Marvin Clark

Perkins' 'Hoodwinked' Offers Solutions to the Economic Crisis

In the good old days,capitalism was predatory, and, I had less of a problem with it than today's parasitic capitalism, which is perfectly willing to destroy its host body (the US economy) and any individual entity not on the right side of every
trade

. Predatory Capitalism allowed an individual to opt-out of playing the game. Parasitic Capitalism doesn't give an individual or single entity a choice.

Reich: Don't Expect Lost U.S. Jobs to Return

A more succinct way of describing this environment is: we have moved past the post-WWII American economy. We are standing firmly in the 21st century. The 20th century and 20th century jobs will not return.

Bend it like Beckham, Mr. President

You buy straw-hats in January.


On Nov 30 03:34 AM Tekatl wrote:

> I see the administration currently is in hiding, so much for transparency.
> They are also partying, the recent lavish state dinner as an example,
> enjoying it while they can in the White House. In the meantime, it's
> real funny that on local levels, past decisions that really brought
> in a lot of tax revenues such as restricted bar hours are now on
> the brinks of being overturned, while local and state governments
> struggle with budget dilemmas. Expect the same to happen in DC, they
> will probably forgive all illegals in the US, that are left, and
> extend citizenship to capture needed tax moneys. Think of anything
> that can be done to increase falling tax revenues and it will soon
> happen in desperation. I doubt that anyone will want to pay for citizenship,
> but they will probably give it a try in desperation; however, with
> the threat of increased taxes, especially for the ones that we really
> need with the Centurion Cards and SAT acing children, very doubtful
> with the tax increase possibility and nothing in return. Furthermore,
> as an example with the local and state governments facing budget
> concerns, why would anyone want to come here with an already existing
> infrastructure that is of concern that are just going to be neglected
> with decreasing state tax revenues. I am betting that there is more
> an exodus of wealth from the US, the wealthy make moves based on
> "how will it affect my pocket" and are far better at managing their
> money and can afford to move to safer places for the sake of their
> money, Australia is looking good btw. I just don't think it will
> be here with all our current woes, maybe one year when this somehow
> blows over.

Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium

Perhaps, you did not hear about the tortilla riots in 2007, in Mexico. The supply/demand curve pushed outward and prices jumped 400%. Besides the price of corn, think of the water growing crops consume and finite farmland it requires.


On Nov 30 03:14 PM nakedjaybird wrote:

> Marvin Clark - well, that was a little harsh. Let me start by saying
> not all (if any) biofuel has to come from corn that would instead
> fill your belly.

Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium

John, I have complete faith in the right technology. As a child of the 1950s and 1960s, I marveled at the evolution of science and technology in solving real impediments to landing a man on the moon and returning him safely back to earth. Our concepts of energy and transportation and how we organize travel and shipping is required. Vacuum-tube theory won WWII but transistor-theory and solid-state circuitry enabled man to reach the heavens. One of the many dividends it paid was the microprocessor chip and the computer industry. Chasing the granularity of existing technology is insufficient in solving the energy question.


On Nov 30 03:09 PM John Petersen wrote:

> <img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">
>
>
> Sam, your numbers change the per vehicle CO2 emissions significantly
> but by the time you turn the crank on the overall CO2 emissions you
> still end up with savings of 81,250 tons for BEV, 121,875 tons for
> PHEV and 692,308 tons for HEV. So even under optimal circumstances,
> the GEVs are less than 1/5th as efficient.
>
> Nakedjaybird, biofuel is fun in the talking but problematic when
> it comes to finding enough crop land for both food and fuel. Our
> adventures in Ethanol had a tremendous adverse impact on global prices
> and while algae shows a good deal of promise, it's not ready yet.
> We've already accumulated 10 years experience with HEVs and know
> they work well. Under the circumstances the benefits of ramping production
> of Prius class cars are too important to overlook. It's probably
> not the be all and end all, but it can be a darned important baby
> step.
>
> rrbatch, in this one I've tried to stay away from the user dynamics
> of GEVs and focus solely on the macro policy issues at the national
> level. I'm fully aware that there is no silver bullet solution that
> fits all needs. We have to stop looking for one size fits all solutions
> and do anything and everything that makes sense.
>
> Marvin, with six billion people who have gotten the memo and know
> there is more to life than subsistence, our biggest challenge is
> finding relevant scale solutions to global shortages of water, food,
> energy and every commodity you can name. Technical solutions that
> reduce waste are to be pursued. Feel good ideas that merely waste
> something else (and in the case of GEVs far scarcer) can only lead
> to tears.

Economic Recovery? Commodity Charts Don't Think So

This is an excellent observation of commodity prices and its relationship to speculation and end-user demand. We will know if your theory is correct in a few months.

Lithium Ion Batteries and GEVs: False Gods for the New Millennium

John, using bio-fuels to discredit EV technology is poor salesmanship. Taking food out of the bellies of the poorest of people (corn) to drive SUVs was a dumb idea to start with.

If energy policy in the US is serious about electric vehicles,why is everyone assuming refilling stations must only be found in owners homes or at work. Why not design cars that can swap out batteries at battery carousel centers (gas stations for the liquid stuff) in two minutes, and let drivers be on their way?

I do not know what the final answer will be, however, petroleum-based energy solutions replaced whale blubber. Can't we move beyond 1859 technology in 2009?

I hope so.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

You are correct. Our U-3 and U-6 Unemployment figures, 10.2% and 17.5%, respectively, does not jibe with so robust numbers.


On Nov 21 10:56 AM TeresaE wrote:

> Now for the $64,000 question:
>
> How much of this "exporting" is nothing more than sending pieces
> to China for them to do final assembly and ship back to us? (a lot)
>
>
> How much is assembled here with CHINESE parts? (a lot)
>
> These numbers are so bogus. Unless you live in manufacturing and
> see the truth, you have no idea how far corrupted our "export" and
> GDP has become.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

I wish I could move markets. I'm just the messenger. Not to own gold at this moment is illogical.


On Nov 20 11:17 PM kbear2 wrote:

> This guy is full into Gold and Silver. He is only pushing this view
> to enhance his own holdings as most of these "analysts" do.
> Wake up people.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Tekatl, you offered great points, too. Thanks. There are only so many items you can include in one article. BTW, G.19 Federal Reserve reports show in Q4 2007, there was $.5 trillion in wealth destruction and in 2008 $11.8 trillion in wealth destruction. So, we are taking Japanese size losses it's that our unraveling only started in July 2007. It's early...


On Nov 20 06:13 PM Tekatl wrote:

> Marvin, great work. A couple things I would like to add
>
> We are in a depression and headed into more of a japanese economic
> rut than most think, some of the below are cut and pastes directly
> from my blog and yes to the other posts, there are always 2 sides
> of the fence and what side of the fence you decide to be on will
> reap great rewards:
>
> 1. Protectionism through Weak Dollar exacerbating the "Great" Recession:
> the weak dollar is of course not a tariff or a restrictive quota,
> but the US Fed has been systematically decreasing the dollar, which
> is impeding global free trade.
>
> 2. (Wrote in September) In the 80's, Japan's financial markets and
> real estate market created a bubble much like our bursted bubble
> today. Although we are not having to issue 100 year bonds and US
> citizens are not acquiring foreign skyscrapers and other forms of
> real estate around the world, at our real estate apex much like Japan's,
> real estate values were over-valued creating their bubble, where
> trillions were wiped out. Sound familiar? Although we have not lost
> trillions(yet), we have not fully felt the repercussions of the easy
> credit which we are feeling in our residential real estate, but not
> quite yet in our commercial sectors, which means our bubble is still
> half full. Whenever there is easy credit, there is increased risk
> taking and an increase in the likelihood for default. Furthermore,
> with increasing bank regulations, loan officers and the investment
> community are having a hard time finding profitable investments and
> consumers are starting to increase their savings at a time when the
> economy really needs their old spending habits. As these savings
> rates increase and people fear the safety of their banks, who already
> give little incentive to save with the bank with low interest rates,
> compared to burying a can in the backyard or under the mattress,
> the government started to subsidize those failing banks and businesses.
> Sound like AIG, Citi, BOA, Merrill or familiar? Yes, well this was
> Japan back then. Alarming? It should be because they called this
> period of time "the lost decade". The Nikkei bottomed out around
> 7600, we hit a bottom of 7000. Furthermore, we are stuck at the moment
> when Japan started their unsuccessful quantitative easing policy
> creating their "lost decade", where they tried to artificially create
> inflation. In addition, this is what the news is talking about when
> they are talking about the United States being the next carry trade.
> Furthermore, Japan is still stuck in deflation or stagflationary
> economy, where the Nikkei 225 is stuck at half its peak value. The
> main reasons for this deflated "lost decade" are bubbles in equities
> and real estate.
> During the "lost decade", the banks continued to lend to companies
> and individuals that continued to invest in real estate, when the
> values dropped, these loans went unpaid and banks delayed the decision
> to collect on the collateral in hopes that asset prices would improve,
> escalating deflation. In addition, these banks were unable to lend
> more money until their cash reserves were built up to cover potential
> bad loans. This is where TARP was helpful for us to some degree.
> TARP was designed to reduce the quantity of these bad loans and to
> increase the funds available for economic growth, kind of like grease
> for the economy. In fear of insolvent banks, Japanese citizens were
> afraid of bank failures increasing their holdings in gold and real
> estate. Interestingly, sounds all too familiar and Japan's economy
> is still in a rut.
> Now, Japan has a dilemma with it's demographic shift, much like our
> "Greying of America" compounded with a decreasing birth rate and
> decreasing wages, exacerbating deflation. Decreasing wages caused
> by retiring, top pay scale, baby boomers being replaced with lower
> pay, contract hire, and part time employees decreasing salaries close
> to 10 percent in the last decade.(This week, the employment numbers
> show a huge spike in Temp Workers, sounds like the last sentence)
>
>
> 3. (wrote last month)The 4th Quarter is all about Retail numbers
> caused by High unemployment, currently at 10.2%, was supposed to
> hit 10.2 percent in the Q2 2010, so has much further to go. Current
> survey that most are looking on buying things for themselves. Retailers
> numbers will be affected by the dilemma of Margins vs Volume. companies
> are having to rely on volume at the cost of margin. I'd rather take
> margin anyday over profit, but retailers have to go the volume route
> now causing deflationary pressures on consumer goods and remember
> in #2, harder for japanese companies to make a profit. As in Japan,
> will prices drop as demand drops and form a supply glut causing,
> in their case, a deflationary spiral, where business were unable
> to make enough profit, no matter how low they set their prices. Let's
> hope not, they just "celebrated" their 20th anniversary of economic
> stagnation. As Nouriel Roubini stated this week, their is a carry
> trade bubble forming, the Japanese Yen was and still is a carry trade
> preferred. Now, investors have another option, the US Dollar.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Ah, the days of bread and circuses...


On Nov 20 05:41 PM TraderMark wrote:

> Good post Marvin. People like their lists so a "top 10" list is appropriate
> as we distract the Roman masses with games :)

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Yes, an imbalance in wealth distribution is a factor in economic contraction.


On Nov 20 11:09 AM Mike from NYC wrote:

> One additional topic I'd like to add:
>
> 11. The wealth and income imbalance. Never since the days prior to
> the passage of legislation creating the income tax and the estate
> tax has there been such an imbalance of the rich vs. the rest of
> us. Only a few years ago the top 10% owned more than 70% of the wealth
> but in more recent reports it has been stated that the Top 1% own
> almost 90% of the wealth.
>
> The Forbes 400 reported that the 400 richest Americans own a combined
> $1.4 TRILLION - that is .0013% of the population.
>
> It is my belief that wealth and income balances will eventually destabilize
> our government as the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. <br/>
>
> What do you think?

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

I would compare this depression to the US 1836 transcontinental inspired bubble and France's 1720 Mississippi Bond episode.


On Nov 20 06:03 AM supose wrote:

> There have been several depressions and these seem to have clear
> and unique markers:
>
> 1. Depressions are proceeded by an unprecedented (at the time) credit
> bubble
>
> 2. Depressions result in deflation, especially with respect to financial
> assets reflecting the future decline in hard assets
>
> 3. The financial markets collapse as a consequence of deflation and
> a resultant flight to safety
>
> 4. Depressions have secular impacts across many industries
>
> 5. Depressions are global
>
> 6. Unemployment rises dramatically in many regions
>
> Given these markers, I believe we are in a depression and in uncharted
> waters due to the level of government debt relative to our future
> debt repayment capacity. Inflation seems like a natural consequence.
> I'm not sure I appreciate what this means for our society but some
> form of secular change is likely to occur.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Thanks, Mark.


On Nov 19 02:17 PM Mark Bern wrote:

> j-dub - You've got a healthy sense of humor, buddy. We're all going
> to need it for as long as it takes to get the politics of this great
> nation heading back in the right direction. I don't mean that the
> correct direction is to the right. I mean, simply put, that we need
> to head more toward the moorings of our Constitution.
>
> To the Author: Excellent article! All points well articulated. It
> is the existence of people like you that give us all hope! Keep up
> the good work.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

I hope that you're right and that I'm wrong. But, no one thought in 1930 that entire decade would become a washout.


On Nov 19 02:11 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> As a person who has become financially independent SOLELY through
> investing let me add a few things
>
> Ill give you 158 billion reasons why we will have no depression<br/>
>
> Mr warren Buffett the only person to ever earn over 150 billion for
> he and his investors allocating capital has told you it is not happening
>
>
> Want more proof. none of the big shorts like paulson Rogers Soros
> chanos kass are shorting financials here like they were
>
> Want more proof Chinese economy would fold if america's 12 trillion
> dollar econmy just died out or even went back drastically
>
> Fact is you can continue to get debt as long as someone is willing
> to back you
>
> China will back us but at what price?
>
> Forget all this depression crap.not happening
>
> what happened last year wa sa massive deleveraging