable income and high debt has a bleak future.